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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,699 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 7th, 2016, 03:48 PM   #281 (permalink)
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April 7th

Context log
- Overnight make a small higher high, then sellers came in and pushed price back to yesterday's VWAP
- Upon opening, price made lower higher and made a double bottom at the OR low
- Price is trading at -1SD currently. TRIN is below 0.80 (indicating strength) but rising and TICK is making downticks only. Looks like negative sentiment on short term
- Price seems to have a hard time at OR high, iTRIN is declining and TICK is not above 0. Took a short (trade #1). I have difficulty finding a suitable profit target. Set it at a HVN at 2040
- Price tested VWAP, then went down sharply. Price is finding support S1. Many 100+ orders traded against the offer, but price is not moving. This is an indication of a weak market. I'll be adding when price pulls back to OR low
- Price does not pullback but goes straight to my profit target. I decided to move it further down given the weak market (greedy SOB). Price ticks my (previous) profit target then pulls back. I don't trust iTRIN creeping up and take my profit. If I'd be trading more contracts, I would take profit on 1st contract here. Don't push my luck trading only 1 contract
- I'm in doubt to go long or not. iTRIN is up (indicating up trend) and TICK is making higher highs (diverging with price). On the otherhand once can see this as a pullback for a further move down. I decide to do nothing
- Price is slowly trending down, have a limit order long waiting at 2035. This does not get hit by 2 points, price is making a higher high. TICK is making above 0 for half an hour now. Next opportunity is to go long in a pullback. Long at IB low / -1SD (trade #2). Stopped out
- ... (no updates in the context log)
- I'm in trade 5 now. Price is pulling back after missing my profit target with 0.5 point. In decide to move the stop to breakeven to give the trade a small change instead of taking a small profit. Since price barely touched my profit target (S2), it's likely that it will move back towards VWAP and not get near S2 again.

Trade 1: +6.75 points
- Short from OR / trendline, anticipating price breakout through the OR low
- TICK is going down steadilly, TICK is making mostly down TICKS
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 2040 (high volume zone)
- Closed
- Hindsight: Easy. Looking at the chart 1.5 hours later, I should have kept it. Trading multiple contract is the only way to overcome this

Trade 2: -4 points
- Long from IB low, price making a higher low and higher high just above a strong support zone (yesterday low, -2SD, week low, RTH ADR low)
- TICK is postive and making higher highs+lows, iTRIN is not supportive by keep going down
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below OR low
- Stopped out

Trade 3: -2.25 points
- Short, anticipating breakthrough
- Short 1 contract, risk 2.5 points, profit target just above S2
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Rightfully stopped

Trade 4: -2.5 points
- Pullback to price level
- Long 1 contract, risk 2.5 points, profit target S1
- Stopped
- Hindsight: good decision

Trade 5: breakeven
- Break through important price level
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above S2
- Stopped out (by 1 tick)

I suffered from overtrading today.
The first trade was in line with my bias for the day and turned out profitable.
Trade 3, 4 and 5 were trades trying to catch price / gambling. As allways, this results in a loss.
Trade 6 was again a clear and easy trade. An important price level was broken, next important price level is S2. Made the mistake to not give it any room by moving the stop to BE during the pullback -> trading scared. As I'm typing this, I see price going hitting my profit target.

Enough time this weekend to think about my trading today.
I'm not able to trade tomorrow.

See you all on Monday!

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Old April 8th, 2016, 03:50 PM   #282 (permalink)
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April 8th

I was able to trade 1 hour of the Friday afternoon session and did not expect any opportunities.
However, I did find one. A VWAP trade

Enjoy the weekend!

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Old April 8th, 2016, 08:24 PM   #283 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I was able to trade 1 hour of the Friday afternoon session and did not expect any opportunities.
However, I did find one. A VWAP trade

Enjoy the weekend!

Beautiful 1 dev trade. In and out, money in the bank, no sweat. Well executed with no hesitation or confirmations or any of that crap people desire so much!

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Old April 9th, 2016, 06:23 AM   #284 (permalink)
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Beautiful 1 dev trade. In and out, money in the bank, no sweat. Well executed with no hesitation or confirmations or any of that crap people desire so much!

