GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable (Page 9) - Trading Journals | futures.io
futures.io futures trading
 

Go Back   futures.io

> Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Trading Journals


GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,713 / 733
Last Reply:Yesterday (04:16 AM) Attachments:291

Welcome to futures.io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike
     

Reply
 291  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread

GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old December 19th, 2015, 06:06 PM   #81 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Inletcap View Post
Just scanned your journal- to be brief I will be direct so please don't take offense. I have some experience day trading and here is what I see:

Dont' worry about it. I'm not here for an ego trip, but I'm here to learn from experienced traders like you and really appreciate your feedback on my trading.


Inletcap View Post
You need to have context(start with where did the market close yesterday, open today, where is it relative to these levels and overnight highs and lows, trading above or below VWAP, range trading or trending, what is NYSE Tick and VIX doing, how extended is the current run, what is moving the market, where is the market going (I.e. Potential targets), where do you expect price to run into speed bumps, etc)

Yeah...I have some important price levels printed on the chart and started using volume profiles recently which helped my in knowing when not to trade. But I don't start the day looking at the big picture by -for example- zooming in from the weekly to the daily, hourly, etc. I realize I should do that. Same as marking important swingpoints from the weekly and daily.


Inletcap View Post
You need to define support and resistance levels and focus on trading near them ( swing highs/lows, high volume areas from volume profile, VWAP, yesterday's h/l/c, overnight high/ low). You don't need a reversal bar pattern or to nail the top or bottom- a general price level such as I just mentioned to enter a trade and see if it works will suffice

Brooks strategy won't work- trade price points ( see above) not bar patterns

I've always focussed on trading patterns and have little succes with it. FT71's webinair in which he discusses information vs price risk has made me realize just recently that I should enter on price levels and not enter on confirmation patterns like H1/L1's. Your feedback is exactly the same, thanks for confirming this!


Inletcap View Post
Delta or cum volume has too many fase signals- look at Vix and NYSE Tick for divergences. These are market internals

I will study it!


Inletcap View Post
Most important- you need to trade your price levels and not bar patterns- you need to frame the market with context and you must accept that not all trades are going to work but you have to try them out and manage risk if you want to reap any rewards. Start following the spoos thread I mentioned above and things will make better sense as you will see everything I mentioned talked about all day long. Hope this helps.

I have a software development background and, as such, have a very methodological mindset: there must be clear entry, exit and trade management rules. This is ofcourse good, but as a consequence I trade very mechanical and don't focus on the market context and don't use my experience in recognizing important price levels and trade off it.

Again, thank you very much for your feedback. I was already thinking about revising my method. Your feedback is spot-on and has encourage me greatly. I will get back on this!

As for the ES thread, I will keep a close eye on it!

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to GruttePier for this post:
     

Old December 20th, 2015, 06:44 PM   #82 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Trading rules 3.0

Major change of my trade plan. In short:
- Instead of just jumping into the market, I will prep the trading session by zooming in from the weekly, daily, 200k volume to the 10k volume to understand what is going on and identify scenario's on what might happen
- Instead of taking entries based on confirmation patterns (3-bar reversal, Al Brooks H1/L1), I will enter on price levels such as (pullbacks to) VAL and Globex Open. Ideally that price level would have confluence with -for example- a previous swingpoint, floortrader pivot point, etc.
- I'll keep an eye on the ES spoo thread during the trading

The biggest challange for me is to let go of the "mechanical" entries based on confirmation patterns and trust my gut-feel/experience regarding price levels.
I realize I have a lot to discover such as:
- How far of the price level do I put the limit order? Exactly on the price level, 1 tick below/above, 2 ticks, ...? I will start with 1 tick
- How much risk do take? I feel I can reduce my risk from 2 points to 1.5 or maybe 1 point. I will start with 1.5 point (with an ATR between 2.0 - 2.5)
- Which price levels do work and which don't? I will keep stats per price level (volume levels, yesterday's OHLC, floor trader privot points, 1st hour high/low, etc)

I will keep my current trade management rules of trailing price by putting the stoporder 1 tick below the low of the previous bar. The market doesn't care about my 10k bars, but I'm satisfied with these rules sofar. They've helped me in containing runners and getting out when required.
I will also continue trading 2 contract, with a fixed profit target of 1.5 point for the first contract and let the second contract run until a signficant price level or getting (trail)stopped out.

My expectations with my 3.0 rules are:
- Since trading on price levels is new for me, I expect possibly half a year before my first profitable month. That doens't matter. I'm in here for the long run
- A low percentage profitable, somewhere between 30-40% and hopefully increasing to 40-50% as I gain more experience
- A better RRR, higher than 2
- A low risk per trade, around 1 point

Half a year ago I wasn't ready for this. Trading patterns helped me in sticking to my trading rules near 100% of the time and eliminated the gambling from my trading. I feel I'm ready for it now.

I'm trading the ES for 17 months, have done exactly 995 trades and estimate about 500 hours of screentime.

Looking forward to start trading with the above. Unfortunatly I'm only able to trade for 1 hour tomorrow.

