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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,676 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 29th, 2016, 02:07 PM   #341 (permalink)
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You were indeed making this call in the scalpers thread, well done!
I did think it would retrace after filling the gap, but did not even think of it taking out the bottom.
What made you believe this? The only signals that I know of were the weak internals on rising price and uncertaincy due to BOJ?

I'm focussing on executing my bias first and will then take my 20 points out of the market

All the best with trading today!
Cheers.

Got a hunch, bet a bunch!

In all seriousness, watching the higher timeframe it was a range bound week and buying was not being supported by strong buy programs. In other words, it was going up because it wasn't going down. Had the day before not ended when it did, the fall out would have occurred then IMO. Sometimes it's just a hunch though

I should add, and these are just my thoughts, that traders in my timeframe or above have had some pent up energy and have been waiting to through our weight around and get something going- times like these I believe we can get things set in motion.


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Old May 2nd, 2016, 10:52 AM   #342 (permalink)
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May 2nd prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 3.%
- China, closed
- Europe, up 0.5 -1.1% (UK closed)
- Oil, down 0.2%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, neutral

Overall sentiment is slightly down.
No major news expected today

Important price levels
- 2070.25 Naked VPOC
- 2045.75 Friday's low

Price was chopping in Friday's range overnight.
Made a higher high just below Friday's high.

Import price levels are Friday's and Friday's low. If we break Friday's high, I expect price to go towards 2070 (R1 / naked VPOC) and 2075 (last week VWAP). If we break Friday's low, I expect price to test the next HVN, which is around 2040.
I'm not sure if it's going to be a range to trend day, but I have a negative bias and will be looking for to fade the highs initially. Volumes seem to be low, which might favor for a range day.

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Old May 2nd, 2016, 04:05 PM   #343 (permalink)
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May 2nd


Context log
- Price was chopping in Friday's range this overnight. Just before the opening, it made a high just below Friday's high. Upon the opening, price made small a lower high and then a lower low
- Price pullsback to VWAP, in line with my slightly negative bias I'm taking a short (trade #1) with no information confirmation at all (look ma', no confirmation). Price seems to have a made a higher low. Activity in T&S increases, large sell orders in T&S, price remains below VWAP sofar. Expecting a powerful breakout soon. Price is going thru OR high, I close the trade
- First high tick prints of today. Price is making a new high 2068.75 and finding resistance there. It's just below the significant price level of 2070.25. The 30 min chart show support at around this level, taking a short here (trade #2)
- Price seems to have made a swingpoint at this level and is now retracing. TSI(VIX) and TICK seem to be confirming the move down, larger sell orders coming in. Price pulled back to VWAP (still making a higher low). Price made a lower high around, then a lower low. My trade idea seems to work, only doubt is the low at OR low finding support right at the lower trend line. Price breaking out to the upper side making a small new high with tick printing +1000's
- Everything is bullish at this moment: price (HH, HL), internals, P&F, 5 min and price is not moving much on large sell orders. Versus my bias of price going down... I decide to scratch and learn from who's right in hindsight. It wasn't me this time, good that I scratched
- Price touched VWAP, but I realized too late that I should have taken a long here. I decide to go long anyway, expecting a break of the 3rd test of the 2069 level (trade #3). Price is too weak to break through 2069 level on the 3rd attempt. This failed test go well be the start of my expected down move. I reverse to short (trade #4) when TICK is making high prints and H&S pattern is now complete
- TICK and TSI(VIX) are making lower lows. Price moves through VWAP and touches the upper trendline. From then on, it's grinding upwards. HOD gets broken with low volume, I get stopped out

Trade 1: -3 points
- VWAP trade
- Internals are too early to assess, risky trade since there is no confirmation at all
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target Friday's VWAP / overnight low
- Hindsight: Setup just didn't work, too bad. Good decision to close

Trade 2: 0 points
- Fading HOD, near identified significant price level (bias)
- 30 min chart is showing a SR level at this point, confirming my trade idea
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target between HOD and PP
- Closed at breakeven when everything looked bullish
- Hindsight: Trading my bias, but day turnout to be range instead of trend. Good to scratch it

