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Great! So am I - another smart user tinkering with the platform can only help the community. There's another "hidden secret" about NT8 that I'll mention since we are on the topic. Although they don't have a mobile platform so to speak, CQG does have their web-based interface. Doesn't hold a candle to ThinkOrSwim's mobile app, but nice to have. If you are using NT brokerage with Continuum(CQG) data, you can request NT to enable your account for mobile access. Now, you can't be logged into the data feed on both your PC and your phone simultaneously (one will kick you out of the other). But you can monitor and modify your orders remotely in this manner if you wish. Any order you modify or place through CQG mobile gets an additional commission added on top. If you never modify or place and order through the web, there's no extra fee. This is not something I use much, but it's there. Also nice to have as a disaster-recovery option.
Weeelll. My 3 positions were all stopped out in the market gyrations last week. I gave back about 4R in the process. Not happy about that. Looking at it as a learning experience. A tricky balance - locking in the win, vs leaving money on the table, vs giving too much back.
Since I'm totally flat and we're starting a new month, thought I'd give an update on my PnL.
At the start of 2018 I increased my focus and this has resulted in more activity, which is what was intended. I just need to continue taking decent entries, but do a better job of locking in gains on the trades that work well. I think it's better to leave some on the table than give a bunch back. I will add a little more data collection to my process - recording entry setup categories and MFE.
I have no concept of what is reasonable to expect from this style of swing-trading. I'd like to show a gain every quarter, despite varying market conditions, and do significantly better than buy and hold over the long run.
The market seems to be in a new phase - one that is a little more difficult to trade. More head-fakes, choppiness, volatility. I will need to adapt if I want to make it through spring with more profits.
On to the markets:
US Equities (ES shown here)
As discussed last week, we got our trip over 2775, followed by a dip below 2750. But instead of rocketing higher, it continued to sell off. We could be in a range now, or we could be getting ready for a drop to the 200 day MA. Either way, shorting the 2750 area would be suitable. If the market decides to try 2775 again, maybe the bulls are back in control, but until then, I think we have to sell the rips.
20yr Notes (TLT)
Despite shaking me out of my short position, this is one of the cleaner charts right now. We are at solid long term support. I'd like to see another clear defense of 118 to take a swing long. Or a clear break-down/pull-back to take a short.
GBP/USD 6B
My reservations about the 6B long position from last week proved justified. We made a lower low and I took the loss. The overall uptrend is still in tact and I'll be looking for a base / bottoming action before deciding whether to take a long. I am still concerned that the uptrend since early 2017 is overdue for a break, in which case the short side becomes interesting. In the interest of being nimble in this environment, and entertaining more entries that are based on the failure of a more obvious pattern, I will also keep an eye out for weakness at the top of the current channel, for a pre-entry on the short side anticipating the possible breakdown.
EUR/USD 6E
Similar story here, but looking stronger than GBP. Market dipped below 1.22 and immediately found buyers. Do they have what it takes to carry through 1.25? Same plan - look for a long opportunity with minimal risk. If it fails at 1.25, take a gamble that the trend from 2017 is ready to break.
Crude Oil CL
After failing to re-test the highs, the CL chart lookes considerabely weaker on the daily. Weekly chart still holds its long term S/R. To try a long for new highs, we need to see sustained accumulation over 63. Until then, I think the case is there for a short anticipating a test lower to 58 or 56.
Gold GC
Another tough chart. Once again dip buyers came in at 1300 to save gold from a continued drop. Very long term, I still like the long side with a touch of 1400 some time later this year. However right now, with yet another failed attempt at holding over 1350, I am looking closely at the open air on the short side down to around 1275. I'd be inclined to take a short against strength. in the 1335 area. If somehow we can hold 1350 for a bit, I'd look at a breakout long. But the dip-buy play is down in the 1275 area, if we get there.
