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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,625 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old June 28th, 2016, 04:15 PM   #491 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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June 28th

Context log
- Overnight made went straight up from yesterday’s low towards yesterday’s high.
- Upon the opening, price is slowly grinding up (very choppy). Since the HOD around 10 pm, it’s making lower highs & lows towards the OR. Taking a short (trade #1) at VWAP with profit target at OR mid. Add upon momentum. Price misses my profit target by 1 tick, then bounces back. Testing VWAP, then breaks through OR high. Profit target on contract #1 hit. Price tests OR low, then pulls back to OR high (right at the trendline). Too late for another add, price drops and makes another lower low. Price goes bak to OR mid /trendline again. I will not add, since momentum is decreasing and I’m starting to doubt if price will go towards R1 level. Have my stop of #2 at breakeven. Indeed, stopped at breakeven. Dinner
- Price has touched the price level 2016-17 and is pulling back in a nice downtrend. Nice divergence on the TICK confirming strength for breakout below. Taking a short (trade #2). Add when momentum increases. Stopped out on both contracts when price moves up with force
- Price breaks the 2016-17 price level. I don’t want to chase it, missing a nice run though 

I’m not able to trade tomorrow, but maybe part of Thursday's afternoon session.

Trade 1: +3.75 + 0 = +3.75 points
- VWAP trade
- TICK looking great by decreasing up ticks and increasing down ticks
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at OR mid
- Contract #2, short, risk 3 points, profit target just above R1 (ambitous)
- Profit target on #1, +3.75 points
- Breakeven on #2
- Hindsight: Nice. Too bad price did not break out to the downside

Trade 2: -2.5 – 4.5 = -7 points
- Short on pullback to trendline/yesterday high/OR high
- TICK divergence confirming a breakout to below
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target just above LOD
- Contract #2, short, risk 3 points, profit target at ADR low
- Hindsight: Setup didn’t work unfortunately

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Old July 5th, 2016, 12:08 PM   #492 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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July 5th prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 0.6%
- China, down 1.4%
- Europe, down 1.6-1.7% (UK up 0.2%)
- Oil, down 4.0%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, up 20/32

Slightly negative news released this morning.
Overall sentiment is negative.

Important price level
- 2096-97. SR level, PP
- 2074-75. SR level (30 min chart)

Yesterday was a public holiday.
Overnight made lower lows and lower highs. Today opened with an opening gap.

I'm expecting price to be ranging between the opening range and 2074-75 level. I will trade it as such with VWAP trades and fades of the extremes. I have a preference for shorts today since market looks weak.

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Old July 5th, 2016, 12:43 PM   #493 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Market overview
- Japan, down 0.6%
- China, down 1.4%
- Europe, down 1.6-1.7% (UK up 0.2%)
- Oil, down 4.0%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, up 20/32

Slightly negative news released this morning.
Overall sentiment is negative.

Important price level
- 2096-97. SR level, PP
- 2074-75. SR level (30 min chart)

Yesterday was a public holiday.
Overnight made lower lows and lower highs. Today opened with an opening gap.

I'm expecting price to be ranging between the opening range and 2074-75 level. I will trade it as such with VWAP trades and fades of the extremes. I have a preference for shorts today since market looks weak.


Hey @GruttePier,

I really like your journal and I think that it has helped numerous amounts of other FIO members, I being one of them.

So, my question to you is: how do you determine trend days and range days?

I have my own way of doing this using contextual evidence. As you know, defining context and how to use it isn't necessarily easy. However, I'll try!

First step for me is looking at the ON session and seeing if it was ranging or trending.
Second, I look at resistance/supports on both sides (path of least resistance and general context).
Third, I recall what the bias/trend is for the last few days/week/month etc.
Fourth, I like to see what the global sentiment is. (FDAX, Nikkei, etc.)
Fifth, I look at price relative to the ON session. So, where the RTH opens.

This is a brief explanation of how I determine a range or trend day. I am curious as to what yours is!

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Old July 5th, 2016, 01:20 PM   #494 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
Hey @GruttePier,

I really like your journal and I think that it has helped numerous amounts of other FIO members, I being one of them.

So, my question to you is: how do you determine trend days and range days?

He Rock,

Thanks, I hope you and others will benefit from my journal also!

