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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:39,286 / 758
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old October 31st, 2015, 04:30 PM   #41 (permalink)
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"Profit as a percentage of total risk: -19% --> -23% --> 5% --> 10% --> +6%"

You're moving very much in the right direction, here.

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Old November 2nd, 2015, 05:06 PM   #42 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Nov 2

Low volumes, low daily range and prices around the HVN of last Friday.
No trading today because my system (/me) is not good in this type of market.

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Old November 4th, 2015, 04:08 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Nov 4


Total profit: -4.5 pts

Setup 1, 0 pts. Nice setup, but closed at breakeven. Given the ATR of 1.94, I should have set the profit target at 1.5 pts instead of 2 and made a small profit
Setup 2, -1.5 pts. Met support on the POC just below my entry, stopped out
Setup 3, -3.0 pts. Nice setup, but did not workout

I'm following FT71's trader bites and studying volume profiles to see if this helpes me understand market context and recognize the good and bad trading days on forehand.

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Old November 5th, 2015, 03:43 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Nov 5

Profit: 5.5 pts

Setup 1, 3.25 points. Nice trade just above the LOD. Second contract got stopped out, unfortunatly missing a very nice run. Anyway, these are the rules and my job is to follow them
Setup 2, 1.75 points
Setup 3, -2 points. This opportunity came just after closing previous trade. While update logs, I noticed the entry rules being met and jumped on the gun. As soon as I did that I saw the first signs of chop. Closed the trade. Hindsight: I would have been stopped out
Setup 4, +2.5 points

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Old November 6th, 2015, 01:20 PM   #45 (permalink)
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Nov 6

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Profit: -8.25 pts

Setup 1, +1.5 pts. Got stopped out at breakeven unfortunatly and then missed a run of 4 pts. It's easy in hindsight. Satisfied with this trade, the profit of 1.5 pts is the result of executing the system.
Setup 2, -2.5 pts. Did not spot the trendline breakout (stupid) and therefore traded it the trendcontinuation (L1). Got stopped out which is very logical.
Setup 3, -3 pts. Entered this H1 setup, turned out to become a chop place. Stopped out
Setup 4, +5.25. Yeah, spot on
Setup 5, - 3.5. Setup didn't workout.
Setup 6, -4 pts. Setup didn't workout. Should not go long just below resistance of VWAP / daily 50%.
Setup 7, -4 pts. Setup didn't workout, turned into chop.
Setyp 8, +1.5 pts.

I'm not satisfied with todays trading and the results at all.
Regarding my execution of the system, the loss on setup #2 was completely unnecessary. I also should not have taken setup 6. I would have taken the other trades the same next time.
Regarding the results, the market has moved a lot of points today. Somehow I was not able to turn this into profit with this system. Most of the trades had a stoploss of 1.5 - 2.0 points. A larger stoploss would not have helped. What would have helped is a daily loss limit.

Anyway, I'm here to learn and glad I'm trading on the sim. I've been trading live a lot previously. For me, my emotions with sim trading are the same as with live trading. Sim is no playground for me, it's real. Todays loss therefore really got me, even though it's just on the sim.

As of now, I will not trade once the daily loss limit is reached which is 3 times the risk per setup (6 points in this case).

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Old November 9th, 2015, 03:30 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Nov 9

Profit: -4 pts

Setup 1, -3 pts. H1 entry on a low value node. Should not have taken this trade because it was a chop area (5 previous bars in the same range) and thereby agains my rules. Was too enthousiastic on entering on LVN
Setup 2, +2.5 pts. L1 entry on a low value node. Was watching the composite POC level since July 24th at 2064.50, price made a fast pullback from there. Note to myself: Maybe I should include profit targets at significant price levels into my trading instead of just trailing price religously
Setup 3, -2 pts. Nice setup just below S2 pivot, but didn't workout. Closed the traded based on action in T&S. Hindsight: good decision, would have been stopped out.
Setup 4, -3 pts. Saw price moving from high volume node to low volume node. As an experiment, I entred this trade, unfortunatly ending up with a loss. I should not do these kind of trades, since I made a commitment to myself to stick with my trading rules. I should have taken this trade as a mental experiment, not as an actual trade (on SIM, influencing my stats).
Setup 5, 1.5 pts. Nice setupwith an entry just above the composite POC and a breaktrough the daily POC. Too bad I got stopped out at breakeven for the 2nd contract.

I am studing volume profiling and see the value of it. I've not found ways to include t his into my trading yet. Did some experiments today by entering on low value nodes. However, these experiments influence the stats of my current trading system. Until I have thoroughly backtested new/updated rules, I should execute these mentally only and not on the sim.

End-of-day evaluation: setup 1 and 4 were against my rules and influenced by my personal "volume profile hype". If I hadn't taken these, the day would have ended in profit. Stuff to think about. Not happy with my trading discipline at all.

