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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,949 / 747
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 27th, 2016, 01:52 PM   #331 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
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GruttePier View Post
Context log
- Overnight was chopping withing yesterday's range without direction
- The first trading hour, price is within a relatively wide opening range of 5 points
- Price makes a new low upon the release of the oil report. I expect the low of today to be the S2 level and take a short (trade #1). Price seems exhausted and I'm sure if it will hit the S2 level. I close it with a small profit of 1.75 points
- I have my doubt about going long here. I know this is in contradiction with closing first trade. Anyway, I'm not going to force any trades and wait to see what price is going to do
- Price is chopping in a thight rage (flag) and meanwhile both TICK and TSI(VIX) are diverging. Cannot ignore this and go long (trade #2). Price goes indeed higher. Profit target hit.
- It's tempting to move the profit target to OR high, but family is calling for dinner
- I'm done for today

Trade 1: +1.75
- Move towards lower range
- Internals are slightly confirming a short: TSI( VIX ) making small lower lows, TICK making lower lows
- Short, risk 2 points, profit target 2075.50 (just above S2)
- Move seems exhausted and I loose my confidence of price reaching S2. Closed with small profit
- Hindsight: Traded my bias

Trade 2: +2.75
- Bounce of LOD
- TICK and TSI(VIX) divergence are supporting a move up
- Long, risk 2.5 points, profit target just below S1 / VWAP
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Traded my bias, turned out ok

I am happy to see that you have not missed your entry this time and have made good trades.

Have you used market orders ?

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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Old April 27th, 2016, 02:20 PM   #332 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
I am happy to see that you have not missed your entry this time and have made good trades.

Have you used market orders ?

Thanks!

Yes, all market order. I notice that these orders take the anxiety out of the entry.
Once I decide to enter, I'm already in. Versus putting a limit order a couple of ticks below the current price and hoping for minutes that the order gets filled.

Edit: with limit orders I would have missed the second trade because I would have placed the limit on the lowersude of the flag. Price did not reach level and "broke" out putting me in a position to decide wether to chase it or not. Sofar, I like market orders. And specifically executing on my bias

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Old April 27th, 2016, 02:44 PM   #333 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
I am happy to see that you have not missed your entry this time and have made good trades.

Have you used market orders ?


GruttePier View Post
Thanks!

Yes, all market order. I notice that these orders take the anxiety out of the entry.
Once I decide to enter, I'm already in. Versus putting a limit order a couple of ticks below the current price and hoping for minutes that the order gets filled.

Edit: with limit orders I would have missed the second trade because I would have placed the limit on the lowersude of the flag. Price did not reach level and "broke" out putting me in a position to decide wether to chase it or not. Sofar, I like market orders. And specifically executing on my bias

I had meant to mention this the other day, when @Okina first brought it up.

In another universe, where I didn't even know what a futures contract was, I learned that I always wanted to get in with a market order. I do understand that many people will say "No, that's crazy," but I think it's crazy to miss a chance to get in when I want to just to maybe save a tick or two. Granted, a hyper-scalper might need that tick, but I never do. I need to get in the multi-point trend I am trying for, and not see it go on without me.

This was when I was buying equities or options on them, and I expected to hold for a few months. Why quibble for a quarter or a half then? But the same thinking works well now, I believe.

I often get out with a market order too. Why? When I want out, I want out... (That does not apply to pre-set targets, of course, just times when I've got to get out now.)

I'm fairly sure someone will come in and patiently explain how this is all wrong.... Well, differences are what make the world go 'round. Or something like that.

Bob.

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Old April 27th, 2016, 03:47 PM   #334 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
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bobwest View Post
I had meant to mention this the other day, when @Okina first brought it up.

In another universe, where I didn't even know what a futures contract was, I learned that I always wanted to get in with a market order. I do understand that many people will say "No, that's crazy," but I think it's crazy to miss a chance to get in when I want to just to maybe save a tick or two. Granted, a hyper-scalper might need that tick, but I never do. I need to get in the multi-point trend I am trying for, and not see it go on without me.

This was when I was buying equities or options on them, and I expected to hold for a few months. Why quibble for a quarter or a half then? But the same thinking works well now, I believe.

I often get out with a market order too. Why? When I want out, I want out... (That does not apply to pre-set targets, of course, just times when I've got to get out now.)

I'm fairly sure someone will come in and patiently explain how this is all wrong.... Well, differences are what make the world go 'round. Or something like that.

Bob.

My stop are also market when touched. If i am wrong I don't want to be stick with a trade that cost me a lot.
My target are limit but it is only due to the way my platform works but I often cancel them and do at market when I see I do not have a fill.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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Old April 27th, 2016, 04:07 PM   #335 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
My stop are also market when touched. If i am wrong I don't want to be stick with a trade that cost me a lot.
My target are limit but it is only due to the way my platform works but I often cancel them and do at market when I see I do not have a fill.

Exactly how I think of it. You've got to act when it's time, not worry about the quality of your fill.

There may be markets where that is not true, but if they have that big a spread then I probably don't want to be in them anyway.

Bob.