Thanks!
Did you manage to catch it all the way to ADR low?

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Old April 10th, 2016, 11:05 AM   #285 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks!
Did you manage to catch it all the way to ADR low?

I got back in late as I was doing some other stuff at the office- proved to be too late and took a scratch. Pissed I missed a perfect vwap trade but you can't get em all- or can you?

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Old April 10th, 2016, 01:29 PM   #286 (permalink)
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I got back in late as I was doing some other stuff at the office- proved to be too late and took a scratch. Pissed I missed a perfect vwap trade but you can't get em all- or can you?

Right. You'll have to leave some for the rest

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Old April 11th, 2016, 11:06 AM   #287 (permalink)
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Prep April 11th

Market overview
- Japan, down 0.4%
- China, up 0.4%
- Europe, up 0.6 - 1%
- Oil, up 1.7%
- Gold, up 0.8%
- Bonds, slightly down

Overall sentiment is slightly positive.
FED at 17.30 CET

Important price levels
- 2067. Previous week high, important SR level for further upside
- 2057. HVN on weekly, monthly and ATH composite
- 2025. Previous week low, important SR level for further drop to 2012 level

Overnight made a new low, but was trading well within Friday's range.

Until the FED meeting at 17.30 CET, I expect the market to be ranging, maybe going up slightly towards 2057 level. Depending on the announcement(s), markets can response volatile.
If we break through the 2057 level, I expect market to be trending up and testing the 2067 level.
If the sentiments turns worse, I expect market to be trending down, through the ON low and testing the 2025 level.

I'll be cautions with my entries today and will not trade around the news.


Last edited by GruttePier; April 11th, 2016 at 11:15 AM. Reason: typo
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Old April 11th, 2016, 11:26 AM   #288 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Until the FED meeting at 17.30 CET, I expect the market to be ranging, maybe going up slightly towards 2057 level. Depending on the announcement(s), markets can response volatile.
If we break through the 2057 level, I expect market to be trending up and testing the 2067 level.
If the sentiments turns worse, I expect market to be trending down, through the ON low and testing the 2025 level.

I'll be cautions with my entries today and will not trade around the news.

Forgot about that Fed meeting. Thanks.

Bob.

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Old April 11th, 2016, 04:16 PM   #289 (permalink)
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April 11th

Context log
- Price is chopping around and found a chopping way up 30 mins after the RTH open. There are many overlapping candles, confirming the chop
- A/D line is above 2000, indicating strength. iTRIN is moving downwards and is slightly above 0.8 (indication range). TICK is ticking :-) above 0 only
- Price seems to find resistance at 2056.50 (see prep for the identified SR level). I'll be looking for a long a decent pullback. Price did indeed found resistance at this level, should have faded it
- Price is falling sharply, throught the opening range. Tempting to take VWAP trade to -1SD (sitting nicely at PP), but with only 45 minutes left till the FED, I'm not going to take any trades. I'm expecting price to chopping and range from now on. OK, second opportunity missed today
- Price made a new low of the day, then pulled back to VWAP again. It's 17.30 CET, nothing happens. Scan several news sites and come to know that FED is at 18.30 CET (don't laugh)
- Price make a now LOD and is chopping. Pullsback to upper trendline @ VPOC, then making a double top. Tempting to go short, but FED is in 10 mins from now
- Price makes a higher low and a higher high at the OR high. Price pullsback, barely making a lower low, then retraces to the lower trendline. Took a short at VWAP / trendline (trade #1). Internals like A/D and TRIN are weak, confirming the short. Price makes a powerfull move down right after my entry
- Price is chopping since, making a double top and double bottom. Finally price breaks down, making a double bottom at the LOD. Since I don't like trading in the final hour and don't have the patience for another pullback, I decide to take my profit


Trade 1: +4.75 points
- Retracement to trendline
- A/D line is from positive to neutral, iTRIN is oscillating around 0.80 and TICK is making -600 prints at the swing lows
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above ADR low / -2SD)
- Closed
- Hindsight: Don't know. Will see later today

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Old April 11th, 2016, 05:20 PM   #290 (permalink)
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GP- consider adding RTH VWAP (some good ideas come from it and the 1SD bands (contextually of course )


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