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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,183 / 726
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 15th, 2016, 10:53 AM   #301 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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April 15th prep

Market overview
- Japan, -0.4%
- China, neutral
- Europe, -3-4%
- Oil, -2.3%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, slightly positive

Overall sentiment is neutral.

Important price levels
- 2082.00 R1 + yesterday high
- 2072.00 S1 + yesterday low
- 2068.25 HVN on weekly and monthly

Overnight made a lower low just beneath yesterday's low, then pullback to VWAP.
Volumes are low.

I'm expecting a range day with little volatiliy and trading within yesterday's range.
Will keep an eye on the levels mentioned above, but I don't expect much today.

If there are no serious opportunities, I will not take any trades (lesson learned earlier this week).

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Old April 15th, 2016, 01:05 PM   #302 (permalink)
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April 15th

No trades for me.
Very low volume and price oscilllating around the VPOC

Starting the weekend!

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Old April 18th, 2016, 11:06 AM   #303 (permalink)
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Prep April 18th


Market overview
- Japan, down 3.4%
- China, down 0.7%
- Europe, down 0.2 - 0.4%
- Oil, down 3.6%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, down 6/32

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
Housing market index released today, no other news.
No agreement on the oil freeze at the Doha summit.

Important price levels
- 2081.75 Year high, important SR level
- 2074.50 Naked VPOC, Friday's close
- 2064.00 - 2058.50 Gap to be filled

Overnight dropped to Friday's ADR low, then making higher highs and higher lows.
Volumes are low.

Other than housing market, no news releases today.
It seems like it's going to be another boring day.
I'm expecting either:
- A range day, with price ranging between 2068 (HVN / OR high) and 2081.75 (year high)
- A trending day with prices slowly grinding up and making new highs for the year. Hopefully OTF are stepping in then

I'll be cautious today and watching the 2081.75 level closely.
Price movement at this level will tell if it's going to be a range day or slow grinding up day.

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Old April 18th, 2016, 03:57 PM   #304 (permalink)
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April 18th

Context log
- Overnight dropped to Friday's ADR low, then making higher highs and higher lows
- Price is slowly trending up upon the opening
- Market breadth is at 1.15, indicating slightly more buying volume than selling volume. iTRIN is at 1.14, indicating range. TICK is mostly above 0 sofar. The indicators are setup for a range day
- Looking for a long around yesterday's close. Price made a higher low at 1SD and is making a new high. A couple of 1000+ buy orders are executed, indicating big buyers. Have a long limit order at R1, anticipating price breaking through 2081.75 (year high). Activity is increasing, seems like my limit order is not going to be triggered, moved it a couple of ticks. Indeed, missed the entry. Price is making new highs and broke through with not much volume.
- Price made a new high, just below ADR high and R3. It's tempting to go long at the trendline but since it's at ADR high already not worth the risk.
- The breakout at the high-of-year occured with low volume and OTF does not seem to step in. In line with my bias, I'm taking a short anticipating price to go pullback. It feels very risky because it's a counter-trend trade and there are no signs (aka information) of price indeed pulling back. Stopped out, bigger guys do seem to step in now and activity is increasing
- Took a long on the pullback to R2 / IB high (trade #2), scratched it
- I'm confused on what to do now. I read my bias again which says to go short around this level. I realize this opportunity and that I will miss it if I wait for market information to confirm going short here (trade #3)
- Price fails to make a new high (1 tick below HOD). TICK divergence. Price makes a double top just below HOD. Feeling confident on the trade
- Almost 1 hour later. Breadth is creeping up and is above 2 now. iTRIN is creeping up aswell and indicating strenght. Except for NQ, most markets are at highs and breadth is grinding up for a while now. @choke35 scratches here, which is going through my mind aswell. Tempting to close the trade but I decide to stay in. Stopped out. I guess this is where experience comes in
- Price makes a new HOD at the high of Nov '15. Market looks weak, take a short here (trade #4). Price goes my way, finds support at POC and pulls back. Stopped out at breakeven
- Price tests the HOD but is unable to touch it. Breadth and iTRIN are weak(er). I take a short here (trade #5) and close it when I realize my trade hypo does not work

Trade 1: -3 points
- Short from HOD on signs of weakness
- iTRIN is chopping around 1.2 level, breadth is declining. Internals are neutral
- Short, risk 3 points profit target at R1 (2078)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Trade idea was good, but just didn't work out

