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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,713 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old September 13th, 2016, 02:18 PM   #581 (permalink)
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Sep 13

11 am / 17.00 CET.

Upon the opening, price retraced to PP, then dropped down. Price has pulled back to VWAP and went down towards S1. Itīs finding support there. Price feels weak and I donít want to wait for a hypothetical pullback to -1SD. Taking a pilot short (trade #1). Added when price gained momentum (profit target yesterday low). Profit target contract 1 hit (+3.75 points). Price is pulling back to S1 (have stop just above it). Price moves down and seems to gain momentum, add. Profit target contract #2 hit (+3.5 points). Total profit 3.75 points. Large buy orders in T&S are getting absorbed nicely, no need to close #3 despite the pullback. Iím not adding since price is near my profit target and a reversal might be in-the-making. Price is chopping sideways, a $tick divergence is developing and price seems to get stronger. Closing #3 with 2.5 point loss. Total profit on this trade of 4.75 points.

Taking a long because price action shows a reversal (LL Ė HL) and the $tick divergence. Missed the add when momentum gained, looking to add on a pullback to S1. Stopped out on #1 on exhaustion (sudden $tick prints below -1000). Stopped on #2.
Loss of 5.5 points

Momentum changes to the downside, $tick and price action looking weak again (in line with bias). Taking a short (trade #3). Add upon momentum. Profit target #1 hit (+3.5 points), stopped at break even on #2.

Total profit: 2.75

Evaluation
Trade 1. Nice. Too bad I missed the pullback to VWAP, that would have been a nice entry
Trade 2. First of all, I went long while my bias was short. I got influenced by other traders & discussions. Very, very stupid and good that I ended up with a loss. Totally deserved that. This is really unwanted behaviour. Also stupid is that I did not stick to my rule of taking a small profit on the first contract. Instead of a break even this should have been a 4 point profit
Trade 3. That how it should be done! Not like trade 2.

It looks like Iím not able trade the rest of the week.
Time to let trade #2 sink in.

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Old September 19th, 2016, 10:59 AM   #582 (permalink)
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Sep 19th prep

Market overview (10 am / 16.00 CET)
- Japan, up 0.7%
- China, up 0.9%
- Europe, up 0.7 Ė 1.2%
- Oil, up 1%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is positive.
Housing index at 10 am. FOMC on Wednesday.

Important price levels
- 56-57. SR level
- 47-48. SR level

Overnight was very choppy, but did make a new high compared to Friday.
Upon the opening, price pulled back a little and is trying to test ON high.

Wednesday is FOMC. As usual, not much action is expected until then.
Iím expecting price to take out the ON high given the positive sentiment sofar.
My thesis is that it will thest the 47-48 or 56-57 level and then pullback to range.

Iíll be looking longs initially and just watch how the day unfolds.

My goal today is to trade my bias and stick with it.

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Old September 19th, 2016, 03:40 PM   #583 (permalink)
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Sep 19th


Started trading at 10 am.

Overnight was very choppy, but did make a new high compared to Friday.
Upon the opening, price pulled back a little and seems to be setup for a ON high test.

In line with bias, taking a long (trade #1) around OR high. Price gained momentum, added 2nd contract with profit target at 47-48 level. Profit target #1 hit (+3 points). RVOL is very low at 75%: Iíll be out if R3 does not hold and be back in at lower levels. Price missed my profit target by 1 pts, then pulls back. Stopped on #2 at breakeven.
P&L: +3 points.

Price pulled back to exactly VWAP. I am considering a re-entry but Iím doubting because $tick is not showing signs of strength and RVOL is getting lower (71% currently). Price moves back to OR high / R2, good that I did not enter earlier but taking a long now (trade #2).
Price is chopping sideways for an hour now with low RVOL and weak $tick. I remind myself of Mark Fisher teaching that if a trade is not working within a specific period of time, you should exit it. Just when Iím considering this, price is getting stronger and starts chopping around VWAP. Leaving for dinner with stop and profit target in place. Stopped out.
P&L: -2.5 points

Evaluation:
Trade 1: Price missed my anticipated price level by 1 tick and then indeed pulled back. Nice trade
Trade 2: RVOL was indicating weakness already, should not have taken this trade. Also, should have followed Mark Fisher's teaching of including the time-component which would have invalidated this trade (out at breakeven)

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Old September 20th, 2016, 01:22 PM   #584 (permalink)
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Sep 20 prep

Market overview (12 am / 18.00 CET)
- Japan, slightly down
- China, slightly down
- Europe, overall neutral
- US, slightly up
- Oil, up
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, up

Overall sentiment is slightly positive.
Mixed news released this morning.

Important price levels
- 2147-48. SR level + yesterday high
- 2132-33. SR level, weekly PP, yesterday close and opening gap filled
- 2105-06. SR level

Price went higher overnight. Upon the opening, price took out the ON high and is trending down slowly since.
Small opening gap, likely to get filled.

The volumes are low, 9 point range and market is waiting for FOMC tomorrow.
No major moves are expected and price is likely to range until then.

I will be looking for pullbacks to VWAP and fades from extremes (long at 32/33, short at 47/48).
When in doubt, Iíll be on the sidelines (like now when price almost filled the opening gap).

