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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,242 / 726
Last Reply:17 Hours Ago (08:15 AM) Attachments:289

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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 11th, 2016, 06:33 PM   #291 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Inletcap View Post
GP- consider adding RTH VWAP (some good ideas come from it and the 1SD bands (contextually of course )


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These are on my charts already:

The green dash-dot-dash line is the VWAP.
The gray dash-dot-dash lines are the SD bands.

Todays and Friday's trades were taken of these levels

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Old April 11th, 2016, 06:49 PM   #292 (permalink)
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I think those are ETH that you have on there. Try RTH (9:30-4:15 ET) as well since you are only trading the cash session. You will find some good stuff! Today's were quite similar but not usually the case

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Old April 12th, 2016, 12:25 PM   #293 (permalink)
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April 12th prep


Started trading 2 hours after the market opened, missing part of the fun.

Market overview
- Japan, up 1.1%
- China, up 0.3%
- Europe, up 0.4%
- Oil, up 1.9%
- Gold, down slightly
- Bonds, down slightly

Red book figures this morning were slightly better than expected.
Import and export figures are flat, with export excluding petrol slightly better.
Overall sentiment is positive.

Important price levels
- 2067. Previous week high, important SR level for further upside
- 2057. HVN on weekly, monthly and ATH composite
- 2025. Previous week low, important SR level for further drop to 2012 level

Market is trading within yesterday's range sofar.

I'm expecting a trend day up, with price testing the 2067 level.
Since I started trading 2 hours after the open, I will be looking for a pullback to enter long.

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Old April 12th, 2016, 12:52 PM   #294 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
...
I'm expecting a trend day up, with price testing the 2067 level.

Wow

That would make >160% of ATR14 ...

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Old April 12th, 2016, 02:41 PM   #295 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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choke35 View Post
Wow

That would make >160% of ATR14 ...

Ah, right. A typo, I meant the 2057 level and not 2067 level.
Thanks!

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Old April 12th, 2016, 04:28 PM   #296 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 12th

Context log
- Price made a higher high and higher low overnight
- After the open price made a new high and then fell through the OR making a LOD. Since then, price is making higher lows and higher highs. It found resistance at exactly ADR high
- Price is holding strong on the R1 / 2SD level despite the large orders against the bid. Will be looking for a pullback towards the HVN around 2045.50
- Price is making small new highs and seems exhausted. Don't think it will make it towards yesterday's high
- Price keeps making new highs, market breadth is slowly decreasing though. Higher high, followed by a lower high (price failed to make a new high by 2 ticks) and a lower low (2 ticks also). Will be looking for a short around the HOD (2053). TICK divergence at HOD and breadth is decreasing. Took a short (trade #1)
- Stopped out, seems like my hypo does come true :-(
- Spotted a retail bus setup on the 5 minute, took a long (trade #2). Profit target reached

Trade 1: -3 points
- Exhaustion near HOD, 2 small lower highs and lower lows
- Breadth decreasing, TICK divergence near HOD
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target nearest HVN (2045)
- Hindsight: I don't know, guess the setup just didn't work this time

Trade 2: +4.5 points
- Retail bus on the 5 minute
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above signficant price level 2057 / +2SD
- Profit target reached
- Hindsight: starting to like to retail bus setups

Changed my VWAP settings to RTH (thanks @Inletcap!)

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The retail bus setup of trade #2:
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Old April 13th, 2016, 12:07 PM   #297 (permalink)
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April 13th prep

Started trading 1.5 hour after the open.

Market overview
- Japan, up 2.8%
- China, up 3.2%
- Europe, up 1.5-2.8%
- Oil, down 0.4%
- Gold, down 0.8%
- Bonds, slightly down
- S&P is up 0.6% sofar.

Overall sentiment is positive
No news expected today

Important price levels
- 2086,25. Next significant SR level
- 2055.00. Important HVN on week, month and ATH composite
-

Overnight made made new high.
Price is swinging in a 6 point range since.