Trade 2: 0 points
- Long on pullback to R2 / prev year high / IB high
- Internals are neutral
- Long, risk 2 points, profit target 2086 (2 SD / high on Nov 3rd '15)
- Closed at breakeven. Bulls are loosing it
- Hindsight: Closed to early, profit target would have been hit

Trade 3: -4 points
- Short near HOD around ADR high
- Internals are neutral
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target R1
- Stopped out

Trade 4: 0 points
- Short near HOD and significant price level
- Breadth decreasing
- Short, risk 2 points, profit target VWAP
- Closed at breakeven
- Hindsight: Should have taken a small profit at VPOC instead of anticipating a big drop

Trade 5: -2 points
- Short near HOD and significant price level
- Breadth and iTRIN are getting weaker (/less strong)
- Short, risk 2.5 points, profit target VPOC
- Closed it when I realized breadth is getting stronger an price was not going to pullback

My hypo of a slow grinding day up became reality today, while I was trading the my other hypo of a range day. I find ES difficult to trade past 4 weeks. The volumes are low and daily ranges are small.
I find myself overtrading and taking trades from less significant levels. I definitly need to work on this.

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Old April 18th, 2016, 05:09 PM   #305 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Edge on FIO
Jan, Feb and March have been good months for me.
These months had high volatility and large daily ranges.

Past couple of weeks were mostly range days with low volumes and small daily ranges, where I find myself getting trapped.
Allthough I'm only slightly down this month, I recognize the feeling I currently have from last year: I do what I can/know, but it's not leading to success. If I keep on trading (these type of days) the way I do currently, I will end-up in a hole.
So I must change something.

I notice that the profitable guys get-in early in the day and are taking their profits when I'm just starting and looking for confirmations of my hypo. So, that's one change I should make: getting in earlier in the day. I like trading opening ranges and VWAPs, so I should benefit more from this. I'm also trying to nail perfect entries, as a consequence I miss entries by 1 or 2 ticks like the long near the R1 level today.
There're probably some more changes to make, but I don't know which ones. I'll give this a good thought over the next couple of days. Again, I recognize the feeling of my current trading and it's not heading to where I want to be.

I'm not able to trade tomorrow, see you on Wednesday!

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Old April 21st, 2016, 10:34 AM   #306 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 21th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 2.7%
- China, up 1.8%
- Europe, 0.7 - 1%
- Oil, down 0.6%
- Gold, up 1.3%
- Bonds, down 8/32

Job claims were positive.
Philly fed is not positive, but neutral.
Several other news events today.

Important price levels
- 2105.25 ATH
- 2093.50 HVN on weekly and montly

Overnight is very choppy and within yesterday's range.

Several news releases today, overnight is very choppy and we set an ATH yesterday.
I'm expecting the market to be nervous today and and testing the ATH and the 2093.50 HVN.
My expectation is that it will be a range day, chaning into a trend day by breaking the mentioned levels.

I will be cautious, trading on important price levels only and remain on the sidelines when in doubt.

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Old April 21st, 2016, 03:35 PM   #307 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 21st

Context log
- Overnight, price was trading down very choppy with overlapping candles
- Upon the opening price went down (through the 2093.50 level) making new lows
- I'm lookin for a short at the VWAP / trendline. The internals are supporting a move down. Missed the entry by 2 ticks (price touched the trendline, but not the VWAP)
- Price is making new LOD at S1 / yesterday low. Will be looking for a short in a pullback from this level. Price pulled back to the trendline / VPOC / -1SD, took a short (trade #1)
- Pride pullsback to VWAP / significant price level on high tick, then makes a double bottom at the LOD. Price pullsback to VWAP / signficiant price level again on high volume, then makes a higher low.
- Price action looks bullish now, breadth is increasing and TICKS are high. I flip the position to long right at the VWAP (trade #2) with a small loss on the first trade
- Price makes a new high in the middle of the OR / PP. It pullsback to VWAP, making higher low
- A new high (by 1 tick) is created and price is pulling back to make new lower low. Maybe price will be range between the OR and LOD instead of ATH and the LOD. We'll see...
- A lower low has been created at OR low. Looks like a H&S pattern now. I decide to stay in the trade though. Breadth is still up and no ticks printing below -600. F***, stopped out by the tick
- Price pullsback to VWAP / signficant price level then makes a new lower low. Since my bias of a range day is still intact, I have a limit long resting at S1 level (trade #3). Price pulled back to VWAP then made a new LOD. Closed the trade when I lost confidence and saw a lot of sellers stepping in.

