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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,232 / 726
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old May 25th, 2016, 01:04 PM   #371 (permalink)
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It's the second poem in my journal.
Looks like my journal is becoming a place for collecting trading poems

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Old May 25th, 2016, 01:09 PM   #372 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
It's the second poem in my journal.
Looks like my journal is becoming a place for collecting trading poems

That is the idea, the google translation is not too bad but as always with poem the translation is of capital importance in order to not lose all the meaning but it is close this time but we have lost all the beauty of the rhymes.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Old May 25th, 2016, 01:16 PM   #373 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
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It's the second poem in my journal.
Looks like my journal is becoming a place for collecting trading poems

“There is not a particle of life which does not bear poetry within it”
― Gustave Flaubert

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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Old May 25th, 2016, 04:58 PM   #374 (permalink)
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May 25th

Context log
- Overnight made 2 higher highs
- Upon the opening price started grinding up steadily, similar to yesterday. I missed the opportunity to enter a long on OR high because I started trading late
- Price is grinding up since with no pullbacks. Price goes through R2 and looks strong, taking a long (trade #1)
- Price pullsback to 1SD on the first significant down ticks today. I realize that I entered this trade just before the release of the oil report. I should not be in a trade on such events. Closed it
- Price seems to have found support at VWAP, taking a re-entry of my initital trade idea. I responded too late and could have got in at a better price (trade #2). Price tests R2, then pulls back strong and goes below the previous low. I’m starting to doubt my bias (looks like it’s gonna be a range day) and close the trade
- Price seems to stay below VWAP, the monkey in me goes short in anticipation of a move towards OR high or further (trade #3). Stopped out during dinner.
- Max daily loss has been reached and I stop trading for today

Trade 1: -3.25 points
- Pullback in an uptrend
- Remain strong
- Long, risk 3.5, profit target 2095 (weekly R2 / significant price level)
- Hindsight: Good decision to close, but I should not have taken this trade at all and waited for price be at a good price level instead

Trade 2: -2.25 points
- Pullback in an uptrend
- TSI(VIX) and TICK getting stronger
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target 2095 (weekly R2 / significant price level)
- Closed because I lost confidence in this trade idea
- Hindsight: Entered this trade to late, thereby increasing the risk level. If entered at VWAP, I’d probably stayed in the trade and closed it around HOD or R2 for a small profit

Trade 3: -3 points
- Pullback in small downtrend (range day)
- TICK and TSI(VIX) are both making lower highs
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target OR high / R1
- Stopped out (unattended, during dinner)
- Hindsight: Should not have taken this stupid monkey trade at all

Today was a bad day and makes me realize how “thin” my new trading behaviour is and how easy it is to fall back in wrong behaviour. I fell back in old behaviour of chasing price (trade #1, #2 and #3) instead of entering at the right price levels (like #2 should have been entered at VWAP).

Starting trading late and missing the long at the OR high somehow got me in the mode of not wanting to miss the trend up. Regarding trade #3, funny thing is that I knew I was letting my monkey hit the sell button instead of my rational me.

Not a good day, let's move on.

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Last edited by GruttePier; May 26th, 2016 at 10:58 AM.
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Old May 25th, 2016, 07:26 PM   #375 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Sometimes you just F up an easy day in hindsight for no good reason- shit happens, move on to tomorrow and keep today's knowledge in the bank for the next time the situation presents itself.

Truthfully- I'm happy to see you are taking more shots at the market and have loosened up a little- market just ran out of steam after a very strong trend

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Old May 26th, 2016, 10:58 AM   #376 (permalink)
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May 26th prep

Market overview
- Japan, slightly up
- China, slightly up
- Europe, neutral to 0.6%
- Oil, up 1%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, up 5/32

Overall sentiment is neutral.
Several news releases today.

Important price levels
- 2093. Weekly R2, daily R1 and yesterday’s high
- 2080.50. SR level on 30 min, S1 and yesterday’s low

Overnight was chopping within yesterday’s range.

I'm expecting a low volume, low volatile day.
The 2093 is a strong resistance level with weekly R2, R1 and yesterday’s high, I don’t expect price to break this level. Instead, I expect price to test the downside. The strongest support level is the 2080 (yesterday’s low, S1 and some swingpoints of past couple of days).

