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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,650 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old July 7th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #501 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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July 7th

Context log
- Overnight was choppy and made a high above yesterday’s HOD
- Upon the opening, price is creeping and successfully tested the overnight high. I’m looking to enter long on a pullback. Entered short instead of long (pushed the wrong button, trade #1) and closed immediately. Went long (trade #2). Added contract. Seems like it’s difficult to change contracts at 2100.00, price is finding resistance there. Profit target #1 hit. Price is pulling back. A clear divergence is showing on the TICK, I’m closing contract #2. Closing #2 seems to be a good decision since price is pulling back further
- I’m in doubt to enter at VWAP or wait for price to go to OR high (or not). The VWAP level seems to hold, taking a long (trade #3). Price is very choppy today, my pitfall is getting caught by impatience/emotions. Good day to work on this. Add 2nd contract. Caught by oil report, even though I mentioned this in my prep. Amateur error, stupid.
- Need to do some stuff, no trading. I return and see this opportunity of price pulling back OR low and the trendline after it broke the 2091-92 price level. Taking a short (trade #4). Will not add since I’m not convinced that my bias is wrong (yet). Return from dinner to see that profit target has been hit and price is indeed trending down. This should have been my big winner today
- Had to leave trading for a while. Return and see a nice setup with price pulling back to PP (trade #5)

Allthough the day ended with a small profit:
- I had to step away from trading a couple of times today, so I was not fully focussed and missed a couple of opportunities
- I unnecessarily increased the risk on trade #3. The loss should have been less. I have no problem with the fact that this setup just didn’t work.
- The profit on trade #4 should have been bigger by trading 2 contracts instead of 1

I'm not able to trade tomorrow since I'm preparing our party this weekend.
Wife, kids and I are turning 100 years old together this year. A good reason to throw a big party
(including dog 101 years)

Trade 1: 0 points
- Pushed the sell button instead of the buy button
- Closed immediately

Trade 2: +4.75 points
- Pullback to OR high / VWAP
- TICK is supporting by printing above 0 only
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target just above 2100
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target at R1
- Profit target #1, +3.5 points
- Profit target #2, +1.25 points
- Hindsight: Good/bad decision to close????

Trade 3: -1.75 – 5.25 = -7 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- TICK is neutral
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target just above HOD
- Contract #2, long, risk 4 points, profit target at significant price level 2104-05
- Closed #1, -1.75 points
- Closed #2, -5.25 points
- Hindsight: I increased my risk while my stats clearly show that this is not necessary. I needed to put my ego away and accept the losses earlier

Trade 4: +3.5 points
- Pullback to OR low
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target just below LOD
- I did not add because of dinner and because I was not confinced yet that my bias was wrong
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Trading this one with 2 contracts would have resulted with a nice profit for sure

Trade 5: +1 point
- Pullback to PP
- TICK looking very weak and supporting the short
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at ADR
- No adding because the potential for a runner is limited
- Closed it after price failed to break lower for the third time
- Hindsight: Looks like a good decision

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Old July 11th, 2016, 10:39 AM   #502 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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July 11th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 3.9%
- China, up 1.5%
- Europe, up 0.9 – 1.6%
- Oil, up 0.3%
- Gold, down 0.4%
- Bonds, down 13/32


Overall sentiment is positive.
US labor index released at 10am (16.00 CET), no other news expected today

Important price levelS
- 2116. Yesterday’s VWAP + PP
- 2105-06. SR level

Overnight made a new high.
Opening gap of 7 points.

I'm expecting price to make new highs today and testing support at yesterday’s high or close.
I will be looking for longs today and buying on pullbacks.

