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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,713 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old March 8th, 2016, 03:35 PM   #231 (permalink)
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March 8th

Context log
- Price made a lower low overnight and then tested yesterday's VWAP twice and failed
- Today's opening range is just below yesterday's opening range
- (inv)TRIN is looking very negative (higher than 2.25), oil is down 2.5% and TICK is mostly making down ticks
- Right after opening, price made 3 lower highs and is now breaking out to the lower side, finding support at the naked VPOC area (1978.75). Nice area for a short is the upper trendline at yesterday low/OR low/VWAP. Rapid price spike with pullback very quick towards this area, missed the entry by 1 tick and did not want to chase it. I feel this was the trade of the day
- Price made a new low. Looking to enter on a pullback towards month VWAP / -1SD / VAL / trendline. Price pulled back slightly to IB low, then made a failed breakout at the LOD. Price pulled back to my entry level and Im short (trade #1). Stopped out. Seems like my bias is played almost by the tick :-(
- Market looks stronger, finding support at monthly vwap level, entered long (trade #2)
- Price is chopping, looking for direction. Pricer suddenly broke out to the IB high (finding tough resistance) with force, confirming the underlying strength in the market. My positive bias for now is confirmed
- Dinner. Put a stop at breakeven. Came back from dinner to see that that profit target has not been hit by 1 tick. Closed the trade around IB high. The high at 1992 was set on low tick readings and current price level is not "defended" (there is no action). Seems there is no conviction to move the market higher on this higher low. Feeling bad about not staying in the trade because it would have hit my profit target. On the other hand, I feel I had a good reason the exit the trade
- Price made a higher high (would have hit my profit target), higher low, then a double top and back at the OR high. TICK and (inv)VIX were both in divergence when price made this double top. Found it too risky to take a counter trend trade and did not see any other indications of price going down
- Calling it a day

Trade 1: -3 points
- Pullback to monthly VWAP / -1SD / VAL / upper trendline
- (inv)VIX and TICK looking weak, (inv)TRIN is creeping up though
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1976 (S2)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Nice setup, but unfortunatly it did not work (no guarantees in trading)

Trade 2: +3.25 points
- Break through important price level (yesterday low, OR low) anticipating further upward move
- TICK looking strong with +600 (avg), (inv)VIX making higher highs/low
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1992 (just below 2SD and yesterday VWAP)
- Profit target missed by 1 tick during dinner
- Closed it when TICK did not show any buying participation to move market higher
- Hindsight: (1) Entered the trade right at the VPOC on a day with a small value area range of 5 points risking to get chopped out. Not good entry location (2) Should have stayed in the trade, profit target would have been hit

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Old March 9th, 2016, 11:24 AM   #232 (permalink)
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March 9th prep

Market overview
- Japan, down 1%
- China, neutral
- Europe, up 0.5 - 1%
- Oil, up 2%
- Gold, down 1.5%
- Bonds, slightly down

Overall sentiment is slightly positive.
No news releases today.

Important price levels
- 2007 Resistance level + ADR high
- 1981 Montly VWAP
- 1978 Naked VPOC
- 1961 Support level

Overnight made a higher high. Looks like we are finding support at the month VWAP.

We're in a 4-day down trend, which is clearly shown on the 30 min.
Breakout above the 1993 will end this trend.

I'm expecting a day where we will test the lows at the 1981 (month VWAP) or 1978 (Naked VPOC, ETH LOD) and then going up testing the 1993 (breakout of the 30 min downtrend). Breaking this level, price might go further up towards 2007.

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Old March 9th, 2016, 12:43 PM   #233 (permalink)
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The oil news report caught me by surprise.
Which sites do you use for an overview of daily news and announcements (FOMC, oil, employment, etc)?

I was using The Wallstreet Journal until now: Stock Market Data & Financial Markets Summary - Wall Street Journal

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Old March 9th, 2016, 12:56 PM   #234 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
The oil news report caught me by surprise.
Which sites do you use for an overview of daily news and announcements (FOMC, oil, employment, etc)?

I was using The Wallstreet Journal until now: Stock Market Data & Financial Markets Summary - Wall Street Journal

2016 Economic Calendar

Oil news shoud not move ES that much.
There are talks that somebody important was speaking on TV same time.

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Old March 9th, 2016, 03:08 PM   #235 (permalink)
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March 9th - monkey day

Futures Edge on FIO
Monkey's context log
- Price made made a new overnight high, then dropping and making lower lows towards the ETH open
- Since RTH, price made a double top and lower lows. It's testing the ETH open / monthly VWAP currently. VIX and TRIN looking weak
- After the release of the oil report at 10.30am, price is nervous and then went down strong towards the monthly VWAP. Took a long there (trade #1), got stopped out missing the run towards the weekly VWAP
- Price made a double top. TICK and shortly after VIX divergence, took a short (trade #2) and got stopped out
- Then the monkey inside of me started trading (it's been a while since the monkey was loose)....
- Price looked strong when I got stopped out on trade #2, the monkey dediced to go long (trade #3) and got stopped out again. Then the monkey took a short in the middle chop (trade #4), profit target just above monthly VWAP got hit
- WTF, I don't know what happened today. It's been a long while since I traded like an idot. Not seeking for an excuse, but the crazy movements after the oil report somehow caught me. Like I got out of balance and the monkey woke up. I'm glad I limited the loss with the 6 point profit and will stop trading for today.