Got into a few trades this week. They were looking good but got zapped back to square one on Friday after NFP. The fact is that a lot of the markets I'm looking at seem to be moving in similar patterns / directions right now. And I am taking some setups that are counter to the larger trend. And although my recently adjusted entry style (not entering with limit orders, I'm entering only with stop orders, buying strength and selling weakness) has helped me stay out of some bad trades, it is also getting me somewhat worse price position as a necessary sacrifice for confirmation. If these trades do not work, I will simply learn from them and move on.
I wish I'd been doing this long enough to not allow encroaching doubt during every brief dry spell. Most of the time, trading isn't all cognac and cadillacs. Most of the time it's just work. So here I am, back at the table for another weekly update.
Active Positions:
CL
Short ~61.79 on 3/7/18
CL was having trouble finding buyers to keep it above 63. As planned, I waited for a little weakness to show and shorted from about 61.79. Looked OK for a couple days but shorts got spooked pretty good on Friday. I may need to pull the plug if strength continues. I am noting however that volume was not exceptional for the Friday run up. Trying not to spook myself, for now.
6B
Short 1.3848 on 3/8/18
Same kind of thing here. The uptrend has been in place for a while, and the bounce off major support looks pretty obvious. Maybe the obvious play will pan out, and maybe I'm crazy for trying to trade counter to it. But the action south of 1.40 just looks weak to me. Still looks weak, although my entry is now back to even after showing some decent profit. Wait and see for now. If it works out, the payoff from all the dip-buyers scrambling to the exits should be significant. If I'm wrong, it's the cost of doing business, so we move on.
GC
Short 1322.9 on 3/8/18
My plan was to wait for GC to meet resistance, and try to grab a short in the 1335 area. Unfortunately, the reaction at that level was quite strong, and my entry style put me in a little lower than that around 1323. Not much to say at this point - we'll see what happens.
OTHER MARKETS
US Equities YM / ES / NQ (Showing NQ Here)
The disparity between the NQ and the other indexes is significant. I'll keep my analysis brief for now. Simply put, I will think about buying if NQ returns to the scene of the crime or anywhere near it.
TLT (20yr Notes)
This market continues to base. I am entertaining a long position if it shows strength above 119. Other than that, I'll wait for a breakdown and short a pullback if we get one.
I'll skip 6E this week as I'm already in a position on the GBP, and the market is not sufficiently uncorrelated. Although it is behaving a little stronger, and if I do stop out of 6B, I may start looking at 6E for a long position.
I did not do my weekly analysis last week, and so I had to sit out the whole week. That's the rule - do your prep, take your trades. Don't do your prep, do nothing. Snooze, lose. Back on track this week.
My short in CL went in my favor a little over 1R before turning around for a loss. I should have gotten out for a BE, but again ... didn't do my prep. Wasn't ready for it. My short in GC was also doing nicely before reversing and taking me out at BE. I was watching this one a little more closely because I either needed to close the trade or roll over. The only bright spot is that I did NOT take a long entry in NQ - it just continued to look weak, so I never bought. The bad news is there was a really nice short opportunity there that I did not get due to lack of preparation.
OK, back to flat. Still wondering about introducing a reversion tactic into my swing trading playbook - which seems a little thin to be honest. I am trying to reframe the first branch in my decision tree when looking for swing setups.
Instead of my current simplistic approach: "Which direction is this chart likely to thrust, and from where to where? OK, let's look at the structure and plan a potential entry in that direction"
Maybe: "Is this chart
a) poised to make a thrust, either
a1) about to break from a prolonged consolidation, or
a2) pulled back from a trend leg and ready to resume?
a3) or mid-thrust and has room to continue? Or is this chart
b) coming off the end of a thrust and likely to retrace or chop for a week or so, or
c) is this chart in an established choppy indecision zone, where moves that attempt to break free are more likely to revert?"
Now, based on a1, a2, b, or c, I decide appropriate tactics or to not trade at all. The reality is that most charts will lend themselves to more than one of the above possibilities at the same time. So it's really a matrix of possibilities and tactics.
