NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





FM's Trade Log


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one FlyingMonkey with 298 posts (951 thanks)
    2. looks_two Rrrracer with 18 posts (28 thanks)
    3. looks_3 jackbravo with 17 posts (23 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Blue Eagle with 7 posts (19 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one FlyingMonkey with 3.2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Blue Eagle with 2.7 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Rrrracer with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 jackbravo with 1.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 63,666 views
    2. thumb_up 1,115 thanks given
    3. group 39 followers
    1. forum 384 posts
    2. attach_file 762 attachments




 
Search this Thread

FM's Trade Log

  #111 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

I didn't post my remarks on Friday - got pulled into a mess at the office. I did my morning analysis, and watched my scenario play out, but my head wasn't in the game and I didn't take any trades. Rather than post my charts, I'll just put up the psychological musings that I have been running through the past few days.

Thursday's journal entry ended with the question "Who is my opponent and why do I keep making decisions that make him happy?"

As I have pondered this question, two clear answers on who my opponent is: The first obvious one is "other market participants." The other obvious one (and I think the more significant) is "myself", or more specifically "the part of me that has certain motivations that are counterproductive to profitable trading."

Both of these entities are somewhat abstract and hard to crystallize.

Other market participants: the masses, the collection of trading agents all with different time frames and different outlooks and varying levels of expertise. Trying to trade with this opponent in mind can seem not unlike the Princess Bride's Battle of the Wits:
. Clearly I should not put my stop here, because that is exactly where you would think I should put my stop, so I will put it there, but then, you know that I am a thinking man, of course I would put my stop there, so clearly I should put my stop over there, and so on... you can do the same thing with picking entry locations, targets, all of it. It seems over-complicated. Today I thought the market would go down. It did. A good trader can make money off of that. A bad trader can't. Tomorrow I think the market will go down. It doesn't. A bad trader can lose a lot of money off of that. A good trader will not. Figure it out. Take this intimidating, diverse and complicated opponent, and simplify him, reduce him, solve him, so that you can know his weak points and exploit them.

Myself: I believe that I have put too much personal weight on the outcome of my trading. There is a part of me that wants so much to succeed at this, that it engages emotional behavioral triggers--it is hard to put into words. I think I can put it better perhaps with some sports analogies.

In baseball's world series game 7, there was a rain delay before the last inning and the teams went back to their lockers. In the Cubs locker room reportedly one of the team members rallied everyone together for a meeting and just "reminded them who they all were." He said to them that, win or lose, they were there to have fun and play the best they can. I'm guessing he also said that, when they play with that attitude, there is no one who can beat them. It worked.

I really, really enjoy trading. Even when I am struggling, I come back to it. I love the markets, studying them, watching them, and challenging myself to master them. When it clicks, it is magic. But I don't always trade like I enjoy it. I often trade anxiously, sometimes fearfully.

I don't know if there is a commercial like this, but there probably is. If not, Nike should make one. Wide shot on Kobe Bryant playing a huge game. He's got the ball with 15 seconds left, the lakers are down 2. The crowd is chanting "Beat LA! Beat LA!". Spike Lee is yelling at him "Choke!" from the sidelines. The long armed defender in front of him is swatting at the ball to force an error. All the cameras are on him. Close up on his face. His eyes. He looks over at Spike, looks at the crowd, the blubbering children, and they all disappear one by one. He sees the double team coming at him, the triple team, and a little half smile creeps up on his face, and one by one all the other players on the floor disappear. There's no more stands, there's no more hardwood court. The lights go down. It's concrete. Kobe is outside. Wide angle on a dark outdoor court in a quiet park, Kobe's all alone. There's just two tattered strands of net dangling from the rim. There's a flash light propped up on a park bench shining on the backboard so he can see it. One cross over, two cross overs, he isn't wearing his sneakers any more, he isn't wearing his jersey any more. He's 11 years old. He's wearing a Jordan jersey and a pair of Airs. He hops back and pulls up for three, smiling as it releases. The announcer goes berserk. Grown men are crying. And Kobe's just laughing. He's having fun, and it's only a game.

I'm not sure what any of this means or how to use it. But you hear it all the time in sports, and it must relate to all performance-based professions in general. Take it one game at a time. Loosen up. Swing freely. Keep your head in the zone. Just go out there and have fun. One of my trade "rules", which are more like daily reminders, is to "Remember what's at stake." The idea being to elevate the importance of what I'm doing so as not to slip up and make stupid mistakes, to diligently follow my plan, etc. But maybe ... Maybe it's time to throw that rule out. Maybe it's time to FORGET what's at stake. Kobe never saw an open shot he didn't like. It was his strength and his weakness, to the very end. And coach gave Kobe the ball in clutch scenarios even to the bitter end because he knew Kobe had ice-water in his veins. No one was as mentally ready to take that shot than Kobe. And Kobe didn't think about losing the game, or missing the shot. He just found an opening and tossed it up. A zillion shots later, he came out on top enough times to have a legacy of winning. And when he missed that shot, as he often did, he usually smiled, shook his head at himself, and took the next one.

