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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,906 / 746
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old October 7th, 2016, 12:59 PM   #621 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Oct 6th

Was able to trade the afternoon only, exactly in the chop.
It was very boring, scratched with 0.25 points of profit

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Old October 7th, 2016, 02:38 PM   #622 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Oct 7th

Started trading in the afternoon.

Lost on the first trade because I antiicipated a range.

Took the 4th trade because a huge price/$tick divergence was showing up. It took some patience, but it paid off eventually.

Total profit of 5.25 points today.
Nice to start the weekend with.

Good luck for all dealing with Matthew!

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Old October 11th, 2016, 12:46 PM   #623 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Oct 11th prep


Market overview (11.45 am / 17.45 CET)
- Japan, up 0.9%
- China, down 1.2%
- Europe, down 0.4-0.5%
- Oil, down 0.9%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, down 9/32

Overall sentiment is negative.
Labor market and redbook slightly worse than expected. No other news to be released today.

Important price levels
- 2183-85. SR level on 30 min
- 2136. SR level on 30 min, confluencing with S1 weekly
- 2107. SR level on longer term (daily chart)

Price is in 1 big downtrend since overnight, with RVOL( 14 ) currently at 124%.

Iím expecting a continuation of the downtrend. RVOL is strong, so Iím not expecting a reversal.
Until price is making a higher low, Iíll not be fighting the trend.
So Iíll be looking for shorts on pullbacks to important price levels.

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Old October 11th, 2016, 04:07 PM   #624 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Oct 11th

A big down day and I missed the beginning of it!

Started trading at 11.45 am, which is late considering the move that price already made.
Although price is below ADR low already, the RVOL is high at 125% and therefore I believe it has potential to move further downÖ.until proven otherwise.

Taking a short at weekly S1, just below the 2136 price level (marked as significant during my prep). Yes, I see the $tick divergence but itís been there on previous lower lows also and price dropped 11 more points since.
Adding when price gains momentum, keeping a small stop on both.
The momentum seems gone now, price is chopping sideways for an hour while it was moving fast earlier. I decide to stay in my trade and trade my bias. If price reverses, Iíll reverse my position as well.
Price is testing the 2136 level for the third time now but this time with lower $tick prints and declining RVOL. Activity suddenly increased, Iím expecting a move in any direction soon. Closing the positions because RVOL is increasing and $tick is making new high prints. Loss: 4.25 points.

Price made higher lows, switching bias to temporarily long. Anticipating a retracement to VWAP. Price almost hits my profit target at VWAP and pullsback. Adding contract #2. Closing both contracts when momentum went against me. Loss: -5 points.

Switched bias to short again, internals looking very weak again. Taking a short and adding when price is chopping sideways. Profit target #1 hit. Profit target just above S2 missed. Closing #2 with small profit. Profit: 7.75

Small loss on a big day, total -1.75 points.

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Old October 11th, 2016, 04:29 PM   #625 (permalink)
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Oct 11th - the sequal

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Saw one quick scalp and took 3 points, closed it at signs of weakness.
Ended the day with a small profit of instead of a small loss

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Old October 12th, 2016, 11:42 AM   #626 (permalink)
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Oct 12th prep

Market overview (10.15 am / 16.15 CET)
- Asia, down 0.6-1.0%
- Europe, down 0.3-0.5%
- Oil, down 1%
- Gold, up 0.1%
- Bonds, down 7/32

Overall sentiment is negative.
Negative news released today (job openings), FOMC at 2 pm

Important price levels
- 2136-37. SR level, confluencing with PP, weekly S1, yesterdayís close and yesterdayís VWAP

Overnight made a high at yesterdayís IB high, then dropped.
Upon the opening, price made a new low and is testing the

There was a big trend down yesterday, but the day ended at VWAP.
That, plus the fact that today the FOMC meeting minutes will be released, Iím expecting a range day. Given the strong resistance in the 35-37 area, Iím expecting this to be the upper side of the range. Iím not clear on the lower range level, it can be the LOD set after the open or S2 weekly.

Iíll be looking for shorts from the 35-37 area initially and stay out of the market around FOMC.

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Old October 12th, 2016, 01:45 PM   #627 (permalink)
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Oct 12th

Started trading about 1 hour after the open.

While working on my daily prep, I saw a short opportunity and took it. I got stopped out by the tick because I was too slow in moving my stop (-3 points). Took a re-entry because I believe my bias is still correct. The $tick divergence is confirming this. Price moves my way. Added 2nd contract on weakness. Profit target #1 hit (+3.75 points). Adding 2nd contract. Price retraces. Momentum seems to be gone and price is chopping. Closing both contracts. Lot of work for 3 points of profit .

Price touched yesterdayís close and is pulling back to VWAP. Despite the very weak $tick, price is barely moving. This indicates strength. Taking a VWAP long anticipating a short move up towards the 36-37 level. Profit target hit. It was tempting to move the profit target because a breakout might happen, but my bias is that itís a range day so I must trade accordingly. Profit: 3.5 points

Iím done for today with a profit of 6.5 points, I donít want to be trading around FOMC.

