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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,906 / 746
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old June 7th, 2016, 03:55 PM   #401 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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June 7th

Context log
- Overnight made a new high and set a higher low upon the opening
- Price is chopping a little around OR high, taking 2 longs here (trade #1). Price pullsback slightly to OR mid, then moves up towards R1 to find resistance there. The range is only 5.5 points sofar
- Profit target #1 reached. Price made a new high, just below overnight high
- NQ is dropping sharply and price pullsback towards VWAP. Closing 2nd contract at breakeven because NQ is making new LOD’s. Doubting to re-enter at VWAP, but didn’t do it because NQ was a LOD 
- Price seems to break through overnight high / w R2 (T&S) and NQ has recovered. Better late than never, I re-enter the initial trade idea (trade #2) with 1 contract. Price is chopping just below the overnight high / w R2 . TICK is making new highs, TSI(VIX) is giving warning signals with new lows. Despite TSI(VIX), price is creeping up and looking to find support on the overnight high / w R2
- Price has been chopping for a couple of hours now. I close the trade with a small loss


Trade 1: +3.75 + 0 = +3.75 points
- Entry on SR level
- TICK looking strong
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below overnight high (small profit)
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below R2 (yesterday’s R3)
- Profit target #1, +3.75 points
- Breakeven on #2
- Hindsight: Perfect trade on #1. Breakeven on #2 at the exactly the lowest point, should have given the trade more room or re-entered this trade

Trade 2: -0.75 points
- Entry at new HOD, anticipating break of weekly R2
- TICK and TSI(VIX) are making higher highs
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target just below R2
- Closed it
- Hindsight: News release in 10 mins, don’t want to be in a trade then.

Too bad I closed the 2nd contract of the first trade.

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Old June 7th, 2016, 04:02 PM   #402 (permalink)
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KahunaDog View Post
how did you like the squawk?
I've used the tos one before... had mixed feelings, also used when there was a bigger pit and now it's a little different

It's too early to assess, but sofar I'm liking it.
Are you still using it?

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Old June 7th, 2016, 04:07 PM   #403 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
It's too early to assess, but sofar I'm liking it.
Are you still using it?

No. I don't like being biased by others, it throws my game off. It has helped at times, but I think tick and adv dec is better assesment of sentiment. Though lags, it can help me stay in moves longer. I feel squawk is like a cheerleader in my ear. Too much noise. Been listening to reggae more when I am waiting on trades.

The tos one is free fyi.

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Old June 7th, 2016, 05:38 PM   #404 (permalink)
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KahunaDog View Post
No. I don't like being biased by others, it throws my game off. It has helped at times, but I think tick and adv dec is better assesment of sentiment. Though lags, it can help me stay in moves longer. I feel squawk is like a cheerleader in my ear. Too much noise. Been listening to reggae more when I am waiting on trades.

The tos one is free fyi.

I agree on not letting the squawk giving you a bias and throwing your game off - I still find it valuabe for things like warning me when market-moving events or people are about to take place.

Clearly people who trade with different timeframes/styles react/rely on different tools. My timeframe is similar to @GruttePier's and I could not trade without it.

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Old June 8th, 2016, 11:22 AM   #405 (permalink)
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June 8th prep

Futures Edge on FIO
Market overview
- Japan, up 0.9%
- China, down 0.1%
- Europe, mixed -0.6% / +0.1%
- Oil, up 1.6%
- Gold, up 1.4% (silver up 4%)
- Bonds, up 5/32


Overall sentiment is slightly positive.
No news expected today, other than petrol status report at 10.30am (16.30 CET).

Important price levels
- 2118. Yesterday’s high
- 2106/07. Strong support of SR level, S1, weekly R1 and ADR low
- 2099/2100. Support of SR level and S3

Overnight made a low below yesterday’s LOD. RTH opened around yesterday’s VWAP.
Upon the open, price made a high just above yesterday’s high, then pulled back to OR low / PP.

I'm expecting a range day with price trading between current HOD (@2118) and the 2106/07 support level. If price breaks out, I´m expecting it to break through the 2106/07 support. Not sure why, but it feels like the upward potential is limited (given yesterday´s low volatility).

I´ll be trading today like a range day, meaning fades from the extremes and VWAP trades.

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Old June 8th, 2016, 03:52 PM   #406 (permalink)
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June 8th

Context log
- Overnight made a low below yesterday’s LOD. RTH opened around yesterday’s VWAP. Upon the open, price made a high just above yesterday’s high, then pulled back to OR low / PP
- Price is just below OR low and pulling back to VWAP after the oil report. Going short (trade #1) expecting price to fill the opening gap and then hopefully test the 2106/07 support level. Price does break down and touches my order but it doesn’t get filled. Price pullsback to R1. Moving stop of contract #1 to breakeven in case price pulls back further. Contract #1 closed at breakeven. Stopped out on contract #2 during dinner
- Price has pulled back to VWAP, took a long (trade #2). Because it’s a range day sofar, trading 1 contract only. Profit target hit