Trade 3: -1.5 points
- Expecting HOD breakout
- Strong internals
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target at R1
- Closed when price failed to go through HOD
- Hindsight: Entry too late, should have entered at VWAP. Overtrading

Trade 4: -3 points
- H&S, expecting my short bias to play out this time
- TICK confirming the short
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target between LOD / PP
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Given my earlier attempts for short, I should not have taken this trade. On the other hand, this was a very nice setup with lower a lower high, H&S pattern an strong move down

I did trade my bias....but should have realized earlier that for the larger part this was just a 10 point range day. Trading it like that, would have made my money. I mentioned it might be a range day in my prep, but I somehow forgot.

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Old May 2nd, 2016, 04:30 PM   #344 (permalink)
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April results

My main goal for April was to learn to trade range days.
Allthough April was full of range days (with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions), it was at the end of the month that I realized what I was doing wrong: My bias was ok, but I was not trading it. For example: my bias said it would be a range day, but I would trade it for breakout's. Instead, I should fade the extremes and play VWAP trades. This late insight is reflected in the stats.
Despite, I made a small profit (excluding commissions) of which I'm not proud though.

You can see that the stats reflect my `learning´ and also the lower ranges.

My main goal for May is to improve on the low volume, low volatility range days and make a significant profit this time.

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Old May 3rd, 2016, 10:35 AM   #345 (permalink)
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May 3rd prep

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Market overview
- Japan, down 3.1%
- China, down 1.9%
- Europe, down 0.7 - 1.5%
- Oil, down 0.4%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, up

Overall sentiment is negative.
Economic Confidence, released this morning, is lower than previous month.
No other news expected today.

Important price levels
- 2063 - 2064. SR level on the 30 min
- 2056 - 2057. SR zone on the 30 min
- 2045.50 Last week low

Price dropped overnight with 18 points.

Overall sentiment is negative, confirmed by higher bonds.
I'm expecting price to test the 2056/2057 level. It's likely that it will not hold given the negative sentiment and price will drop further towards the 2045.50 level. Given the sentiment, I don't expect price will exceed much and might be testing yesterday's VWAP at most.
I will be looking for shorts, unless my bias is proven to be wrong, from important levels as the 2063/64 leveland yesterday's VWAP.

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Old May 3rd, 2016, 01:43 PM   #346 (permalink)
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May 3rd

Context log
- Price dropped overnight with 18 points, making a low below yesterday's LOD
- At the opening price went down, tested the 2057 level and moves back into the OR. Price seems unable to attract buyers, TICK is mostly down, I try a short at OR low (trade #1). Price does indeed break through the 2057/56 level. Profit target hit
- Price pulls back into the 2057/56 zone (which happens to be yesterday's ETH low), I'm taking another short (trade #2). Price is chopping around the 2056 level, then moves down towards the S2 level. I close the trade on a pullback
- Price pulls back to the 2057/56 zone and VWAP. Taking a short (trade #3)
- I close this trade on a pullback also with the intention to re-enter at VWAP. The TICK spike caught me by surprise, I take a short to continue trading my bias of pricer going towards 2045 level (trade #4)
- There are a couple of signs now indicating that the move down is exhausting: (1) Current range is only 12 points. (2) TSI(VIX) is making higher lows. (3) The new LOD was only made with 2 ticks. We'll see what happens... Activity in T&S is increasing and price pullsback to S2 / upper trend line. Tempting to scratch the trade, but I decide to remain in the trade since my trade idea is still valid.
- Got stopped out during dinner on trade #4.

