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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,982 / 747
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old June 23rd, 2016, 04:20 PM   #481 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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First let me say thanks for the webinar I really enjoyed it. Its helpful to hear someone who has been struggling find some confidence and success.



My question is about your analysis of the 22nd. You had said a breakout upwards was more likely than a breakout to the downside. I am curious what factor went into that bias.



Thanks


I'm happy to read that you found the webinar helpful. I think the "afternoons with" are going to be a success because it's traders like you and me who are discussing their trading.

Regarding the 22nd.
My primary thesis was that price would stay between the 2 significant price levels.
If price would break out (secondary thesis), I would expect a breakout to the upside and not the downside because the overnight action was strong, it made higher highs and higher lows.


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Old June 23rd, 2016, 04:22 PM   #482 (permalink)
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Really enjoyed your webinar. Love the stats! Will you be tracking stats on the first and second contracts separately so that you can compare their relative performance?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm going to do


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Old June 23rd, 2016, 05:11 PM   #483 (permalink)
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Great webinar


Thanks for the webinar. It's really great to hear from other traders going through the same "pain" we all are, and not selling us anything.

Way to give back

Great work with the stats for your trading and breaking things down.

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You don't get smarter IN a trade - FT71
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Follow here. Vote for Jon Snow's King of the pits! here

Last edited by IequalsS; June 23rd, 2016 at 05:25 PM. Reason: additional points
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Old June 24th, 2016, 04:18 PM   #484 (permalink)
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June 24th

Came back from work late and had a small opportunity to trade.
I could not resist taking this opportunity, it resulted in my biggest single trade ever: +13.25 points.

Watching price going down further and further, I was wondering who is actually going long?

Have a nice weekend all!

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Old June 27th, 2016, 11:31 AM   #485 (permalink)
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June 27th prep

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Market overview
- Japan, up 2.3%
- China, neutral
- Europe, down 1.9 Ė 3.5%
- Oil, down 2%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, up 27/32

Overall sentiment is not that difficult to find out, itís negative.
No more news released today

Important price levels
- 2015-16. SR level (30 min)
- 1985.50. SR level (dated March)

Overnight made lower lows and lower highs.
An opening gap of 10 points.

I'm expecting a negative day with price trending down, looking to find a support level where buyers will step in.

I will be trading today as a trend day downwards, taking short on pullbacks.

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Old June 27th, 2016, 04:25 PM   #486 (permalink)
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June 27th

Context log
- Overnight made lower lows and lower highs. An opening gap of 10 points
- Price is trending down since the opening, making lower highs and lower lows
- I’m looking for an entry on a pullback a previous swing point just above ADR low. Price does not seem to make this pullback, going short (trade #1). Add. Profit target on contract #1 filled. Seems like price is finding buyers around weekly S1, price is pulling back. Bigger buyers are stepping in. Closing contract #2 with small loss.
- Another entry on a pullback (trade #2). Stopped out on contract #1 by the sudden volatility. Price seems to find support on the weekly S1. Price is chopping and activity increases. Despite the large buy orders, the buy orders get absorbed. Price making new LOD. Profit target contract #2 hit. Hmmm…, I’m flat now while I should be having a runner
- Price is finding buyers around the weekly S1 and S2, sofar the sellers win. Looking for a short on a pullback to IB low or weekly S1. Looks like the S2 level turns into resistance, taking a short (trade #3). Add when price makes a new LOD. I must be careful by not getting screwed by chop. Which happens now, price makes the a first higher high of the day. Closed #1, then #2.
- Look at how nicely price moves between the -1SD and -2SD bands sofar. Volatility is definitely back in the market
- Price touched IB low at -1SD, taking a short (trade #4). I’ll not add on this one, until price confirms it’s weakness by making a lower low. Price moves in my favour. As expected, price makes a higher low and TICK is making higher low. Moving stop to breakeven, I’m not going to take a loss on this one. Closed at breakeven.
- Entered the short at VWAP (trade #5). Price moves in my favour. Pullsback and seems to make a higher high. Closing the trade with a small loss
- Price is making a nice H&S pattern, entering short at VWAP (trade #6). Price moves against me, then falls. Profit target hit
- Price seems to find resistance at the weekly S1 (important price level sofar). Taking a short (trade #7). Price moves in my favour towards the significant price level, then pulls back to weekly S1. Then something strange happens. TICK is making high prints (+600) but price doesn’t move any further. Very strange feeling, because my “feeling” tells me price was going to explode and stop me out. This doesn’t happen and price goes 2 points lower instead. I close the trade when momentum turns. I realize too late that I should have placed my stop above the VWAP and not just below it and miss the short opportunity from the VWAP. Frustrating to see price moving in “my” direction now