Trade 1: -3.5 points
- Pullback to monthly VWAP, expecting bias to work
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1986 (pivot point, OR low)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Stop too tight

Trade 2: - 3 points
- TICK divergence at double top / resistance of weekly VWAP
- VIX seems to follow, TRIN is flat
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1982 (just above month VWAP)
- Stopped out

Trade 3: -3.25 points
- Flip of previous trade, anticipating a breakout
- Stopped out

Trade 4: +6.25 points
- Entered short again
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1982 (just above month VWAP)
- Profit target hit

Im not able to trade tomorrow and have very little possibilities to trade the next 2 weeks. Im glad if I will be able to trade a couple of afternoon sessions only.

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Last edited by GruttePier; March 9th, 2016 at 03:41 PM.
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Old March 9th, 2016, 04:18 PM   #236 (permalink)
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It's not just you, my monkey keeps on jumping up and down sideways getting chopped up, chewed up even-though I noted in my morning log it's going to be choppy. I got stopped out trailing break even on my overnight after being 10 ES profits, maybe that's reason, monkey trying for revenge...

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Old March 10th, 2016, 04:07 PM   #237 (permalink)
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March 10th

I was able to trade the afternoon-session only and look at what I've missed today!
A perfect downtrend with lots of opportunities to add at each pullback. Look at how price has pulled back to significant price levels each time. Hope you guys all did well.

Context log
- Markets are negative
- Price is making lower lows and lower highs since the start of the trading session
- Started trading at 20.00 CET / 2 pm
- Price barely touched yesterday's low / lower trendline and is chopping for almost an hour. Took a short (trade #1). Added when price pullback from S2. Stopped out on both contracts when price made the first higher low of the day
- Price is breaking the last high, confirming the trend reversal. Took a long (trade #2). Looks like buyers are getting in control with strong support of the internals
- Price is moving higher than another previous high, also confirming the reversal. Profit target hit at VWAP
- Looking for re-entry at previous resistance level 1983. Price got there, took a long (trade #3). Closed it when price level was not holding
- It's 21.00h, time to spend my time on the wife

Trade 1: -4 points
- Pullback to yesterday's low + naked VPOC
- TICK divergence
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1968 (VAL, just above LOD)
- Added (contract #2), risk 4 points
- P&L: -4 + 0 = Stopped out on both contracts
- Hindsight: Nice setup, unfortunatly it just didn't work out

Trade 2: +7 points
- Break through important price level
- TICK + (inv)VIX divergence, both are making higher highers. (inv)TRIN is very strong
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 1985 (VWAP)
- Profit target hit

Trade 3: -1 point
- Pullback to previous resistance level
- Early trade, internal not confirming the entry
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just below IB low / ETH open
- Closed it when price level did not seem to hold, was not willing to take the risk of price going back down and ending a day like this with a loss

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Old March 11th, 2016, 10:48 AM   #238 (permalink)
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March 11th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.5%
- China, up 1%
- Europe, up 1.8 - 3.3%
- Oil, up 1.8%
- Gold, neutral
- Bonds, neutral
Overall sentiment is positive.
No news expected today.

Important price levels
- 2005. Start of gap towards 2020
- 1998.50 Last week high
- 1979. Week VWAP
- 1973. Month VWAP
Price made a higher highs overnight.

I'm expecting a positive day with price closing the gap 2005 - 2020. On the down side, I expect price to be staying above the week VWAP (1979) and high volume area of past couple of weeks.

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Old March 11th, 2016, 04:26 PM   #239 (permalink)
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March 11th

I switched to the June contracts today since these are traded with more volume than the March contracts.

Context log
- Price went up overnight towards a strong support level of yesterday high and R1. It's been nearly flat since, while the market sentiment in Europe is very positive
- Tight opening range of 4 points and price is chopping in a 3 point range for almost 30 minutes. Volumes are low. TICK and (inv)VIX are declining
- Price going through the HOD with low volume, bouncing of at exactly the lower side of the New Year gap. Price seems to find support at the previous resistance level (yesterday high / R1 / IB high). Looking for an entry but missed it. I don't trust the iTRIN which is trending downwards since the open
- Price moved up again making new highs. iTRIN is breaking the downtrend and supporting the upward trend now. Looking for an entry around the 2006 level. Took a long at 2006.50 (trade #1)
- Price is ranging and slowly grinding up. I'm not able to trade the afternoon and left the trade open with a profit target at 2011 and stop at breakeven

Trade 1: 0 points
- Bull flag, entry near trendline / new year's gap 2005.25
- TICK remains positive, TRIN is supporting the move up
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 2011 (+2SD at this moment)
- Out at breakeven

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Old March 15th, 2016, 04:43 PM   #240 (permalink)
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March 15th


I have very limited trading possibilities this and next week.
Today, I was able to trade the afternoon session only. Hopefull I'll be able to trade part of the morning session this Thursday.

Context log
- All markets are negative
- Price made lower lows overnight and is ranging throughout the day. After making the RTH high, price made a lower low by breaking through the VAH / yesterday low / IB high. My bias is that price is retracing to VPOC. TICK is making lower highs and lower lows past couple of swing points. Reason for a short (trade #1).
- Price went up instead, got stopped out

Trade 1: -2.75 points
- Break through important price level (S1 / yesterday low / VAH / IB high)
- TICK making lower highs and lower lows past couple of swingpoints, iVIX is down and iTRIN is above 1.2
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1997 (-1SD, IB low)
- Closed it when I did not see sellers stepping in.
- Hindsight: I find range days difficult to trade, seems like a new game. Volume is low, ranges are tight and the direction is not clear for me. I need to work on this and will do some backtesting on VWAP-to-SD trades for range days

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