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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,705 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old July 20th, 2016, 10:32 AM   #521 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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July 20th prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 0.2%
- China, up 0.9%
- Europe, up 0-1.4%
- Oil, down 1.7%
- Gold, down 1.2%
- Bonds, down 6/32

Oil report at 10.30am (16.30 CET).
Overall sentiment is slighty positive.

Important price levels
- 2067-68. SR level + R3
- 2051-52. SR level, yesterday’s low

Overnight action looks strong. Price found support at yesterday’s VWAP and made a high outside right at the price level that I’m looking at for a couple of day’s already.
Opening gap of 5 points.

I'm expecting an up day where price will try to break through the 67-68 level.
On the downside, it might find support at levels like yesterday’s high (tested overnight) and yesterday’s VWAP (overnight low). Volumes are probably still low, so I don’t expect mega trends.

I’ll be looking for longs primarily until my bias is proven otherwise.

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Old July 20th, 2016, 10:48 AM   #522 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Hey- you made the range today!!! Good work, good read of what was happening.

Yeah, time to make the range on big days also

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Old July 20th, 2016, 04:04 PM   #523 (permalink)
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July 20th


Context log
- Overnight action looks strong. Price found support at yesterday’s VWAP and made a high outside right at the price level that I’m looking at for a couple of day’s already. Opening gap of 5 points
- Upon the opening, price is going down on positive $tick prints. Market is testing the availability of sellers. Looking for a long. Long around yesterday’s high / R1 (trade #1), seems to be some support there. Prices moves lower and nearly closed the opening gap. Price goes back to R1 (support becomes resistance). Price breaks through R1. Profit target #1. Closing #2 because oil report comes out in a couple of mins
- The oil report did not cause any significant price reaction. I resume my hunt for a long on a pullback. Price creeps towards the 67-68 price level. It’s there exactly. I would appreciate a pullback, but not sure if it’ll come. Taking a long (trade #2), accepting the risk is being too early. Divergence with $tick showing up, taking a small loss because I expect price to pullback
- Price does not pullback, but seems to breakout and $tick looks better. Taking a re-entry (trade #3). Price moves up to weekly R1, pulls back to R3. Price is chopping for an hour in a tight range. When price does not move up more than 2 ticks during positive $ticks, I close the position with a small loss. Damn, price moves up. Having reset my $tick to a 2 minute timeframe shows a building of upwards pressure instead of weakness like on the 1 minute. Looking at the price action from my bias perspective, price has successfully broken through the 67-68 level. It then found resistance at weekly R1 and pulled back to the 67-68 level. Sofar, price is still acting in line with my bias and I cannot ignore the long (trade #4). Price has made 2 attempts to break the HOD, it’s now doing a 3rd attempt. I’ll be out if this one fails. Stopped by the double decker 

Well, that last setup took me 3 trades (2 re-entries). I feel that I take more wrong exit decisions than good decisions based on $tick. Most of the time, I find myself exiting too early because there is conflicting information on the $tick (the way I am interpreting it). I’m micro-managing it. I’ve set my $tick from 1 minute to a 2 minute interval and will experiment with it. You can see the difference below, a 1 minute timeframe is simply to fast in my case.

Trade 1: +6.75 points
- Pullback to yesterday’s high
- $tick looking weak, not supporting this trade
- Long, 2 contracts, risk 4 points, profit target at OR high and 67-68
- Profit target #1, +3 points
- Closing #2, +3.75 points
- Hindsight: The entry was a little early, I could have known that yesterday’s close incl. gap fill was a stronger “magnet”. Other than that, a nice trade. I like trading right after the open, these give very good opportunities

Trade 2: -0.75 points
- Entry when price finds resistance. Might be early, but might miss the run up otherwise
- $tick looking strong, mostly printing above 0
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below ADR high
- Closed, -0.75 points
- Hindsight: Closed it was not necessary, 2nd time i a couple of days that I let myself freakout by $tick divergence at HOD

Trade 3: -1.5 points
- Re-entry of previous trade idea
- $tick not looking weak, supporting the move up
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below ADR high
- Closed, -1.5 points

Trade 4: -1 points
- Re-entry of previous
- Long, 1 contract, risk 2 points, profit target just below ADR high
- Closed, -1 points
- Hindsight: Should have scratched after 3rd attempt to break HOD

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Old July 21st, 2016, 12:55 PM   #524 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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July 21st prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.7%
- China, up 0.5%
- Europe, mixed -0.3 to +0.2%
- Oil, down 1.4%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, up 3/32

Overall sentiment is neutral, uninspired and bored.
Several news events today, but nothing spectacular.
Around 11am price suddenly dropped, I guess this is because of the gas report?

