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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,982 / 747
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old June 13th, 2016, 11:41 AM   #411 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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June 13th prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 3.5%
- China, down 2.5%
- Europe, down 0.9 – 1.4%
- Oil, down 0.4%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, neutral 1/32
No flight to safety (yet).

Overall sentiment is negative.
No news expected today.
FOMC 2-day meeting starts tomorrow.

Important price level
- 2094. R1 + Friday’s highs
- 2089-90. SR level (30 min)
- 2076-77. SR level (30 min)

Overnight (weekend) made a lower low, out of Friday’s range.

I'm expecting price to be trading between the SR levels 2090 and 2076. If price breaks out, I expect it to be on the downside given the negative sentiment at this moment.
Not expecting much action in anticipation of the FOMC meeting.

I will be trading of the 2 mentioned levels, in the direction of the VWAP.

There is strong rise in the VIX past 2 days from 14.7 to 18.3. It’s back at the level of March.
Hopefully this will fuel the markets once there is clarity on the FOMC and Brexit

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Old June 13th, 2016, 03:20 PM   #412 (permalink)
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June 13th

Context log
- Overnight (weekend) made a lower low, out of Friday’s range and found support at the 2076-77 level. It’s been ranging there all night
- Upon the opening, price broke out of this trading range and made higher highs and higher lows towards the 2089-90 level
- Price seems exhausted at this level (high TICK prints, price not moving further, large buyers not stepping in), taking a risky short (trade #1). Added when price went in my favour. Price makes a higher low around the PP / yesterday’s close. A lower high now will conform my trade idea. Price does make a lower high and moves back to VWAP, 1 tick above my profit target of #1 . TICK is confirming my trade idea now by the lower high TICK prints and -800 TICK print
- Price is testing PP / yesterday’s close again, then moves down to VWAP. Profit target #1 hit
- Price is chopping downwards and makes a double bottom in the OR. Profit target #2 hit Man, I love range days!
- Taking a break to prevent myself from being over-courageous
- Allthough there is a TICK divergence at LOD, price is looking weak and ready to break through the 2076-77 level. I´m not taking a long
- Missed the return to VWAP during dinner. Price is chopping down slowly, making a new LOD, then pulled back fast from the weekly S1 level. TICK is looking strong. I don´t think there will be much more action today. I´ll go for a run and enjoy the taste of today´s trading. Note that VIX has increased to 19.x already, I´m curious to what´s going to happen (soon)

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Trade 1: +3 + 6.75 = +9.75
- Fade of an expected extreme
- Not confirming the trade, other than TICK printing +800
- Short contract #1, risk 3 points, profit target just above VWAP
- Short contract #2, risk 3 points, profit target at S1 / yesterday low
- Profit target #1 hit, +3 points
- Profit target #2 hit, + 6.75 points
- Hindsight:


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Old June 13th, 2016, 07:22 PM   #413 (permalink)
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You are dialed in buddy! Way to go... Best day live trading?

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Old June 14th, 2016, 03:54 AM   #414 (permalink)
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You are dialed in buddy! Way to go... Best day live trading?

Thanks!

I experiment on sim first and then go on live, so I switched back to sim to learn trading 2 contracts :-)
The way it goes now, I'll be back on the live account in July


Last edited by GruttePier; June 14th, 2016 at 04:57 AM.
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Old June 14th, 2016, 10:37 AM   #415 (permalink)
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June 14th prep

Futures Edge on FIO
Market overview
- Japan, down 1%
- China, down 0.6%
- Europe, down 0.8 – 1.6%
- Oil, down 1.1%
- Gold, up 0.4%
- Bonds, up 9/32

Overall sentiment is negative.
Slightly positive news released this morning on retail sales, import/export prices and Redbook.
FOMC 2-day meeting has started.

Important price level
- 2070-71. SR level (30 min chart)
- 2060-61. SR level (30 min chart) + S2 weekly

Yesterday closed just above the LOD.
Overnight made new lows and lower highs, then found support at the 2060 level.

VIX is continuing to go higher, it’s at the February ’16 level this morning.

Markets will be cautious in anticipation of FOMC.
I’m expecting price to range between 2060 – 2072 (/ 2077). A breakout below, through the 2060, is more likely than a breakout to the upper side.

I will be looking for shorts today, depending on the price action near the 2060 level I might take a long there. Until my bias is prove otherwise of course.

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Old June 14th, 2016, 04:05 PM   #416 (permalink)
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June 14th

What a day, +15.75 points!