I'm done for today, happy to make some profits again.
Good for the confidence level:-)

Trade 1: +4.75 points
- Expecting another test of the 2057/56 level
- Internals are supportive: TICK mostly down, TSI(VIX) negative
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target at 2056
- Given the momentum, I move the profit target slightly
- Hindishgt: Nice

Trade 2: +1.5 points
- Expecting a move towards 2045 level (ADR low, S3, last week low)
- Internals remain negative
- Short, risk 4 points, profit target 2047
- Closed on pullback
- Hindsight: Allthough taking a small profit and getting (trade #3) at a better price worked out well, this is not the behaviour that I must practice. See below

Trade 3: +2.25 points
- Expecting price to continue lower towards the 2045 level (ADR low, S3, last week low)
- Internals remain negative, allthough TICK printed almost +500 during the pullback
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target 2047
- Closed again on a pullback
- Hindsight: Same as previous trade. The higher low just above LOD freaked me out and made me close it. Instead, I should add on the pullback.

Trade #4: -2.5 points
- Expecting price to continue lower towards the 2045 level (ADR low, S3, last week low)
- TICK is choppy with +500 and -500 ticks right after each other. TSI(VIX) is supporting the short
- Short, risk 4 points, profit target 2047
- Stopped out during dinner
- Hindsight: Should have put the stop either at BE or way above VWAP. Unneccessary loss.

This is exactly why I believe trading multiple contracts increases consistency. What I did with trade #2 and #3 was closing the trade with a small profit (fear for losing profits) and re-enter at another level. Allthough this worked-out well this time and I actually got in at a better price with trade #2, it was an act of fear. When trading more contracts, I should have closed half instead and kept the other half open. Upon a pullback to VWAP, I should have then added.

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Old May 9th, 2016, 11:16 AM   #347 (permalink)
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May 9th prep

Back in the market after a small and great vacation!

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.7%
- China, up 0.2%
- Europe, up 0-1.5%
- Oil, down 1.2%
- Gold, down 2.1%
- Bonds, slightly up

Overall sentiment is mixed but seems slightly positive.
Unemployment rate at 10 am.

Important price levels
- 2060.50. Important SR on the 30 min, confluence with R1
- 2046.00. Important SR level on the 30 min, confluence with PP

Overnight made a higher high at the 2060 level.

Volumes and volatility are low (10 am).
I'm expecting a range day and as such will:
- trade of the extremes (2060 and 2046 level) with small profit targets
- take VWAP trades

My goal is to play my bias until it's proven false.

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Old May 9th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #348 (permalink)
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May 9th

Context log
- Price made higher high's overnight, with the last high right at the 2060 / R1 level
- Upon the opening, price made a higher high, found support at IB high and then made a new RTH high. My bias is that price is around the intraday high, I'm going short here (trade #1). Price pullsback to VWAP just above my profit target and seems to find support there. Profit target hit though
- Price breaks down more towards OR mid / -2SD making a lower low. Looking for a short when price pulls back to VWAP. Price is finding resistance just below yesterday's high and chopping around. It does move a couple of ticks higher and does not explode higher (buyers are not stepping in / enough sellers in the market). Taking a short (trade #2). Price does explode on highest tick today, closing the trade with a loss. Nothing happens though, I'm in doubt: re-entry on the initial trade idea or not? Since I don't know, I decide to do nothing. Then my initial trade idea works out (fuck).
- Looking for price to hit the 2046 / PP level for a fade. Price did not reach it (yet) and pulls back. Looking for a short from VWAP / trendline. Retail bus is mentioned in the spoos, I'm not taking it until it retraces to VWAP / trendline. Price is at VWAP level, taking the short (trade #3)
- Price makes a lower low just above IB low, then pulls back. If price breaks above VWAP a couple of points, my trade idea (price bouncing of the 2046 zone) is invalid and I'll close the trade
- Price has made a higher high at 1SD. It retraced back to just above OR high / VWAP. Taking a long, anticipating a move to the exterme (trade #4). Profit target hit, making my day

Trade 1: +3.25 points
- Range play, trade of important price level
- Small divergence between TSI(VIX) and price
- Short, risk 3 points (just above the 2060 zone), profit target between VWAP and OR high
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Nice small profit, but price pulled back way more
- Planning was ok, exectution was ok, managing was ok

Trade 2: -2 points
- VWAP trade
- Divergence of tick highs. TSI(VIX) is not confirming the trade (yet)
- Short, risk 2.5 points, profit target at LOD / -2SD
- Closed it when momentum went the wrong way
- Hindsight: Stupid action to close this trade on a high tick. Playing my emotions instead of my bias. The initial trade idea worked out and profit target got hit
- Planning was ok, execution was ok, managing the trade was not yet ok.

