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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:39,352 / 758
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old April 5th, 2016, 11:50 AM   #261 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 5th prep

Started trading 1.5 hour after the open

Market overview
- Japan, down 2.4%
- China, down 1.6%
- Europe, down 1-2%
- US, down 0.3-0.6%
- Oil, neutral
- Gold, up 1%
- Bonds, slightly up
No major news expected.
Overall sentiment is negative

Important price levels
- 2063.50 Naked VPOC
- 2058.75 Yesterday high, important resistance level
- 2025.25 Naked VPOC

Price made a lower low overnight.

I'm expecting a low range day, with prices grinding down slowly.
Will be looking for shorts from the highs and pullbacks today.

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Old April 5th, 2016, 04:12 PM   #262 (permalink)
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April 5th

Context log
- Price dropped overnight, making a lower low and is chopping since
- Upon the opening, a new LOD was created. Price moved through the OR and found resistance just above S2. Since, price made a lower low, lower high and a lower low at S3 / VAL
- Price pulls back into a 1 point zone with OR high / trendline / VPOC / VWAP and made a higher high. Prices moves back up towards the trendline. Will be looking for a short if it holds, and a long if the price level breaks. TICK is making higher highs and printing above 500 ticks, iVIX is making higher highs. Took a long (trade #1)
- Price does not continue with the move up, despite the high TICK print. I go caught in a failed breakout. Reversing position on the TICK divergence (trade #2)
- Price is making a new low on S3 / VAL
- Dinner, leaving with stops in place
- Price made a lower high at the VWAP / trendline, then made a powerful move down just above the LOD. Was in doubt to take profit and re-enter at a higher level, but decided to stay in the trade and let it pull back. Price pulled back nicely to the trendline / OR low
- Price made a new LOD, just 2 ticks above my profit target, then retraced to OR low. Stopped out at breakeven
- Price is chopping around the RTH VWAP. Internals TICK and iVIX are flat
- Price makes a new high around VAH. iTRIN is finally moving upwards towards 0.8, showing strength. I have a limit order waiting to go long at VWAP / trendline
- Price moves up without the pullback to VWAP, so my order is not triggered
- Done for the day, I don't like trading in the final hour

Trade 1: -2.5 points
- Price made higher high, broke slightly trough upper trendline
- iVIX ismaking higher highs+lows, TICK is making higher highs and printing above 500
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target S2
- Closed when price did not continue the move up
- Hindsight: Was caught in a failed breakout, good decision to close position

Trade 2: 0 points
- Downtrend continues, price pulled back towards OR high
- TICK and iVIX making divergence with price
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target LOD / -2SD
- Hindsight: Profit target was below the LOD and did not get hit by 2 ticks. It's a range day, so I should trade in the day range and take smaller profits.

I need to be more aggresive in taking smaller profits on range days. Profit targets outside the day range are likely not to be hit.

I've been using the VIX for a couple months now and find that it does not add much value. If price goes up, so does VIX. And viseversa. On few occations there is a divergence with price, but TICK is also diverging then.
I added TRIN again and feel this gives me more info about the overall market.

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Old April 5th, 2016, 05:32 PM   #263 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I need to be more aggresive in taking smaller profits on range days. Profit targets outside the day range are likely not to be hit.

You stopped trading too soon- they were hit

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Old April 6th, 2016, 10:11 AM   #264 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
You stopped trading too soon- they were hit

Yeah...I get to play the market until 21.00 CET (3 pm EST). Then all my attention goes to the wife and dog

Congrats on your shorts by the way.
I know you've been waiting all day for this

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Old April 6th, 2016, 11:18 AM   #265 (permalink)
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April 6th prep

Futures Edge on FIO
Market overview
- Japan, neutral
- China, neutral
- Europe, neutral
- Oil, up 2.5%
- Gold, down 0.5%
- Bonds, slightly down

Overall sentiment is neutral, with exception of oil.
Weekly oil report, probably the reason for the push up in oil.
Markets are waiting for FOMC at 20.00 CET (2 pm).

Important price levels
- 2063.50 Naked VPOC
- 2058.75 Yesterday high, important resistance level
- 2034.50 Zone with LOD, -2SD and yesterday low
- 2025.25 Naked VPOC

Overnight made a higher high overnight.
Until the FOMC, I don't expect much movement, in line with the other markets today.
Price will likely be trading around this months VPOC (2039).

I will take trades of the extremes (HOD / LOD) towards the VWAP.
Will be watching the market around FOMC, but not trade it.