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Old November 9th, 2015, 05:26 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Hi Grutter, as per our PM exchange, few pointers on market profile. Topic his huge, study and look around and build your own idea how to use it. Some best books I read on this topic

A six part study guide to Market profile from CBOT (the best in my opinion)
Mind over markets - Jones Dalton
Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with Market Profile - Steidlmayer

You want to start with Auction market theory, try to google something

To sum up, imagine some priceless art auction where auctioneer starts advertising some price. Now with the interest from buyers he can go up. If there is no interest he can lower the price until he attracts some buyers. It can happen that he starts at 100, lowers to 80, attracts buyers, and they push it even above initial 100. This is one way to look at market we are working with. Market is place where hundredths of opinions meet, and only way to find out what is good price is to advertise higher or lower and see what happens. If the price is low, buyers start buying. Too high and you get sellers. In the end it looks like decreasing oscillation. You establish extremes, unfair high and low, and then you trade in middle and build value (POC). This is where balanced profile comes from.

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Until some new information comes into place and market shifts to new price level, and again tests up and down till it finds balance. Now, we usually divide trade activity by time. Open and close, and ON session. Distributions can happen over several days, or you can have shift in the morning and balance in the afternoon.

Market profile (time over price) and volume profile (volume over price) are just tools that try to track this. They show you price which is most accepted, and show you when market is moving out of this zone into new one. Profiling can show you important areas that market wants to test and retest. Those are areas where you can expect some response in market. VPOC, edges of value area, extremes, areas from past where we saw some reaction. Most of the traders take a look at profiles in previous days, and they compare current's day action with previous day's levels.

We mentioned Friday in PM. ES is not my market but I'll try to point something out.
Let us use FT71 Friday's trader bite, and notice how he uses levels from profile of previous days to pinpoint price levels where market can do something important. He did call possible test to 94.25 as Thursday's VPOC and possible test to 97. Market did test these levels. Failed to move higher. Formed a double top and moved swiftly down through opening. For FT71 the moment when he starts to look for short is break below 88, which is low volume area on Thursday's profile and also edge of value area. So at this moment you have information that market tested up (advertised prices up) found a strong response, and moved below value of previous day (or last accepted price levels). He also called that his targets are 81 and possibly 79. One is composite VPOC for last 6 days, second is FOMC day H. So he used profile to draw himself a map, from where to where he wants to go. He wanted something like 6-8p trade.

This is how many traders use profiling. They use to draw a map before market opens, and then they wait till market shows up to the predetermined zone of interest. They are trying to identify situation where market has potential to make a decent move, in places where it attracts bigger players, or just big enough response to shift it significantly.

That is how you can use profiling.

I want to point one more thing on your Friday's trading. Notice that you have most of the trades in the zone where you have decreasing oscillation. We established H and L of the day very early on (imagine it as auction first up, sellers came in, drove it significantly lower, unfair price, buyers came in, and they all agreed somewhere in middle), and then we traded in the middle building value. You took most of the trades in the zone where there was general agreement on price and no big move was happening. That is difficult to trade. This building of value stopped later in the day, when market moved out of it and tested opening (not on your chart).

I hope it helps at least a little, but again it is huge topic. Be patient, and remember that frustration means that you are learning something new and making progress. I'll be happy to help in any capacity. Good luck.

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Old November 10th, 2015, 04:02 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Nov 10

Profit: 4.5 pts

Traded 1 setup. An H1 entry on a low volume area after price tested support on the VAH (and Globex open). Caught a very nice and sudden price burst.

I came up with 3 scenario's for today when I started my trading (around 17.00h): (1) ranging within yesterday's value area, (2) uptrend towards of Friday's LVA and (3) downtrend towards the naked POC at 2055.50.

Price was ranging within yesterday's Value Area until the end of the day. More specifically, it was oscillating between yesterday's POC (high) and the POC since July 24th (low). Interesting...until recently I was not aware that price would respond so clearly on these price levels and actually shoot through low volume area's like it did at the end of the day.
I will definitely study more on volume profiling and see if I can incorporate it in my system.

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Last edited by GruttePier; November 10th, 2015 at 04:50 PM.
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Old November 11th, 2015, 03:45 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Nov 11

Profit: -2.5 pts

Setup 1, -1 pts. Short entry below current VAL and yesterday's VAH, closed the trade once large orders on the offer came in. Good decision in hindsight, would have been stopped out otherwise.
Setup 2, +1.5 pts. L1 entry below current VAL. Price broke through yesterday's VPOC with power, stopped out on the 2nd contract at breakeven, nice trade.
Setup 3, -3 pts. Price did not want to go below yesterday's VPOC, stopped out on pullback. I should not have taken this trade, since it broke out of the trendline. I spotted this in hindsight however. Unnessessary loss.

Low volumes due to Veteran's Day.
Had to leave early to celebrate Sint Maarten with the kids :-)

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Old November 12th, 2015, 04:10 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Nov 11


Profit + 1.5 pts

Had my doubts initially on this entry because the pullback from 2050.25 to 2054.50 was caused by several large 500+ contract orders. Decided to take the entry anyway. Stopped out with 2nd contract on breakeven unfortunatly.

Moving the stop to breakeven once the profit target of contract 1 has been hit gives me a lot of emotional comfort. Its the second time this week though Im missing a nice run on the second contract because I get stopped out. Allthough tempting, I will not change my rules just because this happened twice in a short period. The rules have proven to work in backtesting and should get consistently profitable first.

I'm happy with using MP sofar. It helps to identify taking trades in low volume areas instead and not take trades in high volume areas because I seem to get stopped out there quite often. Still impressed in how price responds so well on price levels as VPOC, VAH, VAL work. Take for example the naked vpoc at 2045.50. It was touched briefly, price then pulled back.

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