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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,686 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old August 16th, 2016, 04:46 PM   #531 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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August 16th

Context log
- Overnight made lower low and lower high
- Upon the open, price dropped towards the weekly PP / S3 and has been trading in a 5 point range since.
- $tick is looking strong for the first time today. Looking for a long around the VWAP, took it (trade #1). Price is dropping though, good opportunity to add at the trendline. Price drops further towards S3 / weekly PP and is ranging. $tick does not seem to worsen, I remain in the trade. Price breaks the LOD, stopped out by the tick, this is bad luck 
- Price goes back to weekly PP after testing the 2175-76 price level. A $tick divergence is showing. In line with bias, I’m taking a long (trade #2)

Trade 1: -6.25 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Looking strong (first time today)
- Long, 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target at 3 points
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below yesterday’s low
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: I did not trade my bias with the first contract, the second contract did to some extend (confluence with trendline) but had bad luck to be stopped by the tick

Trade 2: 0 points
- Fading expected extreme price level
- $tick divergence confirming this setup
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 3 points
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below yesterday's low
- Closed it at breakeven

I don’t like these low volume range days.
There are too little opportunities and the profit potential is too small to compensate the losses. The juggling with my job schedule just to trade these low days is just not worth it.

I might be trading some days but no juggling with job schedule until volume returns.

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Old August 22nd, 2016, 11:44 AM   #532 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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August 22nd prep

Market overview (10.30am / 16.30 CET)
- Japan, up 0.3%
- China, up 0.2%
- Europe, down 0.2 – up 0.1%
- Oil, down 2.7%
- Gold, down 0.4%
- Bonds, up 8/32.

Overall sentiment is mixed/neutral.
No news expected today

Important price levels
- 2090-91. ATH
- 2084-85. SR level (30 min), confluence with ADR high
- 2073-74. SR level (30 min), IB low

The market is more-or-less ranging between 2174 – 2184 for 11 days now.

Overnight made a small higher high, then dropped back in the range.
Upon the opening, price dropped to the low of this range, then broke out towards yesterday’s high. It found resistance and is chopping sideways now.

I don’t expect a final break-out of the 73-85 range until the OTF return. Until then, my bias is that price is ranging between these levels.

I will be trading as such and taking fades from these levels.

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Old August 22nd, 2016, 02:33 PM   #533 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Aug 22nd


Context log
- Overnight made a small higher high, then dropped back in the range. Upon the opening, price dropped to the low of this range, then broke out towards yesterday’s high. It found resistance and is chopping sideways
- The market does not seem to have enough fuel to go towards the 84-85 level. My bias is that price will not break the 84-85 level, so I’m taking a short here (trade #1). Given the small ranges, I’ll not trade multiple contracts. Profit target filled, should have traded 2 contracts though 
- Waiting for price to come to the 73-74 level. It seems to find support at OR mid / S1, just above the 73-74 level. Taking a long (trade #2). If momentum picks up, I’ll add another contract. Added when momentum picked up (RVOl above average, $tick positive again). Profit target #1 hit, moving stop of #2 to breakeven. Profit target #2 hit
- Return from dinner, see another long opportunity at S1 but decide not to take it and close it for today. The afternoon action past couple of trading sessions is a couple of points only

On days like this, I forget why I don’t like range days

Trade 1: +2.75 points
- Fade of upper range
- $tick is making lower highs (on 2 min basis)
- Short, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at PP
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Should have traded the 2 contracts and kept 1 runner

Trade 2: +9 points
- Fade of lower range
- $tick is bearish, not supporting the long (as expected)
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 3 points
- Long, 1 contract, risk 2.5 points, profit target at yesterday’s high
- Profit target #1, +3 points
- Profit target #2, +6 points
- Hindsight: No comments

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Old August 22nd, 2016, 03:27 PM   #534 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Context log
- Overnight made a small higher high, then dropped back in the range. Upon the opening, price dropped to the low of this range, then broke out towards yesterday’s high. It found resistance and is chopping sideways
- The market does not seem to have enough fuel to go towards the 84-85 level. My bias is that price will not break the 84-85 level, so I’m taking a short here (trade #1). Given the small ranges, I’ll not trade multiple contracts. Profit target filled, should have traded 2 contracts though 
- Waiting for price to come to the 73-74 level. It seems to find support at OR mid / S1, just above the 73-74 level. Taking a long (trade #2). If momentum picks up, I’ll add another contract. Added when momentum picked up (RVOl above average, $tick positive again). Profit target #1 hit, moving stop of #2 to breakeven. Profit target #2 hit
- Return from dinner, see another long opportunity at S1 but decide not to take it and close it for today. The afternoon action past couple of trading sessions is a couple of points only

On days like this, I forget why I don’t like range days

Trade 1: +2.75 points
- Fade of upper range
- $tick is making lower highs (on 2 min basis)
- Short, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at PP
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Should have traded the 2 contracts and kept 1 runner

Trade 2: +9 points
- Fade of lower range
- $tick is bearish, not supporting the long (as expected)
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 3 points
- Long, 1 contract, risk 2.5 points, profit target at yesterday’s high
- Profit target #1, +3 points
- Profit target #2, +6 points
- Hindsight: No comments

Nice haul for a lull day when even the ETH range is only 11p so far
Congrats, @GruttePier !

