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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,713 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old June 1st, 2016, 11:56 PM   #381 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I only have a small timeframe of 2 hours to trade today.

Market overview
- Japan, down 1.6%
- China, down 0.2%
- Europe, down 0.7 – 1%
- Oil, down 1.8%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, up 8/32

Overall sentiment is negative.
Several news events at the beginning of the day.
Most important is Beige Book at 2 pm (/18.00 CET)

Important price levels
- 2094. Yesterday’s close + PP
- 2080. Weekly PP + SR level on the 30 min chart

Opening gap of 9 points.

Overnight made made lower highs and lower lows.
Upon the opening, price chops above the OR.

I don’t expect any significant moves in anticipation of Beige Book at 2pm.
Meanwhile, I’m expecting price to be ranging between 2094 (yesterday’s close + PP) and 2080 (weekly PP and SR level).

Given my small timeframe to trade today, I’ll be looking anticipating a gap fill trade.


Context log
- After the open, price made a new high around 2091 and then pulled back just above S1 / VWAP. Took a long, anticipating a gap fill which by the way also happened to be a measured move (trade #1)
- Price did indeed make a low around my entry level and than made a new high (1 tick below the HOD). Price pulled back to VWAP and makes a new low there. Looking forward to price filling the gap now
- Price makes a new high and is chopping around IB high, hopefully finding support there before closing the gap. Gap (almost) filled, I’m done for today.


Trade 1: +5 points
- Anticipating a gap fill, which happens to be a measured move also
- Not supporting this (yet)
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target just below the PP / 2SD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nicely planned and executed trade

Sofar, I’ve always started the month with a losing trade.
Looking forward to the result of this trend break

And yes, I know. Still have to do the May evaluation


Same analysis and darn near same execution other than runners. Well played!

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Old June 2nd, 2016, 10:48 AM   #382 (permalink)
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June 2nd prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 2.3%
- China, up 0.4%
- Europe, down 0-0.3%
- Oil, down 1.7%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, up 5/32

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
Several news events, no major news expected.

Important price levels
- 2097. Yesterday’s close + overnight high
- 2082-83. Yesterday’s low + SR level on the 30 min
- 2080. Weekly PP + SR level on the 30 min

Overnight traded within yesterday’s range, making a lower high and lower lows.
There is an opening gap of 4 points (currently).

I'm expecting a slightly negative day, where price will test the PP or yesterday’s close (/overnight high) on the upside and yesterday’s low or S2 on the downside.

I only have 2 hours to trade today.
I’ll be looking for shorts. Will give it a try from the opening range. I might get stopped out if the gap gets filled. If so, I’ll try another short (fade) from yesterday’s close.

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Old June 2nd, 2016, 11:51 AM   #383 (permalink)
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June 2nd


Context log
- Price made a lower high and lower lows overnight
- Upon the opening, price chopped sideways shorty. It seems to find resistance at PP, taking a short (trade #1).
- Price breaks down and finds resistance at S1. It’s chopping, then pulls back. I’m ignoring the TSI(VIX) divergence since it’s unreliable at the beginning of the trading session.
- Price pulls back +1SD and is chopping. It makes a new high, 1 tick below the HOD. I’m starting to think that price is looking to fill the gap. Closing the trade because I should go now

Trade 1: -1,75
- Short, in line with bias
- TICK and TSI(VIX) are both negative
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target just above yesterday’s low
- Closed with small loss
- Hindsight: Don’t know, will check it later today when I return

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Old June 3rd, 2016, 04:10 PM   #384 (permalink)
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May evaluation

My main goal for May was to:
(1) Trade my bias
(2) Improve on the low volume, low volatility range days

Regarding (1) Trading my bias:
At the end of April, I came to the insight that I was not trading my bias, so I made this my main goal for May. Since the 3rd trading day in May, I’m keeping stats if my trade planning (bias) was ok, my execution (entry) and management (exit/stop). Looking at these stats, I see that:
- My bias (/trade planning) was wrong on 2 days, resulting in all losing trades for a total of 16.50 points
- For only 6 trades, my trade execution or management was not right. This resulted in an additional loss of just 1.5 points. I excluded the 8.5 point loss of my emo-day of May 25th, since it’s included in 16.50 loss of the previous bullet already
It’s logical to loose money when my bias is not right. The stats clearly show this.
What surprises me is that the impact of improper execution and management is low. In other words, I should not focus on this too much and definitly not change anything here.
Conclusion: I’m satisfied with this change. Trading my bias gives a lot of direction, I cannot trade without it any more. If my bias is wrong, I feel like I’m swept from my feet and stop trading.

