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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,625 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old July 14th, 2016, 06:17 PM   #511 (permalink)
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July 14th

OK, later than normally but I had some stuff to do tonight and left my positions unattended.

Context log
- Price went up 20 points overnight and stabilized around weekly R2, creating an opening gap of 15 points
- Upon the opening, price is dropping slowly on positive TICK prints. Price seems to find support at R2. In line with bias, taking a long (trade #1). Add at VWAP. Profit target #1 hit. I decide to add (contract #3), price then pulls back to VWAP. Closing contract #2. Once closed, I realize I should not have exited at VWAP, and add (contract #4. Price makes 2 attempts to make a new high but fails. Price pulls back through VWAP, below OR low. Stopped on both contracts.
- Price touched my significant price level, my bias works out by the tick. Taking a long (trade #2). Add at VWAP. I have to leave this evening, stops and profit targets are in place
- Return, both stops are hit

What a fuck day this was, and it’s my entirely my fault:
- I was blinded by bias: price hit my identified levels exactly and I was convinced by the high(er) volatility that this would be a trend day. As such, I kept on trying to trading my bias and trading 2 contracts. My mistake was that I did not adapt to what price was actually doing, instead I was blinded by my bias
- I left trade #2 unattended. As such, I was not able to intervene when things went wrong. It was either the profit target or stoploss to be hit

The only positive thing today was the price levels that I identified earlier were touched as expected.

I don’t mind a loss, but I do mind making stupid mistakes.

Trade 1: 3.5 + 0.75 – 4.75 – 2 = -2.5 points
- Pullback to signficiant price level (ON swingpoint and R2)
- TICK making first positive prints after small low
- Contract #1, long, risk 2 points, profit target OR mid
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target ON high
- Profit target #1, +3.5 points
- Contract #3, long, risk 3 points profit target at 3 points
- Closed #2, +0.75 points
- Contract #4, long, risk 3 points, profit target at ON high
- Stopped on #3, -4.75 points
- Stopped on #4, -2 points

Trade 2: -2.25 – 3.75 = -6 points
- Pullback to significant price level
- TICK showing strength, supporting the trade
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target at HOD
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target at ON high
- Stopped on both contracts

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Old July 14th, 2016, 06:21 PM   #512 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
I hope you killed it!!

Pffff, don´t mention it.

Price did indeed test the levels that I expected, but price forgot to trend. Instead it was ranging and because I was convinced about my bias, I did not adapt to the range day and took every opportunity to add.

On top, I left a trade unattended because I had to do stuff today.
Ofcourse the stops got hit. This scenario did not even cross my mind while I was away, I was only focussed on where to set the profit targets when I left.

Hope you had a good day?

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Old July 14th, 2016, 08:50 PM   #513 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Pffff, don´t mention it.

Price did indeed test the levels that I expected, but price forgot to trend. Instead it was ranging and because I was convinced about my bias, I did not adapt to the range day and took every opportunity to add.

On top, I left a trade unattended because I had to do stuff today.
Ofcourse the stops got hit. This scenario did not even cross my mind while I was away, I was only focussed on where to set the profit targets when I left.

Hope you had a good day?

I am sorry to see that you took a beating out there today. On the bright side, lets take this moment to try and learn a little.

What can you take from this losing day that can benefit your future trading? You can answer this best, but i'll give some ideas

1.) Set an alarm or some sort of reminder so you reevaluate your thesis/bias every hour (or however often you deem necessary). After an open-minded reevaluation, you can determine whether or not you should adjust or keep the thesis/bias. What do you think? I think this may help with bias skewing your vision.

2.) Don't leave a trade unattended! The market can beat you up when you don't watch! Honestly, @lax99 encountered a very similar problem lately regarding leaving the trade on its own. He opted to just be flat when away from the screen.

Try to take this bad day and squeeze some good from it!

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Old July 15th, 2016, 11:35 AM   #514 (permalink)
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July 15th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.6%
- China, up 0.4%
- Europe, down 0.0 – 0.5%
- Oil, up 0.2%
- Gold, down 0.3%
- Bonds, down 14/32

Overall sentiment is mixed.
Several news is released this morning, a mix of slightly positive and slightly negative news.

Important price levels
- 2067-68. SR level + R2
- 2057.50. PP + yesterday’s close + yesterday’s VWAP
- 2051-53. SR level + S1 + yesterday’s low

Overnight trended up nicely, making a high above yesterday’s HOD (RTH).
Upon the opening, price is grinding down slowly.
Volatility is low.

I'm expecting a day where is balancing around yesterday’s VWAP between overnight low (2051-52 zone) and overnight high (2165.50) or the 2067-68 price level as a barrier.

I will be trading in the direction of the VWAP once price reaches above mentioned levels, and I will be taking VWAP/pullback trades in the direction of the extremes.

Since it’s a Friday, I’m likely to trade the morning session only (what’s left of it).

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Old July 15th, 2016, 11:43 AM   #515 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
I am sorry to see that you took a beating out there today.

Never mind, it happens every now & then and is part of the game.
The downside of trading in line with bias is that I get beaten when my bias is not right.


rocksolid68 View Post
1.) Set an alarm or some sort of reminder so you reevaluate your thesis/bias every hour (or however often you deem necessary). After an open-minded reevaluation, you can determine whether or not you should adjust or keep the thesis/bias. What do you think? I think this may help with bias skewing your vision.