I don't know what rituals I can perform, what witch doctor I can go to to get my head on straight, but am looking forward to trying. And looking forward to continuing to read all the other journals of folks running through similar struggles and posting their thoughts on how to approach and conquer these challenges, and succeedding at it.

Here's to having fun trading. Here's to loosening up and trading relaxed. Here's to taking the open shots, and shooting the lights out.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Online prop firm The Funded Trader (TFT) going under?
Traders Hideout
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
60 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
37 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
24 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
22 thanks
The Program
19 thanks
  #112 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

My strategy for rolling the clocks this fall was to drink as much beer as possible on Saturday night, throwing my entire system into a state of confusion. It seems to have worked, and I was able to get to sleep at a normal hour, and wake up without too much issue.

Looking at a nice clean retracement channel that hit a brick wall overnight at $45. We sit below ETH VWAP right now and my bias will be somewhat to the short side,expecting a break of ON_Low, gap fill and traversal back to $44.



I took a short, slipped a few ticks on my entry. This is the first pre-open trade I've taken in a while. I've seen the open run by me a lot over the last couple weeks. Figured I'd try positioning myself ahead.




Scaling in one more. Could bring stop in a bit... hanging tight for now.



Taking one off on the first push lower. Pulling stop in. Will look to add back in if we bounce a bit and stall.



Let it ride, didn't add. I knew that the target location was silly - obviously ON_Low and the top of the gap was going to give some support. I just didn't think the bounce would be that gnarly. Came 4 ticks from my target and then rocketed.



Giving that back was definitely not worth the 4 ticks. Well, live and learn. Still a +16 in the PnL column. Something's better than nothing. Pick a better target next time. Maybe get into another contract so I can extract more from the trade. That's it for me today. Kids are up bright and early of course. Whoever invented this clock-shifting stuff (Ze Germans!) definitely didn't have small children.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #113 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289


08
==
Created Tuesday 08 November 2016

Retracement channel UP still in tact. $45 broke and then gave in again overnight. I am tempted to play this morning out very similarly to yesterday. Get short early on a bet that we don't jump back over $45.




But let's take a closer look here. Yesterday's late-morning bounce had some real fire in it, and so did last night's drop. At Y_Close we had a nice long consolidation with a significant volume traded between 44.75 and 45. We can see that price took a stab at 45.25, dropped back down, and then took a stab at 44.50, and popped back up. Given the attention to the election today, and lack of major scheduled news, it's entirely possible that we range today, making attempts to break those two extremes, but never actually making it, always drfiting back to the center around 44.85.



This idea of playing for reversions today sounds right to me. We're still in a retracement uptrend, underneath major weight from the larger downtrend. Combined with low participation on election day, I think we have a highly mixed set of market agendas lending itself to sideways action. I'm going to try taking trades in the outer bands playing for a return to VWAP.

I've taken along just after the open. We had a steady drop off from VWAP. It's not looking pretty right now, but I've taken some information risk here and it's in line with my bias. Stop placement: 2. With trend: 1. News / Prep: 2. Room to run: 1. Price over Info: 2. Give the entry an 8.




Hmm... maybe I overthought this one. My first idea of shorting pre-open was right. This one is about to self-destruct. I'm in for another lot at minimal additional risk near my dead stop.




Took one off on a fortunate bounce, taking some risk out of this trade.




Well, I managed the sinking ship in a way that left me only dropping 11 ticks on the trade. I'll take it, even though I gave back a lot of ticks in the end as it did come within 8 ticks of VWAP while I wasn't watching. And Unfortunately, I think this is now shaping up to be a spot I'd really like to take a long . . . and I just got out of a long. There's something wrong with that picture.




YEP . . . Here's the zoom out showing why after I exited, things started to look really good for the long side. Circled is where I stopped out on my last long and I started to see price firming up at the channel bottom. I am having an issue keeping my focus up around 7AM (10 EST), and as a result I'm also having an issue with taking the second trade of the day (not all of this is focus - some of it is fear of a second trade losing).




In summary, both my ideas today were good ones. The short pre-open would have been a winner. And the mean-reversion idea busted on the first try even though I could have managed it for a small gain, but the second attempt could have worked. Overall though, there are some positives to the day, namely that I was able to manage my way out of a trade that was 1 tick from being a total loss... Even if I did give back some gains on it in the end. My morning schedule continues to be an issue - I need to be miliatiristic with my time management. Maybe code up a audio-indicator so I can do other things without constantly going back to look at the chart.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #114 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

The long term Hourly chart looks pretty miserable after $46 proved a very hard sell.