Regarding (2) Improving on low volume, low volatility range days:

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Compared to April, where I traded range days very poorly, I’ve improved on all aspects. The stats are very close to my best month March, which had a lot of trend days. The biggest difference is that March (and earlier months) had a lot more of 5 and 10 point movers. That makes sense because there were a lot more trend days.
Conclusion: I’m satisfied with me trading the range days now!

That’s it about my trading process.

Regarding my trading results, please see the table below.

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The expectancy is a calculation of the % profitable, %losing, average winning and averange losing trade. I color-marked the differences of these variables with my best month March. As you can see, I had less losing trades and similar average losing trades which is frankly good because I’m comparing a range month with a trend month. However, the average winning trade (colored red) is significant lower. The cause for getting the low expectancy is that I’m making only 3.25 points on an average trade compared to 5.50 points in March. Allthough a lower average on range days and lower daily ranges make sence, this is what needs to improve.

So…where does this bring me?
I had a PM discussion with another FIO member who was wondering why I did not have better results. My bias is right many times and the stats I showed above basically confirm that everything is ok and I should improve on the average winning trades only.
So how come I’m not getting bigger results?
The morning sessions and specifically the first 30-60 minutes after the open provide the best opportunities. Since I have a fulltime job (other than trading ), I can trade in this timeframe on exceptional occasions only. That might be an explanation.
Anyway, please provide me from feedback on this if you see what I don’t see. I might be over-analysing the stats and missing something if you look at it from a distance.

One might have noticed that I’ve made a couple of changes on my charts:
- Removed the gridlines
- Removed the volume profile (not missing it)
- Added weekly pivots
- Added opening gap

My goal for June is to increase my average winning trade.


Last edited by GruttePier; June 3rd, 2016 at 04:17 PM.
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Old June 3rd, 2016, 04:33 PM   #385 (permalink)
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Good job in analyzing, I wish I can do that soon but I am lazy or maybe busy with all other things. It's funny my worst month is your best month. You are doing an exceptional job of keeping track and analyzing. Thanks

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Old June 3rd, 2016, 04:51 PM   #386 (permalink)
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Good job in analyzing, I wish I can do that soon but I am lazy or maybe busy with all other things. It's funny my worst month is your best month. You are doing an exceptional job of keeping track and analyzing. Thanks

Thanks. I'm a numbers-guy, nature of the beast.
It helps me to objectively look at myself, then I'll find a subjective explanation for whatever I want to see in it

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Old June 4th, 2016, 09:15 PM   #387 (permalink)
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I really like the way you objectively analyze your trading. We're kind of similar in that way. Numbers don't lie. I am a struggling trader so I am not in the best position to give feedback, but since you asked, here goes...

If I am read your results correctly, you were successful 72% of the time getting to at least 3 points, correct? That means that of the 32 trades, 23 made a minimum of 3 points. That's 69 points in gross profit. 9 trades therefore did not make 3 points. If we assume a full stop out on each of these 9 trades, of let's say 4 points per stop out, that would be 36 points gross loss. 69 minus 36 gives you 33 points of net profit, or $1650 before commissions, triple what you actually made.

You seem to have gotten pretty good at holding trades through pull backs. Therefore, I am assuming you are not emotionally bailing very often before the trade has a chance to work. I guess the question I would be asking myself: is the idea of trying to catch out sized runners costing me profits? How many times in doing this am I letting winners turn into losers, or break even? Am I focusing too much on this notion of asymmetric returns (which I have no problem with if price is traveling good distances often enough to warrant the attempt), and not enough on ringing the cash register with more reasonable profits?

If I am misinterpreting your numbers, forgive me, but that is what I see. You're doing a great job. I can only hope to take as many successful trades as you do!

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Old June 5th, 2016, 05:40 PM   #388 (permalink)
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Tap In View Post
I really like the way you objectively analyze your trading. We're kind of similar in that way. Numbers don't lie. I am a struggling trader so I am not in the best position to give feedback, but since you asked, here goes...

