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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,639 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old March 30th, 2016, 03:41 PM   #251 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 30th

Started trading late today, missing the first 1.5 hours.

Context log
- After yesterday's rally, price made a new overnight high and setting a higher low upon the opening
- During the first 30 mins, price made a higer high and found support at OR high
- Price is now testing the HOD (moved higher with 1 tick). There does not seem to be much conviction in the market to push to new highs. I'm looking for a short. Just missed the push down from the new HOD, don't want to chase it. Will be shorting on the next pullback since I'm expecting price to test the lows. Took a short (trade #1)
- Price made a new small high, flipped to long (trade #2). I then realized my stupid emotional response that price was just going towards my anticipated level (2065) and flipped back to short (trade #3). This fuckup cost me 4.5 points. Forget it and focus on the trade
- Price is making a new low, bias seems to workout. Price just moved through the opening range. Will be looking to add a short on a pullback
- Added when price broke through the OR low / HVN. Add was not at a good level giving me anxiety the next 2 hours during the pullback. There were no signs that my bias was not correct, so decided to stay in the trade. I definitly need to add better -> goal #2 for April
- Profit target on 1st contract reached. Moved stoploss of 2nd contract to just above -1SD and previous swing high. Stoploss
- Was considering a VWAP to -1SD trade when price pulled back to VWAP, but was too late. Price did go to -1SD
- Price pullback to VWAP, making a higher high with a lot of TICK. Seems like price moving up and not willing to fill the opening gap

Trade 1: -2.5 points
- Pullback to lower high at 1SD/VAH
- TICK made a lower low on the last low
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target -2SD
- Flipped to trade #2

Stupid trade 2: -2 points
- No explanation on this one

Trade 3: +10 points
- Trading bias again, expecting price has set a new HOD is now looking to close the gap
- 1st short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target -2SD
- Added 2nd contract short, profit target 2048 (just above yesterday's high/close, ADR and important price level)
- Profit target 1st contract, P&L +10.50 points
- Stoploss on 2nd ontract hit, P&L -0.5 points
- Hindsight: nice trade on 1st contract, the add of the 2nd contract was at a wrong place

Allthough in profit and market played my bias by going down from the 2064-65 level, I'm not satisfied with today:
- Took a stupid emotion-driven flip from short (trade #1) to long (trade #2) which cost me 4.5 points
- The add on trade #3 was at the wrong place. I'm not good at adding sofar, will focus on the add's in April

But....
- I nearly caught the daily range with trade #3
- The 10.50 points profit in 1 trade is a new record. Previous record was 10.25 points

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Last edited by GruttePier; March 30th, 2016 at 03:47 PM.
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Old March 30th, 2016, 03:50 PM   #252 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
- I nearly caught the daily range with trade #3
- The 10.50 points profit in 1 trade is a new record. Previous record was 10.25 points


That's what I'm talking about!!! You and @bobwest feeling the feeling of those 10pt trades


Last edited by Inletcap; March 30th, 2016 at 05:09 PM.
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Old March 30th, 2016, 04:12 PM   #253 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
- The 10.50 points profit in 1 trade is a new record. Previous record was 10.25 points

Nice!

Upped me by .25. Mine is still 10.25.

Bob.

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Old March 30th, 2016, 04:18 PM   #254 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
That's what I'm talking about!!! You and @bobwest feeling the feeling of those 10pt trades

Yeah, those 10 pointers taste very good .
I'm sure @bobwest agrees.

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Old March 30th, 2016, 04:19 PM   #255 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Nice!

Upped me by .25. Mine is still 10.25.

Bob.

Ha ha....I"m sure you'll make a new record soon

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Old March 31st, 2016, 03:13 PM   #256 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 31st

Started trading around 17.30 CET (2 hours after the open)

Market overview
- Japan, down 0.7%
- China, neutral
- Europe, down 0.5 - 1.5%
- Oil, up 0.8%
- Gold, up 0.6%
- Bonds, slightly up
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly positive

No news expected this session.

Important price levels
- 2070.00 HVN since ATH
- 2065.50 SR level
- 2056.75 VPOC since ATH, opening gap high
- 2048.00 Yesterday high, opening gap low

Market is in a very tight trading range of 6 points since the open, with a small slope upwards.
There is little volume and volatility today.

My goal today is to remain on the sideline, unless there is an opportunity at the extermes. I will take small profits. I'm still learning to trade range days, today is one.