6E
The 6E has been pulling back for a while, in a prolonged indecision mode. But it still qualifies as an a2 and it seems worthwhile to prepare for a possible move higher. I will look for higher lows on the H4 and daily as a sign that supply is drying up before entering. There are those looking at the monthly resistance and wave counts etc. and expecting this to break lower. That is absolutely possible. It's also possible it will test one side or the other in a fakeout before the real move. But I can't second guess my way into indecision. Will just keep an eye on the action and if I do get in, keep risk under control. I haven't drawn the break-Down possibility on this chart, but I will certaintly look to a potential short if it starts slipping below 1.23
6B
6B is leading a charge higher after breaking out of its flag formation. So it's an a3, transitioning from "poised to thrust" toward "ready to pause." But a runner can just keep running. It is now reaching a territory that was met with heavy selling the last time it reached there. On the buy side I'd like to see a little pause here but no significant selling. There will be profit taking and short interest as we meet resistance, but if 6B is going to make another run to 52-week highs, buyers should be stepping in the whole time to keep the market around 1.4200. SO if the action continues to look healthy, I could put on some risk in anticipation of a breakout higher. However, if we see lots of profit taking and short interest with no new demand stepping in, this thing may be headed to 1.3800 or even lower. Will be watching both sides.
GC
This chart could fit a lot of different categories. But we have to call it a choppy, indecisive mess, above all. But layered inside that choppy mess, is another bullish story that may mean this is actually poised to break higher. We've come here before, and turned lower. But you have to like the bullish defense of 1300 on strong volume last week. I'd like to see a little relaxation into the 1340 area before another push to test the highs. Tactically, It wouldn't be crazy to fade 1375-1400 on the short side (leaning toward the choppy mean-reversion mode). That is a tough trade for me to take, against the bullish tilt, but I will also keep that angle in the back of my mind.
TLT (20yr Notes)
You could call this a pullback within a broader downward move. Or you could cal this the start of a new upward move. So we can play it a couple of ways. If price moves down a bit, and demand remains strong enough to keep price propped up, then there is a good case for a few more points of easy upside in this move... whether it's a pullback or a new up swing. Alternatively, we can wait for price to come up to the next major resistance, and look for a short entry there. Additionally, if price shows weakness and starts to break lower, we can chase it for another leg. The assumption here is that we aren't just going to mean-revert around 119.0 for the next couple weeks. In that scenario, these strategies may lose money. But I don't think this chart qualifies as a choppy indecisive mess just yet...
CL
CL is moving very nicely. It's clearly an a3, started it's move last week, and has room to run if it can break to new ATH. It's close enough that it almost seems inevitable. I'd try to hop on if it retraces to the low 64s or makes a little cup anywhere in here to launch off of. Otherwise we way till around 70 for a logical place to fade, or a failed break and drop below 63 for a dump, which seems unlikely but you never know.
US EQUITIES - (Showing ES Here)
Obviously this market is moving in a clear direction lower, but the question is whether it's ready to take a breather, now that it's touched the 200 again. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few days pause, making this a b) and we would wait for a pullback to pretty much anywhere and then try a short. But knowing how bear markets go, it will probably just run off without a break, leaving me scratching me head. So I'm going to entertain the notion that this is an a3, mid-thrust, has room to run. And look for low-risk spots to open up a short position pretty much anywhere this week. Are we going to 2500? 2400? Or are we done and ready to rocket higher? No one knows for sure, but the technical outlook reads that there is a measured move in progress with some energy still left to expend. So we go with that for now.
If you've read this far and you're confused, I don't blame you. Sometimes as I write these little paragraphs out I have no idea why I am seeing the chart one way and not another. Every chart is like that optical illusion with the old-hag sillhouette and the beautiful-lady sillhouette in the same image.
And I continue to take entries that are buying strength or selling weakness ... this will cause me grief in choppy markets, but it also keeps me out of trouble a fair amount as well. I will just keep doing what I'm doing and try have money on the table when the markets eventually start to go my way again.