Trade 1: -1.75 points
- Pullback to trendline / VPOC / -1SD
- Breadth and iTRIN are both negative
- Short, risk 3 points, profit target 2082 (just above S2)
- Closed when price action and internals went to bullish
- Hindsight: Good decision to close this trade

Trade 2: -3 points
- Trend reversal (higher high and higher low). Expecting price to test the ATH
- Breadth is increasing and high TICKs
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target just below ATH
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Should have taken (small) profit when price made a higher low or higher high in the OR

Trade 3: -1 points
- Trade of low of the range day
- Internals are not confirming the trade (as often with fades)
- Long, risk 3 points, profit target OR high
- Closed when sellers stepped in near LOD
- Hindsight: Good decision

What I did well today, is that I closed the trades when I lost confidence instead of letting it hit the profit target.
What I did bad today, is that I acted too slow. On a low range day like this, I should not aim for 15 points on trade #2 and 10 points on trade #3. In stead, I should take small (3 points) and quick profits. Trade #2 was 5 points in profit, I let it turn into a 3 point loser.
My trading behaviour today fits a trend day, not a range day.
I realize more and more that range days should be traded much differently than I'm trading currently (fit for trend days).

I expect price to be grinding further towards to S2, but did not find any good entries (will cancel my sell limit order at S1 / yesterday low / IB low / VAL) and quit for today.

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Old April 21st, 2016, 03:37 PM   #308 (permalink)
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Range days....grrrrrrr

I did not have time to trade past 2 days, but I did find time to do some thinking and going through my charts.

My main problem is that I have not enough realized that range days should be traded so much differently than trend days or large range days.

Regarding entries, I've taken entries on price levels that are not significant looking from a broader perspective (/context) but seem important on that moment only. I might get away with this on trend days or large range days, but not on small range days. Also, when I just don't know what price will do, I should step away instead of forcing trade ideas to myself and get lured into a trade. @Rory mentioned this in the Scalpers thread already couple of days ago, spot on for me

Regarding profit targets, the profit targets are not in line with the range of the day. Like trade #2 today, I was thinking about setting the profit target at OR high but I didn't because I thought price would test the ATH. Of course the OR got hit and ATH did not get hit. Remaining in a trade works well on trend days but not on range days. It's better to take a small profit and re-enter on a pullback (only if it's on a significant price level).

During the trade I should act faster. Instead of giving the trade always enough room to hit my stop, I should close it when I see T&S / internals / price action going against me. This is behaviour that I learned myself a couple of months ago, but does not apply to range days. I did this well today BTW.

There were a couple of range days near the end of March that I did well on. This was because I took small profits of VWAP trades, instead of going for the home runs.

So on range days:
(1) Entries on important price levels (OHLC confluencing with pivot points)
(2) Small profit targets (3-4 points)
(3) Don't force any trade idea's, just step away

We'll see if this works.

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Old April 22nd, 2016, 10:40 AM   #309 (permalink)
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April 22nd prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 1.2%
- China, down 0.7%
- Europe, down 0.3 - 1.2%
- Oil, up 1.6%
- Gold, down 0.3%
- Bonds, slightly down

Overall sentiment is slightly negative.
No significant news expected today

Important price levels
- 2105.25 ATH
- 2093.50 HVN on weekly and montly

Overnight made a very small lower low.
Price is ranging between yesterday's IB low and ETH LOD.

I'm expecting another low range day where price is ranging between yesterday's VWAP (proven as an important zone yesterday) and yesterdays low / S1. There is more potential of price breaking down towards S2 than there is of price breaking up towards R1 or yesterday high.

I won't force any trades today, will be trading of important price levels only and keep small profit targets.

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Old April 22nd, 2016, 10:58 AM   #310 (permalink)
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For some reason, it suddenly occurred to me that "GruttePier" might be an important historical figure, at least in the Netherlands.

Sure enough: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pier_Gerlofs_Donia



Is there a story there, or do you just like him?

Bob.

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