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Old August 22nd, 2016, 03:48 PM   #535 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Thanks!
Next goal is to make the daily range on big days also

One and a half more week to go, hopefully volume will return then.

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Old August 24th, 2016, 11:07 AM   #536 (permalink)
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Aug 24th prep

Market overview ( am / CET)
- Japan, up 0.6%
- China, down 0.7%
- Europe, up 0.2 -0.4%
- Oil, down 1.1%
- Gold, down 1.0%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is neutral.
Slightly negative to neutral news released this morning. Oil report at 10.30am (16.30 CET).

Important price levels
- 2191. High
- 2184-85. SR level, confluencing with yesterday’s close and low
- 2173-74. SR level. Just below S3 and ADR low

Overnight made a new low and traded below yesterday’s VWAP.
Upon the opening, the small opening gap got filled and price is trading below the 84-85 level.

Since OTF is still at the beach, I’m expecting another small range day with little volume.
This is confirmed by 1.75 point opening range and the sideway’s chop since the opening.
My bias is negative and that price will fail the tests of the 2184-85 level. I will therefore be looking for shorts from this level initially and be humble with profit targets.

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Old August 24th, 2016, 03:55 PM   #537 (permalink)
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Aug 24th

Context log
- Overnight made a new low and traded below yesterday’s VWAP. Upon the opening, the small opening gap got filled and price is trading below the 84-85 level in a 3 points range
- Took a short after a failed test of the 83-84 level (trade #1). Price is chopping sideways, probably waiting for the oil report in 15 mins. No action resulting from oil report. Profit target hit
- Looking for rinse repeat. Price pulled back to S2, I’m not going to take it. Good call, price pulls back little further
- BBQ, wine, quick check on market, more wine, quick market check, ATR 1.1, no more trading.

Trade 1: +3.5 points
- Fading significant price level
- $tick is neutral due to low volume. RVOL(14) does not show volume behind this move
- Short, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at PP weekly
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nice and patiently trade

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Last edited by GruttePier; August 25th, 2016 at 04:15 AM.
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Old August 24th, 2016, 06:16 PM   #538 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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I just discovered your log and it's very nice. I also trade ES so following along with you will surely be helpful for me as well.

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Old August 25th, 2016, 11:09 AM   #539 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
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Posts: 615 since Dec 2013
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Aug 25th prep

Market overview ( am / CET)
- Japan, down 0.2%
- China, neutral
- Europe, down 0,9 -1.1%
- Oil, down 0.3%
- Gold, down 0.5%
- Bonds, down 4/32

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
Slightly positive news released this morning, various new releases throughout the day.

Important price levels
- 2183-84. Upper range for 3 weeks
- 2173-74. Lower range for 3 weeks
- 2165-66. SR level (30 min)

Overnight made small downtrend below yesterday’s VWAP.
Upon the opening, price made a small newer low at S1 (failed A_down) just below the OR. It then made a A up and pulled back to VWAP.
Opening gap of 2.5 points.

Since price is a little below the 3-week range and OTF has not returned yet, I’m expecting (small) buyers to step in and move prices back in the Range of Boredom. Atleast filling the opening gap.
I will be looking for longs initially.

With 31 degrees Celsius (88 F) today, the kids swimmingpool is very tempting. I don’t expect to trade the whole session and will likely fire up the BBQ again.

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Old August 25th, 2016, 01:15 PM   #540 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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Posts: 615 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 856 given, 1,891 received
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Aug 25th


Context log
- Overnight made small downtrend below yesterday’s VWAP. Upon the opening, price made a small newer low at S1 (failed A_down) just below the OR. It then made a A up and pulled back to VWAP.
- Took a long (trade #1) and added when price seemed to gain momentum. RVOL is not confirming the move up though and price is chopping sideways just below my profit target of #1. Price makes a swift pullback to VWAP, then return to SD1 again and makes a high 1 tick below my 1st profit target. Price pulled back to VWAP again and moves higher now. Profit target #1 hit. Moving stop of #2 to breakeven since I must leave for 30 mins. Return to see that profit target #2 was missed by 1 tick, déjà vu of #1. Out of #2 at breakeven
- BBQ time, done for today

Trade 1: 3 + 0 = +3 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Internals look weak. At moment of writing, $tick makes a +500 print
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s close
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s VWAP / ADR high
- Profit target #1 hit, +3 points
- Breakeven #2

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