...or when I start going the market's way again.
OK, Spring is here, catching up again on the weekly look at the markets. First an update on last weeks activity:
ES Short on 3/27 ~2652
I took a short position in the S&P via ETF SDS, from around the equivalent of ES 2652. This trade was up almost 3R yesterday, but has since retraced. I'm holding on for dear life as I'm sure it will buck around quite a bit. We'll see how that goes. ES retraced back to the 200d MA. NQ bounced hard off of its 200d MA, which is probably going to keep the general markets at bay for at least a little while here. Having a short in the indexes currently in profit, I can see why those with a bit of a cynical and misanthropic streak in them can tilt toward shorting... There is an odd sense that comes with rooting for things like more tradewar sabre-rattling to encourage the market down.
CL Long on 3/28: ~65.10
Profit: -1R
I took a long swing trade in CL last Wednesday after the inventory report, looking for a breakout - it resulted in a very quick loss that same day. I have had OK entries after the inventory report before--not sure if I will repeat the technique, but this time was a total failure. Took out longs and shorts on both sides of 65 and 64. We've come back into a nice spot to perhaps try another long entry, so I'll keep an eye on it from here. If trade war talk dies down, CL could start jamming again.
On to other markets. I'm going to skip GC today to save time - gold still looks messy. I think you need to have a multi-month horizon to make a reasonable play on gold now, which would require too large a stop for me. I'll check back on it another time.
TLT
20yr Notes have followed the technical plan almost to a T. I was very close to pulling the trigger on a long entry around 19.50... had it loaded and ready to go, but somehow didn't pull the trigger. The setup was a pure breakout and I passed it up. Now TLT has risen up to an obvious resistance area where I will be watching to see if we start to turn for a down leg.
6E
If you follow the logic of "volatility tends to cycle between expansion and contraction" then 6E is ripe to start rocking and rolling any day now. But at the moment it is a total snooze. I'm just not inclined to pay much attention until it starts whipping around a bit more. Past few days have been small range and low volume with the Easter holiday. Let's see what happens now that everyones getting back to business. The broader uptrend is still in tact but the longer we continue this flat period the worse it gets. If we get a test lower, I'll watch closely to see how well demand comes in to push back up.
6B
I really want to believe 6B is ready to make another leg higher to 1.50. I probably should just trust the trend. Demand has been pushing price up for another test of 1.44. I colored the circle RED but I'm really not sure what will happen if we continue to march toward 1.44. It's probably a coin flip but I'd give a hair's edge to another trip into the 1.30s before the market is ready to rock higher again. I can't quantify that judgement, so basically I'm going to try and ignore it. Right now on the daily we have a deep retracement forming a sort of higher-low potentially. I will keep an eye for the higher low pattern to continue, and once I get a read on strength / weakness, I will go from there. No clear plan at the moment.
Im traveling most of the remainder of the month. Will take the time to wind down for a few weeks and regroup. I was shaken out of my ES short for breakeven. And took another 1R hit in a CL long. I am still clinging to a short in Bonds.
Alright you son of a motherless goat! Time to get your ass back in the saddle. Just talking to myself here. It's been a couple months break from the weekly journal and bringing it back here just in time for the summer doldrums. I need to switch a few things up, so here goes with a short recap.
I have been swing trading micro-futures and ETFs with an average risk per trade of about 300 bucks. My current goal is to eventually swing minis and leave ETFs behind, with risk in the low thousands per trade. It has been somewhat challenging mapping futures charts onto the risk profiles of ETFs and tracking pnl of both together. I have a fancy spreadsheet that helps me correlate the future to the ETF and calculate risk, entry points, etc. But it is some tedious work to get everything on the same page.
To simplify the process of journaling and tracking, going forward I will not take the time to reconcile the futures charts and ETFs when recording trade results. Behind the scenes I'll still be trading micros and ETFs, but here I'll post analysis of the futures only. This way when I eventually progress to minis, I've already got the method down, and it's simpler.