Context log
- Price made a lower low overnight and is since then trading in a small upward channel
- Price pulls back and seems to find support at OR high / PP / trendline. Can't ignore this, took a long (trade #1) with small profit target. Profit target hit

Trade 1: +2.25 points
- Pullback to price level (PP, OR high, VWAP, trendline)
- TICK is up mostly today, making smaller lows
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points (below OR), profit target 2SD
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Textbook

This was my last trade for March. I will post the month review Sunday or Monday evening.

The March results.....a stunning 39 points! Yes, black and not red.
Improvement on all points and my goals for this month have been met.

At the start of my journal I mentioned going live after 3 profitable months....
Well, I went live in the beginning of March already
Need to work on my discipline, he he

Gonna wax the boat with a big smile on my face tomorrow and plunch it, so no trading for me.
See you on Monday!

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Old March 31st, 2016, 04:21 PM   #257 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
At the start of my journal I mentioned going live after 3 profitable months....
Well, I went live in the beginning of March already
Need to work on my discipline, he he

Dang! Very well done.

Bob.

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Old April 3rd, 2016, 06:24 PM   #258 (permalink)
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March results and evaluation

My main goal for March was to increase the profit of winning trades by letting trades hit the profit target and not close the trades earlier. The average profit per winning trade in March was 5.50 points, where it was 4.53 in February and 3.30 in January. This is an increase of 1 point per average winning trade, despite March having a lot of range days.
The stats (below) also show an increase of the profit target being hit in 29% of all trades (was 18% in February and 7% in January). I can say that I have succeeded this goal.

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Entries
In 68% of all trades, price moves atleast 3 points in my direction. This is in line with previous months, indicating that my entries have not improved. Allthough 68% feels like a high percentage to me, this can be better. I've taken a total of 8 stupid and emotion-based entries that were not necessary

Stops
- In 27% (/11 trades) of all trades, the (initial) stoploss is hit. This is a slightly lower percentage than previous months (30% and 32%), so this seems to have improved slightly
- Out of the 11 stoplosses, in 3 instances the stoploss was set too tight. By giving it more room, the trades would have been profitable
- However...looking at the 3 trades individually, 2 of these trades should not have taken at all since I was trading right after news (these are the entries that I should not take anymore from now on, see goal for April). The remaining trade with a too tight stoploss would have ended in atleast a 10 point profit on the 1st contract
- I will stick with the max risk of 4 points per contract for next month and evaluate then if it's necessary to increase it

Profit targets
- In 29% (/12 trades) of all trades, the initial profit target is hit. This is signifiant increase compared to February 18% and January 7% which Im proud of
- Frankly, it did not cost me much "emotional effort" to let price creep towards my profit target and sit through the pullbacks once I was convinced that this was the right thing to do

Closed manually with profit
- In 20% (/8 trades) of all trades, I did not let the trade hit the stoploss of profit target. In february this was 30%. This improvement is ofcourse related to letting price hit the profit target
- What's even better is that in the cases that I did close the trade manually, this was almost every time the right thing to do (88%). Only in 1 instance I should not have done that

Closed manually with loss
- In 17% (/7 trades) of all trade, I closed a trade manually with a loss. Also, this was the right thing to do in 86% and the wrong thing to do in 1 instance (14%)

While the above stats looks very nice, I had a hard time with the adds.
On 6 occasions, I added a contract at what I thought was a good price level. One add was breakeven, all other adds were losing trades costing me a total of 11 points.
I am adding when the trade is atleast 3-4 points in profit because I don't want to my total risk to be more than 4 points. March had many range days. What I learned this month is that I should not add on range days (which I did) and choose better price levels for adding.

I know that this method of adding (when 1st contract is 3-4 points in profit) is not the best thing to do. @Inletcap advocates scaling in once the first entry/unit shows signs to be succesful. I believe he's right in this (ofcourse he is) because I can relate with the logic behind it: if the trade hypothysis is not ok, only the 1st contract (/unit) will hit the stoploss. In case that the trade hypothysis turns out to be right, a larger position has been build that profits from the price change immediatly. The 1st contract (/unit) can be closed at profit target, the 2nd contract (/unit) can be used for a runner if it is a trend day.
The problem for me at this moment, is that this involves taking a larger risk (8 points for 2 contracts) which I don't want to take. I'm trading a 10k account and don't want to risk more than 2% (equals 4 points) per contract. One can debate about this, but in all my trading sofar I have religously stuck to this rule and it has prevented me from blowing an account.
Bottomline: I need to increase my account before I can experiment with this.

