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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,713 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old December 11th, 2015, 12:53 PM   #71 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Dec 11

Profit: +3.0 points

The GOM market profile indicator was not working. After the first trade I found out that contract rollover was the cause.

Setup 1, +2.5 pts. (ES 12-15 series). L1 entry on a pullback to S2 and 1st hour high resistance levels. Late entry (3 ticks lower) because T&S was not showing large sell orders yet. Closed the trade when large buy orders were executed. In hindsight good decision, would have been stopped out at breakeven otherwise.

Setup 2, +0.5 pts. (ES 03-16 series). L1 entry after a pullback just above the VAL. It's a very volatile market with price jumping up and down. ATR is at 3.1

There are many overlapping candles and the market is very volatile. It's a risky market and I decide to take my profit and start the weekend.

Have a nice weekend all.

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Old December 14th, 2015, 04:03 PM   #72 (permalink)
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Dec 14

Profit: - 4 pts

A very volatile market. Between 16.12 and 16.17 CET, the market was very crazy.
I have no idea what was going on, probably some algo's going nuts.

Setup 1, -4 pts. Pullback to previous day VAL. A nice setup with price going from a high value node into a low value area. The ATR was 3.7, but I didn't want to risk 3.5 points. Risked 2 points instead and got stopped out.

Learned that I should not trade in a crazy market, even when entry criteria are met.

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Old December 14th, 2015, 04:07 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Question on cumulative delta


I have a question on divergence between price and cumulative delta.

Until 18:41 CET, price and cumulative delta were in sync. Price is back at the (globex) opening price and the cumulative delta is at 0.
From then on though, price starts to oscillate around the (globex) opening price but the cumulative delta creeps up.

My explanation is that there are more aggresive buyers (market orders at ask) than aggresive sellers (market orders at bid). Normally this would result in price going up. However, in this case the buyers are not able to move price up. This indicates a bigger downward potential.
This sound reasonable IMO.

However, price breakouts out to the upper side at around 20.42.
Should I interpretid this convergence as that there are more buyers than sellers, and since price is lagging a breakout to the upper is expected?

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Old December 15th, 2015, 03:59 PM   #74 (permalink)
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Dec 15

Late from work, watching the market for 30 mins since 20.30 CET only.
No trades.

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Old December 16th, 2015, 03:12 PM   #75 (permalink)
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Dec 16

Futures Edge on FIO
No trading on FOMC days.

The FOMC announcement at 20.00 CET caused an 18 point drop within 1 minute followed by a 25 point pullback.
The ATR went to 4.1, which is more risk than I want to take.

Prior to the FOMC annoucment, there were a lot of overlapping candles. Not a suitable trading day for my method (and me).

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Old December 17th, 2015, 04:07 PM   #76 (permalink)
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Dec 17

Profit: -1.75 pts

Setup 1, -4 pts. Nice setup with pullback to VAL, but did not work this time unfortunatly.
Setup 2, +2.25 pts. Pullback near the first hour low

I watched one of FT71 webinars a couple of weeks ago. In this webinar he discusses price risk versus information risk. With my Al Brooks style entries (H1/L1's), I wait for confirmation of the anticipated direction and then open a position. With these entries I accept getting a worse price in exchange for a higher probability ==> price risk.

I have been thinking about this for some time now. My problem seems to be that, allthough the RRR has improved, I keep on fighting agains the losses. When I get stopped out, I take the full loss, being 4 points mostly. This is my 7th month of trading with price risk. Allthough I've learned a lot, I'm starting to doubt if can get consistently profitable with my method the way it is now. I also don't believe in adding indicator or using cumulative delta (I've been studying this recently).

I did a little backtesting today and found out that my current entries are often 1.5 - 2 points away from the price level that I would get in if I'd accept information risk. In the little backtesting I did, I found that the RRR is far better that it is currently.

I will continue with price risk for now and will consider information risk entries starting in January. In the meantime, I'll do some more backtesting and post my findings.

For the interested, a good thread on price and information risk can be found here: https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/19185-ft71-s-price-risk-vs-information-risk-argument.html

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Old December 18th, 2015, 03:50 PM   #77 (permalink)
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Dec 18

Started at 20.00 CET, no opportunities.

Have a nice weekend all.
GP

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Old December 18th, 2015, 11:20 PM   #78 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Hi fellow-traders,

after reading the positive feedback on the journals kept here on futures.io, I decided to setup my own journal.
The reason I'm keeping a journal is because I would like to receive feedback from experienced traders to make the necessary changes (if any) in my behaviour or trading rules to reach my goal.

My goal is to become consistently profitable on the SIM for at least 3 months in row.
Only then, I will make the next step to trading live.

GP

Profitable on SIM and profitable in real trading is like night and day.

Trading on SIM, no matter how good you get, will not prepare you in the least for going live.

Starting a real account, no matter the size, and putting actual dollars at risk, will kickstart your learning at an untold level as compared to SIM.

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Old December 19th, 2015, 12:27 AM   #79 (permalink)
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Have you checked out the Elite ES Analysis thread?

https://futures.io/elite-circle/13452-elite-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-2611.html#post545478

Just scanned your journal- to be brief I will be direct so please don't take offense. I have some experience day trading and here is what I see:

You need to have context(start with where did the market close yesterday, open today, where is it relative to these levels and overnight highs and lows, trading above or below VWAP, range trading or trending, what is NYSE Tick and VIX doing, how extended is the current run, what is moving the market, where is the market going (I.e. Potential targets), where do you expect price to run into speed bumps, etc)

You need to define support and resistance levels and focus on trading near them ( swing highs/lows, high volume areas from volume profile, VWAP, yesterday's h/l/c, overnight high/ low). You don't need a reversal bar pattern or to nail the top or bottom- a general price level such as I just mentioned to enter a trade and see if it works will suffice

Brooks strategy won't work- trade price points ( see above) not bar patterns

Cumulative Delta or cum volume has too many fase signals- look at Vix and NYSE Tick for divergences. These are market internals

Most important- you need to trade your price levels and not bar patterns- you need to frame the market with context and you must accept that not all trades are going to work but you have to try them out and manage risk if you want to reap any rewards. Start following the spoos thread I mentioned above and things will make better sense as you will see everything I mentioned talked about all day long. Hope this helps.

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Old December 19th, 2015, 05:16 PM   #80 (permalink)
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
Profitable on SIM and profitable in real trading is like night and day.

Trading on SIM, no matter how good you get, will not prepare you in the least for going live.

Starting a real account, no matter the size, and putting actual dollars at risk, will kickstart your learning at an untold level as compared to SIM.

Hi TradeSlider,

I've traded live mostly and am full aware of the emotions kicking in.
However, as long as I'm not profitable on the SIM there is no use in trading live.

Some might consider the SIM a playground and try all kind of stuff.
For me, the SIM is dead serious. I don't fool around on it.
Again, I need to get profitable on it first. Can't wait to trading in a live market :-)

Thanks,
GP


Last edited by GruttePier; December 19th, 2015 at 06:19 PM.
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