Trade 1: 0 – 2 = -2 points
- Pullback to VWAP / R1
- Internals are neutral
- Short contract #1, risk 3 points, profit target just above yesterday’s close
- Short contract #2, risk 3 points, profit target just above S1 / weekly R1
- Breakeven contract #1
- Stopped on contract #2, -2 points
- Hindsight contract 1: Unfortunatly, the order on contract #1 did not get filled. I should be less ambitious with the small profit targets on contract #1, a small profit is good for the moral
- Hindsight contract 2: Should have closed this one at breakeven also, since it was clear that the initial trade idea was not working

Trade 2: +2.75 points
- VWAP trade
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at HOD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Happy with it. Will see tomorrow if it breaks out further

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Old June 10th, 2016, 10:33 AM   #407 (permalink)
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June 10th prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 0.4%
- China, down 1.2%
- Europe, down 2-2.4% (!)
- Oil, down 1.7%
- Gold, up 0.1%
- Bonds, up 10/32


Overall sentiment is negative.
What’s surprising me is that although Europe is down 2.x%, gold and bonds are up slightly. This is not a flight to safety (yet).

Consumer sentiment at 10 am (16.00 CET)

Important price level
- 2090/89. SR level (30 mins)
- 2073.50. SR level (daily)

Overnight made a signficiant drop of 15 points, resulting in a large opening gap.

I'm expecting a negative day. Hopefully volatility is returning.

I will be looking for short from important levels and pullbacks, until my negative bias is proven otherwise.

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Old June 10th, 2016, 12:32 PM   #408 (permalink)
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June 10th

Context log
- Overnight made a signficant drop of 15 points, resulting in a large opening gap
- At the opening, price touched overnight low. Took a short here and another one when price moved down further and did not seem to pullback to -for example- S2 (trade #1)
- Price goes in my favour but profit target just above weekly PP does not get hit. Price pullsback to significant price level (2090/89, OR low, S3) and is finding resistance there. Moving the stop of contract #1 to breakeven. If price moves above OR high, the secenario of closing the opening gap might unfold
- Price makes a double bottom and pulls back strongly to the OR. Definitely a price level that’s defended well. Feeling comfortable with my 2 contract, of which 1 will be closed at breakeven if price goes through OR mid. Joining a breakdown with 2 contracts is well worth the risk of 3 points. Price is testing the double bottom again. Not sure it’s gonna break, closing contract #1 a couple of ticks above the initial profit target
- Volatility is reducing, ATR went from 2.2 -> 1.8 now in half an hour. Price is chopping at LOD for some time. There seems to be more buying pressure in the T&S, then selling pressure. But sofar the buy orders are being absorbed sofar. There’se a clear TICK divergence and higher TICKS are being made. Closing contract #2 because I lose confidence in the trade idea.
- Price pulls back to VWAP. Price breaks through the OR towards the S2 level, it finds resistance there. Looking for a pullback to VWAP/S3 for a long. Looks like the scenario of closing the gap or atleast testing yesterday’s low might unfold
- Long when price pullsback to VWAP (trade #2). Since this trade is against my initial bias and TICK is not confirming the trade with its lower highs, I’ll be trading 1 contract only on this trade idea.
- Price does move up and is finding resistance at S2. Profit target hit

Market is slow and volatility seems to be gone. Not the down-day what I expected (/hoped).
Wife is packing for the boat weekend already and I’m happy with the small profits of today.

This is the first time a made profit that’s as big as the daily range (which is huuuuge, being 8 points today )
Have a nice weekend all!

BTW, I find the squaw very annoying and disturbing. I’m only interested in tier 1 news and not “lesser” news. So I turned it off.

Trade 1: +3.5 + 1.25 = 4.75 points
- Pullback to overnight low
- TICK is negative and supporting this
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above weekly PP
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above ADR low (we’ll see how the day progresses)
- Closed contract #1, P&L: +3.5 points
- Closed contract #2, P&L: +1.25 points
- Hindsight contract #1: Good decision to take the profit
- Hindsight contract #2: Good decision. Breakeven stop would have been hit and also the 3 point stop

Trade #2: +3.25 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at previous high
- Profit target hit, P&L: +3.25 points
- Hindsight: Looks like a good decision, will check it on Monday

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Old June 12th, 2016, 10:11 AM   #409 (permalink)
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Well done GP- that's a prime example of what I meant about "loosening up" to find "more" trades that fit your thesis. Also nice way that you maximized the potential with an add on. Remember how it felt when you knew you nailed it and know when it's time to do the same in the future. Nice work!

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Old June 12th, 2016, 11:28 AM   #410 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Well done GP- that's a prime example of what I meant about "loosening up" to find "more" trades that fit your thesis. Also nice way that you maximized the potential with an add on. Remember how it felt when you knew you nailed it and know when it's time to do the same in the future. Nice work!

Thanks, appreciate your response!
Yeah, I get it about loosening up.

I like trading 2 contracts sofar already. I feel less pressure about being right on both the entry and exit. Taking a small profit on contract #1 takes the pressure of and the backtest show that it has a large effect in the P&L.

I know how it feels, I'm still "high" about Friday's trading

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