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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,183 / 726
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old May 10th, 2016, 05:05 PM   #351 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Market overview
- Japan, up 2.1%
- China, up 0.4%
- Europe, up 0.3-0.8%
- Oil, up 1.8%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, slightly down

Positive news released this morning on red book, job opens and wholesale trade.
Overall sentiment is slightly positive.

Important price levels
- 2076.00. Important SR level on the 30 min, just below the ADR high
- 2064.50. R2 / OR high
- 2060.00. Important SR level on the 30 min, confluence with R1

Overnight made 2 higher highs and fould support at yesterday's.
Volumes and volatility are still low.

Despite, I'm expecting a positive day with price slowly grinding up.
On the downside, I expect it to find support at the 2064.50 (R2/OR high) or even the 2060 level.
On the upside, I expect price to test the 2076 level.

I will be looking for longs on pullbacks to significant price levels (VWAP, R2, ..) and remain cautious because volatility/volume are still low.

Good call!
What made you think it was going to slow grind today despite the low vol?

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Old May 10th, 2016, 05:57 PM   #352 (permalink)
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nightshade View Post
Good call!
What made you think it was going to slow grind today despite the low vol?

Thanks!

The low volatility (low ATR reading / small bars) and low VIX.
Also, I haven't seen any high volatile breakouts in a looooooong time.

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Old May 11th, 2016, 11:24 AM   #353 (permalink)
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small bars

Great observation- A lot of traders get nervous that the market will suddenly reverse with one big bar and wipe out all they have held onto for so long- Took me forever to get comfortable with this scenario but I realized that over time the payoff far exceeds the every so often that you get wiped out

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Old May 17th, 2016, 11:49 AM   #354 (permalink)
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Prep May 17th

Market overview
- Japan, up 1.1%
- China, up 1.1%
- Europe, mixed down 0.7 - up 0.3%
- Oil, up 0.8%
- Gold, up 0.4%
- Bonds, up 4/32

Overall sentiment is slightly negative, following the trendup day yesterday.
Several news releases this morning which were slightly better or neutral.
No news expected today

Important price levels
- 2068-69. SR zone on the 30 min which got tested yesterday and overnight
- 2058-57. SR zone on the 30 min (tested intraday already) + PP
- 2048. SR zone on the 30 min + S1

Overnight tested the 68-69 zone and dropped since.

Following yesterday's trendday, I'm expecting a consolidation day trading within yesterday's range.
On the up-side, I expect price to be testing the 2068-69 zone (yesterday's high).
On the down-side, the 2048 level / S1 looks strong.

I'll be trading today as a range day and as such will (1) take trades of the range extremes, and (2) VWAP to xSD trades. My profit targets will be small.

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Old May 17th, 2016, 03:38 PM   #355 (permalink)
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May 17th

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Context log
- Price made a small high above yesterday's high, then dropped towards the 57-58 zone (important on 30 min chart). After the open, price made a lower high, followed by 2 lower lows and lower highs
- Price tests the 57-58 zone / PP and makes a small break through. Too late to enter, I'll wait for a pullback near the VWAP (trade #1)
- Price goes in my favor and makes a new high at OR mid. Price pulls back to VWAP and makes a slightly lower high. I decide to stay in the trade since price looks strong (high tick prints on the highs). Price pulls back below VWAP. I'm starting to doubt my trade idea now (lower high and lower low, PA does not look good), but decide to stay in to see if price what price will do around the 57-58 zone and if it stays above the VWAP
- Retail bus on the 5 min which is taken out and breakout seems to come soon. Really gotta hurry to get the kids from after-school daycare now :-( , stops are place.
- Price did indeed make a higher high at 2SD and is pulling back towards VWAP now. It breaks through VWAP strong on high tick. Price is making a lower low, closing the trade with a loss. My bias for a range day seems to be confirmed
- TICK divergence near LOD, taking a long with small risk and profit target (trade #2). Stopped out
- Price makes a new high, but a lower one. Market seems to be weak and does fall through LOD
- Price is reaching the 2048/47 zone + S1, taking a long here in line with bias (trade #3). Stopped out very quickly as this zone did not hold long

Trade 1: -3 points
- VWAP into exterme trade
- Neutral, not supporting the trade
- Long, risk 3.5 points, profit target OR high
- Closed when I lost confidence in the trade
- Hindsight: Setup unfortunatly didn't work, good decision to close

Trade 2: -2 points
- TICK divergence near LOD
- Long, risk 2 points, profit target VWAP (3 points)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Don't trade divergencies alone. Use it as a confirmation of a trade idea only

Trade 3: -3 points
- Fading important price level
- Internals are not supporting
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target VWAP
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Today turns out to be a trend day, my bias is not correct

Now that the day turned out differently than my bias, I have no idea what it will do. There are no significant price levels in close range, other than S2. Trading further would be chasing price / gambling. I decide to stop trading for today.

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Old May 17th, 2016, 04:28 PM   #356 (permalink)
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- Hindsight: Today turns out to be a trend day, my bias is not correct

Now that the day turned out differently than my bias, I have no idea what it will do.... I decide to stop trading for today.

I can tell you that you were not alone in this .

Bob.

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Old May 18th, 2016, 04:00 PM   #357 (permalink)
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May 18th (prep + exec)

Overall sentiment is neutral.
FOMC at 2 pm (20.00 CET).