Thanks.
Keeping the context log is what keeps me focussed on the market action in relation to my bias.
Yesterday was a strange day in the sense that I had some other stuff to do aswell that took my attention of the market.
Good lesson learned here. Trading requires my dedicated focus.


rocksolid68 View Post
2.) Don't leave a trade unattended! The market can beat you up when you don't watch! Honestly, @lax99 encountered a very similar problem lately regarding leaving the trade on its own. He opted to just be flat when away from the screen.

Right. That's definitly the lesson learned here.
I've left some positions open with stops in place unattended a couple of times now and almost everytime that was not a smart thing to do.

Thanks for being with me

Now let's move on

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Old July 15th, 2016, 11:55 AM   #516 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Never mind, it happens every now & then and is part of the game.
The downside of trading in line with bias is that I get beaten when my bias is not right.


Thanks.
Keeping the context log is what keeps me focussed on the market action in relation to my bias.
Yesterday was a strange day in the sense that I had some other stuff to do aswell that took my attention of the market.
Good lesson learned here. Trading requires my dedicated focus.


Right. That's definitly the lesson learned here.
I've left some positions open with stops in place unattended a couple of times now and almost everytime that was not a smart thing to do.

Thanks for being with me

Now let's move on

Oh yeah! Good luck trading today. I am glad to see you getting better and making progress.

I look forward to your trade log!

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Old July 15th, 2016, 05:03 PM   #517 (permalink)
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Context log
- Overnight trended up nicely, making a high above yesterday’s HOD (RTH). Upon the opening, price is grinding down slowly and finding support and PP / yesterday’s close
- Price pulls back to the trendline just below the VWAP, taking a short in line with bias (trade #1). Not much is happening, price is chopping sideways in a narrow range. Price can go either way, it’s just a gamble. I’ll not add given the small profit potential. I see a lot of buyers in the T&S, but the sellers keep on absorbing the orders. I guess it’s game of who’s fading away last. OK, the sellers won this small Friday afternoon pissing contest. Now let’s break the LOD. It’s broken with a generous 2 ticks. Chances of mega down trend are small, taking a small profit. I don’t have the patience for another pullback to VWAP.
- Price does move down further, in line with my bias. Waiting for a long entry when price is near yesterday’s low. A $tick-price divergence at LOD is now showing. Long at the anticipated price level (trade #2). Price does indeed attract buyers at this level and price bounces off. Price cannot penetrate the previous low and chops for almost an hour. Price falls through, stop hit

Trade 1: +2.5 points
- Pullback to VWAP / trendline
- Neutral
- Short, risk 2.5 points, profit target just above yesterday’s low
- Closed when lost confidence of price moving further
- Hindsight: My bias played out, did not have the patience to wait for this. Closed too.

Trade 2: -2 points
- Bounce of (/near) expected extreme price level of the day
- $tick divergence
- Long, risk 2 points, profit target at PP / yesterday’s close / yesterday’s VWAP
- Hindsight: Setup just didn’t work, market was weaker than I thought

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Old July 19th, 2016, 10:53 AM   #518 (permalink)
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July 19th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 1.3%
- China, down 0.6%
- Europe, down 0.8% - neutral
- Oil, down 0.5%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, up 7/32

Housing in line with consensus, Red Book slightly worse than expected.
Overall sentiment is neutral / slightly negative.

Important price levels
- 2167-68. SR level and R2
- 2151-52. SR level and overnight low

Overnight price dropped on low volume and made a low at the 2151-52 price level.

I’m expecting a low volume day with price ranging between the 2051-52 and 2067-68 level.
I will be looking for fades from these levels.

Allthough it's 31 degrees (Celcius) here, I don't expected much heat today given the low volumes

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Old July 19th, 2016, 02:47 PM   #519 (permalink)
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July 19th

Context log
- Overnight price dropped on low volume and made a low at the 2151-52 price level. Price then pulled back a little and is ranging in a 5 point range since
- Price made a new RTH low, making a nice divergence with $tick. I was too late with the entry, looking for another opportunity for a long. Found it (trade #1). Price grinds higher. Price pulls back to VWAP, I’m not adding given the small potential versus the risk (range sofar is 5 points). Price pulls back to OR low / S1, then bounces back. Hopefully making a new high. If not, I’ll close the position and might reverse to short. $tick printing > 600, profit target hit
- The PP / HOD level seems a strong level (tested twice today) and might very well be the extreme price level on the upperside today. Taking a short (trade #2). It works out well, price is grinding lower. Price pulls back to VWAP and a divergence on $tick is showing up. Closing it with small profit. Price does not reverse and hits my profit target 

I’ll go enjoy the nice summer weather instead of the low volume market.
Tomorrow is another day.

Trade 1: +3.5 points
- Pullback to OR low
- Divergence with $tick
- Long, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at PP / HOD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nice one

Trade 2: +1.25 points
- Fade of extreme
- Not supporting this
- Short, 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 2151-52 level
- Closed at VWAP when $tick divergence appears
- Hindsight: Not a good decision, the trade idea eventually worked out well. Can’t have ‘am all, for the same matter closing the trade like I did would have been a good decision.

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Old July 19th, 2016, 07:21 PM   #520 (permalink)
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Hey- you made the range today!!! Good work, good read of what was happening.

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