Below are the stats sofar with my previous rules.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Last edited by GruttePier; December 20th, 2015 at 08:00 PM.
Reply With Quote
     

Old December 20th, 2015, 09:03 PM   #83 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 9,767 given, 25,047 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



GruttePier View Post
Major change of my trade plan. In short:
- Instead of just jumping into the market, I will prep the trading session by zooming in from the weekly, daily, 200k volume to the 10k volume to understand what is going on and identify scenario's on what might happen
- Instead of taking entries based on confirmation patterns (3-bar reversal, Al Brooks H1/L1), I will enter on price levels such as (pullbacks to) VAL and Globex Open. Ideally that price level would have confluence with -for example- a previous swingpoint, floortrader pivot point, etc.
- I'll keep an eye on the ES spoo thread during the trading

The biggest challange for me is to let go of the "mechanical" entries based on confirmation patterns and trust my gut-feel/experience regarding price levels.
I realize I have a lot to discover such as:
- How far of the price level do I put the limit order? Exactly on the price level, 1 tick below/above, 2 ticks, ...? I will start with 1 tick
- How much risk do take? I feel I can reduce my risk from 2 points to 1.5 or maybe 1 point. I will start with 1.5 point (with an ATR between 2.0 - 2.5)
- Which price levels do work and which don't? I will keep stats per price level (volume levels, yesterday's OHLC, floor trader privot points, 1st hour high/low, etc)

I will keep my current trade management rules of trailing price by putting the stoporder 1 tick below the low of the previous bar. The market doesn't care about my 10k bars, but I'm satisfied with these rules sofar. They've helped me in containing runners and getting out when required.
I will also continue trading 2 contract, with a fixed profit target of 1.5 point for the first contract and let the second contract run until a signficant price level or getting (trail)stopped out.

My expectations with my 3.0 rules are:
- Since trading on price levels is new for me, I expect possibly half a year before my first profitable month. That doens't matter. I'm in here for the long run
- A low percentage profitable, somewhere between 30-40% and hopefully increasing to 40-50% as I gain more experience
- A better RRR, higher than 2
- A low risk per trade, around 1 point

Half a year ago I wasn't ready for this. Trading patterns helped me in sticking to my trading rules near 100% of the time and eliminated the gambling from my trading. I feel I'm ready for it now.

I'm trading the ES for 17 months, have done exactly 995 trades and estimate about 500 hours of screentime.

Looking forward to start trading with the above. Unfortunatly I'm only able to trade for 1 hour tomorrow.

Below are the stats sofar with my previous rules.


Stop is way too tight and first profit target too small. Think about the average days range ( about 20 pts usually). For starters your stop should be around 20-25% of that and your first target the same or more. Consider fading your entries when the internals confirm a potential change in direction instead of going all in- maybe one at your price level and one wher you would normally have a stop-if you nailed the swing and the market stars going your way you can manually fill that second contract- give these a little room to breathe.

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to Inletcap for this post:
     

Old December 21st, 2015, 08:05 AM   #84 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Re


Inletcap View Post
Stop is way too tight and first profit target too small. Think about the average days range ( about 20 pts usually). For starters your stop should be around 20-25% of that and your first target the same or more. Consider fading your entries when the internals confirm a potential change in direction instead of going all in- maybe one at your price level and one wher you would normally have a stop-if you nailed the swing and the market stars going your way you can manually fill that second contract- give these a little room to breathe.

OK, I grasp the concept.
Instead of trying to pick the minor pullbacks with small stop and small profit targets, you're entering on price levels that matter in the big picture only and use wider stops and profit targets to give it room.
Thanks!

Reply With Quote
     
The following user says Thank You to GruttePier for this post:
     

Old December 21st, 2015, 08:13 AM   #85 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Dec 12 prep

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Allthough I'm not in the position to trade the morning session today, I did some market prep.

I believe there are 2 important price levels for today:
- The support level at 2006.50
- The VWAP level at 2002 of the composite since the ATH on July 24th

I have the following scenario's in mind:
(1) Price will test these levels, find support and then go up further
(2) Price will fall through these levels, pullback to test the levels, fail and drop further

Enclosed the daily chart visualising these scenario's.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 21st, 2015, 03:59 PM   #86 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Dec 21

Profit: -4.5 pts

Identified 2 important price levels to trade today:
- 2006.50, swingpoint on the daily that falls together with today's pivot point and 1st hour low
- 2002.00, VWAP since ATH on July 20th

Trade #1
- Pullback to the 2002 level. Price tested this level a couple of times
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points. Breakeven at 3 points profit
- Lost confidence when a higher low was created, closed upon a 1 tick break above the previous bar high
- P&L +0.75 pts
- I'm satisfied with this trade, went according to my new rules. Allthough it was in profit for 3.75 pts, I did not see signals to close it earlier

Trade #2
- Small breakout above 2002 level, long on pullback. Confluence with daily VWAP
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points
- Closed when I lost confidence
- P&L -3.25 pts
- Should have waited for a more significant breakout of the 2006.50 price level, stop too wide

Trade #3
- Pullback to 2002 level, confluence with daily VAL
- Long 1 contract, risk 2 points
- Closed when I lost confidence in the setup
- P&L -1.25 pts
- Satisfied, the setup just didn't workout

First day with my new method.
Nice to see price trading around the 2 price levels that I identified during my preperations.