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Old April 6th, 2016, 01:19 PM   #266 (permalink)
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April 6th

Context log
- Price made a new high overnight and has been dropping since
- After the open, price set a new LOD, tested the OR high and failed to make a new LOD
- I have a limit order long resting on LOD, anticipating a move up (range day). Price does not seem to come this far, TICK is making higher highs and TRIN is creeping up strong. Took a long (trade #1). A couple of minutes later, price flies up then goes down heavilly. I realize that the oil report came out. Bad preperation on my side, I thought it was out already. Anyway, I'm still in the market and price made a lower low just above the LOD. Its testing yesterday's close, PP, VWAP and manages to breakout and make a new HOD at 1SD. This is the confirmation that my trade idea is working
- I'm doubt on what to do now. Close at 1SD and re-enter on a pullback, or add when price pulls back (knowing that I have a bad track record with adding). I decide to stay in the trade and add on a pullback. I need to get better at adding, so I might as well learn in this trade.
- Price hit my profit target. I made a error there but not closing the trading, but adding. Closed both contract immediately
- Price continued further towards yesterday high. I'm waiting for price to move a little further towards the overnight high and will take a short there. Took a short (trade #2). Stopped out on further move up
- The daily range is 17 points now, with price creeping up slowly now. It's not a VWAP ping-pong day like I expected. Price seems to pullback to overnight high. I will not take a trade. Volume has dried up, the overnight high is not significant enough and I expect the market to be waiting for the FOMC
- Going to bring my vote for the Ukraine referendum and then have dinner. Will return around 20.00 to see what market does with FOMC. I don't expect to be trading

Trade 1: +8.75 points
- Anticipating a reversal near extreme of day
- TICK is making higher high and higher low and TRIN is creeping up (-1.4 to -1.2) confirming a change in the market
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 2046 (HVN on ATH composite, just below R1)
- Hindsight 1: Trading on the extremes of a range day feels weird. It's like counter-trend, very uncomfortable. But it turned out very well. I need to keep on doing this and reinforce this behaviour
- Hindsight 2: I really need to experiment with adding. Taking multipe entries in a zone and scaling out on various profit targets

Trade 2: -2.5 points
- Anticipating a reversal near extreme of the day
- TICK is diverging with price, iTRIN is dropping and confirming a change in the market
- Short 1 contract, risk 2.5 points (just enough to cover a failed breakout), profit target at 1SD
- Again, it feels weird trying to catch a top. Price action has not confirmed a top, internals are slightly supporting this hypo
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: I need more information than only internals to go counter-trend. Better to wait for a lower high than predicting the HOD. I can analyse what I want, but this was just a stupid amateur trade in trying to predict a top

I dropped the VIX because it's not bringing me additional information and have the TRIN back on my screen. It gives me more market information than the VIX, happy to have it again.

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Old April 6th, 2016, 01:39 PM   #267 (permalink)
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Impressive hold on the first trade. Nice work!

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Old April 6th, 2016, 03:16 PM   #268 (permalink)
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Nice GP!

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Old April 6th, 2016, 03:20 PM   #269 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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FlyingMonkey View Post
Impressive hold on the first trade. Nice work!

Thanks!

Actually, the holding was not that difficult.
Once price broke through the OR high making a new HOD, I knew I was right with my hypothesis. Expecting a range day, I set my profit target just below overnight high, in this case R1.

As price moves between price levels, it finds resistance at the levels -in this specific example- SD1, R1, yesterday high, overnight high, ADR high and R2. You check the chart and see that price found resistance at these mentioned levels.

I had to convince myself that this was really true. @Inletcap told me, but I never experienced it. So I just did and guess what...

My next goal is to scale in and out properly because that's -what I believe- the key to maximizing profits.

BTW, nice trading for you today!

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Old April 6th, 2016, 04:01 PM   #270 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks!

Actually, the holding was not that difficult.
Once price broke through the OR high making a new HOD, I knew I was right with my hypothesis. Expecting a range day, I set my profit target just below overnight high, in this case R1.

As price moves between price levels, it finds resistance at the levels -in this specific example- SD1, R1, yesterday high, overnight high, ADR high and R2. You check the chart and see that price found resistance at these mentioned levels.

I had to convince myself that this was really true. @Inletcap told me, but I never experienced it. So I just did and guess what...

My next goal is to scale in and out properly because that's -what I believe- the key to maximizing profits.

BTW, nice trading for you today!

You are well on your way my friend! Spreading your wings and trying/experiencing new things. When I just read your post I realized that you are now truly understanding markets clearly. That's awesome- an entire perspective cannot be beat- it can be challenged, but not beaten.

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