Although we look extended now to the downside in terms of daily ATR, I'm going to pass on this counter-trend potential bounce Long off of 44.50



I'm in short here. The morning basing pattern does look ominously bullish, like one of @Inletcap 's catapults maybe. That's one significant negative on this trade, which I'm ignoring because the entry location and R/R looks good. Stop placement: 2. Info risk: 2 Room to run: 1. news / prep: 1 (woke up late, out of rhythm). With trend: 2. Give the entry an 8.



Here's a look zoomed out on the 5000 tick. Have ETH_VWAP, Channel Boundary, and OR_TOP and round # $45 between me and my stop.



Not adding to this trade, as the action continues to look bullish with higher highs piling up. I'm taken out of the trade pretty quickly here for -18. Note the bullish higher lows all morning after 44.50 challenged and held.



So, the first thing I did this morning was knowingly pass up a long opportunity. I did that because it was countertrend, but there's something I need to remember here. I am OK with countertrend trades, but I need to be more certain about the TYPES of countertrend trades I will take. One great filter to allow countertrend trades is over-extension. This morning's market had already dumped over a hundred ticks overnight. That is a good time to say "If I see a countertrend opportunity I will take it." So I feel like today's trade wasn't necessarily a bad trade on its own. It had a shot, especisally if I had given it more rope. But the first opportunity was a better one.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #115 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

30 minutes to the open, here's the RTH 60min. Market is trading pre-market at 43.75, right on the edge of this support area.




I'll look for a basing pattern to enter long here between 43.80-43.50 as the market is once again over-extended heading into the open. If we get a run-up and pause at 43.95 I will look for weakness to short there.

Over the past week I've once again had more losses than gains. But my mindset has been good. I've been clear headed and pretty objective as I've navigated my decisions. In this clear head one thing that I've started to see "for what it is" is that my time management issues in the morning that prevent me from fully focusing on the task at hand are an unnecessary performance blocker.

I've started to think seriously about waking up an additional 30 minutes earlier and allowing myself to focus more intently on the pre-market action before my family wakes up.

I've also started thinking about the potential benefits of lowering my target horizon just a little bit to encourage more than one trade per day. Scalping is hard, and CL is no easy beast to tame, but it doesn't need to be a drastic shift in my strategy. Just a little more nimble-ness in my trade management.

I'm going to give the earlier-wake-up thing a shot. I'm also going to stop posting snapshots mid-trade, again helping me keep my eyes on the action. I may not even post each trade individually. Just a shot of the finished morning with trade markers and any comments.

It's 6:20 am pacific now, and I hear small voices asking for things, so I'm going to stop for the day. But I already took a trade early. Nothing spectacular, but it's a winner. I'll take the +8. I was going for 43.94 target and so I gave some gains back, and missed the flip short.


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #116 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

Not much exciting to report this week. I'm settling into an earlier morning routine which lets me put more attention onto the market, but have yet to make anything good happen in that pre-open action. Had a few impulse trades on Monday that were annoying losses to start off the week with. Watched, but stayed out on Tuesday. And had another string of small losses Wednesday and today. The Wednesday loss was OK - it was a good trade, I executed it well, and it just didn't work. Today's trade, which I posted over in TSJ, I was shaken out of before it rocketed in my direction. Some lessons learned, moving forward. I'm getting thrown a bit off my game at the moment, but I'll get it back on track.



I remember once reading in another forum the opinion that there's more value in reviewing winning trades than losing trades. I kind of agree. There are infinite ways to screw up, what's the point of counting them all one at a time? And the risk of cycling back through legitimate losers and picking them apart for no reason is not worth it. I think it's good to review losers quickly, decide if you did something wrong, or if it just is what it is, and move on. Just being able to do that quickly is a sign that you have a method that you understand and generally follow. Take every opportunity to reinforce the good. Spend the time there.

I can say one thing for sure - I am all for transparency, but I want the next trades I post here to be some really good ones! I'll pour over those for hours.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #117 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

18
==
Created Friday 18 November 2016

Despite the strong overnight bounce back above 46, my bias today is short. If the buyers can't retake 46.50, then sellers will push the market below 46 for a retest of the ON_Low. I will change my tune if we get strong buying pressure into the 46.50 level.



Double tapped this one, but it worked.



A look at the market through 11:30E.



This trade was only 14 ticks but it was a good little winner to take some sting out of the week and end on an up note. Let's count the things I did right here.

I started out with a concise statement about where the battleground levels are, and which side I believed had the immediate upperhand. I also stated what conditions would need to arise for me to change that conviction.