I'm expecting a consolidation day where price is ranging around the new highs.
Price is likely to breakout below. If that happens, I expect price to test 2055 HVN.

I'll be looking for shorts from the upper range and be taking small profits.

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Old April 13th, 2016, 04:36 PM   #298 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 13th

Context log
- Price made a new high overnight
- Since the open, price is swinging in a 6 point range
- TICK is mostly printing above 0, breadth is climbing but iTRIN is declining
- I was looking for a short of the upper range, but price moved with a lot of force so I did not take the short. Price broke out and is making a new high currently. Waiting for a pullback to IB high to enter, but price pullsback 1 point only. I miss the (small) breakout. T&S is showing large orders, indicating buyers are active. Limit long order moved to 2SD. Filled (trade #1)
- Price is made a low at IB high / 1SD (initial entry level). Breadth looks strong, iTRIN seems to recover (around 0.8). Price pulled back further to VWAP / trendline. Stopped out
- Price is ranging in a 10 point range. While I thought earlier that my range bias was incorrect, it does seems to be a range dag. I'll be looking for shorts on high levels
- Price is finding support around VAH, took a short (trade #2). Price makes a new HOD then pulls back to IB high rapidly
- What surprises me, is that TICK is printing above 0 mostly and peaked above 600 several times. Price however does not move much. Breadth keeps climbing, iTRIn is nearly flat and therefore unreliable
- The final hour has started. I never like going into this with an open position since the first couple of minutes the activity increases and price is making weird jumps.


Trade 1: -4 points
- Pullback to SD2 after range breakout
- iTRIN jumps to decling to rising in green area. Breadth keeps increasing steadilly
- Long, risk 4 points, profit target 2077 (2 points above R2)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Setup just didn't work this time, allthough I did let go of my hypo very quickly after the breakout

Trade 2: -4 points
- Pullback to just above VAH
- iTRIN is neutral. Breadth is climbing slowly
- Short, risk 4 points (stop above R2), profit target VAL / -1SD
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Just didn't work

A 12 point range and I lost 8 points...

I'm not able to trade tomorrow and likely not on Friday either.

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Old April 14th, 2016, 04:31 AM   #299 (permalink)
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April 13th evaluation

Yesterday's trading has kept me thinking.

The levels I've been trading were not significant enough.
Trading of an 2SD level with no confluence with other price levels like a pivot point or yesterday's OHLC is not a high probability trade but a gamble.

It's better to wait all day and not take any trades, then to jump on a synthetic price level without confluence and price action looking good.

Looking at yesterday's chart with this view, there were no good opportunites.
I should not have taken any trades.

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Old April 14th, 2016, 05:36 AM   #300 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Yesterday's trading has kept me thinking.

The levels I've been trading were not significant enough.
Trading of an 2SD level with no confluence with other price levels like a pivot point or yesterday's OHLC is not a high probability trade but a gamble.

It's better to wait all day and not take any trades, then to jump on a synthetic price level without confluence and price action looking good.

Looking at yesterday's chart with this view, there were no good opportunites.
I should not have taken any trades.

An important insight. Many traders live under the (wrong) impression that any session must have trades.
Otherwise their whole existence in front of the screen(s) would be wasted, wouldn't it?

What might be OK for automatical systems that are always in the market, can be devastating for discretionary
traders - financially and emotionally as well. Because the logical consequence of "at least one trade per session"
is taking trades that don't meet the requirements or lowering the requirements down to the point where one
can at least take one trade. This bad habit is often aggravated by a second bad habit: asset myopia. Many traders
have an asset horizon with radius 0, i.e. they base their whole trading only on one asset, e.g. the ES. Both bad
habits combined, junk trades are nearly hard-wired.

Thus knowing when not to trade is often as important esp for discretionary traders as knowing when to trade,
sometimes even more important. And between these two extremes there's a grayscale waiting to be explored,
e.g. by scaling in and out of different assets and positions according to their level of conviction (however the
individual trader defines that).

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