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Old April 27th, 2016, 04:33 PM   #336 (permalink)
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Can we see some more of these pics:

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Damn I'm getting old- they look like babies! Cute little babies, but babies nonetheless... And for the record- yes, take your pick!

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Old April 28th, 2016, 10:52 AM   #337 (permalink)
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April 28th prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 3.6%
- China, neutral
- Europe, down 0.7-1%
- Oil, neutral
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, slightly down

Overall sentiment is negative.
The QE update by the Bank of Japan made the ES drop 20 points pre-market (!). Anybode short overnight?

No significant news expected today

Important price levels
- 2094.00 Yesterday's high, ADR high, HVN on monthly
- 2087.00 PP, yesterday's IB high and near yesterday's close
- 2070.25 Overnight low

I'm expecting price to find support above overnight low and testing yesterday's high (gap fill).
So I'll be looking for longs. If price does break below yesterday's low, my bias will be negative immediatly and be looking for shorts.

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Old April 28th, 2016, 01:56 PM   #338 (permalink)
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April 28th

Context log
- Price dropped 20 points in 2 mins since BOJ released its update on the QE program. Then it chopped and made a lower low above S2.
- Upon the opening price moved up towards the PP. I'm taking a long on exhaustion that seems to be a higer low (trade #1). Setup looks nice, but what's concerning me is that TICK is printing below 500.
- Price is making a now low above the PP. Let's see if the PP / 1SD will hold... Executing on my bias, I add when price seems to make a higher low. Price and internals look weak, I close my add with a small loss and put the stop of the 1st contract 2 points below the VWAP. PP is turning from support into resistance now. Price makes a lower higher near previous high. Let's see if the PP will hold. TSI(VIX) divergence makes me doubt my position. If the PP does not hold, I'm out and will reverse position. Price break through and seems to exhaust 2 ticks below my profit target. I close the position (right on time)
- Price is grinding up to yesterday's close, TICK is improving slightly in strength
- Price is just below yesterday's high and at ADR. Internals are getting weaker again. Took a short (trade #2). Very risky but I need to learn to trust my bias. Price pulls back to IB high, then tests yesterday's close. I scratch the trade because dinner is ready, internals are getting stronger and P&F does not look like price will pullback further

Trade 1: -2 + 5 = +3 points
- Pullback in uptrend
- TSI(VIX) is confirming the move, TICK is not supportig it by print above 600
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target yesterday close
- Add, risk 2 points, profit target ADR high. Closed with 2 point loss
- Closed 1st contract with 5 point profit
- Hindsight: The internals were very weak. As a consequence, I closed the added contract near its lowest point (fear of loosing) and took profit on the initial contract early

Trade 2: 0 points
- Counter trend, fade of HOD / ADR high / yesterday high
- TSI(VIX) and TICK are getting weaker
- Short, risk 2.5 points, profit target at VWAP / PP
- Scratched because of dinner
- Hindsight: I should have taken this trade on the sim instead of the live account because I had low confidence of this working out (learning to trade my bias)
edit: During dinner the profit target of VWAP/PP is hit

This was my last trading day for April. Total profit this month is: 0.5 points, ha ha

We have a long weekend on the boat ahead, I will update the journal with the evaluation and stats by Sunday or Monday.

Ahead of the month evaluation, I have a very good feeling about April:
(1) It made me experience that markets are dynamic and that range days should be traded very differently than trend days
(2) I felt for a couple of weeks already that something was blocking me to make more progress in my learning but I did not know what. @Inletcap and @Okina made me realize with their feedback that I did not trade my bias. Trading my bias instead of getting confused by the daily noise, immediatly changed my results. Allthough I hope that volatility will return soon, I hope for a couple of more range weeks to get better on low volatility
(3) Ofcourse my 0.5 point profit . On a serious note, I was feeling bad a week ago about the disappointing results. However, ending with a micro-profit now makes me realize that losses can be turned into profits very quickly

All-in-all, my most valuable month ever since I turned the leaf!


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As for the April contest, I joined the contest to get more publicity for my journal and receive feedback on what others think of it. I'm not out to win a TST combine. No offense to TopStep in any way, but at this stage I'm not looking for rules to reduce my risk of ruin. Instead, I want to have as less rules as possible and learn based on principles.
In case I happen to win a combine, I will ask @BigMike if it's possible to exchange the combine for a donation to help the Equadorians.

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Last edited by GruttePier; April 28th, 2016 at 03:28 PM. Reason: typos
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Old April 28th, 2016, 09:42 PM   #339 (permalink)
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lol

" Nah- Today it's going out the bottom "

I wish you were there for it this afternoon- your month would have looked significantly different!

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Old April 29th, 2016, 04:54 AM   #340 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Inletcap View Post
lol

" Nah- Today it's going out the bottom "

I wish you were there for it this afternoon- your month would have looked significantly different!

You were indeed making this call in the scalpers thread, well done!
I did think it would retrace after filling the gap, but did not even think of it taking out the bottom.
What made you believe this? The only signals that I know of were the weak internals on rising price and uncertaincy due to BOJ?

I'm focussing on executing my bias first and will then take my 20 points out of the market

All the best with trading today!
Cheers.

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