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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,270 / 726
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old November 17th, 2016, 04:13 PM   #691 (permalink)
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Nov 17th

Price is dabbling between OR tap and the 79-80/R2 price level. RVOl is low and $tick is weak. Taking a short. Stopped out by 1 tick, price then retraces to VWAP.

$tick is making first significant prints: -750 at VWAP. Re-entering my initial short. I need to be away for an hour: put my stop just below HOD and profit target just above PP.
When I return, stop is hit.

I also see another opportunity to short. Price is at R3 with a small $tick divergence and declining RVOL. My only concern are the 2 high RVOL spikes at the highs. Despite Iím taking it.
I got in a little early, price touched exactly my expected 85-86 price zone.
Closed at breakeven.

Total loss of 5.75 points.

Hindsight: My bias was today would be a range day, as such I was fading the higher levels. Allthough today was a low volume day with an average RVOL of 60%, price was strong enough to stay above VWAP for the most part of the day.

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Old November 22nd, 2016, 10:31 AM   #692 (permalink)
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Nov 22nd

Market overview ( 9.30am ET / 15.30 CET)
- Asia, up 0.3-1.4%
- Europe, up 0.4-0.8%
- Oil, down 0.2%
- Gold, up 0.3%
- Bonds, up 3/32.

Overall sentiment is positive.
Several news releases today.

Important price levels
- 2186-87. SR level, R1
- xxx

Overnight made a new high
Overnight volumes were relatively low, RVOL is currently at 40%
Opening gap of 6 points.

I have a long bias today.
Given the low volumes, I donít expect a trending day up. Iím expecting price to test new highs (2208 weekly R2 / R3 perhaps) and then fall back to a support level like yesterdayís high or 2186-87

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Old November 22nd, 2016, 12:30 PM   #693 (permalink)
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Nov 22


Upon the opening price made a lower high and was chopping sideways on $tick near 400. I consider this a sign of strength and decide to take a pilot long. Price is in a 3-point sidewayís chop for half an hour now :-( My bias is still valid, P&F looks bullish, internals are neutral  staying in my trade. After 1 hour price makes a double bottom, then breaks LOD. Internals look weak, I decide to stay in the trade given the low RVOL and support from ONL and yesterdayís high. Stopped out at the lowest point (wtf).

Looking for another long entry. Price is chopping at LOD, internals remain relative strong (not so weak) and activity (T&S) increases  taking long. Closed position upon the break of LOD.

Iím done, my bias is not correct.

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Old November 28th, 2016, 11:01 AM   #694 (permalink)
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Nov 28th

Market overview (10am ET / 16.00 CET)
- Asia was mixed
- Europe is down 0.3 Ė 0.5%
- US indices are down
- Oil is 1.5% up

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
No news releases today.
Little volumes due to Thanksgiving last week.

Important price levels
- 2212. ATH
- 2202-03. SR level + weekly PP
- 2191-92. SR level + S3 + ADR low

Overnight stayed below Fridayís VWAP and a low out of Fridayís range.
Upon the opening, price tested overnight high and failed.
Overnight volumes were low.
Opening gap of 4 points.

Upon the opening, price is chopping sides.

Iím expecting another range day (love Ďem )
On the upper side, Iím expecting ONH or perhaps the ATH.
On the lower side, Iím expecting ONL, confluencing with S1/S2.
Should price break down, Iím expecting it to go towards 2191-92.

My bias is neutralÖokayÖa slightly negative.

Iíll be cautious today and be trading from the extreme levels only.

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Old November 28th, 2016, 03:41 PM   #695 (permalink)
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Nov 28th

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GruttePier View Post
Iíll be cautious today and be trading from the extreme levels only.



Caught by a choppy range day again.

I saw a nice long opportunity at VWAP and took it.
Then I realized my mistake and went short with a profit target at yesterday's close.
Left to have dinner and was stopped out when I returned.

My bias was correct, but for some reason I did not trade it.
I guess the solution is nearby, trade my bias.

Because of my low trading frequency in combination with the low volatility, I'm not in tune with the markets lately.
I just figured that maybe I should switch to a more volatile instrument like CL.
Any thoughts on this are more than welcome.

