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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

  #321 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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April 26th

Context log
- Overnight, price made an higher high at R2 and a lower high at arond the IB high
- After the open, it made a double top at the overnight high. An indication that market is weak at this moment
- Price pulls back to OR high / VWAP. In line with bias, I'm taking a long (trade #1). Stopped out when price pulls back more.
- TICK is down on high ticks, I'm expecting price to test the lower range (trade #2). Profit target hit
- Price is at the price level at which I'm expecting the lower range level and showing signs of exhaustion. Executing on my bias, I'm taking a long with a small stop (trade #3). Closed it when I lost confidence
- Price is chopping and broke through my expected lower range level by 2 points. I think price will make the lower range level arond 2079 instead, taking a short (trade #4).
- It feels like overtrading but I don't care because I must learn to execute my bias. I see opportunities that are in line with the bias and must learn to followup on this unconsiously
- Price makes a lower low and is choppy. VIX TSI is showing divergence. Profit target hit
- Damn, missed the long entry at the PP. Price pulled back very quickly. Sofar, my bias is playing out. There is no excuse for missing a trade in line with bias, so I go long and don't wait for price to test PP again (trade #5). Thanks for your feedback @Okina! TICK makes a new high print, a take this as a confirmation of my bias. Another high print of the TICK. Profit target hit
- Price does not seem to pullback and looks strong. I take another long (trade #6), no excuse for missing an opportunity in line with bias
- Just when I'm loosing confidence in this trade price breaks through the trendline. Stopped out.

Trade 1: -2 points
- VWAP trade
- Long, risk 2 points, profit target 2091.50 (just below R2 / overnight high)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Nice trade, no issues. Hypo just didn't work this time

Trade 2: +2 points
- Test of lower range
- TICK is confirming the short by printing -600's and making lower low
- Short, risk 2 points, profit target 2083.75 (just above expected lower range level)
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Inline with bias

Trade 3: -1.5 points
- Bounce of expected lower range level (yesterday high, yesterday close)
- Counter trend, no confirmations anywhere other than small exhaustion
- Long, risk 2 points, profit target VWAP
- Closed when lost confidence
- Hindsight: In line with bias, good decision to close

Trade 4: +3.75 points
- Expected test of pivot point @ 207925
- Internals showing weakness, price does not move much on up ticks
- Short, risk 3 points (OR mid), profit target at pivot point (2079.50)
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: In line with bias, nice one

Trade 5: +4 points
- Bounce of the lower range
- VIX TSI is in divergence with price, confirming a long
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target at VWAP
- Moved the profit target with a couple of ticks because TICK was above +600.
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: In line with bias. Should have entered at PP already but I was too slow. Anyway, glad I took it. All credits to @Okina

Trade 6: -2 points
- Expected test of upper range level
- TICK is making high prints and VIX TSI is strong. Both are confirming the long
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target at 2SD
- Stopped out, just below trendline
- Hindsight: Not satisfied with this entry, should have entered long on a pullback (that didn't come) to VWAP. Good decision to close

It's good to have some winning trades again

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This is a chart showing the TSI(VIX) divergence which was the entry for trade #5:
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  #322 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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GruttePier View Post
Sometimes you need a little feedback of others to get you in the right direction again or make the next step in your development.

@Okina reminded me of not executing on my bias and made me think about why I was not following up on opportunities. I then remembered @Inletcap talking about planning-executing-managing in another thread when I realized that my problem is the execution of my bias.
I have the feeling for a couple of weeks already that something is blocking me and preventing me to do good on range days. I now feel that I have found it. Time will tell and ofcourse it will all be documented in this journal.

I'm back on sim (at least for range days) to learn myself this new behaviour of following-up on my bias.

Same issue for me, I am getting better in identifying levels but execution is my BIG problem due time constraints or fear etc etc. How to get over that don't know yet, one thing I realized is I can't sit in front of screen but not able to put limit orders at my levels because I want CONFIRMATION first, once I get confirmation some work comes up and misses again, this cycle is going on and on.