Overtrading…who? Me?
Today had a lot of opportunities. Looking back at my trades, I was trading the noise instead of the bigger price action resulting in getting stopped 3 times near the worst price level.
I’m not happy with my trading today, but I guess a day like this is necessary to re-adjust to the volatility which has (hopefully) returned.

Trade 1: +3 – 1.5 = +1.5 points
- Short entry on pullback
- TICK is supporting the short with the lower lows
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at S1 weekly
- Contract #2, short, risk 3 points, profit target at S2
- Profit target contract #1 hit, +3 points
- Closed #2, -1.5 points
- Hindsight

Trade 2: -1.75 + 4.5 = +2.75 points
- Short entry on pullback
- TICK is supporting the short, allthough price made +600 TICKS for the first time today
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at LOD
- Contract #2, short, risk 3 points, profit target at S2
- Stopped on contract #1, -1.75 points
- Profit target contract #2, +4.5 points
- Hindsight:

Trade 3: -2.5 -5 = -7.5 points
- Short entry on pullback to S2
- TICK making lower lows
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at +4 points
- Contract #2, short, risk 3 points, profit target not determined yet
- Stopped on contract #1, -2.5 points
- Closed contract #2, -5 points

Trade 4: 0 points
- Short entry on pullback to IB low / -1SD
- TICK just made a high print, can be more supportive
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit taget just below LOD
- Closed at breakeven

Trade 5: -2.25 points
- Short from VWAP
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at IB low
- Closed when lost confidence

Trade 6: +4 points
- Short from VWAP, pattern looks like H&S
- Contract #1, short, risk 4.5 points, profit target at IB low
- Profit target hit

Trade 7: -2.25 points
- Short from weekly S1
- TICK looking weak
- Contract #1, short, risk 4 points, profit target just above LOD
- Closed it at momentum going the wrong way

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Old June 28th, 2016, 11:46 AM   #487 (permalink)
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June 28th prep

Market overview
- Japan, neutral
- China, down 0.2%
- Europe, up 2.6 Ė 3.1%
- Oil, up 2.2%
- Gold, down 0.7%
- Bonds, down 11/32


Overall sentiment is positive.
Several positive new releases this morning, no further new expected.

Important price level
- 2022-23. SR level + R2
- 2016-17. SR level
- 1981-82. SR level

Overnight made went straight up from yesterdayís low towards yesterdayís high.
Upon the opening, price is slowly grinding up (very choppy). Since the HOD around 10 pm, itís making lower highs & lows towards the OR.

Large opening gap of 24 points.

Iím expecting price to try to find itís support and resistance levels back, after the action since the referendum. It will likely stay within the 2016-17 and 1981-82 level. Since the upside has been tested today already, Iím expecting price to test the downside later today. Until price breaks out of the 2016-17 level, Iíll be looking for shorts. If this level breaks, then Iíll be interested in longs.

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Old June 28th, 2016, 11:57 AM   #488 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Market overview
- Japan, neutral
- China, down 0.2%
- Europe, up 2.6 Ė 3.1%
- Oil, up 2.2%
- Gold, down 0.7%
- Bonds, down 11/32

Hi GP

I was meant to ask, what source do you use to determine where each market is?

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Old June 28th, 2016, 12:12 PM   #489 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Hi GP

I was meant to ask, what source do you use to determine where each market is?

Hi,

I use: Stock Market Data & Financial Markets Summary - Wall Street Journal

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Old June 28th, 2016, 12:16 PM   #490 (permalink)
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Excellent, thank you...

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