I've realized lately that it is not important to know if it's going to be a range day or trend day.
For example today: I had (still have) a negative bias for today because of the overnight action and negative sentiment on other markets. I also expected the 2074-75 level to be a significant price level today. Since volatility is low, it's likely that this 2074-75 level will be the lower range level for today. However, if this 2074-75 level breaks then it's likely that price will drop further.
What I mean to say is, it is not important to know if it's going to be range or trend day. It is important to see if the 2074-75 level is going to hold or not. If so, you can call it a range day. If it doesn't hold, you might call it a trend day.

This is the way I'm looking at it lately. Hope it makes sense


rocksolid68 View Post
I have my own way of doing this using contextual evidence. As you know, defining context and how to use it isn't necessarily easy. However, I'll try!

First step for me is looking at the ON session and seeing if it was ranging or trending.
Second, I look at resistance/supports on both sides (path of least resistance and general context).
Third, I recall what the bias/trend is for the last few days/week/month etc.
Fourth, I like to see what the global sentiment is. (FDAX, Nikkei, etc.)
Fifth, I look at price relative to the ON session. So, where the RTH opens.

This is a brief explanation of how I determine a range or trend day. I am curious as to what yours is!

Yeah, we basically look at the same stuff.
Do you look at other pivots too? Like yesterday's VWAP, weekly+daily pivots, etc?

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Old July 5th, 2016, 01:39 PM   #495 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
He Rock,

Thanks, I hope you and others will benefit from my journal also!

I've realized lately that it is not important to know if it's going to be a range day or trend day.
For example today: I had (still have) a negative bias for today because of the overnight action and negative sentiment on other markets. I also expected the 2074-75 level to be a significant price level today. Since volatility is low, it's likely that this 2074-75 level will be the lower range level for today. However, if this 2074-75 level breaks then it's likely that price will drop further.
What I mean to say is, it is not important to know if it's going to be range or trend day. It is important to see if the 2074-75 level is going to hold or not. If so, you can call it a range day. If it doesn't hold, you might call it a trend day.

This is the way I'm looking at it lately. Hope it makes sense


Yeah, we basically look at the same stuff.
Do you look at other pivots too? Like yesterday's VWAP, weekly+daily pivots, etc?

Great! We are very similar in our thinking. I try to identify trend vs range as a way of "measuring" risk and reward.

Example: if I expect a range day, I will be aiming for larger targets than on a range day. Make sense?

I completely understand what you mean though. I agree that the label you give a day is not important; how you trade it is.

If you look at my journal (I haven't updated it in a while), the charts are similar to what I use now.

In the following link is an image of my main trade screen. It is a 2-minute chart with TICK and Cumulative Delta Volume plotted on it. It looks messy, but I am used to it and I am successful with it! Haha.

https://gyazo.com/e577b18fcb54b46f4af177086f666d16

I also have PnF charts, 30 minute chart, daily, other market charts, and a few others. I use everything that @Inletcap uses except Pivots. @Inletcap is my mentor as well as my idol, and I attribute most of success to him, hence why I trade using similar things as him.

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Old July 5th, 2016, 04:09 PM   #496 (permalink)
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July 5th

Context log
- Price dropped overnight, making lower lows & highs
- Right after the open, price continued to go lower and found support by making 2 lows within 3 tick range. Price then touched OR low and moved down again
- Divergence with TICK, taking a long (trade #1). Price nearly hit my stop, then moved back to VWAP. Added along the way. Profit target #1 hit, breakeven on #2
- Price chops lower and finds support at IB low. Price looks exhausted. Another TICK divergence is showing up, taking a long (trade #2). Price touches VWAP, but then pulls back. Slow choppy market it is. Stopped out
- Price has made a new LOD and is pulling back. Taking a short around the significant price level (trade #3). Add at IB low. Price makes a higher low at the significant price level, but looks weak. I decide to stay in the trade despite what seems now to be a higher low. Price does move lower and hit my profit target. Unfortunatly, price pulls back and closes contract #2 at breakeven

Done for today.

