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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

  #61 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
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November results

November was not a profitable month.

I started looking at volume profiling and experimenting with it.
During the first 2 weeks of November, I felt completely disoriented in my trading and was doubting every trade. By now, I'm conviniced volume profiling will add value to my trading. I still need to gain more knowledge and experience in how to apply it exactly. So far, it helps me in recognizing chop days (aka balance days) and staying out of the market at the right times.

My previous goal was to get a healty RRR. Despite the loss this month, I'm happy to see that the RRR is still healthy and far better then when I started this journal: 1.08R for a winning trade and 0.87R for a losing trade.

The % profitable is very low this month and this is the root cause of this month's loss: Taking entries at the wrong moments, or better, not knowing when not to trade.
I know that the outcome of a trade is completely random and there is no guarantee that even the best setup's will endup profitable. I'm fine with that, that's the risk of trading. What I am not happy with, is taking setups that I would not take in hindsight or during backtesting.
My goal for next month is therefore to take only trades that I would take in backtesting aswell.

And oh... Did I mention that I'm proud of catching the breakout on Nov 18th?
Will add my personal Trade of the Month to the monthly evaluation.

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Last edited by GruttePier; November 30th, 2015 at 03:15 PM.
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  #62 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Dec 1

Balance day, no trading for me today.

Unfortunatly, I'm not able to trade tomorrow and day after that.
See you on Friday.

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  #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Last week backtest


The results of backtesting last week:
Tuesday 1/12: -3 pts (same as with actual trading, except that I didn't trade at 16.05)
Wednesday 2/12: 11.25 pts (did not trade this day)
Thursday 3/12: 18.75 pts (did not trade this day)
Friday 4/12: 1.75 pts (did not trade this day)

Isn't that ironic? The days that I'm not trading, there are huge wins in backtesting.
I've been trading almost every single day past last 2 months, except for last week due to work and social obligations.

Few notes there in comparing backtesting to my actual trading:
- I don't trade all day, the backtest results cover a whole day
- My method is largely mechanical, except for T&S which help me finetune the exit when I'm not breakeven

I lost the annotated chart of Dec 4th and did not feel like backtesting that day again just for showing the chart here (sorry).
Had a winning trade and a losing trade, total P&L 1.75 pts. Let me know if you really want to see it, then I'll backtest Friday again and show the chart.

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  #64 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Dec 7

Profit: -5.5 pts

Setup 1, -3.5 pts. Short after a bounce of the VAL and at the top of the trendline (nice). Setup didn't workout
Setup 2, -2 pts. Long entry at the pullback after the trendline breakout. During the trade, the VPOC shifted and immediatly large sell orders were executed. Closed the trade, which was smart to do in hindsight.

Daily loss limit is (almost) reached, stopped trading for today.

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  #65 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Dec 8

Profit: -8 pts

Setup 1, -4 pts. H1 entry, but price pulled back more. This was a low probability trade since there was no confluence with any other price level.
Setup 2, -4 pts. H2 entry, but price pulled back more. I should not trade in the value area.

No more trades for today since the max daily loss limit has been reached.

Looking back(testing) at yesterday and today, I would have taken the same trades again.
It feels like I'm blindly executing my trading rules instead of feeling in sync with the market. I'm missing or not using crucial information.
This is the feeling I have for a couple of weeks now.

I don't believe in indicators and don't want to add anymore complexity. I must do it with the price action information available to me.
I've looked at cumulative delta a several times and have used it for a short while a year ago. I did not find it add any value or new information.
While I'm typing this, I realize I use T&S rather succesfully to exit positions when I feel the market is not going my way, but I don't use it as a confirmation on my entries: An entry is confirmed when T&S shows subsequent behaviour. I used to take entries only when T&S confirmed the anticipated direction, but somehow stopped using it a long time ago.
Maybe this is the missing information that I'm looking for.

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Last edited by GruttePier; December 8th, 2015 at 03:15 PM. Reason: Grammar
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  #66 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Profit: -8 pts

Setup 1, -4 pts. H1 entry, but price pulled back more. This was a low probability trade since there was no confluence with any other price level.
...

...

your pull back trade seems too far away from ATR 2.5 Line, wait for it get close to ATR line first

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  #67 (permalink)
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cory View Post
your pull back trade seems too far away from ATR 2.5 Line, wait for it get close to ATR line first

That's interesting! I never looked at using ATR this way.
I will study this more closely tomorrow.

Do you take your entries exclusively from price hitting the ATR line, or do you use ATR as a confirmation signal?

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  #68 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
That's interesting! I never looked at using ATR this way.
I will study this more closely tomorrow.

Do you take your entries exclusively from price hitting the ATR line, or do you use ATR as a confirmation signal?

I user atr line as s/r level thus entry is close or near atr as possible

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  #69 (permalink)
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Dec 9

Profit: 6.25 pts

Setup 1, +1.75 pts. Nice setup with pullback to yesterday's VAL
Setup 2, +4.5 pts. Nice trade with no confluence with other price level

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  #70 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Dec 10


Profit: 0 pts

H1 entry on a pullback near the HOD. Closed the positions at breakeven when momentum was gone.
In hindsight a good decision.

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