I then waited patiently through a lot of chop for some signs that my thesis was right. When buyers pushed up to 46.25 for the second time and gave it right back, that was the first shoe. When price raced down to 46 and snapped it, that was the other shoe.

I could have still been wrong, of course, but the little pullback into 46 was too good to pass up. I got shaken out, but then the best part - I jumped back in and took the win.

Hadouken!


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #118 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

05
==
Created Monday 05 December 2016


I built a new rig over thanksgiving weekend, complete with single giant 32-inch 2K monitor. In testing out ninjatrader8, I have been using remote desktop so that I can have a single instance running in my office, and remote in from the kitchen laptop as needed for flexibility. I ran into some issues with threading the chartcontrol objects when using remote desktop (NT crashes), so I've had to work around this bvy removing those indicators. Because of this instability, I'm using a couple days this week to test in sim and get everything situated. Also, because of the huge monitor and the fact that I'm up before the crack of dawn, I've switched to dark charts (something I never really liked before) - 32 inches of 2K white backgrounds at 4 in the morning is not great on the eyes. I am surprisingly digging the way line drawings pop against the dark background.

Lately I try not to post trade results / charts when I am in Sim. However, since I've been away for a bit, I'll post one today as it has some teachable characteristics that I'd like to come back to.

Usually the way I set out before the trading morning starts is I get a jist of the current trajectory of the market over the past few days, and compare that with the overnight trajectory, to come up with some idea for bias on the day. Today was an example of a situation where the market has been pushing higher with a lot of strength, but I wanted to entertain a counter-trend short bias. When is this a good idea? Well, it was a good idea this morning in the pre-market for a few reasons.

1. Hitting up against a trendline. This is just about symmetry and the tendency of a market to mean-revert after strong pushes. Could it continue to melt higher? Sure. But there is a good probability of the market taking a rest here.
2. The measured move from the last retrace is more than complete. (42.75 - 49.25, 44.75 - 52.? )
3. The momentum of each followup bounce has been a bit diminished. Note the arc. None of this is a sure thing - but the signs are there that buyers have found a price that is meeting OTF sellers.
4. 52.50 was a major resistance on the last topping sequence in the mid-October timeframe




Furthermore, the overnight trajectory softened from 3:30am Pacific onward. Price started to sputter at 52.25 and that gave me a nice opportunity for a short with a stop north of that round .25.




Took +34 sim ticks on that one. The market tends to seem a lot simpler when I'm trading in sim - SIMpler - and at this phase in my trading I try to use it only for very deliberate training and practice. I don't want to get a false sense that trading is easy - which Sim can impart.

But the "simplicity" is something I continue to strive for in live trading. I am constantly thinking of ways to distill my routine / outlook to an approach that provides clear cut guidelines. Guidelines like "Don't take any countertrend trades unless you can justify it in the ways listed here . . . "

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #119 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289

In an effort to clean up my other charts, I've created a single 5 minute ETH chart with all the RTH / AH session levels on it along with multiple VWAPs + Bands, and OR region highlight. Still need to add a few more levels but already it's over-loaded. I've created a monster! I shall dub thee the double rainbow chart.


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #120 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
Los Angeles CA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT8 & TOS
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks Given: 2,970
Thanks Received: 2,289


15
==
Created Thursday 15 December 2016

Market has been dropping steadily and increased its pitch over night. For this reason, bias has to be primarily short today:




However, (there's always a however) on the long view we see the case for a bounce here around 51.50




So I will consider countertrend long trades if we see bottoming action. Here 25 minutes before the open, it looks like the market wants to come back up and test y_Low / y_Close around 52.00, confluence with ETH VWAP. That's my ideal place to take a short, if we get there. Buyers are still struggling to take back 51.75.

Tactically, here's where my head's at. If we stay below 51.75 or very close to it, and open very choppy, eventually showing bottoming action and trading above OR-top, I'll take a counter-trend long with very tight risk management. If we sustain below 51.50 things could get ugly very fast, and I'll look to jump in short on any pullback that looks tradable. If we trade up toward 52 and start to lose steam, there are some places to get short there.

I'm still rusty after a few weeks of not trading, so I'll be emphasizing patience and whe in doubt SOH.

Well, we dropped, very extended into the open, and predictably now trading above the OR. Hate to say it, but I'm tempted to lock and load for a countertrend long entry if we bounce off OR-top / RTH-VWAP around 51.25.

Ended up taking a little short one lot off 51.50. Prior support, now resistance. Round number. Back to VWAP and out.




Pleased with my market read today. Beautiful action today, wish I could have stayed at the screen for the run up.


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote




Last Updated on March 30, 2020


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts