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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

  #31 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Oct 26

Traded 3 setups, total profit: -3.5 points.

Due to low volumes, I reduced the initial stoploss and profit target of 1st contract from 2.0 to 1.5 points.

Setup 1: Moved stop with 1 tick above a resistance level after being at 0.75 pt profit. Got stopped out at exactly this point unfortunatly.
Setup 2: Re-entry of the previous trace, stopped out. I should not have taken this trade since I wouldn't have taken it in backtests either
Setup 3: Nice trade, textbook

Intriguing why I took the second setup today.
My rules clearly don't state taking a re-entry. At each decision point during the trade, I marked in my log that I'm following the rules. It's only when evaluating the trade that I found out that I shouldn't have taken this trade at all.

I trust this is lack of experience: Running into specific situations for the first time during live trading, situations that don´t occur during backtests.

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Last edited by GruttePier; October 26th, 2015 at 05:01 PM. Reason: Grammar
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  #32 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Prague
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 29 received


GruttePier View Post

My goal is to become consistently profitable on the SIM for at least 3 months in row.
Only then, I will make the next step to trading live.

GP

From your first post.
Are you trading live already? Are the posted results since 15-Oct live?

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  #33 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



SadPraetor View Post
From your first post.
Are you trading live already? Are the posted results since 15-Oct live?

No, they are on an SIM account. I'm not profitable for 3 months in a row yet.

Why do you ask?


Last edited by GruttePier; October 27th, 2015 at 03:39 AM.
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  #34 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Oct 27

Traded 2 setups, total profit: -4 points.

Setup 1: Setup just didn't workout. Stopped out just before I wanted to close it
Setup 2: Setup didn't work either. Proud to have left the trade before getting stopped out

Allthough the day did not end in profit, I'm satisfied since I've executed my trading rules.
Today's endresult is just what my rules get out on a day like this.

My trading rules work well on days with high volume and a high daily range.
They're not good on low volume and boring days like today and yesterday.

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  #35 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Oct 28

Total profit: + 4.5 pts

Setup 1, 0 pts. Saw no follow-through in T&S and a pullback. Closed it at breakeven. Good decision in hindsight
Setup 2, -4 pts. Didn't work out. Hindsight: I entered in chop, should have spotted that initially
Setup 3, +3.75 pts. Closed below the trendline, then pullback (failed trendline overshoot), lots of activity in T&S. Entered on H1(/H3). Very tempting to take profit on second contract near high of the day, but decided to follow the rules :-)
Setup 4, +4.75 pts. Risky trade because of resistance (R3) just below HOD. No confincing breakout of HOD, decided to reduce profit target to 1.5 pts instead of 2.0 pts. Tempting to close the trade during the run of the 2nd contract, but decided to follow my holy rules.

Whould have been a very nice day if I was able to trade the morning session also.

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  #36 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
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Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Thoughts on low volume days

Low volume days kept me thinking today.

Days with low volume and small daily ranges are consistent loosing days for me.
Just like Monday and Tuesday this week.

I need to decide to:
a. Not trade on low volume days. In this case I need to learn to recognise this type of day and sit on my hands. For example: less than average volume, small daily ranges (<15 points), ...

or,

b. Trade with adjusted rules. Advantage is that I am in the market and learning. The trading rules should be different. I'm thinking of trading 1 contract only with a fixed profit target of for example 1 point. I have my doubts if that will be profitable though.

Any thoughts/feedback is appreciated.

GP

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  #37 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Prague
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: YM
 
Posts: 41 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 11 given, 29 received

a) Trying to recognize days with little opportunities, would require you to add higher level of tracking markets. Higher time frame, looking several days back. Most of the traders here (I guess) use profiling (market or volume) to do this, all the rave these days.

As example, last 3 days. We knew that we have FOMC report on Wednesday, very important report. Markets do not tend to make big moves. Big players tend to be already positioned few days ahead before such report so they do not participate and do not move markets much. Also if you look on profiles last days, you see small ranges, balanced profile, overlapping value areas and ranges, little volume and no new news that can move it (granted, reporting season is in progress). Together with the fact that we just had strong rally in last weeks, without any serious pullback, and market is currently on top of such rally, it all points to the fact, that market will wait for FOMC before making any new development.