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Old July 11th, 2016, 03:52 PM   #503 (permalink)
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July 11th


Context log
- Price made a new ATH overnight and has been chopping since
- Upon the open, price is chopping upwards looking to takeout overnight high. In line with positive bias, taking a long (trade #1). Added. Price is moving sideways, battle between buyers and sellers. A TICK divergence is showing up, closing #1 with small loss (-1 pts) to reduce my risk of price closing the opening gap. Curious to see if the R1 support will hold. It doesn’t, stopped out on #2 (-3.5 pts)
- Price made a lower high at OR high. Price finally through the OR. Will it close the gap? It seems to find little support at yesterday’s high and TICK looks exhausted, taking a long (trade #2). Added when price went through OR low. Support is becoming resistance -> price is testing R1 / OR mid. Now the VWAP needs to be taken. VWAP taken. Profit target #1 hit. Next stop is ON high. I’m hoping for a pullback so I can add. Price touches ON high. If price does not break it, it’s an official range day. TICK looks strong (wide SMA), so I think it will break. It does. Price is chopping around IB high. A TICK divergence is showing at the HOD. Price is chopping around HOD and the TICK divergence gets worse by a lower low. Taking profit on #2
- VWAP and OR high are confluencing. This would be a nice pullback level and even nice level for me to step back in. Checked price during dinner: Damn, price did break out
- Price did not reach R2 and is grinding down. Price makes a lower high and goes down with momentum. Looking for a pullback to VWAP. Price seems to find support just above IB high and keeps chopping. The ATR(14) is 1.2, almost the final hour and price will likely keep chopping

Trade 1: -4.5 points
- Opening trade at OR high
- TICK is print above 0 only and supporting this
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target just above ON high
- Contract #2, long, risk 3.5 points, profit target just below R2
- Closed #1, P&L: -1 points.
- Stopped #2, P&L: -3.5 points.
- Hindsight: The setup just didn’t work, good to close #1 to reduce risk when I lost confidence

Trade 2: 4.25 + 4.5 = 8.75
- Pullback to yesterday’s high
- TICK exhaustion
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target at OR high
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target at R2
- Profit target #1, +4.25 points
- Closed #2, +4.5 points
- Hindsight: TICK was making lower highs which caused me to close the position. What I did not notice was that TICK was making lower lows but price was making higher lows. So, price remained strong while price as weak. This was a clear sign for price breaking out. See below:

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Old July 12th, 2016, 12:42 PM   #504 (permalink)
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July 12th prep

Market overview (11.30am / 17.30 CET)
- Japan, up 2.4%
- China, up 1.6%
- Europe, neutral (UK) – 1.6%
- Oil, up 2.8%
- Gold, down 1%
- Bonds, down 19/32

Overall sentiment is positive.
Neutral news released today.

Important price levels
- 2037-38. SR level + yesterday high + R1
- 2020-21. SR level

Overnight made a new high.
Upon the open, price made another new high, then dropped below the opening range and is back at HOD currently.
Volatility is low (ATR14 = 1.0) and the daily range is only 7 points sofar.

I’m expecting price to either grind up frustratingly low, or to be pulling back towards the 2037-38.



----------------------------------------
No trades for me today.


Last edited by GruttePier; July 12th, 2016 at 02:57 PM.
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Old July 13th, 2016, 11:21 AM   #505 (permalink)
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July 13th prep

Futures Edge on FIO
Market overview
- Japan, up 0.8%
- China, up 0.4%
- Europe, down 0.1 – up 0.1%
- Oil, down 1.3%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, up 9/32

Overall sentiment is neutral.
Oil report at 10.30am (16.30 CET) and Beige book at 2pm (20.00 CET).

Important price levels
- 2152.25 Overnight high, ATH
- 2037-38. SR level on 30 min + yesterday’s low
- 2020-21. SR level

Overnight made a new ATH high.
Then dropped upon the opening, finding support just below the PP and is pulling back to OR low.

Price is at ATH and important new is released at the end of the day.
I’m not expecting significant price changes until the release of the news.
It will likely be a consolidation day.

I will not take any trades before the oil and see what happens.
If I decide to take a trade at all today, I’ll be looking for shorts on high levels and a long from the 2037-208 level.