Trade 1: +3.5 + 0 = +3.5 points
- TICK divergence near LOD
- Contract #1, long, risk 3.5 points, profit target just above VWAP
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target at OR high
- Profit target #1, +3.5 points
- Breakeven #2
- Hindsight: Luckily my stop was not touched. Nice trading on botch contract #1 and #2

Trade 2: -3 points
- TICK divergence near LOD
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target at 3 points
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Set up (fading the extreme) didn’t work. No guarantees in this game

Trade 3: +2.25 points
- Pullback to significant price level
- Contract #1, short, risk 3.5 points, profit target just above LOD
- Contract #2, short, risk 3.5 points, profit target just below LOD
- Profit target #1, +2.25 points
- Breakeven #2
- Hindsight: Nice trade

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Old July 5th, 2016, 04:13 PM   #497 (permalink)
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June evaluation

My main goals for June were:
(1) Increase the expectancy (specifically the average winning trade)
(2) Trade multiple contracts

Regarding (1) Increase the expectancy:
Despite taking a small profit on the first contract, I’ve managed to increase the overall expectancy.
The average losing trade remains stable (between 2.5-2.6 points/trade) and the average winning trade has increased. I’ve succeeded on this one

Regarding (2) Trading 2 contracts:
I believe I mentioned this before in my journal, I felt very comfortable with trading 2 contracts rightaway.
Taking a small profit on the first contract is a smart thing to do in my case/stats (credits to @TapIn). This takes the emotional pressure of the trade.
When trading multiple contracts, I take a small profit on contract #1 and save contract #2 for a runner or close it at break even. By having this mechanical process, I don’t have to take decisions while in a trade. As indicated by Michael Douglas (Trading in the Zone), it’s very difficult to take a good/objective decision when you’re in a trade.
Regarding the entries with 2 contracts, I generally add the second contract once I see that price has gained momentum in my favor. By this, I reduce the risk of getting stopped out on 2 contracts. This works well for me sofar.

Another thing that I am proud of this month, is having increased my daily profit as a percentage of the ADR. While my average profit is only 17% of the daily range, it shows that there is a lot of room for further improvement. It also seems that the stats (second table) are becoming -sort of- stable. This gives me the confidence that I'm on the right path and it's not only luck sofar.

In June, I also did a webinar on how I'm trading. I feel flattered by being asked and thank you all for the positive feedback . I sincerely hope that it's of use for other struggling trades

I don´t have any specific goals for July.
It´s likely to going to be a low volume period (despite the BREXIT anxiety) and we’ll be on holiday at the end of July for 3 weeks. I’ll consider the next trading weeks as a period of consolidation and further refinement of my entries.

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Old July 6th, 2016, 03:27 PM   #498 (permalink)
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July 6th prep

Market overview (2.15 pm / 20.15 CET)
- US markets up 0.2 – 0.5%
- Japan, down 1.8%
- China, down 1.2%
- Europe, down 1.2 – 1.8%
- Oil, up 1.8%
- Gold, up 0.7%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is positive.
Several positive new released earlier today. FOMC minutes releases 20 mins ago, which is interpreted as negative.

Important price level
- 2091-92. Important SR level
- 2074-75. Improtant SR level, + S1

Overnight made 2 wild 20 point swings.
Since the released oil report, price has been trending up and found resistance around the R1 level.
The FOMC minutes caused some chop, but no major price movements.

I’ll be watching the market for the next hour with an intention not to trade. My bias is negative, only if I see a good short opportunity with confirmation of internals then I will trade it.

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Old July 6th, 2016, 04:51 PM   #499 (permalink)
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July 6th

Price broke out, making a new but not convincing HOD just below the significant price level. Took a short with a small profit target at yesterday´s high. Price does indeed go down and is chopping around R1. Price tests the HOD and makes a new HOD exactly at the anticipated significant price level. Price is chopping. Just when I want to close at break even prices moves in my favor, touches my profit target but does not get filled . Closed at breakeven.

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Old July 7th, 2016, 10:33 AM   #500 (permalink)
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July 7th prep


Market overview
- Japan, down 0.6%
- China, up 1.0%
- Europe, up 0.7-1.4%
- Oil, up 1.3%
- Gold, down 0.5%
- Bonds, down 10/32


Overall sentiment is positive.
Severall positive news released today, gas and oil report at 10.30am and 11am.

Important price level
- 2004-05. SR level, near R1
- 2091-92. SR level
- 2074-75. SR level + S1 + ADR low

Overnight was choppy and made a high above yesterday’s HOD.

I'm expecting a low volume day (not much action overnight, VIX below 15 again) where price will be testing new highs. I’m expecting it to test the 2005-06 level on the upside and the 2091-92 level on the downside. Not expecting much action, so my primary hypo is that price will be ranging between these levels.

I will be looking for longs on pullbacks (preferable from the 2091-92 level) and fading the 2105-2106 level. If price breaks either of these levels, I’ll be trading it as a trend.

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