If I am read your results correctly, you were successful 72% of the time getting to at least 3 points, correct? That means that of the 32 trades, 23 made a minimum of 3 points. That's 69 points in gross profit. 9 trades therefore did not make 3 points. If we assume a full stop out on each of these 9 trades, of let's say 4 points per stop out, that would be 36 points gross loss. 69 minus 36 gives you 33 points of net profit, or $1650 before commissions, triple what you actually made.

You seem to have gotten pretty good at holding trades through pull backs. Therefore, I am assuming you are not emotionally bailing very often before the trade has a chance to work. I guess the question I would be asking myself: is the idea of trying to catch out sized runners costing me profits? How many times in doing this am I letting winners turn into losers, or break even? Am I focusing too much on this notion of asymmetric returns (which I have no problem with if price is traveling good distances often enough to warrant the attempt), and not enough on ringing the cash register with more reasonable profits?

If I am misinterpreting your numbers, forgive me, but that is what I see. You're doing a great job. I can only hope to take as many successful trades as you do!

Yeah…I guess this is the 1-contract dilemma: “You have one shot, where do you enter and where do you exit?”. Taking an early profit and lose the potential for a bigger profit, or going for a bigger profit with the potential of a loss? Depending on the type of day, one is better than the other.

Your post kept me thinking all day. It triggers me into trading 2 contracts and taking best of both worlds: The first contract takes a profit at the nearest significant price level in the range of 3-5 points, and the second contract will be kept for a runner. I am now at a stage that I feel confident with my trading, the time feels right now. I’ve refrained from trading 2 contracts sofar because of my account size. I will just give it a go (experiment and learn) and fix the account size issue by that time.
So, I ran 2 backtests on my trades in May. It’s difficult to predict how I would have responded in the same situation but with 2 contracts. Therefore, I ran an conservative backtest (all-in, 3 point profit on contract #1 and the actual profit on contract #2) and a backtest where I for example would have let the 2nd contract run a little more. The results were not what I expected. Not double, but 3 and 4 times better! It's in line with comments I've read on FIO about tradings getting more consistency when they started trading more contracts instead of 1. Looking forward to how this is going to workout.

Thanks man! I appreciate your feedback.

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Last edited by GruttePier; June 5th, 2016 at 06:24 PM.
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Old June 5th, 2016, 06:11 PM   #389 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
So, I ran 2 backtests on my trades in May. It’s difficult to predict how I would have responded in the same situation but with 2 contracts. Therefore, I ran an conservative backtest (all-in, 3 point profit on contract #1 and the actual profit on contract #2) and a backtest where I for example would have let the 2nd contract run a little more. The results were not what I expected. Not double, but 3 and 4 times better! It's in line with comments I've read on FIO about tradings getting more consistency when they started trading more contracts instead of 1. Looking forward to how this is going to workout.

Thanks man! I appreciate your feedback.

Very cool. Not what I would have expected either. Thanks for the info.

By the way, your image is not showing up here. There is a well-known and old FIO bug, where sometimes an uploaded image is visible to the poster, but all that shows for anyone else is a placeholder. (We never could figure it out, but it tends to happen if there is a fairly long period of time between the upload and the post being submitted. The new version of FIO will use totally different bulletin board software, so this bug will go away.) If you just re-upload the image file to the same post, that should fix it.

Bob.

Update: image is back now! Results are quite amazing, too.


Last edited by bobwest; June 5th, 2016 at 06:27 PM.
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Old June 5th, 2016, 06:27 PM   #390 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Very cool. Not what I would have expected either. Thanks for the info.

By the way, your image is not showing up here. There is a well-known and old FIO bug, where sometimes an uploaded image is visible to the poster, but all that shows for anyone else is a placeholder. (We never could figure it out, but it tends to happen if there is a fairly long period of time between the upload and the post being submitted. The new version of FIO will use totally different bulletin board software, so this bug will go away.) If you just re-upload the image file to the same post, that should fix it.

Bob.

I did indeed take my time for submitting the post.
I uploaded the picture again and noticed that it has another id now. Maybe the id will be released after a specific timeperiod, resulting in the picture not being visible?

Whatever, can you see it now?

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