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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:39,394 / 758
Last Reply:December 9th, 2016 (03:33 PM) Attachments:296

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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old November 13th, 2015, 03:31 PM   #51 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Nov 13

Profit: -5 pts

Setup 1, +1.5 pts. Nice trade just below resistance level of VAL and S1, but risky because the entry was at an HVN.
Setup 2, -3 pts. Second pullback after trendline break. Was a nice setup with take-off from VPOC into LVN. Too bad it didn't work out
Setup 3, -5 pts.

Stopped trading because another trade will exceed the daily max loss of 6 points.
Also, it's Friday so I don't expect any more action.

Setup 2 and 3 were both entered in a high value zone and resulted in a loss. New rule: only enter in low volume zones.

I'm not satisfied with the results this month at all (down 12.75 points). Will do some studying this weekend and reset for next week.

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Old November 15th, 2015, 06:18 PM   #52 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Using vp in my trading

I've been looking at volume profiling for more than a week now and realize it is (/can be) a very valuable tool. However, I had not found a way to incorporate it into my trading.

This weekend I've been backtesting a month of data to try to find a way to incorporate it and believe I have found one. I will apply the following rules with regards to volume profiling:
- No trades in the value area. I image a very trending day with a large range can be an exception when there is a wide LVN, but I haven't found one during backtests
- There must be confluence with an important price level as VAL/VAH, floortrader pivot point, initial balance or yesterday high/low
- In strong trends, confluence is not required. Just jump on the move in a minor pullback

With these rules I backtested past 2 weeks. I now realize I took a lot of trades in the value area and around the VPOC. A lot of losing trades have been prevented. The volume profiling helps me to identify chop area and stay on the sideline. For example, on Nov 6 (live trading) I had a dramatic loss of -8.25 pts. With the rules above I would have taken 2 trades only and ended that day with a profit of 5 pts (backtest ofcourse).

While backtesting past 2 weeks, I also realized that my live trades are in line with the rules. In other words, I don't have a discipline issue. I already figured this, but I'm happy to have this confirmed in the backtests.
I found backtesting and comparing the results with live trades very helpful and will continue doing this.

I started this weekend feeling very (, very, very) bad about the results of past 2 weeks and not knowing how to use volume profiling in my trading. Right now, I feel confident again and can't wait to put these new rules into the market next week.

For the record, below are the backtest results of above rules on November sofar.

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Last edited by GruttePier; November 15th, 2015 at 06:56 PM.
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Old November 16th, 2015, 03:35 PM   #53 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Nov 16


Profit: -6.5 pts

Setup 1, -4 pts. I was too eager trading a breakout below the VAL and should not have taken this trade. Instead, should have waited for a significant breakout and then a pullback to VAL. This did not occur, thus should not have traded it
Setup 2: Too bad this didn't work out. Closed the positions instead of waiting for the stop to be hit, good decision.

I stopped trading for today since my daily loss limit (8 points for today) would be exceed if I'd have another losing trade.

Looking back at today, the only good setup today was at 19:07h (after I decided to quit for today): A textbook pullback to the VAH followed with an H1 entry.

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Old November 17th, 2015, 04:04 PM   #54 (permalink)
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Nov 17

Profit: -2.5 pts

Setup 1, 0 pts. A bounce of the VAH. I didn't have confidence in this setup anymore (HVN developing, large sell orders in T&S) and closed at breakeven. In hindsight not a good decision and missed a 1.5 pt profit.
Setup 2, 1.5 pts.
Setup 3, -4 pts. Nice setup with pullback to VAL. Unfortunatly it didn't workout this time. These is no guarantee on these setups, most of the time they workout

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Old November 18th, 2015, 04:06 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Nov 18

Futures Edge on FIO
Profit: +6.75 pts

Had to wait 30 minutes for this textbook pullback to the vah.
There was a similar trade earlier today at 18:18h (12.18 ET). Too bad I wasn't trading then.

It's nice to end the day with a profit again after 3 losing days, good for the moral

At the end of the day, traders generally take their profits resulting in price going in the direction of the VPOC. Looking back at yesterday's losing trade (setup 3), I should not have traded a setup that anticipates on a price breakout just before market close.

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Old November 19th, 2015, 04:24 PM   #56 (permalink)
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Nov 19

No trading opportunities today.

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Old November 20th, 2015, 03:51 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Nov 20

No trading today

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Old November 24th, 2015, 03:32 PM   #58 (permalink)
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Nov 23

Did not have time to trade.
Looking back (backtesting), this low volume balance didn't have any opportunities for my method.

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Old November 24th, 2015, 04:08 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Nov 24

Profit: -1 pts

Setup 1, + 2 pts. Nice trade, no comments
Setup 2, -3 pts. Nice setup trade, a pullback bouncing of yesterday's VAL and the pivot point, but it didn't workout.

Had my eye on a 3rd setup (pullback to VPOC), but this was not triggered during my trading window (ending at 21.00 CET / 3 pm ET).

Finally a day with some volume.

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Old November 30th, 2015, 03:42 PM   #60 (permalink)
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Nov 30


Traded 1 setup today, losing 3 points. Price touched today VAL, confluence with 1st hour low.
The L1 entry didn't work unfortunatly

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