Tactically, I have decided I need to add another entry style back into my playbook. I have been primarily taking lower-TF breakout entries, which sometimes gives me an unfavorable position. I will be considering fade entries that give me a better price on my positions. But in those entries I will take half of the usual risk. This is because I know I will get shaken out with this approach, and I want to be able to take the same idea two or three times before giving up on it. We'll see how it goes.
I have not ruled out the notion of scaling-in and scaling-out, but for now I will stick with aiao.
It is also possible that I will shorten my holding period somewhat, looking for gains of 2 or 3R, rather than 4+. Will depend case by case.
ES
ES looks strong to me long-term. Since the february low we have had two spike higher-lows. It does look like we could be ready for another as we have ranged here between 2700 and 2740 for two weeks. But the break+hold of 2700 is still the most important technical feature of the daily chart right now. If we take that as continuing to be meaningful, then this should continue to push higher. I believe dip-buyers will come in strong if we get to 2680, so that would be my ideal place for a long entry. I will watch the range and if it looks ready to break up I may take a low-risk entry in the 2720 area this week. The down-side is possible and if we rise to 2740 again and fail again, that would raise my eyebrows a little.
ZB
I am actually still short bonds since my previous post in April. Yup! Unfortunately less than 2 weeks ago that trade was up more than 3R. And now it's almost back to BE. Oh well. A mistake I hope not to repeat. Here we see on the ZB that the weekly chart broke down and back up above support. The current long term path is still down, but I will keep an eye on this week to see how well the recent upswing holds. But it is unlikely I will start looking long until I've dumped my short. The sellers should start showing supply here quick, or else I'll pull the plug on that trade and think about a reversal upward.
CL
Crude had some damage done this week but the year+ uptrend is still intact. Clearly though we have some weakness and more room to fall before I would expect the longer term dip buyers to step in at or above 65.50. I'll be looking at the 69+ area for a short. Volatility is high and possibility that this goes right back up to 72+ is not crazy, so getting a good price with minimal risk is going to be the strategy here.
GC
I don't know if I'll ever figure out how to trade gold, but ima keep tryin. My gut says this thing just doesn't want to go to 1400 anymore. It was tryin, but it couldn't do it. But Gold seems to do whatever, regardless. If ever there was a chart not to trust, this is it. Now that we've plumbed below 1300 and are trying to get back up, I'm tempted in both directions. a short position from 1310 could be the right idea, anticipating another dip below 1300. Or, if it drops down to 1295 and buyers once again hold the level, then the longer term "Up Trend" since Jan 2017 if you can call it that, is in tact and we maybe get a run up to 1325.
6E
Should have planned a holiday in Europe. How the mighty have fallen. The 6E is dropping like a rock. I'd be happy to try a short around 1.1750 or 1.1900. We are at potential support here and in the middle of the 2015 range so it's possible that the party for sellers is somewhat over already here.
6B
Drawing a little hypothetical channel on the weekly, it seems likely that this market will put in some kind of a bounce soon. On the daily it really will be surprising for it to fall fast enough to stay in its current trajectory. We will probably flatten out and waffle around for a while, but I'd still gamble a long for a dead-cat play around 1.3250. Just a thought.
Yeah, this sucks big time. They really could’ve waited with that until I had my trading account funded and converted the balance from EUR in USD just a few short weeks.. but no no, they don’t care. On the bright side, all trading profits are in USD so longterm it should be good for me — much better, actually
Curious if you've been watching the action so far tonight on CL... it's in the zone for a long but I can't shake the feeling that we're gonna see more downside, and the last down move was over a dollar in 10 minutes. I like your 65.50 area idea and have a long order on QM for 1 contract swing. Really like your journal and read on things...
Craig
just a few short weeks.. but no no, they don’t care. On the bright side, all trading profits are in USD so longterm it should be good for me — much better, actually 
I like your 65.50 area idea and have a long order on QM for 1