Trade 3: -2.75 points
- VWAP trade
- Internals are neutral
- Short, risk 2.5 points, profit target between LOD and PP
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Price did reach my anticipated level
- Bias was not ok, execution was ok, managing was ok

Trade 4: +4.75 points
- VWAP to extreme
- Internals are not confirming the trade (TSI VIX and TICK are diverging shortly after)
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target HOD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: nice
- Planning, execution and management were ok

Other than the emotion/fear based exit on trade 2, I'm happy with today.
The profit on trade #1 could have been higher. If trading multiple contracts, that would have been the case by leaving 1 contract open.
No need to discuss the stupid exit of trade #2 again.
Trade #3 just didn't work.
Trade #4 was a perfect VWAP to range extreme trade.

I'll be able to trade 1-2 hours after the open tomorrow, and I'm not able to trade Wed, Thu and Fri (job obligations).

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Old May 10th, 2016, 11:19 AM   #349 (permalink)
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May 10th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 2.1%
- China, up 0.4%
- Europe, up 0.3-0.8%
- Oil, up 1.8%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, slightly down

Positive news released this morning on red book, job opens and wholesale trade.
Overall sentiment is slightly positive.

Important price levels
- 2076.00. Important SR level on the 30 min, just below the ADR high
- 2064.50. R2 / OR high
- 2060.00. Important SR level on the 30 min, confluence with R1

Overnight made 2 higher highs and fould support at yesterday's.
Volumes and volatility are still low.

Despite, I'm expecting a positive day with price slowly grinding up.
On the downside, I expect it to find support at the 2064.50 (R2/OR high) or even the 2060 level.
On the upside, I expect price to test the 2076 level.

I will be looking for longs on pullbacks to significant price levels (VWAP, R2, ..) and remain cautious because volatility/volume are still low.

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Old May 10th, 2016, 03:01 PM   #350 (permalink)
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May 10th


Context log
- Overnight made 2 higher highs and fould support at yesterday's high. Volumes and volatility are still low
- Upon the opening, price grinded upwards making higher highs and higher lows and eventually a double top at overnight high. Price then pulled back to VWAP. I just started trading and jumped on a long. Slightly late, but considering my positive bias these couple of ticks don't matter (trade #1).
- Price makes a failed breakout (with 1 tick) and retraces to VWAP. Price is then facing a lot of effort breaking through the HOD / R3 level but succeeds. An indication that despite the low volume&volatility the market is strong
- Price makes a new high at 2072.75, then retraces to R3 / IB high. I decided to add because I'm still confident about my bias. Price did indeed make a (higher) low at this level. It's grinding up and finding restistance at HOD. Activity around HOD is very low, price slowly makes a 3 tick higher high. I decide to take my profit on the 1st contract and leave 1 open.
- Activity is increasing, price moves up in agony then pulling back. I'm loosing my faith on price grinding higher and close the trade just below the 1SD band with a small profit....at exactly the lowest point

Trade 1: 5.75 + 2 = 7.75 points
- VWAP trade
- Too early to assess
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target just below 2076 zone
- Add (risk 3 points) on a pullback to R3 / IB high, profit target just below 2076 zone
- Profit target on 1st contract hit, +5.75 points profit
- Closed 2nd contract hit, +2 points profit
- Hindsight:

I ditched the gridlines (much better!) and volume profile on my charts to elliminate all unneccessary information. It's nice and clean now.

Not able to trade for the rest of this week due to job training.
Monday is a national holiday (2nd day pentacost) so we're on the boat without wifi, see you on Tuesday (pfffff, almost a week)

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