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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,614 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old June 15th, 2016, 10:37 AM   #421 (permalink)
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June 15th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.3%
- China, up 0.3%
- Europe, up 0.8 Ė 1.3%
- Oil, down 1.7%
- Gold, down 0.3%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment in Europe is positive.
Relative good news released this morning on mortgages, PPI, production and ES manufacturing.
Oil report at 10.30am (16.30 CET) and ofcourse FOMC at 2pm (20.00 CET) + Yellen at 2.30pm

Important price levels
- 2077-78. SR level (30 min chart)
- 2071-72. SR level (30 min chart)
- 2060-61. SR level (30 min chart)

Overnight tested the 2060-61 level, then set a high 2-ticks above yesterdayís high.
Upon the opening, price failed to test this level making a lower high.

The markets will be cautious in anticipation of FOMC at 2pm (20.00h CET) and Yellen at 2.30pm.

I'm expecting price to be ranging in the morning session between 2060-61 and 6071-72. Given the good news on eg. Inflation and manufacturing, price might test the 2077-78 level.

I will be trading today as a range day, with fades of the just mentioned levels. Having a small positive bias, so I will definitely be looking for longs for breakoutís through the 2071-72 level

I will not be trading after 2pm when FOMC and Yellen dominate the large intraday swings.

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Old June 15th, 2016, 01:35 PM   #422 (permalink)
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June 15th

Context log
- Overnight tested the 2060-61 level, then set a high 2-ticks above yesterdayís high. Upon the opening, price failed to test this level making a lower high and a higher low. Price tests ON high and succeeds with 1 tick, then pulls back slightly. Looks like buyers are fading away
- Trying a short, anticipating price will test the sell-side of the market and possibly close the opening gap (trade #1). Price makes a 1 tick higher high. Chop is forming, looks like a 50-50 chance of this trade idea working out. Looks like price made a small higher low, not good for me. T&S looks like itís gonna make a new HOD, reversing the position to long for a small profit at 2076-77 level (trade #2). Price pullsback to VWAP / 2071, then tests the HOD. Add 1 contract in anticipation of breakout. Price makes a double top at HOD, then pullsback quick when sellers step in. Iím not happy with the 2nd contract since price is chopping for 1 hour now, closing it with tiny profit. Stopped on contract #2. Trade error: the stop was 2 positions while I already scaled down to 1 contract. Due to this error made a small unintentional profit. This is my 3rd trade error in 2 days
- Looking for a pullback to VWAP to take a short for potential gap closure. Taking a short at OR high (trade #3). Price is chopping between OR low and VWAP. I donít expect any significant moves before FOMC, closing the trade

OK, back to earth with a losing day.
Iím not able to trade tomorrow and probably also not on Friday.

Trade 1: -2.25 points
- Fade of (expected) extreme
- TICK making lower high prints (but too early to assess really)
- Short 1 contract, risk 3.5 points (stop above R1 and weekly S1), profit target just below LOD
- Closed, P&L -2.25 points
- Hindsight: Good to close the trade

Trade 2: -2.25 points
- HOD breakout
- TICK looking strong with only a couple of negative prints
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target at 2076-77 zone
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target just below R2
- Closing contract #1, +0.25 points
- Stopped contract #2, -3.5 points
- Trade error by unintentional short, + 1 point
- Hindsight 1: I should not have added the second contract. Given my bias of price bouncing of the 2077-78 level, the reward is too small in relation to the risk exposure of 2 contracts
- Hindsight 2: Good that I took 1 contract of when I realized I was taking more risk than I wanted
- Hindsight 3: This was my 3rd trade error in 2 days. I should focus more on preventing misunderstandings between me and NT

Trade 3: 0 points
- Pullback to OR high
- TICK printing -800, confirming the short
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target in the opening gap
- Closed at breakeven

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Old June 16th, 2016, 04:35 PM   #423 (permalink)
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Please tell me you didn't miss trading today???

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Old June 16th, 2016, 06:29 PM   #424 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Please tell me you didn't miss trading today???

I was hoping that today, despite the FOMC clearing the sky, would be another boring 6 point day. Then I read your post and assumed that the range would probably be larger than 6 points. Then I saw that I missed a 30 point day!

I'm sure you did well today with the nice pullbacks. Hope that others were doing well today also.


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Old June 17th, 2016, 10:35 AM   #425 (permalink)
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June 17th prep

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Market overview
- Japan, up 1%
- China, up 0.6%
- Europe, up 0.9-1.4%
- Oil, up 2%
- Gold, down 0.4%
- Bonds, down 2/32

Overall sentiment is positive.
US housing in line with expectations, no other significant news expected today.

Important price level
- 2089-90. SR level. Just below R2 and weekly PP
- 2075-74. SR level and weekly S1
- 2060. PP and weekly S2
- 2054-55. SR level

Overnight made a small higher high, then chopped sideways.

Not sure what to expect today.
Itís a Friday, not significant news, BR referendum next Tuesday.

For now I assume price is range between 2060 (maybe lower 2055) and 2074.
If price breaks out, Iíll be trading it as a breakout.