Important price levels
- 2057/58. Important SR level on 30 min, just below R1
- 2047/48. Important SR level on 30 min, confluence with PP

Not much action overnight, it did make a small lower low.

In anticipation of FOMC, I'm expecting a range day.
I'll be trading it as such and take small profits.

I am limited in my trading today.

===========================

Context log
- Price is steadily going up towards the 2047/48 zone. Taking a short (trade #1)
- Stopped out, price looks strong. Taking a long immediatly (trade #2) with a stop. I have to go, leaving this trade unattended
- Profit target hit upon return at the ADR level. This is the first time I have a trade going towards the ADR level . I've been waiting a long time to say this myself this time: "ADR level hit, I'm done for today! "
- FOMC at 2 pm and market drops like a stone. I'm not trading around FOMC, but it's nice to fantasize about shorting it from the ADR level

Trade 1: -3 points
- Fade on important price level / PP
- No confirmations from the internals
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target yesterday's close
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Price looked very strong and was pulling back just a small tick. Should have closed it myself instead of waiting for the stop to be hit. Anyway, the setup just didn't work

Trade 2: +6 points
- Push through important price level
- TICK remaining strong (/positive)
- Long, risk 6 points, profit target ADR high
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Had a larger than usual stop, but placed at a logical instead of fixed level. First time that I have profit taking at ADR level

I'm able to trade tomorrow's afternoon session only.

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Old May 19th, 2016, 04:16 PM   #358 (permalink)
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May 19th prep + exec

Started trading around 1.30 pm (19.30 CET).

Overall sentiment is negative, price seems in a range.
No relevant news released or expected today

Important price levels
- 2031.50 - 2030.50. SR level on the 30 min chart, confluence with yesterday's low
- 2012. SR level on the daily

Overnight was chopping in yesterday's range.
Upon the opening, price dropped below yesterday's low and tested the 30/31 zone twice.
The most recent swings were 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows.

I'm expecting a range day with price trading in the 2031 - 2022 range, likely testing the overnight high.

=====================================

Context log (since 1.30 pm / 19.30 CET)
- Price broke through the 30/31 zone and tests the 1SD. Price looks strong, taking a long (trade #1)
- Price pulls back and finds support at yesterday's high, then indeed breaks out and finds resistance around OR mid. Price is chopping around this level, activity increases and high+low tick prints. Not sure to which side price will breakout. It breaks out to the downside. Closing my trade with small profit, I'll get back in later
- Price is at the 30/31 zone, getting back in (trade #2). The supportlevel does not hold, price pulls back further to VWAP/S1. Price goes up again. It's not moving further on high tick prints. Closing the trade because I lost my confidence. I also don't like trading after 21.00 CET (3 pm).

Trade 1: +1.25 points
- Range breakout
- High TICK
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target OR high / 2SD
- Closed with small profit

Trade 2: +2.25 points
- Pullback to important price level
- Internals are still negative
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target OR high / 2SD
- Closed it when price did not move on high tick
- Hindsight: Looks like a good decision for now

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Old May 20th, 2016, 10:41 AM   #359 (permalink)
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May 20th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.5%
- China, up 0.8%
- Europe, up 0.9 - 1.4%
- Oil, neutral
- Gold, slightly up
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is slightly positive.
No major news expected today

Important price levels
- 2057-2058. Important SR level (30 min chart), confluence with R3
- 2047-2048. Overnight high and important SR level (30 min chart)
- 2030-2031. Important SR level (30 min chart), confluence with yesterday's VWAP

Overnight made a new high since yesterday's close, then chopped sideways.

I'm expecting price to range between 2030-31 on the downside and 2047-48 on the upper side. Chances are that the 2047-48 level will break seems high, I'm guess it will try to test the 2057-58 level then.

Volatility is still low.
I'll be looking for longs initially and enter on pullbacks. My profit targets will be small.

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Old May 20th, 2016, 12:39 PM   #360 (permalink)
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May 20th


Context log
- Overnight made a new high since yesterday's close, then chopped sideways
- Upon the opening, price is making a new high immediatly and makes a large opening range of almost 5 points. Price is testing the 47-48 zone and makes a tiny pullback to OR high. Internals are looking strong, taking a long expecting a break of the 47-48 level (trade #1)
- Price does indeed break through on high volume. Given the strenght of the breakout, I decide to move the profit target from R2 to just below R3. Price is makes a pullback and sets a higher lower above the 47-48 zone. Price is finding resistance at R2 to move higher. Price does make a 1 tick higher high but not much more. I'm expecting a pullback, closing the trade with small profit
- Price (does) make a small higher high, then pulls back towards R2 / trendline. Price pulls back further to the VWAP. TICK is not printing -600 or more. I consider this as lack of sellers stepping in, taking a long (trade #2)
- Price goes up, making a new high. Pulls back to just above VWAP and then grinds up slowly. It's Friday and the market is slow. I'm not going for the run towards 2058 and take my profit at 2SD. I'm done for this week

Enjoy the weekend all, I will

Trade 1: +2.75 points
- Break of important SR level 2047-48
- TICK and TSI(VIX) are unreliable at this moment but look strong
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target R2
- Closed
- Hindsight: Good

Trade 2: +5.25 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Low confirmed by TICK
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target just below R3
- Closed at 2SD because market is slow
- Hindsight: I'll check it out on Monday

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