I joined Alexí room today. A lot of well-known members hang out there. I like the room and appreciate the enthusiasm and effort Alex puts in. Iím in an internal discussion if I really want to hang out there though. Two examples:
(1) I was short, while the other guys were adding on their longs. I did manage to stick to my own bias and closed it on signs of chop/strength. Even though I did well in following my own plan, I donít want to get influenced by sentiment in the room
(2) Price took off from VWAP at one point. Given my bias/trade plan, I had no intention of taking a long. The guys in the room were taking the long. Itís easy to let go of my bias and follow the guys in the room. Thatís not what I want, I want to do my own trading and not follow someone elseís trading

Will keep you updated on my thoughts ofcourse.

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Old October 12th, 2016, 01:56 PM   #628 (permalink)
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It's a difficult decision as to join a room or stay trading your plan on your own.

In September I got the opportunity to join a room and screen share with a pro trader...a guy who is in the public and does extremely well. I stayed for almost 2 weeks before I decided to stop. There's no question the guy is a way better trader than I am, knows way more, etc. His trading style had a lot of similarities to my own as well. In the end, I decided that I needed to continue to develop myself with my plan and not his plan and method. I could have (and still probably could) join up with him and copy his trades and do pretty well, but what would I be learning? And would I ever get to the point where I could copy his method 100% even without his assistance?

I believe everyone needs to decide for themselves what to do and I suppose it depends on where you feel you are on the learning curve. For me, I believe I have found a tradable edge and I need to continue to back test and forward test my plan.

Anyway, I hope my rambling helps in some way

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Old October 12th, 2016, 05:00 PM   #629 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post

I joined Alex’ room today. A lot of well-known members hang out there. I like the room and appreciate the enthusiasm and effort Alex puts in. I’m in an internal discussion if I really want to hang out there though. Two examples:
(1) I was short, while the other guys were adding on their longs. I did manage to stick to my own bias and closed it on signs of chop/strength. Even though I did well in following my own plan, I don’t want to get influenced by sentiment in the room
(2) Price took off from VWAP at one point. Given my bias/trade plan, I had no intention of taking a long. The guys in the room were taking the long. It’s easy to let go of my bias and follow the guys in the room. That’s not what I want, I want to do my own trading and not follow someone else’s trading

Will keep you updated on my thoughts ofcourse.

I too checked out his room today- I like his idea and like that he's doing it to genuinely help others but its probably not for me as I found just hearing someone else's thoughts spoken was a distraction to my own trading plan. I think there is a lot of value to be had in his room for new traders to get a foot in the door and get to watch what someone with some experience is looking at and how they are handling obstacles that come up. As far as seeing others read on the markets, I prefer the forums layout with pictures and the ability to simply reject a post by scrolling up or down that I don't need to draw from. Just my 2 cents- I really do appreciate Alex's efforts and think they are valuable so this writing is in no way intended to undermine his efforts...

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Old October 12th, 2016, 07:18 PM   #630 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I joined Alexí room today. A lot of well-known members hang out there. I like the room and appreciate the enthusiasm and effort Alex puts in. Iím in an internal discussion if I really want to hang out there though. Two examples:
(1) I was short, while the other guys were adding on their longs. I did manage to stick to my own bias and closed it on signs of chop/strength. Even though I did well in following my own plan, I donít want to get influenced by sentiment in the room
(2) Price took off from VWAP at one point. Given my bias/trade plan, I had no intention of taking a long. The guys in the room were taking the long. Itís easy to let go of my bias and follow the guys in the room. Thatís not what I want, I want to do my own trading and not follow someone elseís trading

Will keep you updated on my thoughts ofcourse.


Inletcap View Post
I too checked out his room today- I like his idea and like that he's doing it to genuinely help others but its probably not for me as I found just hearing someone else's thoughts spoken was a distraction to my own trading plan. I think there is a lot of value to be had in his room for new traders to get a foot in the door and get to watch what someone with some experience is looking at and how they are handling obstacles that come up. As far as seeing others read on the markets, I prefer the forums layout with pictures and the ability to simply reject a post by scrolling up or down that I don't need to draw from. Just my 2 cents- I really do appreciate Alex's efforts and think they are valuable so this writing is in no way intended to undermine his efforts...

I was in the room also, and I did like hearing his ideas and his reasoning. Some I agreed with, some I had doubts about (as with anyone.) But I'm interested in his method, which is what he is offering and what I came for.

I hope that @GruttePier is wrong in saying that "The guys in the room were taking the long." -- In other words, that others tuning in to the room were just taking @rocksolid68's (Alex's) trades. If they were, that is essentially trading suicide. What would someone do when they didn't have the trade-giver there to tell them what to do?

I hope, as Alex obviously intends, that those who tune in are getting an understanding of how he is looking at market opportunities, not following him literally by taking the same trades. The "following" of trade gurus in trading rooms is part of the reason they have a bad rep: when the guru loses money, so do the followers, and the followers don't really learn anything.

This is clearly not in any way what Alex is intending, and I hope no one is foolish enough to give up their own autonomy in this way.

Speaking for myself, I liked to hear how he was making his decisions. I won't substitute his perspective for mine, and no one should. I didn't trade today, but if I had, I may not have tuned in to the room, so as not to let it influence me. But maybe I would have tuned in, but not taken his lead blindly. I hope.

I do think I can learn from someone else, but not trade following them. So I do pretty much agree with both @GruttePier and @Inletcap as to the practical aspects of trading while having the room open. I'll probably still drop in fairly often, because the commentary is very intelligent and extremely worthwhile, but I hope no one will just take the trades on his say-so. I hope that people will learn something about why he is taking those trades, which is the point.

Just my cent and a half.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; October 12th, 2016 at 07:24 PM.
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