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Old September 20th, 2016, 01:56 PM   #585 (permalink)
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Old September 20th, 2016, 04:27 PM   #586 (permalink)
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Started trading at 12 am / 18.00 CET

Price just made a now LOD, barely filling the opening gap. Allthough price is near my expected fade level (32/33), Iím having my doubts because RVOL is low and $tick is weak. I decide not to enter and just watch for now. Price pulled back to yesterdayís VWAP / IB low, $tick is weak. Taking a short (trade #1). Profit target hit, +4.5 points.

My bias was that price would bounce back towards VWAP from this level. RVOL remains low and $tick is weak. I decide not to fade it. Re-entry short (trade #2). Sudden momentum and action in T&S, decide to go long (trade #3) and trade my bias ). Loss of 2.75 points on trade #2.

After almost 1 hour of chopping, price goes up on low RVOL. I decide not add. Price misses my profit target by 1 tick and starts chopping between PP and VWAP. Add with profit target at OR low. Taking profit on #1, +3.25 points. Iím regretting my add now, itís the day before FOMC and price is likely to settle around VWAP today. Scratched. Profit: +3.25 + 0

Total profit of 5 points today.

Evaluation:
Today worked out exactly according to my bias
All nice trades, except for #2 where I did not stick to my bias.

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Old September 20th, 2016, 05:21 PM   #587 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Started trading at 12 am / 18.00 CET

Price just made a now LOD, barely filling the opening gap. Allthough price is near my expected fade level (32/33), Iím having my doubts because RVOL is low and $tick is weak. I decide not to enter and just watch for now. Price pulled back to yesterdayís VWAP / IB low, $tick is weak. Taking a short (trade #1). Profit target hit, +4.5 points.

My bias was that price would bounce back towards VWAP from this level. RVOL remains low and $tick is weak. I decide not to fade it. Re-entry short (trade #2). Sudden momentum and action in T&S, decide to go long (trade #3) and trade my bias ). Loss of 2.75 points on trade #2.

After almost 1 hour of chopping, price goes up on low RVOL. I decide not add. Price misses my profit target by 1 tick and starts chopping between PP and VWAP. Add with profit target at OR low. Taking profit on #1, +3.25 points. Iím regretting my add now, itís the day before FOMC and price is likely to settle around VWAP today. Scratched. Profit: +3.25 + 0

Total profit of 5 points today.

Evaluation:
Today worked out exactly according to my bias
All nice trades, except for #2 where I did not stick to my bias.

Good read of the markets today- nice job sitting out some due to conditions- notice you are using RVOL- its a nice tool to have esp when you are disciplined enough to use it ( I was not today)

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Old September 20th, 2016, 05:37 PM   #588 (permalink)
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable


Inletcap View Post
Good read of the markets today- nice job sitting out some due to conditions- notice you are using RVOL- its a nice tool to have esp when you are disciplined enough to use it ( I was not today)


Thanks.

I've been using the RVOL for a couple of weeks now and like it very much sofar. I use it as a confirmation for an entry on a significant price level where an increasing RVOL is confirming the gaining momentum. If RVOL is not moving, I'm not taking the trade (yet). It works well in combination with $tick.

I wanted to ask you a question regarding your trading yesterday, @Inletcap.
At some point @rocksolid68 mentioned he was short, just when price gained momentum in the drop. You then responded (in the spoos) that you changed your bias to short "because you saw y-close and y-vwap below". Can you elaborate on that pls? I can imagine that you changed bias because price went below vwap, but that's not what you mentioned.


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Old September 20th, 2016, 05:41 PM   #589 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks.

I've been using the RVOL for a couple of weeks now and like it very much sofar. I use it as a confirmation for an entry on a significant price level where an increasing RVOL is confirming the gaining momentum. If RVOL is not moving, I'm not taking the trade (yet). It works well in combination with $tick.

I wanted to ask you a question regarding your trading yesterday, @Inletcap.
At some point @rocksolid68 mentioned he was short, just when price gained momentum in the drop. You then responded (in the spoos) that you changed your bias to short "because you saw y-close and y-vwap below". Can you elaborate on that pls? I can imagine that you changed bias because price went below vwap, but that's not what you mentioned.


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He noticed that I am Warren Buffet and I was the one moving the markets lower..

In all seriousness, I would love to see you in the Spoo thread whenever you can! I think that you have value that you could contribute to the thread! Of course this is up to you and if you have the time.

(PS. Don't tell anyone, but the Spoo thread is getting lonely! )

@Inletcap, give him your response, I don't mean to distract!

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Old September 20th, 2016, 05:44 PM   #590 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks.

I've been using the RVOL for a couple of weeks now and like it very much sofar. I use it as a confirmation for an entry on a significant price level where an increasing RVOL is confirming the gaining momentum. If RVOL is not moving, I'm not taking the trade (yet). It works well in combination with $tick.

I wanted to ask you a question regarding your trading yesterday, @Inletcap.
At some point @rocksolid68 mentioned he was short, just when price gained momentum in the drop. You then responded (in the spoos) that you changed your bias to short "because you saw y-close and y-vwap below". Can you elaborate on that pls? I can imagine that you changed bias because price went below vwap, but that's not what you mentioned.


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I saw some potential targets that I was not paying attention to down there (being blinded by my long bias) and felt if the intraday short strength continued they could be hit- in essence- I saw enough "room"and bearish pressure to play the short side for a while even though my bias was bullish for the day. Had I not done that I would have kept looking for every reason to get long all the way down- knowing myself

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