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Old June 17th, 2016, 12:39 PM   #426 (permalink)
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June 17th

Context log
- Overnight made a small higher high, then chopped sideways until the opening
- Upon the opening, price goes lower and finds support at weekly S2. Makes a lower high, right at the trendline followed by a double bottom. Price is chopping, looks like itís going to be another low range chop day. I enter long when price fails to make a triple bottom (trade #1). Price breaks out and makes a high. Price is pulling back and I get stopped out on both contracts. The support level is broken, activity increases. Taking a short (trade #2) anticipating that price will move to the 2054-55 zone. Pice moves does further, and pulls back 1 point above my first profit target. Prices makes a lower high (trade idea still intact). Profit target #1 hit. Price pullsback (trade idea still intact), profit target #2 hit . I had the idea of moving the profit target #2 a little lower given the measured move, but I donít want to push my luck of price going below ADR low on this Friday

Good to end the day with a profit.
Overall this has been a good week for me.

Trade 1: -5 points
- Bounce of expected support level
- TICK mostly up TICKS sofar, looks strong despite price chopping
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target OR high
- Contract #2, long, risk 3 points, profit target just below 2074 Ė 75 price level
- Closed, -2 Ė 3 = -5 points
- Hindsight: Perhaps too eager to get in

Trade 2: 4.5 + 6.25 = 10.75 points
- Breakout
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target just above the 2054-55 level
- Contract #2, short, risk 3 points, profit target above the S1 level (measured move)
- Profit target #1, +4.5 points
- Profit target #1, +6.25 points
- Hindsight: Nice

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Old June 20th, 2016, 03:10 PM   #427 (permalink)
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Jun 20th afternoon prep

Starting at 2 pm.

Market overview (2 pm / 20.00 CET)
- Japan, up 2.3%
- China, up 2.3%
- Europe, up 3.0 Ė 3.6%
- Oil, up 2.4%
- Gold, down 0.2%
- Bonds, down 19/32

Overall sentiment is (very) positive.
No news expected today.
Yellen will speak tomorrow.

Price moved higher this weekend, resulting in 23 point opening gap.
Upon the open, price made a couple of higher highs and higher lows, but dropped by making lower highs and lower lows after half an hour. Despite the overnight price jump, the RTH range is only 10 pionts.

Important price level
- 2089-90. SR level (spot on 30 min chart)
- 2085. Week R1
- 2074-75. SR level (spot on 30 min chart) and R2

Iím expecting price to either range within the current 10 points, or drop below the LOD and fill some of the gap.

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Old June 20th, 2016, 04:34 PM   #428 (permalink)
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June 20th

Context log
- Since 10 am, price is dropping slowly. At this moment (2 pm) it seems like it made another lower high right at the trendline which is confluencing with the weekly R1
- I’m taking 1 contract short, anticipating that price is finding resistance and will test the LOD (trade #1). If it breaks, I might add. Profit target hit
- Seems like price is missing momentum for a further break of LOD. Price makes a double bottom, then breaks and makes a perfect measured move. Tempting to take a short, but I’ll better be waiting for a pullback to R3 or OR low/trendline.
- Retailbus setup on the 5 min. Activity increases and price looks week, I decide to take the retail bus (trade #2). The expected breakout does not come and I entered at the worst price of the day. I now see the TICK divergence and the double bottom just made, reversing the position (trade #3)
- Price breaks the R3 level and trendline. R3 level seems to hold, adding 1 contract long. Price moves down, but does not move down further on -600 prints. Looks like an exhaustion, but maybe I’m seeing what I want to see. Price moves down, stopping me on both contracts.

I trapped in a classic trading error today of getting influenced by others while price was moving in line with my initial bias all this time. A very good lesson learned, my own stupid fault.

Trade #1: +3 points
- Pullback to trendline and weekly R1
- TICK is neutral
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at LOD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Caught a nice swing

Trade #2: -2.75 points
- Expected break of LOD
- TICK not supporting
- Contract #1, short, risk 3 points, profit target at 3 points
- Closed
- Hindsight: Did not spot the TICK divergence

Trade #3: -3 – 4.5 = -7.5 points
- Fading LOD
- TICK divergence supporting this trade
- Contract #1, long, risk 3 points, profit target at VWAP
- Contract #2, long, risk 4 points, profit target just below the 2089/90 level
- Stopped on both contracts
- Hindsight: Price was behaving in line with my initial trade idea of breaking the LOD. It made perfect measures moves and measured pullbacks.

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Last edited by GruttePier; June 20th, 2016 at 04:48 PM.
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Old June 20th, 2016, 04:48 PM   #429 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
- Since 10 am, price is dropping slowly. At this moment (2 pm) it seems like it made another lower high right at the trendline which is confluencing with the weekly R1
- Iím taking 1 contract short, anticipating that price is finding resistance and will test the LOD (trade #1). If it breaks, I might add. Profit target hit
- Seems like price is missing momentum for a further break of LOD. Price makes a double bottom, then breaks and makes a perfect measured move. Tempting to take a short, but Iíll better be waiting for a pullback to R3 or OR low/trendline.
- Retailbus setup on the 5 min. Activity increases and price looks week, I decide to take the retail bus (trade #2). The expected breakout does not come and I entered at the worst price of the day. I now see the TICK divergence and the double bottom just made, reversing the position (trade #3)
- Price breaks the R3 level and trendline. R3 level seems to hold, adding 1 contract long. Price moves down, but does not move down further on -600 prints. Looks like an exhaustion, but maybe Iím seeing what I want to see. Price moves down, stopping me on both contracts.

Do you write notes like these while in-trade?

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Old June 20th, 2016, 04:50 PM   #430 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Do you write notes like these while in-trade?

Yes.
This way my thoughts are captured and it doesn't take me much time to update the journal.
Writing down what I think at that moment also helps me in assessing the situation objectively (with exception of today).

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