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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,710 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old March 17th, 2016, 11:45 AM   #241 (permalink)
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March 17th prep

Market overview
- Japan, slightly down
- China, up 1.2%
- Europe, down 1-1.7%
- Oil, up 2.2%
- Gold, up 3.0%
- Bonds, neutral
Overall sentiment is neutral.

Important price levels
- 2027. R1 + ADR high + overnight high
- 2021. New Year gap high
- 2005. New year gap low / VAH / ADL low / overnight low

I'm expecting a range day with prices testing the 2021 (New Year gap high) / 2027 (resistance level) after it has tested 2005 (New Year gap low) levels. If price manages to break through 2021, it might trend/grind up further

Since my bias is a range day until proven otherwise, I will take small profit targets and experiment with VWAP trades (enter at VWAP, profit target at SD)

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Old March 17th, 2016, 03:50 PM   #242 (permalink)
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March 17th

Context log
- Price made an overnight high, then dropped back to the New Year gap low (2005)
- It crept up towards yesterdays VAH
- Since the RTH open, price is chopping below the opening range and above the PP
- Took a short at the VWAP level below the OR low (trade #1) for a trade towards -1SD. Price is trapped in a triangle, I'm expecting a breakout in either direction soon. Closed it when price went obiously against me with high TICK prints and iVIX going up
- Price is now making a new high, which leads me to a positive (but ranging) bias. Will be looking for a long on a pullback to important price level as OR high at 2019 or VWAP / trendline at 2015
- This is a low volume day with price slowly grinding up. Exactly the type of day that I'm not good at. I will need to wait for opportunities and take small profits
- Price is grinding up and exceeding yesterday's high, indicating strength. iVIX is a straight line up. Will keep looking for a pullback
- Price mad a small pullback which I missed because I was looking for an entry on lower levels. Since large sellers are not involved when action increases around yesterday high, I decide to go long and not wait for a further pullback (trade #2). I know this is not a good price level, but I don't want to miss the move up towards the 2027 and potentially further
- TICK is making lower highs while price is making higher highs, iVIX is going down for the first time today and price action is increasing. I'm expecting a pullback, closed it at breakeven and will get back in at a better price
- Price is chopping around and then moving up higher. Should not have closed trade #2 and let have had the market prove that I was wrong
- Price broke out of the 2027 level, confirming my bias for a (slow) trendday. Entered long on a pullback to this price level (trade #3)
- Closed trade #3 a few points below R2 level, which seems to be about the highest price today

Trade 1: -2.5 points
- VWAP trade, just below the OR low
- TICK neutral, iVIX is up (not confirming the trade)
- Short 1 contract, risk 2 points, profit target -1SD

Trade 2: 0 points
- Entry around yesterday high / VAH, anticipating a move towards 2027
- TICK above 0 all day, iVIX is straight up
- Long 1 contract, risk 2 points, profit target @2026.50 (R1 / HOD / ADR high)
- Closed is on worsening interals, expecting a pullback with opportunities for a better entry
- Hindsight: Should have stayed in the trade and let the market prove I'm wrong

Trade 3: +8.75 points
- Pullback to significant price level
- Internals not supporting the move (yet)
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 2036 (just below R2)
- Hindsight: Only good trade today

Missing the move up from PP got me out of balance and not in sync with the market. It's frustrating to see price grinding up slowly without any decent pullbacks to enter. It makes me enter at bad entry levels (trade #2).
Trade #3 was a perfect example of a price level trade, which made me feel good again
This proves that I should not get myself crazy and take stupid entries. Just stick with the price levels.

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Last edited by GruttePier; March 17th, 2016 at 04:24 PM.
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Old March 17th, 2016, 05:24 PM   #243 (permalink)
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Trade 1: -2.5 points
- VWAP trade, just below the OR low
- TICK neutral, iVIX is up (not confirming the trade)
- Short 1 contract, risk 2 points, profit target -1SD



Great job! I saw trade # 1 and almost reversed my long- I thought about it until I decided that if my long was wrong I would stop out below LOD and hated the feeling for about 10 minutes!

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Old March 17th, 2016, 05:45 PM   #244 (permalink)
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Great job! I saw trade # 1 and almost reversed my long- I thought about it until I decided that if my long was wrong I would stop out below LOD and hated the feeling for about 10 minutes!

I've been jealous all day about your long at the pivot point
You have an amazing feel for the market, very very impressive.

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Old March 17th, 2016, 05:51 PM   #245 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
I'm not able to trade atleast until March 29th.
Busy at work and due to the daylight saving time I'm not able to trade the afternoon session either.

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Old March 28th, 2016, 03:52 PM   #246 (permalink)
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March 28

Good to be back to trading!
Job seems to allow a few morning sessions again and Europe is over to daylight saving time allowing me to trade afternoon sessions again.

Allthough I was not in the position to trade, it kept me thinking ofcourse.
Specifically on how to play range days. I'm doing well on trend days, but I get caught on range days. Trading price levels and specifically the extremes are more important on range days.

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.7%
- China, down 1.3%
- Europe, down 1.5 - 2%
- Oil, down 1.3%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, slightly up
Overall sentiment is slightly negative, volumes are low.

Important price levels
- 2033. Naked VPOC, weekly HVN
- 2021. January gap, important SR level

I'm expecting a range day with price moving between 2021 and 2033. There are just a few members in the Spoos thread, so it's likely going to be a low volume day

I will be cautious with entries (no trades when in doubt) and take small profit targets. My goal is to end a low volume range day like today with a small profit.