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Old July 13th, 2016, 04:12 PM   #506 (permalink)
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July 13th

Context log
- Overnight made a new ATH high. Then dropped upon the opening, finding support just below the PP and is pulling back to OR low.
- Oil report comes out, price jumps around. Price looks strong and seems to find support at PP, taking a long (trade #1). Price makes a small higher high in the OR but cannot proceed further. Pulls back, closing it with small profit
- Price looks weak and NQ is weak. I still have my negative bias and take a short at VWAP (trade #2). I decide not to add since it’s a 7 point range day and don’t want to get caught by this. Taking profit just above overnight low
- Price goes down further, wish I stayed longer in the trade . I’m in doubt to enter long at S1 already or wait for price to come to yesterday’s low. When I decide to go long here it’s already too late and I don’t want to chase it. Looking at it now, I could easily have entered it. Price goes to IB low, then pulls back again
- My bias is that it’s a range day. It’s therefore not likely that price will break through the LOD now (despite the 1:1 pullback). Taking a long when price touches the R1 weekly and overnight low (trade #3). Added 2nd contract on sign of strength. Price is ranging between R1 and OR low. Not sure if price will go much higher and the dog is waiting for a walk. Closing it.

Almost the daily range in profit, it’s my next goal

Trade 1: +0.5 points
- Pullback
- TICK making higher highs
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target at yesterday’s high
- Closed with small profit
- Hindsight: Good that I closed. Next time, don’t trade this chop

Trade 2: +3.5 points
- VWAP trade
- TICK making new low
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target just above yesterday’s low
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nice trade

Trade 3: 3 + 3.5 = +6.5 points
- Pullback to price level (R1 weekly and overnight low)
- TICK showing less weakness, it´s not making another low
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target at VWAP
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target just below yesterdays high
- Profit target #1, +3 points
- Closed #2, +3.5 points
- Hindsight: Should have added when price pullback to R1 weekly. Other than that, a very nice trade

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Old July 13th, 2016, 04:49 PM   #507 (permalink)
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Food for thought on trade #3:

Once you got the first contract off at VWAP, why did you not add once price came back down to your entry price? You could have done a "rinse and repeat" trade a few times from there.

Great trading out there! I just thought I ought to dissect your thoughts

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Old July 13th, 2016, 05:09 PM   #508 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
Food for thought on trade #3:



Once you got the first contract off at VWAP, why did you not add once price came back down to your entry price? You could have done a "rinse and repeat" trade a few times from there.



Great trading out there! I just thought I ought to dissect your thoughts

He Rock,

It was only after-the-fact when I realized that I could have re-entered twice. See the hindsight comment on #3.
Will save that for the next time

Thanks!



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Old July 14th, 2016, 10:34 AM   #509 (permalink)
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July 14th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.9%
- China, up 1.1%
- Europe, up 0.4 – 1.5%
- Oil, up 1.4%
- Gold, down 1.5%
- Bonds, down 21/32

Overall sentiment is positive.
Slightly positive news released this morning on jobless claims and PPI.
Oil report at 10.30am (16.30 CET) and Fed balance sheet after market.

Important price levels
- 2168.00 Overnight high
- 2156-57. Overnight swingpoint and R2
- 2152-53. Yesterdays high (ETH)

Price went up 20 points overnight and stabalized around weekly R2.
Opening gap of 15 points

I'm expecting a volatile day up, where price will test support at 2156-57 or 2152-53.
I will be looking for longs primarily and enter on the levels identified above.

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Old July 14th, 2016, 05:01 PM   #510 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Market overview


Important price levels
- 2168.00 Overnight high
- 2156-57. Overnight swingpoint and R2
- 2152-53. Yesterdays high (ETH)
Price went up 20 points overnight and stabalized around weekly R2.
Opening gap of 15 points

I'm expecting a volatile day up, where price will test support at 2156-57 or 2152-53.
I will be looking for longs primarily and enter on the levels identified above.

I hope you killed it!!

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