CL trades today
|July 14th, 2009, 09:19 PM||#1 (permalink)|
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Favorite Futures: index futures, oil
Posts: 482 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 223 given, 379 received
CL trades today
Just a few from early morning... 2 charts: (1) light gray is a naked bar chart with hand drawn trendlines (TL)... I use this for straight price action (PA) with volume to get a sense of buyers vs sellers and possible sentiment change; (2) I use the dark gray with Bollinger Bands (20, 60, 180, 540), ECO2, Stochastics (7, 20, 60, 180), Square of Nine levels and Volume. I'm thinking of removing the actual ECO2 in panel 2 and the volume from this chart. I must admit that it takes some chart time to get used to the BBs but they are invaluable to me to understand the trends at various time frames.
The trades - what and why:
(1) the high volume from 0942 thru 0945 showed me that buyers were starting to come in... note that the new SL wasn't much below the previous one at 0942... then price moved across the Upper trend line (UTL) and then retested it and bounced with a volume spike. entered Long (eL) 2 at 60.63., a bit of a late entry and took 9 ticks of heat; took 1 off at 60.73; 2nd at .76; missed the next long after the DB / HL at 09:55 that would have been another 10 to 15 ticks;
(2) there were 2 big volume spikes at 09:59 and the lateral move was making higher highs and higher lows so when price tried to come down at 10:01/10:02 but reversed on a vol spike, eL @ 60.83; 1st off at 10 ticks; 2nd stopped out (trailing stop) @ 60.87; missed the Stop and Reverse (SAR); I see this as an SAR because it tried and failed to push thru the UTL and volume spiked... then missed the bounce off the previous SL (DB) and LTL (@ 60.67) which would have yielded another 10 to 15 ticks.
(3) price failed to reach the UTL forming a DT [really a false break (FB) since price exceeded the previous SH @ 60.95 by 2 ticks... got a late eS at 60.83; got 1 off at 10 and stopped out of the 2nd at .80 (my trailing stop was at 5 ticks; I've since modified it to 7 cause I wasn't quick enough to get back in at the LTL break @ 60.67.
(4) price dropped fast to the previous major swing low of 60.47 @ 09:46.
Because the volume started increasing substantially from 10:11 thru 10:12 and then at the DB & SON at 60.40 (10:14), I decided to scalp it (2 AIAO). It bounced to the previous sig SR at 60.67 for 2 x 10 ticks.
These 4 trades of 2 contracts each yielded 73 ticks less $32 commissions ($698) - is that right? - $10 a tick, right? These are very minor moves; scalps really - one by accident - it should have been a longer trade. So.. just in this short time period from 09:45 to 10:16, the missed trades (including the premature stop-out) plus those taken would have resulted in approximately 170 ticks. The "consolidation white dots" entry approach was thoroughly validated.
I missed three or four major moves and still ended up with 150 ticks on the day without much effort, with a very sluggish computer and in spite of spending a lot of time marking up charts and tending to other things. I had only 1 loss when my computer nearly locked up and I bailed out of my short near the EOD when there was a brick wall of BB lines just below 60.