Context log
- Overnight made new lows and lower highs, then found support at the 2060 level
- Upon the opening, price is going higher towards the 2070-71 level, closing the opening gap and going through the 2070-71 level (overnight high). finding resistance just above this anticipated level, then pullback to below the VWAP. Price looks weak, taking a short on the pullback to VWAP / yesterday’s low. Stopped out on a fast pullback to the 2070-71 level
- Taking a re-entry short since my bias is still intact (trade #2) and added. Profit target #1 hit. Profit target #2 hit . Done for today, but’s still early he he.
- I’m not in the market now, will be looking for a re-entry short since price looks very weak. Price pulls back to OR low, taking a small gamble anticipating for a break of the 2060/61 level (trade #3). Added when momentum got confirmed. Profit target #1 hit. Price makes a double bottom at ON low and moves up strong towards S1. Moving stop of contract #2 to breakeven. Stop hit, but not out at -3 points but -2 points (execution error). Ofcourse, due to this error I’m out and missing the move down which I otherwise wouldn’t have missed.
- Price looks weak in T&S and activity is increasing. Jumping in because price does not seem to wait for me (trade #4). Busy day with updating the log and taking trades. Trading is starting to look like work. Profit target #1 hit, by accident closed #2 also. Re-entered at the same price. This was my 2nd trade execution error today, I must be careful and not get myself overwhelmed by the action today. Activity decreases. Price will either break down further (buyers fading away), or pullback in which case I will have to add. Profit target touched, but not filled. Price pulls back and finds its way back. I decide not to add because market might be near its low for today. Sellers seem to be gone, closing contract #4. Early dinner
- During dinner price retraced to OR and is chopping down since. Price broke below the rising trendline, taking a short (trade #5). Price does not go my way, closing the trade
- Price touches VWAP / S1 and finds resistance there. Taking a short (trade #6). I’m not adding since I doubt if price will break today’s low. Profit target hit

Trade 1: -3.75 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target OR low
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Trade idea was good, but trade location not.

Trade 2: 4 + 7.5 = +11.5 points
- Pullback to significant price level
- Internals not supporting the short (yet)
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target OR MID
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target S2 weekly (just above ON low)
- Profit target #1, +4 points
- Profit target #2, +7.5 points

Trade 3: 3 - 2 = +1 points
- Pullback to OR low
- TICK made lower high than previous pullback, not very convincing though
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at LOD
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above S2 (runner)
- Profit target #1, +3 points
- Stopped on #2, -2 points

Trade 4: 3 + 0.5 + 1.75 = +5.25 points
- Missed the pull back, late entry
- TICK is confirming the momentum
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target @ 3 points profit
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above S2
- Profit target #1 hit, +3 points
- Closed contract #2 by accident also, +0.5 point
- Re-entry short (contract #3)
- Closed contract #3, +1.75 points
- Hindsight: Trade error, closed #2 by accident when profit target #1 got hit

Trade 5: -3.25 points
- Break through trendline
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target just above S2
- Closed when price got momentum in the opposite direction
- Hindsight: Good decision, because it exceeded my max risk exposure (4 points)

Trade 6: + 4.75 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- TICK looking weak
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above S2
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nice trade

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Old June 14th, 2016, 05:12 PM   #417 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
What a day, +15.75 points!

That's what I'm talking about!!

You deserve every penny of it- Hard work, dedication, repetition, consistent journal entries, open to new ideas = Pay Off for the rest of your life!

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Old June 14th, 2016, 05:18 PM   #418 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
That's what I'm talking about!!

You deserve every penny of it- Hard work, dedication, repetition, consistent journal entries, open to new ideas = Pay Off for the rest of your life!

Thanks, I learned it from the Master

It's still early to assess, but what a difference does trading 2 contracts make.
For the day result, but also for the ease of mind.

Now let's try to stick to this.

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Old June 14th, 2016, 05:24 PM   #419 (permalink)
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Thanks, I learned it from the Master

It's still early to assess, but what a difference does trading 2 contracts make.
For the day result, but also for the ease of mind.

Now let's try to stick to this.

Thanks!

I think its important that you don't feel you should make twice as much. Some will disagree and that's fine but I believe that initially (going from 1-3 the way that I trade) the additional contract adds to consistency as it takes a lot of emphasis off being right or wrong with your exits as you can take some income and leave a runner.

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Old June 14th, 2016, 05:28 PM   #420 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Inletcap View Post
Thanks!

I think its important that you don't feel you should make twice as much. Some will disagree and that's fine but I believe that initially (going from 1-3 the way that I trade) the additional contract adds to consistency as it takes a lot of emphasis off being right or wrong with your exits as you can take some income and leave a runner.

Right. One does not have to choose anymore between taking a small profit or let it run.
I find this very relaxing, the less I have to think while in a trade the better. It keeps the monkey away.

I notice that the expectancy has also increased significantly, but again it's very early to assess.

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