Important price levels
- 2067-68. SR level and yesterday’s close
- 2051-52. SR level

Overnight made a small high out of yesterday’s range, then fell back and has been chopping until 11am. Price then dropped towards S1 where it is now (lunch in ET, dinner in CET)

I'm expecting price to pullback and test the downside one more time. So I’ll be looking for a good shorting opportunity.

I’m glad I did not change my work schedule to watch this 4.5 point range
My advice: Boredom Therapy - Trending Stories And Pictures You Can't Miss


*******************
Edit: No trading for me today
*******************


Last edited by GruttePier; July 21st, 2016 at 03:38 PM.
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Old July 22nd, 2016, 01:09 PM   #525 (permalink)
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July 22nd

Futures Edge on FIO
My last trade before going on vacation for the next 3 weeks.
I spotted a quick trade and took it: +3.5 points.

Wife is packing stuff and doesn't appreciate me doing -as it seems- nothing
I'll buy the familiy an extra icecream of today's profit, lol

I'll be reading "The Logica Trader" of Mark Fisher and be back with hopefully some more trading idea's.
Hope you all will do well over the next weeks, save something for me

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Old July 22nd, 2016, 01:16 PM   #526 (permalink)
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July results

Below are the results of July.

I don't have the time for a thourough evaluation, have to buy the family icecream

See you all in August!
Happy trading.

GP

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Old August 15th, 2016, 11:29 AM   #527 (permalink)
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August 15th prep

Back from a very relaxed holiday.
I read the Logical Trader and will post my notes later.

Market overview
- Japan, down 0.3%
- China, up 0.7%
- Europe, mixed
- Oil, up 1.3%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, down 8/32.

Overall sentiment is slightly positive
Neutral news released today.

Important price levels on 30 min:
- 2085-86 level
- 2080-81 level, confluence with yesterday’s close

Overnight made new highs.
There is an opening gap of 4 points.

The overall volumes are low, daily ranges of the past weeks are small and VIX is low.
The participants (OTF) are clearing still on leave.

I'm expecting another low volume day with no significant price action. It’s possible that the opening gap will be filled.
I’ll be looking for shorts initially. Since the market is at it’s highs, it’s difficult to predict an upper level to fade. I’ll be looking for signs of weakness and resistance to take shorts from.

Due to finishing some holiday stuff, I’m able to trade the morning session only.

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Old August 15th, 2016, 12:25 PM   #528 (permalink)
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August 15th

No trades for me today.
Hopefully OTF will return from holiday soon.

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Old August 16th, 2016, 02:06 PM   #529 (permalink)
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August 16th prep

Market overview (1pm / 19.00 CET)
- Japan, down 1.6%
- China, neutral
- Europe, down 0.6 – 0.8%
- Oil, up 1.6%
- Gold, up 0.4%
- Bonds, down 4/32

Overall sentiment is negative. Volumes are still low.
Neutral to slightly positive news released today.

Important price levels
- 2185-86. SR level on 30 min
- 2175-76. SR level on 30 min

Overnight made lower low and lower high.
Upon the open, price dropped towards the weekly PP / S3 and has been trading in a 5 point range since.

It’s another low volume / volatility day, trading between 2177 – 2182.
I’ll be looking for fades from these levels.

If I’m in any doubt, I will not take the trade. The profit targets seem to be small today, not worth the risk. Good day for practicing my patience and not taking trades.

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Old August 16th, 2016, 02:25 PM   #530 (permalink)
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Care to share your Chart Template


Hey GruttePier,

Been following along and checking in. I like your chart and the way you have it set up. I have been trying to replicate it but no luck. If you could be so kind and share the chart template that would be super awesome and much appreciated!

Dave

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