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  #323 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
Same issue for me, I am getting better in identifying levels but execution is my BIG problem due time constraints or fear etc etc. How to get over that don't know yet, one thing I realized is I can't sit in front of screen but not able to put limit orders at my levels because I want CONFIRMATION first, once I get confirmation some work comes up and misses again, this cycle is going on and on.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Go on sim for a couple weeks and try trading where you want to trade without confirmation. Take it seriously so you can gauge results. There is nothing like the rush you get when you beat the market and watch it turn in your favor. Fyi- don't jump ship when it goes against you for a bit- just observe or even better, add!

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  #324 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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Inletcap View Post
Go on sim for a couple weeks and try trading where you want to trade without confirmation. Take it seriously so you can gauge results. There is nothing like the rush you get when you beat the market and watch it turn in your favor. Fyi- don't jump ship when it goes against you for a bit- just observe or even better, add!

Thanks I did that two days back for NQ and YM of course with 25 point and 100 point win, but sim is sim anyway that a good way to approach.

EDIT: Actually planning to do etf's.

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  #325 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
Thanks I did that two days back for NQ and YM of course with 25 point and 100 point win, but sim is sim anyway that a good way to approach.

EDIT: Actually planning to do etf's.

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If you are consistently profitable on sim but get wrecked live, you are undercapitalized or not truly accepting the risk you are taking. Try it for a few weeks to make it a behavior vs a test, then try live.

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  #326 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Same issue for me, I am getting better in identifying levels but execution is my BIG problem due time constraints or fear etc etc. How to get over that don't know yet, one thing I realized is I can't sit in front of screen but not able to put limit orders at my levels because I want CONFIRMATION first, once I get confirmation some work comes up and misses again, this cycle is going on and on.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

If you want to trade without confirmation, then you have to trade without confirmation.

Easier said than done, but in the end that is what you will have to do.
It takes like 20 days to make new behaviour your own.
As said by Inletcap, try it out on sim for a couple of weeks.

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  #327 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
If you are consistently profitable on sim but get wrecked live, you are undercapitalized or not truly accepting the risk you are taking. Try it for a few weeks to make it a behavior vs a test, then try live.

First not find time to watch then not accepting the risk because I am not putting limit orders at my levels.

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  #328 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Kingsday prep

Market overview
- Japan, slightly down
- China, slightly down
- Europe, slightly up
- Oil, up 2.2%
- Gold, slightly up
- Bonds, slightly up

Overall sentiment is neutral.
Oil report at 16.30 CET and FOMC at 20.00 CET.

Important price levels
- 2086.50. HVN on monthly
- 2078.50. Naked VPOC
- 2071.00. Week low

Overnight was chopping within yesterday's range with no direction at all.
Upon the opening, price mad a high at the PP.

Volumes and volatility are low. I don't expect much in anticipation of FOMC this afternoon.
This is going to be another boring tight range day. In other words, good training ground for me.

I expect price to be ranging within yesterday's range.

Meanwhile...in an country far far away...people are celebrating Kingsday!

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  #329 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Kingsday

Context log
- Overnight was chopping withing yesterday's range without direction
- The first trading hour, price is within a relatively wide opening range of 5 points
- Price makes a new low upon the release of the oil report. I expect the low of today to be the S2 level and take a short (trade #1). Price seems exhausted and I'm sure if it will hit the S2 level. I close it with a small profit of 1.75 points
- I have my doubt about going long here. I know this is in contradiction with closing first trade. Anyway, I'm not going to force any trades and wait to see what price is going to do
- Price is chopping in a thight rage (flag) and meanwhile both TICK and TSI(VIX) are diverging. Cannot ignore this and go long (trade #2). Price goes indeed higher. Profit target hit.
- It's tempting to move the profit target to OR high, but family is calling for dinner
- I'm done for today

Trade 1: +1.75
- Move towards lower range
- Internals are slightly confirming a short: TSI( VIX ) making small lower lows, TICK making lower lows
- Short, risk 2 points, profit target 2075.50 (just above S2)
- Move seems exhausted and I loose my confidence of price reaching S2. Closed with small profit
- Hindsight: Traded my bias

Trade 2: +2.75
- Bounce of LOD
- TICK and TSI(VIX) divergence are supporting a move up
- Long, risk 2.5 points, profit target just below S1 / VWAP
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Traded my bias, turned out ok

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  #330 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
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For those who are interested: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koningsdag

Our King and Queen
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Children selling stuff at the Kingsmarket
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Some random people partying
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