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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,183 / 726
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old August 25th, 2016, 01:50 PM   #541 (permalink)
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Context log
- Overnight made small downtrend below yesterday’s VWAP. Upon the opening, price made a small newer low at S1 (failed A_down) just below the OR. It then made a A up and pulled back to VWAP.
- Took a long (trade #1) and added when price seemed to gain momentum. RVOL is not confirming the move up though and price is chopping sideways just below my profit target of #1. Price makes a swift pullback to VWAP, then return to SD1 again and makes a high 1 tick below my 1st profit target. Price pulled back to VWAP again and moves higher now. Profit target #1 hit. Moving stop of #2 to breakeven since I must leave for 30 mins. Return to see that profit target #2 was missed by 1 tick, déjà vu of #1. Out of #2 at breakeven
- BBQ time, done for today

Trade 1: 3 + 0 = +3 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Internals look weak. At moment of writing, $tick makes a +500 print
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s close
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s VWAP / ADR high
- Profit target #1 hit, +3 points
- Breakeven #2

Nice and simple trading. Good job!

I really like your charts, they are so clean!

Your progress is an inspiration to many aspiring contextual traders; keep it up!

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Old August 26th, 2016, 06:19 AM   #542 (permalink)
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I've been experimenting lately with getting-in within the first 15-30 mins of RTH. These are really high probability setup's. Yesterday and the day before were 2 examples of getting in early in the day with minimal risk exposed.
I can't wait to trade these setups on big trend days.

Based on my market prep I have a bias for a specific direction and look for clues/confirmation to take the entries in the first 5-10-15-20 mins of RTH.

@Inletcap has described very, very well how he trades this: https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/39314-inletcap-s-random-collections-15.html#post591715

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Old August 26th, 2016, 06:25 AM   #543 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Trade 1: 3 + 0 = +3 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Internals look weak. At moment of writing, $tick makes a +500 print
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s close
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s VWAP / ADR high
- Profit target #1 hit, +3 points
- Breakeven #2

Hindsight evaluation (notes to myself)
1. I should not set the profit targets too sharp. I put the profit target #2 1 tick below the ONH / ADR high, this is too sharp, give it more room
2. Allthough missing the profit target happened unattended, I should have closed the trade when I returned. Price was chopping sideways and $tick was diverging. Could have made 3 points on #2 then instead of breakeven.

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Old August 26th, 2016, 10:33 AM   #544 (permalink)
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Aug 26

Price has been chopping sideways overnight with low volume.
Until Yellen speaks, the market will be trading sideways.

From a technical point of view, since price is at the low of the Range of Boredom I’m expecting more upside potential than downside. Also, OTF is still in their beachhouses in Hampton so they will not move the market.

Given the -for me- unpredictability of the market around Yellen, I’ll be watching the morning session only. It’s weekend and extremely hot weather, so we’ll be off to the boat in the afternoon.

Good trading all.

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Old August 30th, 2016, 01:37 PM   #545 (permalink)
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Aug 30th prep

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Market overview (12.30 am / 18.30 CET)
- Japan, neutral
- China, up 0.8%
- Europe, up 0.4 – 1.0%
- Oil, down 1.1%
- Gold, down 0.5%
- Bonds, down 3/32

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
Mixed news released today.

Important price levels
- 2184-85. SR level, confluencing with R1
- 2173-74. SR level, confluencing with weekly PP and IB low
- 2165-66. SR level, just above S2
-

Overnight was sideways.
Upon the opening, price mad a small higher high, then dropped towards S1 / weekly PP and is trading sideways since. Today’s range is 10 points. Price is at VWAP currently.

Another range day, I’ll be trading it accordingly.
Will go long when price tests the LOD and short when price tests the HOD -or depending on the volume- tests R1.

It's lunch (/dinner in the Netherlands) already and most of the action today has already happened.
I'll be staying low and not force any trades.

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Old August 30th, 2016, 04:31 PM   #546 (permalink)
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Aug 30

Context log
- Overnight was sideways. Upon the opening, price mad a small higher high, then dropped towards S1 / weekly PP and is trading sideways since. Today’s range is 10 points. Price is at VWAP currently.
- Price is trading sideways in a 1 point range with RVOL well below average. Taking a short (trade #1). Price does indeed move down and tests IB low, making a higher low. Price seems to have found support at the 73-74 price level with decling RVOL. Price seems to miss the energy for a further down move. Closing with small profit
- Price goes down further though. Much further , missing a very nice profit
- Price is almost at the 68-67 price level and makes a small bounce. $tick divergence showing up, taking a long (trade #2). Price is moving in my direction. Finds resistance at S1. Resting the urge to close and stay in the trade. Price does not seem to break the weekly PP, moving profit target to weekly PP and stop to breakeven. Profit target hit

Done for today.
Not satisfied with closing trade #1 way too early. Again, I should have traded 2 contracts (even on low vol days) and kept 1 as a runner.

