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Jogsaw Pete says the same. In the thicker products you get obvious steps in the profile forming that the big traders will try and push price through. In the volatile thin products that don't bounce off levels to the tick you get a much more stretched out profile and you really need a chart for seeing the context and the intraday swings.
That is good to know. I like being able to see the changes in volatility/liquidity vs. total volume or directional volume (delta volume) and the interplay between market buyers/sellers and Bid/Ask people that one gets with the "volume per bar" or "delta volume per bar" chart settings along with cumulative delta.
Bad day although I was recovering a little at the end.
I widened my stop a couple times which reduced my loses. Worst case MAE was -17T.
I experienced the following emotions: fear - heart pounding and chest constriction during drawdowns. Anger with myself after I took 4 losses in a row that happened quickly. I felt I had to keep trying and make up for the losses. Gotta make it back right away. "How could the market go against me immediately?" "Why do I keep getting in right at the top?" Those kinds of thoughts.
Replacement thoughts: Step back. Take a picture write down what went on. Admit I want to make it back but wait for a better scenario to develop. Describe the lesson I just learned. Express gratitude for the lesson. Give the lesson a name/title.
1045:02, 2 trades
trade 1: -9T, went against me almost immediately. Hesitation kills.
trade 2: let a small winner become a medium loser,. Hesitation kills.
1054:54, 2 trades
trade 1: -5T In chop, really didn't know what to do, hoping for a win, hesitation kills.
Trade 2: +8T, let it pull back too much. Widened stop 17 MAE. Very risky behavior.
11308:03, 2T
Got in at top, took a large MAE got back to positive. At least I got 2 ticks.
I have written a paper, Analyzing Price Action with Volume Bars. It describes a model I use for describing the forces that act on the market which ultimately move price. There is nothing new here. I haven't come up with any revolutionary system or anything like that. This paper just organizes my thoughts into what I hope is a cogent description of market behavior. It is a four character model with Bids, Asks, market buys and market sells, the interplay between which moves price up and down. I describe the charting that I use to see the action and show some patterns that I have seen. This is not a trading system.
I welcome any and all comments regarding its accuracy, correctness, limitations, etc.
I just noticed this on a higher timeframe (30 minute) chart. PA has been going down since Mar 24 but CD has been either flat or going up. To me, that means the ASKs have been sneaking price down. BIDs weak so it doesn't take many contracts traded to get price to go down. But when market buyers come in there are a lot of ASK's they have to consume before getting price to go up.
What does this mean? Perhaps the big money wants to off load their longs or get short. Or perhaps the big money is setting us up, trying to make the market look weak via downward PA, suck in the weaker hands to go short. Then, when price is low enough, pull the ASKs, start bidding, and unwind their short positions. Then slam the market with market buy orders and jam the price up, causing the weaker hands and scared money (me?) to cover with their stop loss orders, thereby adding fuel to the fire. End result, upward momentum.
1020:16, long 1, -6T, OK entry except late in the run a bit. Exit was poor. Should have respected the 3 down arrows and exited a bit sooner. Felt scared a a bit which is not good. If I had not touched the ATM I would have suffered -9T (ATM -> -9T).
1118:04 - 2 trades, short1 -5T, then short 1 again for +4T
Late entry but not really bad. Hesitated on exit. when PA consolidated I should have exited. But instead I hoped it would come back. At least I tightened my stop and only took 5 tick loss. If I had not touched the ATM I would have had a 9T loss. (ATM -> -9T)Then I tried again and this time I got it. I exited early with +4T. Had I left the ATM alone I would have had +20 T (ATM -> +20T).
All in all, If I had not touched the ATM, I would have netted +2 before commissions. Instead I netted -9T.
1035:59, long 1, -7T
Got out right at the bottom of a swing, got in right at the top of a swing. At least I got the direction right. The ATM, if left alone, would have yielded -9Ticks (ATM-> -9). However if I had left the s/l at -9 and just tightened the tgt, I could have had a positive just by seeing the double top. MFE=13. Violated rule: "Don't let a winner turn into a loser."
1052.02, short 1, +7T
From a rule perspective, I entered early which is an ERROR. But it turned out out to be a great entry and could have netted +20 had I left the ATM alone (ATM -> +20). But at least I made back my loss on the first trade.
Anticipation is important but one must be careful.
Hesitation is a killer.
E-Journal:
Today I was trading scared, not willing to risk my capital. This is a very common occurrence for me. I must accept the fact that I have to "pay the tuition", so to speak, while I'm learning.
We all know that trends don't play out in a straight line. They zig-zag. A larger trend is made up of smaller shorter term trends. But is there any way to quantify the risk? So I looked a recent trend and asked the question: "What if I entered long at the worst possible spot, the top of a zig? How much MAE would I have to endure to ride it out?" On 2016.04.07 from 1309 to 2016.04.08 0800 there was a nice up trend, and so I noted the peak to trough drawdowns from each zig-zag. The investigation yielded these values: 20, 11, 10, 15, 21, 10, 15, 12, 13, 22, 14, 17, 14, 12, 20, 9, 7 (ticks of MAE) The statistics are as follows:
mean 14.4
median 14 std. dev. 4.7
mean+1 std dev 19.1
max 24
min 7
From these statistics I gather that my ATM stop loss of 9 ticks is really quite tight.
Therefore, in order to improve my trading statistics, I must get in sooner than the top of a short term swing or widen my stop loss in order to suffer the MAE.
Hey, I'd like remind everyone about my paper "Analyzing Price Action with Volume Bars". It is a pdf that was posted on March 31. I think you will find it interesting and perhaps even illuminating. Just click on the black box (I have no idea why it is a black box). Your comments and suggestions would be very welcome and appreciated. Thanks.
1016:46 long 1, 0T
There was a move up then a rapid move down; I panicked and got out right away ATM -> +20T. Too much fear of loss.
1226:15, 2 trades, -4T, -4T
Going long both times, but not willing to take the MAE which was within the initial s/l.
Too much rear of loss. Not being consistent.