As you see, it requires some experience, and study. Possible to be done. You can take a look at FT71 channel on youtube, he does such preparation each day and shares it with traders.

b) You can also add some new play to your book. What I understand from your posts, you trade established trends (small time frame) and you are trying to enter on pullbacks. Simply put, you need bigger player to shift market to some degree, and you just taking a ride with him. In range bound days, such player is not present, so the price is not pushed enough for you to be consistently profitable. You can play the opposite, mean reversal. You will counter trade push to edges, aiming to ride price back to mean of range. Signals like double top/bottom, etc. Again, it does help to know what day to expect, to have a game plan

c) you only follow one strategy, and hope that it plays out positively in long run. Stressful, but simple

d) small game you proposed can work, run a backtest. But again in good days you miss on good profits if you don't adjust fast enough

This is the part of trading that is difficult. One day you are on top of the hill, because strategy is working. Next day market changes and you are loosing. Can be frustrating, as you think you have no idea what you are doing. You need to hold to the fact that in long run it evens out.

GL

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  #38 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Oct 29

Total profit: + 3.25

Traded the morning session only.
Prepared the trading day with FT71's Trader Bite (thanks @SadPraetor).
Again a day with low range day and lacking big players for piggybacking nice rides.

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  #39 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


SadPraetor View Post
a) Trying to recognize days with little opportunities, would require you to add higher level of tracking markets. Higher time frame, looking several days back. Most of the traders here (I guess) use profiling (market or volume) to do this, all the rave these days.

As example, last 3 days. We knew that we have FOMC report on Wednesday, very important report. Markets do not tend to make big moves. Big players tend to be already positioned few days ahead before such report so they do not participate and do not move markets much. Also if you look on profiles last days, you see small ranges, balanced profile, overlapping value areas and ranges, little volume and no new news that can move it (granted, reporting season is in progress). Together with the fact that we just had strong rally in last weeks, without any serious pullback, and market is currently on top of such rally, it all points to the fact, that market will wait for FOMC before making any new development.

As you see, it requires some experience, and study. Possible to be done. You can take a look at FT71 channel on youtube, he does such preparation each day and shares it with traders.

b) You can also add some new play to your book. What I understand from your posts, you trade established trends (small time frame) and you are trying to enter on pullbacks. Simply put, you need bigger player to shift market to some degree, and you just taking a ride with him. In range bound days, such player is not present, so the price is not pushed enough for you to be consistently profitable. You can play the opposite, mean reversal. You will counter trade push to edges, aiming to ride price back to mean of range. Signals like double top/bottom, etc. Again, it does help to know what day to expect, to have a game plan

c) you only follow one strategy, and hope that it plays out positively in long run. Stressful, but simple

d) small game you proposed can work, run a backtest. But again in good days you miss on good profits if you don't adjust fast enough

This is the part of trading that is difficult. One day you are on top of the hill, because strategy is working. Next day market changes and you are loosing. Can be frustrating, as you think you have no idea what you are doing. You need to hold to the fact that in long run it evens out.

GL

Thanks for your suggestion on market/volume profile. I've never studied this, but see a lot of people on this forum using it. Had a look at FT71 daily bite webinars and will use it as a prep for the trading sessions. It looks interesting and you have a point here. I'm only looking on the 10k volume chart, not on higher timeframes.
I will get back on this when I've some experience with this.

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  #40 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 860 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,537 given, 3,079 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

October results


Another boring low range day, so no trading for me until I've found a system to trade markets like this. So I might aswell post my month results.

Below are the monthly trading results since I've started trading this system.

On October 20th, I have changed my system to get better risk and reward stats.
The profit target of the 1st contract is increased to 2 pts, the second contract is trailed with a stop 1 tick below/above the previous bar and the stoploss is increased to 2.5 points max.
The goal of these changes rules was to get to better risk reward ratio´s, see the effects below:
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Allthough only 40 trades have been made with these new rules (statistically not significant), the RR has improved, it feels good and I will continue with these new rules

Out of the 40 trades, in 2 setups I failed to follow my rules, all other setups have been traded disciplined.

October was my first profitable month with this system. Two more consecutive months to go before trading live.

Keeping a journal on this forum takes time.
However, the effect is that I am evaluating and analysing my trades more than previously. Probably because I don't want to be associated with a rabbit sitting and staring in the headlights of a car coming in at high speed.
Also, I very much appreciate the feedback of other members om my trading (thanks @SadPraetor).

Happy trading!
GP

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