Trade 1: +1.5 points
- VWAP trade
- $tick and RVOL supporting a short
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target weekly PP
- Closed, +1.5 point
- Hindsight: Closed way too early

Trade 2: +2.5 points
- Fading LOD
- $tick divergence confirming the trade, RVOL above 100
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target VWAP
- Closed
- Hindsight

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Old August 31st, 2016, 12:15 PM   #547 (permalink)
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Aug 31st prep

Market overview (11 am / 17.00 CET)
- Japan, up 0.9%
- China, down 0.1%
- Europe, down 0-0.4%
- Oil, down 2.5%
- Gold, down 0.3%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is negative, despite several positive news releases today.

Important price levels
- 2178.50 – 2168.00 SR level, just below yesterday’s low and S1
- 2165.00 – 2165.50. SR level

Overnight chopped sideways and trended down upon the opening.
The chart today looks nearly the same as yesterdays, except that
Current daily range is only 8 points.
Price is trading below yesterday’s VWAP all day.

Sentiment is negative, so I’ll be looking for shorts on pullbacks.
The 68-69 price level looks very interesting to short with VWAP, S1, yesterday’s low and a SR level coming together.
Another trade idea is to take a long on the 64-65 level if a $tick divergence develops.
We’ll see.

Started late today, so I missed a lot of fun already.

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Old August 31st, 2016, 01:33 PM   #548 (permalink)
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Aug 31st

Context log
- Overnight chopped sideways and trended down upon the opening
- Price is an significant price level, both LOD and -2sd. $tick is looking stronger. Let’s see if price makes a new LOD. RVOL is lower than at LOD and $tick seems to get stronger. Taking a long (trade #1) with profit target just below VWAP. Price does indeed move up, makes a double bottom at LOD with $tick divergence, first +500 $tick printing today, 3rd failed test of 2167.25, stopped out
- Price made a new LOD at S2 (near ADR low). Although this is not a price level I anticipated during the prep, I dedide to take a long here (trade #2) in anticipation of price pulling back to VWAP. I realize this is a gamble trade and I have no indications of price pulling back other than my feeling. Stopped out, my own fault by trading counter-trend.

Loss of 5 points today.

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Old August 31st, 2016, 01:37 PM   #549 (permalink)
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August evaluation

Being the first half of August on holiday, this was a short trading month with 14 trades compared to 40 trades on average.
August was also a month with extreme low volume and daily ranges. As can be seen in the table below, the ADR of the days that I trades was only 10 points.

Despite the above, I’m happy with the following results:
- The expectancy has increased slightly to 0.79 points per trade
- The profit in relation to the ADR is the same as last month

Things that I need to improve on:
- I like trading multiple contracts. However, there were a couple of times that I traded 1 contract because of the limited profit potential by the small daily range. In almost all cases though, it would have been better to trade 2 contracts because price did make a large move that 3-4 points. My goal for next month: when in doubt of trading multiple contracts, trade multiple contracts
- Sticking to my bias. Except for 1, all losses this month were due to the fact that I did not trade my bias. Goal for next month: All trades must be in line with bias
- I’ve missed a nice profit because I was a dick for a tick. Although this does not happen so often, I must be more aware of this

I'll be making a job change in September.
Allthough this job is exactly what I want, it means that I will be having less time to trade. Especially trading the morning sessions will be limited due to the time difference (CET timezone is ET + 6 hours).
We'll see how this turns out. This situation is a given, I choose for it and I need to fit my trading into it.
Since trading is not a source of income, it comes second after work (wife, kids and dog are on #0).

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Last edited by GruttePier; August 31st, 2016 at 01:45 PM.
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Old August 31st, 2016, 02:22 PM   #550 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post

Despite the above, I’m happy with the following results:
- The expectancy has increased slightly to 0.79 points per trade
- The profit in relation to the ADR is the same as last month

Well done, as usual.

Very informative presentation of statistics.

Bob.

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