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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,650 / 733
Last Reply:9 Hours Ago (04:16 AM) Attachments:291

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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old September 20th, 2016, 05:47 PM   #591 (permalink)
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I saw some potential targets that I was not paying attention to down there (being blinded by my long bias) and felt if the intraday short strength continued they could be hit- in essence- I saw enough "room"and bearish pressure to play the short side for a while even though my bias was bullish for the day. Had I not done that I would have kept looking for every reason to get long all the way down- knowing myself

Whenever I see price going against my bias and I am waiting for my trade bias to come into play, I always think to myself:

Is the market likely to continue against my bias?
Does it have room to run?


If the answers are "yes", I tend to think, "I might as well get paid while I wait!"

I end up taking the trade against my bias while I wait.

Worst case scenario is you take a stop out and flip the other direction.

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Old September 20th, 2016, 06:47 PM   #592 (permalink)
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In all seriousness, I would love to see you in the Spoo thread whenever you can! I think that you have value that you could contribute to the thread! Of course this is up to you and if you have the time

I do watch the spoos but I'm not actively participating because I don't want to get influenced by others and focus on my own trading instead.

On the other hand, a red coat bears a responsibility to the community



Sent from my iPhone using futures.io mobile app

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Old September 20th, 2016, 06:53 PM   #593 (permalink)
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On the other hand, a red coat bears a responsibility to the community

Not sure which we get closer to on some days:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_coat_(British_Army_and_Royal_Marines)

or

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butlins_Redcoats


Cheers

Travel Well
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Old September 21st, 2016, 11:01 AM   #594 (permalink)
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

I'd like to compare us with the Royal Marine Red Coats, but am afraid we sometimes look like the Butlins

BTW, no trading for me today (FOMC)

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Old September 22nd, 2016, 01:17 PM   #595 (permalink)
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Sep 22nd prep

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Market overview (12 am / 18.00 CET)
- Japan, up 1.9%
- China, up 0.3%
- Europe, up 1.5-2.2%
- Oil, up 2.2%
- Gold, up 1.1%
- Bonds, up 13/32

Overall sentiment is positive.
Several mixed news releases today.

Important price levels
- 2183-84. SR level, confluence with R3
- 2165. SR level of past 2 weeks, confluence with R1 and LOD sofar

Price moved up 15 points overnight, creating a 10 point opening gap.
Price is in a 7 point range since and circling around the VWAP.

I’m not expecting a range day, it is a range day sofar.
I will be trading it as such, taking longs from the 65 level and shorts from the 72 level. If price breaks these levels, I’ll be trading the pullbacks.

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Old September 22nd, 2016, 03:19 PM   #596 (permalink)
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Started trading at noon ET. Price moved up 15 points overnight, creating a 10 point opening gap. Since then, it’s in a 7 point range.



Price is near the anticipated 65 level, $tick longs stronger than weaker and RVOL did not show much participation during the last pullback to OR low. Taking a pilot long (trade #1). Price moves up on 150% RVOL to VWAP. Add 2nd contract. Profit target #1 hit. Breakeven on #2.

Profit: +3 points.



I’m done for today.

Look at the first big spike on RVOL today. Maybe the opening gap will be filled afterall?

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Last edited by GruttePier; September 22nd, 2016 at 04:14 PM.
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Old September 23rd, 2016, 10:32 AM   #597 (permalink)
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Sep 23 prep

Market overview (9.30 am / 15.30 CET)
- Asia, down 0.3%
- Europe, down 0.3-0.8%
- Oil, down 1%
- Gold, down 0.3%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
Little news expected today, no rocket fire.

Important price levels
- 2183-84. SR level, R3 and just below ADR high
- 2168. Yesterday’s VWAP, PP, yesterday’s close
- 2156-57. SR level, week R1 and yesterday’s high+close

Overnight made a new low and is trading below yesterday’s VWAP.
Upon the opening,

Volumes are low.
Small opening gap, likely to get filled.

It´s Friday, no/little new expected, volumes are low: I´m expecting a range day.
I have a small negative bias since other markets are negative and price is trading below yesterday´s VWAP. I´m expecting price to test the 2156-57 level on the downside and 2168 on the upside.

Since I´m expecting a drop, I´ll be looking for a nice shorting area shortly the open.
The PP / yesterday’s close would be a nice level

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Old September 23rd, 2016, 12:26 PM   #598 (permalink)
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Sep 23rd

Started trading at the open.

I line with my bias, I’m timing my short. Waiting for a pullback to the 68 level, but before it gets there $tick gets negative and T&S shows large sell order being executed. Taking the short (trade #1). Added when the move gains momentum. Price misses my profit target with 1 tick and is chopping around the OR low since. The downward momentum seems to be gone and a $tick divergence is showing up. Closing contract #2 at breakeven to reduce my risk. Pfff, price is trading in a 5.5 point range for almost 2 hours now. Since price is not acting in line with my bias, I’m closing it and start celebrating the weekend. Profit 1.5 points.

Have a nice weekend all!

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Old September 27th, 2016, 04:46 PM   #599 (permalink)
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Sep 27th

Started trading around 1 am / 19.00 CET.

Sofar, it´s a trend day up with some nice opportunities. Hopefully you´re all doing well sofar.

Price is touching the lower part of the trading range of past 2.5 months (the Range of Boredom). It’s making a second attempt to break a level where weekly PP, a SR level and ADR high come together. A $tick divergence is showing and RVOL is declining on the attempts to break this level. Reason for me to take a short (trade #1). Price is making a third attempt to break the 2153 level but RVOL and $tick remain low. Weekly PP is holding really well sofar, no need to close the trade despite the long time it takes to do what it´s supposed to do (according to my trade idea). Price finally breaks below the 2150.50 level. I’m not adding because there’s not much momentum behind the move and RVOL remains below average on this move. Price is ranging for 2 hours now and I’m losing my conviction. Getting near the end of the session now, price missed profit target by 1 tick. It’s not more than a gamble now, closing at breakeven.

I've never been in a trade so late during the session. The price action is different, it feels unpredicatble with the high volumes coming up.

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Old September 28th, 2016, 12:18 PM   #600 (permalink)
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Sep 28th prep


Market overview (11 am / 17.00 CET)
- Asia, mixed (down 1.3%, up 0.2%)
- Europe, up 0.7-0.8%
- Oil, down 0.3%
- Gold, down 0.5%
- Bonds, up 3/32.

Overall sentiment is slightly positive.
Several FED speakers today, oil report.

Important price levels
- 2153. SR level + weekly PP + yesterday’s high + yesterday’s close
- 2146. PP + yesterday’s VWAP + ON low
- 2133. S1 weekly + yesterday’s low + SR level

Overnight made a higher high. It was tested right after the open, but failed. Price is falling since, through the 2146 level.

I’m expecting a negative day where price will test the 2132 level. In case the 2146 level will hold, price might reverse and it will endup in a range day.

I will be looking for shorts during pullbacks. If price reverse, I’ll switch to long.

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