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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,650 / 733
Last Reply:9 Hours Ago (04:16 AM) Attachments:291

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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 6th, 2016, 05:05 PM   #271 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Inletcap View Post
You are well on your way my friend! Spreading your wings and trying/experiencing new things. When I just read your post I realized that you are now truly understanding markets clearly. That's awesome- an entire perspective cannot be beat- it can be challenged, but not beaten.

Thanks, that's nice to hear.

I was really stuck at that time. Then you came in my journal and opened my eyes.
I know I still have lots and lots to learn, but making a small profit along the learning curve is nice and motivating .
Maybe one day I might even come close to your half or your results, but for now it's consistency that I must work on.

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Old April 6th, 2016, 05:38 PM   #272 (permalink)
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ADR

I updated my big, hairy excelsheet in which I record my trades and calculate my stats.

I included the following data:
- Daily range of the days that I traded that particular month
- The average profitable trade as a percentage of the daily ranges traded in that particular month
- The same for the losing trades

Below are the results sofar:
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As my risk per trade remains roughly the same, I expect the percentage of losing trades to flucuate depending on the ADR. That's fine, I'm not paying attention on this.

The percentage of profitable trades must increase to capture more of the daily moves.
That's why I'll be focussing on this and keeping stats.

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Old April 6th, 2016, 06:42 PM   #273 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I updated my big, hairy excelsheet in which I record my trades and calculate my stats.

I included the following data:
- Daily range of the days that I traded that particular month
- The average profitable trade as a percentage of the daily ranges traded in that particular month
- The same for the losing trades

Below are the results sofar:
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


As my risk per trade remains roughly the same, I expect the percentage of losing trades to flucuate depending on the ADR. That's fine, I'm not paying attention on this.

The percentage of profitable trades must increase to capture more of the daily moves.
That's why I'll be focussing on this and keeping stats.

I really like that data I need to start using that. Also how do u deal with the noise of the trin on the open I never found it useful because of this. Nice trading by the way keep it up

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Old April 7th, 2016, 10:01 AM   #274 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Trade 1: +8.75 points
- Anticipating a reversal near extreme of day

Trade 2: -2.5 points
- Anticipating a reversal near extreme of the day
...
- Hindsight: I need more information than only internals to go counter-trend. Better to wait for a lower high than predicting the HOD. I can analyse what I want, but this was just a stupid amateur trade in trying to predict a top

I am not entirely sure I agree with the judgment "this was just a stupid amateur trade in trying to predict a top".

That it was a top that didn't happen is clear in hindsight. It is also a common amateur move to predict tops.... But the rationale, as offered, was not too different from the rationale for the successful long trade off the bottom.... An extreme of the range, etc. If the day had worked out to be more a range day, it would have, in hindsight, been pure genius.

I don't truly know how to figure out whether it will be a range, or a trend, or if it will change from one to another. I do know that you have to take your choice at the time. The "correct" strategy to trade a range is to go against the direction of price at the range limit, and be ready to be wrong, if you are. I have a lot of trouble with that, which is why I put "correct" in quotes -- it's supposed to be right, anyway.

But it wasn't dumb, it simply didn't work. There may be some things that can be looked at that would have helped get it right, but it wasn't just a pointless mistake....

By the way, please let me know when you've discovered how to know when to fade a range, and when not to. I would truly like to know it!

Bob.

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Old April 7th, 2016, 10:52 AM   #275 (permalink)
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April 7th prep

Futures Edge on FIO
Market overview
- Japan, slightly up
- China, slightly up
- Europe, slightly down
- Oil, down 1%
- Gold, up 1.4%
- Bonds, slightly up
Overall sentiment is slightly negative.

Good news on the jobless claims this morning.
Yellen speaks toningt

Important price levels
- 2067.00 Last weeks high, resistance level towards new highs
- 2057.00 VPOC on weekly and ATH composite, HVN on monthly
- 2034.25 Week low

Overnight made a small higher high, then dropped towards yesterday´s VWAP.

Considerations
- The positive news on the lower than expected jobless claims might give the market a push upwards
- Yellen speaks tonight, markets might be holding back in anticipation of the speach

I'm expecting price to be trading in the range 2034 - 2057.
I'll be looking for longs on pullbacks above the OR and viseversa for shorts. Depending on the market context at that moment, I'll be taking a long of the 2034 and short of the 2057.

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Old April 7th, 2016, 10:59 AM   #276 (permalink)
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nightshade View Post
I really like that data I need to start using that. Also how do u deal with the noise of the trin on the open I never found it useful because of this. Nice trading by the way keep it up

Thanks nightshade!

I'm not a pro on trading with TRIN, but my experiences sofar:
- It's unreliable during the first hour of trading (as with RTH VWAP and SD bands)
- If, for example, TRIN is trading below 0.80 (indicating strenght) but market is positive (say above VWAP), I noticed that sooner or later on the day sentiment turns towards negative

Seems like you are trading with TRIN also.
How do you use it in your trading, what's your experience with it?

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Old April 7th, 2016, 11:11 AM   #277 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
I am not entirely sure I agree with the judgment "this was just a stupid amateur trade in trying to predict a top".

That it was a top that didn't happen is clear in hindsight. It is also a common amateur move to predict tops.... But the rationale, as offered, was not too different from the rationale for the successful long trade off the bottom.... An extreme of the range, etc. If the day had worked out to be more a range day, it would have, in hindsight, been pure genius.

I don't truly know how to figure out whether it will be a range, or a trend, or if it will change from one to another. I do know that you have to take your choice at the time. The "correct" strategy to trade a range is to go against the direction of price at the range limit, and be ready to be wrong, if you are. I have a lot of trouble with that, which is why I put "correct" in quotes -- it's supposed to be right, anyway.

But it wasn't dumb, it simply didn't work. There may be some things that can be looked at that would have helped get it right, but it wasn't just a pointless mistake....

By the way, please let me know when you've discovered how to know when to fade a range, and when not to. I would truly like to know it!

Bob.

He Bob,

there was discussion in Scalpers Thread on when people get irritated during their trading. Some get pissed when they miss opportunities, some when they loose, etc.
I have no issues with a losing trade as long as it's a nice setup but the trade just didn´t work that time. What I cannot stand though, is when made a stupid trade.

When stopped out on the failed trade yesterday, I felt like an amateur trying to predict a top and short it. I agree that there is a thin line between a stupid trade and a genius trade.
Thanks for putting things in perspective.

I'll let you know when I found the silver bullet in fading. Promise me you do the same once you found it

GP

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Old April 7th, 2016, 11:54 AM   #278 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I'll let you know when I found the silver bullet in fading. Promise me you do the same once you found it

It's a deal.



Bob.

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Old April 7th, 2016, 01:43 PM   #279 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Thought you already got one ...


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Old April 7th, 2016, 02:26 PM   #280 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks nightshade!

I'm not a pro on trading with TRIN, but my experiences sofar:
- It's unreliable during the first hour of trading (as with RTH VWAP and SD bands)
- If, for example, TRIN is trading below 0.80 (indicating strenght) but market is positive (say above VWAP), I noticed that sooner or later on the day sentiment turns towards negative

Seems like you are trading with TRIN also.
How do you use it in your trading, what's your experience with it?

i don't use it anymore because of the first hour noise, that's why i was asking you about it. i find the adv decln works better for me. but always looking for new ways to look at the trin maybe i might find it usefull one day

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