I’ll be looking for shorts on pullbacks to important price levels today and long when price is clearly finding support (for example at the 2080 level).

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Old May 26th, 2016, 03:24 PM   #377 (permalink)
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Context log
- Overnight was chopping within yesterday’s range
- Upon the opening, price tested the OR high and failed. Taking a short here in line with my bias (trade #1). I’m struggling with the profit target, setting it at the PP or overnight low. I decide the last. Price looks weak and falls through the PP, making a new low. Price pulls back towards VWAP / OR low and seems to find resistance, add another short
- Price makes a new high at OR mid, then moves down with force. Hopefully the PP level will break, but it doesn’t and price makes a higher low there. Important battle (for me) going on now. If price moves up, I get stopped out on the 2nd contract and stop on 1st contract comes in sight. If price moves down, my trade idea is going to work. My trade idea does work. Profit target hit, one more left.
- Price makes a small new LOD, then pulls back to VWAP. After chopping around for half an hour, divergence appears on the TSI(VIX). Price is very very slowly going down further towards IB low and misses my profit target by 2 ticks.
- Price moves up on high TICK (exhausted) and pullsback to VWAP again. There is a retail bus on the 5 min, just what I need for a further push down. Tick and TSI(VIX) divergence now, all set for the move down. Stopped out

I expected a low range day of 13 points, but not a range of 7.5 points

Trade 1: 4.5 + -1.75 = +2.75 points
- Pullback
- TICK looks weak, TSI(VIX) is not reliable yet
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target at overnight low
- Added, risk 3 points, profit target at -2SD
- Profit target of 1st contract hit, +4.5 points
- Stop hit on 2nd contract
- Hindsight: 1st contract was traded fine, the idea with the 2nd contract unfortunately did not work

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Old May 27th, 2016, 12:48 PM   #378 (permalink)
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May 27th

The current 6 point range is even worse than yesterday's 7 point range, so no trading for me today.

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Old May 27th, 2016, 12:49 PM   #379 (permalink)
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May

Since Monday is a public holiday and since I'm not able to trade Tuesday, this was my last trading day for May.

Below are the results.
Again a profitable month for which I'm happy, but the results can and should be much better.

I will post my analysis and evaluation somewhere over the next couple of days.

Enjoy the long weekend!

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Old June 1st, 2016, 12:03 PM   #380 (permalink)
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June 1st


I only have a small timeframe of 2 hours to trade today.

Market overview
- Japan, down 1.6%
- China, down 0.2%
- Europe, down 0.7 – 1%
- Oil, down 1.8%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, up 8/32

Overall sentiment is negative.
Several news events at the beginning of the day.
Most important is Beige Book at 2 pm (/18.00 CET)

Important price levels
- 2094. Yesterday’s close + PP
- 2080. Weekly PP + SR level on the 30 min chart

Opening gap of 9 points.

Overnight made made lower highs and lower lows.
Upon the opening, price chops above the OR.

I don’t expect any significant moves in anticipation of Beige Book at 2pm.
Meanwhile, I’m expecting price to be ranging between 2094 (yesterday’s close + PP) and 2080 (weekly PP and SR level).

Given my small timeframe to trade today, I’ll be looking anticipating a gap fill trade.


Context log
- After the open, price made a new high around 2091 and then pulled back just above S1 / VWAP. Took a long, anticipating a gap fill which by the way also happened to be a measured move (trade #1)
- Price did indeed make a low around my entry level and than made a new high (1 tick below the HOD). Price pulled back to VWAP and makes a new low there. Looking forward to price filling the gap now
- Price makes a new high and is chopping around IB high, hopefully finding support there before closing the gap. Gap (almost) filled, I’m done for today.


Trade 1: +5 points
- Anticipating a gap fill, which happens to be a measured move also
- Not supporting this (yet)
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target just below the PP / 2SD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nicely planned and executed trade

Sofar, I’ve always started the month with a losing trade.
Looking forward to the result of this trend break

And yes, I know. Still have to do the May evaluation

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