In March, I also payed a lot of attention to context. The trading preperation and keeping the context log up-to-date has helped me to focus on where price is in relation to context.
I will continue with the market prep and context log.

I was in doubt if I should signup for the Journal Contest or not: participating in the contest might withdraw my focus from trading. I decided to signup anyway to receive feedback on how valuable my journal is for other traders. I know it is very valuable to me because my trading would not have evolved as it has. But how valuable is it for others, do other traders learn from my documented journey? The contest seems a nice way of receiving feedback on my journal itself.

My goals for April are:
1. Improve my results on range days
The majority of the losses in March happened on range days. I was trading these days the same as trend days. Allthough, I realized this and improved on it in the second half of March I need to improve. In April I will keep stats on this.

2. Improve my adds

3. Improve my entries by eliminating stupid and emotion based entries


Last edited by GruttePier; April 4th, 2016 at 12:40 PM.
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Old April 4th, 2016, 10:50 AM   #259 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 4th prep

Market overview
- Japan, slightly down
- China, down 1.3%
- Europe, up 0.5%
- Oil, neutral
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, neutral
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly negative.
No major news expected today

Important price levels
- 2086.00 Last swing high before the ATH
- 2071.50. This year high (set overnight)
- 2057.00 VPOC since ATH

Price made a higher high overnight.

Not sure what to expect today and I am neutral regarding it'll be a up or down day. Volumes are low and markets are neutral to slightly negative today. I guess market will be ranging today and testing the 2071 and 2057 price levels. A break through these levels might result in a new trend of prices going towards 2086 or 2048/2035.

I will remain cautious and don't take any trades when in doubt.

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Old April 4th, 2016, 04:07 PM   #260 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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April 4th


Context log
- Price made an new high overnight and upon opening made a double bottom with overnight low
- A lower high in the middle of the opening range, followed by a triple bottom. Looking at T&S, buyers seem to step in now, but TICK remains below 0.
- Price is retracing to VWAP making a small new high. iVIX made a new high, TICK remains negative though. Market feels strong, looking at T&S. Took a long (trade #1), anticipating a breakout to the upper side after the triple bottom
- Price seems to find support at OR high, but broke through and made a higher low at -1SD. Price is retracing to VWAP and TICK is printing above 500 for the first time today. Despite the small trading range of 5.5 points in the first trading hour, there is a lot of action in T&S which does not correspond with a boring range day. Hopefully we'll get a breakout, preferably to the upper side
- Price seems to be making a lower high around yesterday close. This is not what I expected and against my trade idea. iVIX and TICK are not making any sense either. I will remain in the trade though and let the market prove that I'm wrong. Afterall, price has not made a lower low (yet). In fact, it seems to be making a double bottom at -1SD / OR low. Stopped out
- Price broke through the triple bottom and is slowly grinding down, making a lower low at the 2057 level I predicted. I can take a long, but since TICK is below 0 for almost the entire day and all markets are negative, I don't think price will move up much. I'll focus on getting short during a pullback towards triple bottom / IB low / -1SD. Limit order hit, took a short from IB low (trade #2)
- Price made a higher low and then broke through my entry level. Increased stop to my max risk (4 points) to give price more room and allow a pullback to VWAP. iVIX is rising while price remains flat (divergence). Price pulls back to the lower trendline / IB low level, internals are flat
- Price breaks through the trendline, making a lower low just above my profit target, then pulls back to VAL making a lower high. It's tempting to take (small) profit since the final hour is starting and price is likely to reverse. Looking at price action however, price just made a lower high and could very well be in the process of making a lower low. I move the stop just above the lower high and remain in the trade. I can take a small profit now or wait and remain in the race for a potentially larger profit. I decided on the latter
- Stop hit -> small profit

Trade 1: -4 points
- Triple bottom, followed by a new high and break through the OR high and yesterday's close
- iVIX confirmed with a new high. TICK is not cooperating though, by staying below 0
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 2070 (2SD and just below overnight high)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Entry is good, the trade just didn't work out. The first real sign of the trade not working was the lower high, I could have closed the trade then

Trade 2: +1.5 points
- Pullback to triple bottom / -1SD / IB low / VAL
- Internals look negative with TICK printing below 0 most of the time and iVIX making lower highs
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 2054 (just above yesterday's VWAP)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: My profit target was too far way, should have set it at the PP and not at yesterday's VWAP

Funny that my hypothysis for today (posted during my prep) worked out by the tick, but I didn't trade it.

Seems like I'm able to trade tomorrows afternoon-session only.

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