Context log
- Price made a higher high overnight
- Upon the opening of the RTH, price made a lower low (around R1), a lower high (touching OR low) and a lower low (-2SD, just above 2021 price level)
- Price is retracing to R1, making another lower high
- Took a short (trade #1), anticipating price making a new low around the 2021 / PP. Closed it at break even when price seemed to make a higher low
- Price seems to be reversing, a double top is broken
- Price is touching VWAP, took a long (trade #2), profit target hit
- Missed the entry for VWAP to 1SD by 1 tick
- Price made a new HOD, right at the week/month/ATH composite volume profile. Took a short (trade #3), profit target hit
- Price went further down, towards the RTH & ETH VWAP. I'm don't expect any more action today.


Trade 1: 0 points
- Pullback to R1 / VPOC
- Internals are mixed. Volume is increasing
- Short 1 contract, risk 2.5 points, profit target 2021
- Closed it at break even when price seemed not to be making a newer low
- Hindsight: Good decision to close position at breakeven

Trade 2: +3 points
- VWAP to 1SD trade
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1SD
- Profit target reached

Trade 3: +2.75 points
- Bounce of important price level (HVN on weekly, monthly and composite since ATH)
- TICK divergence
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above yesterday high / VAH
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: Since price bounced of the HOD, in line with bias, I should have chosen a larger profit target such as the VWAP

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Here is the HOD divergence of trade #3:
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Old March 29th, 2016, 11:29 AM   #247 (permalink)
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March 29th prep

Market overview
- Japan, neutral
- China, neutral
- Europe, neutral
- Oil, down 2.8%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, slightly up
Overall sentiment is neutral.

Yellen speaks at 11.30am (17.30 CET).

Important price levels
- 2028.00. Naked VPOC, yesterday close, PP
- 2017.50. Naked VPOC, HVN on weekly, just above S2
- 2007.00. HVN on the weekly and monthly

I'm expecting price to be ranging between 2017 - 2028. Yellen speaks at 11.30am. This might give the market some direction. If we break out to the lower side, I'm expecting price to find support at 2007 (HVN, ADR low). In case we break out to the upper side, I'm expecting price to find resistance at 2034 (R1, yesterday high, HVN

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Old March 29th, 2016, 03:59 PM   #248 (permalink)
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March 29th

My goal for today & April is to learn to trade range days like I expect today: Don't get myself into questionable trades and take small profits.

Context log
- Price traded within yesterday's range allnight, until making a small new low in the morning
- Market openened and made a new low, chopped around for half an hour and then made a high
- Price is ranging between OR high and the VAH, unable to find direction
- TICK is slightly positive and making more ticks above 0 than below, iVIX seems neutral. Taking a long at the VWAP (trade #1)
- Price is chopping around, then makes a double top at the HOD and pulls back. I'm eager to close the trade at breakeven, but decide not to do it and let the market prove I'm wrong. Price is still above OR high and not making a now low
- iVIX is rising and TICK is making higer highs+lows. Price is testing HOD again and finally breaks through. Profit target hit
- Did not have the balls to flip to short and trade in line with my bias while everything . iVIX is still up and TICK is still above 0. Will wait for a divergence to go short
- Market breaks out with 5 points in a couple of seconds making a new high. Good I was not short, dinner time.
- Back from dinner, market has changed from a boring range day into an actual trend day! Time to let go of my range day bias
- Price is making a new high and going through R2 & HVN on several timeframes. I'm not willing to chase price and enter at this high point. Will wait for a pullback to enter long, or might consider a short around R3/2016 high.

Trade 1: +3.25 points
- VWAP to 1SD trade
- TICK and IVIX seem slightly positive
- Long 1 contract, risk 2.5 points, profit target 2028 (1SD, PP, yesterday close)
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: The trade executed according to plan

After Yellen's speach, the day turned into a trend day. I would have caught a nice move up if IŽd kept the position open. However, that would have been against my bias and trade plan. There were no early signs too me that this day would change into a trend day. Trading multiple contracts would prevent this from happening by keeping 1 contract as a runner.

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Old March 29th, 2016, 05:07 PM   #249 (permalink)
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Nothing for nothing but a 3.25 pt trade in this environment is very reasonable. Seems a lot of people didn't know yelling was speaking- I had mentioned on the spoos thread (maybe Sclpers Journal) that I was buying up the lows in front of Yellin- figured she would say what what everybody needs to hear to keep us from falling off a cliff

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Old March 30th, 2016, 11:42 AM   #250 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 30th prep


Market overview
- Japan, down 1.3%
- China, up 2.2%
- Europe, up 1.6-2%
- Oil, up 3%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, down 0.4%
Overall sentiment is positive, driven by yesterday's positive Yellen news.

Positive oil inventories this morning.
No other news expected today.

Important price levels
- 2070.00 HVN since ATH
- 2065.50 SR level
- 2056.75 VPOC since ATH, opening gap high
- 2048.00 Yesterday high, opening gap low

Considerations:
- Range days often occur after trenddays
- Opening gap 48 - 56, statistically likely to get filled today
- HVN on the upper range of the opening gap, might be difficult to close the opening gap

I'm expecting a range day with prices oscillating between yesterday high (2048) and 2065. It's likely that the opening gap 48-56 will get filled. It wouldn't surprise me if price finds support around 2056 and moves back up further testing 2070 and further.

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