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Old November 28th, 2016, 05:07 PM   #696 (permalink)
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I always find that simplifying, and getting back to the basics helps get me back in the game. Been gradually reading your journal(on page 18 I think), so not exactly sure what your plan looks like currently. But it does look like you have a fair amount of trades that at least go in your direction before moving against you lately.

You do have a couple of options. If you stay with one contract, you might need to a be a bit more agile while the market stays in a smallish range. And second you could bump to two contracts, with a close target on the first contract to average your basis in case the trade ends up as a loss. I'm assuming you adjust your targets based on volatility and/or structure.

Either way I know how frustrating that can be, good luck on getting back on track!


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The bottom line is this Ė if you donít maintain a level of consistency in what you do, you will never be able to make the progress and achieve the results you desire. This is why so many successful traders talk about the importance of consistency in approach as that has often made all the difference between their success and failure.
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Old November 28th, 2016, 05:10 PM   #697 (permalink)
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Caught by a choppy range day again.

I saw a nice long opportunity at VWAP and took it.
Then I realized my mistake and went short with a profit target at yesterday's close.
Left to have dinner and was stopped out when I returned.

My bias was correct, but for some reason I did not trade it.
I guess the solution is nearby, trade my bias.

Because of my low trading frequency in combination with the low volatility, I'm not in tune with the markets lately.
I just figured that maybe I should switch to a more volatile instrument like CL.
Any thoughts on this are more than welcome.

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CL is wild and good volatility. That's the main reason I tried to move away from NQ but not successful.

Since you are consistent with ES for some time, I bet you would do good in CL too. But try SIM for a week or 2 to understand price action movement then switch to live.

-------
Chipps
The First Aim Is "Survival"
Second is "Consistency"

Last edited by chipps1983; November 28th, 2016 at 05:23 PM.
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Old November 30th, 2016, 04:40 PM   #698 (permalink)
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chipps1983 View Post
CL is wild and good volatility. That's the main reason I tried to move away from NQ but not successful.

Since you are consistent with ES for some time, I bet you would do good in CL too. But try SIM for a week or 2 to understand price action movement then switch to live.

Thanks, that's what I am going to do.

I've been struggling with low volume range days for half a year now with mixed results. I'm not getting better at it, so apparently it's not for me. I can keep fighting it, or choose an instrument that does have more volatilit.
I will try CL for the next 4 weeks and then decide on what to do.
Looking forward to CL next week!

I spent this afternoon converting my indicators to NT8, only the RVOL needs to be converted.

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Old November 30th, 2016, 04:41 PM   #699 (permalink)
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chipps1983 View Post
CL is wild and good volatility. That's the main reason I tried to move away from NQ but not successful.

Since you are consistent with ES for some time, I bet you would do good in CL too. But try SIM for a week or 2 to understand price action movement then switch to live.

Thanks, that's what I am going to do.

I've been struggling with low volume range days for half a year now with mixed results. I'm not getting better at it, so apparently it's not for me. I can keep fighting it, or choose an instrument that volatility that suits me better.
Iīm not sure it that will be CL, but Iīll be trying CL for the next 4 weeks and then decide on what to do next.
Looking forward to CL next week!

I spent this afternoon converting my indicators to NT8, only the RVOL needs to be converted.


Last edited by GruttePier; November 30th, 2016 at 05:22 PM.
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Old December 1st, 2016, 11:24 AM   #700 (permalink)
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Dec 1st


OK. New month, new contract, new start.
Iím back in learning mode.

Market overview ( 9.30am ET / 16.30 CET)
- Asia, positive
- Europe, negative
- US markets, mixed
- Oil, very positive
- Gold, negative
- Bonds, negative

ES
- Overnight volume was choppy and low
- Price is in a 8 point range since the open
- Not much action
- Looks like a range day between 2094-95 and 2003-2004

CL
- Spectacular run up yesterday
- Overnight made higher highs and price went up even further towards R3
- I have a long bias. Price might pullback towards R1/Yesterday high before testing the 51 and then 53 level

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