I have subscripted to the market internals and am experimenting with TICK and DJIA.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old December 22nd, 2015, 05:08 PM   #87 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Dec 22

Only 1 hour in the market today due to social obligations, no trades.

During the daily prep I identified the following important price levels to trade today:
2019.25 Naked VPOC + yesterday's high
2011.00 Yesterday's VPOC + pivot point + 3 day balance point
2006.50 Support/resistance level (important level yesterdag)
2004.50 ATH VWAP

I did not go long when price touched the 2011 price level, because:
(1) I expected resistance from the VAL a couple of ticks higher, and
(2) I assumed price was in a small downtrend and did not want to trade countertrend
Instead, I was waiting for price to breakdown, pullback to the 2011 level and then enter short

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 4th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #88 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Jan 4th

Profit: 0 pts

I was very anxious to trade today when heard about the selloff in China and the european indices opening in red this morning. Unfortunatly, it was only at 20.15 CET (/2.15pm EST) that I was able to sit behind my trading desk and start NinjaTrader.

Significant price levels identified during the prep for today:
- 2005.75 VWAP since ATH
- 1983.25 Support since Dec 14th

Trade #1
- Pullback to the VWAP, in anticipation of price breaking through the 1st hour low
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1986.50 (VAL)
- Breakeven at 2 points in profit
- Stopped out at breakeven
- P&L 0 points
- I'm not satisfied the exit of this trade because seconds after I got stopped out, price broke through the 1st hour low and would have eventually hit my profit target. Hindsight: I should have given this setup just little more room.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Last edited by GruttePier; January 4th, 2016 at 04:15 PM.
Reply With Quote
     

Old January 5th, 2016, 04:08 PM   #89 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 877 given, 1,951 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Jan 5th

Profit: -2.25 pts

Significant levels identified during preperations:
- 2009.50 yesterday's high

Trade #1
- Pullback to the VAH
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target is the 2 day balance point+HVN at 2011.75
- Decided to close at breakeven when price didn't manage to break through the resistance at 2009.75
- Same scenario as yesterday. Price did what I was anticipating, but I didn't give the trade enough room and closed at breakeven. Allmost immediatly after closing the trade, price went into my anticipated direction. I missed a nice trade of 7 points.

Trade #2
- Pullback to VAH / yesterday high / previous swingpoint at 2009.75
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target HOD at 2017
- Closed with loss of 2.25
- I lost confidence once price was not able to break through the pivot point at 2011, but decided to stay in the trade to give it room this time. Closed it when TICK went negative (again), TRIN remained up and buyers did not seem to step in (T&S)

I've been watching the 5 minute chart of the TICK and TRIN for a couple of days now.
TICK seems to be leading for a couple of seconds. For example, when TICK goes a couple of hunderd points negative then a couple of seconds later T&S will show a lot of sell orders.
For those looking at TICK:
- What is it exactly what you are looking at? Specifically, how do you use it for a longer timeframe, other than just a couple of seconds ahead?
- What timeframe do you use for TICK?

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
     

Old January 5th, 2016, 09:18 PM   #90 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 9,767 given, 25,047 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Most people are looking at tick for
1) extreme prints (600+/- May signal trend continuation whereas 900+ could be exhaustion, etc)
2) divergences vs the price levels on the past two or more swing highs/lows or vs past few bars
3) cumulative- simply looking to see if overall there is buying (staying above zero or cumulative line climbing) or selling ( opposite buying) pressure as the day progresses


I like to look at a histogram of a two period moving average of the typical price(h+l+c /3) of 1 minute interval for divergences, continuation, confirmation and extremes. The histo will also give a clue as to what cumulative reading likely is by applying common sense- if histo is greater than zero most of the day- C_tick is rising and vice versa.

Reply With Quote
     
The following 3 users say Thank You to Inletcap for this post:
     

Reply



futures.io > Futures Trading, News, Charts and Platforms > Trading Journals > GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

NinjaTrader 8: Features and Enhancements, Tips and Tricks

Dec 6
 

Al Brooks: Stop Losing when a Good Trade goes Bad, Correcting Mistakes

Elite only
 

Trading Technologies: Algo Design Lab hands-on

Dec 13
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Most profitable Trading room Farhangp Vendors and Product Reviews 18 July 1st, 2016 05:44 AM
Profitable sim/market replay = profitable live? nourozi NinjaTrader 7 January 20th, 2014 11:03 AM
Simple Directional Trading profitable? Big Mike Traders Hideout 29 November 24th, 2013 11:38 AM
Profitable Patterns in Trading JDNeeman Trading Journals 8 June 28th, 2012 08:45 PM
Modification in trading habits to start being profitable arjfca Psychology and Money Management 20 February 15th, 2012 06:54 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:05 AM.

Copyright © 2016 by futures.io. All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
 
no new posts
Page generated 2016-12-08 in 0.24 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.205.176.107