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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,906 / 746
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old March 7th, 2016, 04:12 PM   #221 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 7th

Context log
- Following last weeks run up, price has made a lower low overnight to almost exact Friday's low and set a high at Friday's VWAP
- After the RTH open, price created a higher low indicating (a little) strenght. I'm wondering if price will succeed in making a higher high. TICK and (inv)VIX are making higher highs...
- It did. Pullback to VWAP first, then broke out of the higher high. Price is showing force indicating buyers in the market. It pulled back to VWAP and then broke though the overnight high/PP due to some large orders executed (1100 contract+)
- I will be looking to enter long on a pullback, profit target towards 2007.50. Took a long (trade #1)
- Price found support at earlier support/resistance level. If it fails to make a new high, I will exit. Price seems to have failed to make a new high at 2SD. If it goes below the low, then that's a confirmation of a "trend" change and I will exit my long.
- Price broke out (note that this pattern looked the same as earlier to day, I marked it on the chart)
- Price made a new high at the same level as Friday. On Friday, price then pulled back to 1997.25 before moving up again. Curious to see what happens. I regret not taking profit at 2003
- Price pulled back to 1998, TICK making lower lower (+600), decided not to add because it's too close to my entry level. Breakeven stop is at a good place, below the PP and below 1997 where price pullback to Friday
- Price makes (what it seems now) a new lower high, despite internals looking strong. Decide to take profit before my bias of price testing 1978 starts to play out
- Dinner + kids to bed
- Price did indeed went down (so I was right on spotting the failing buying power)
- Jumped on an opportunity when I returned from dinner (trade #2), profit target at OR high hit
- Price pulls back to previous support level, confluence with VPOC. Wanted to quit for today but I could not refuse this short (trade #3)
- Running into strong support at OR high. Moved stop to break even because did not want to spoil the day, stopped out at break even



Trade 1: +4.75 points
- Entered on pullback
- (inv)VIX, (inv)TRIN are supporting move up. OIL is up 3.5%. TICK is not following though
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 2006.50 (just below significant price level)
- Increased risk to 4 points by moving the stop below a recent SR level
- I'll not add, given the my bias that it is a low volatile range day
- Closed, P&L: +4.75 points
- Hindsight: Entry could have much been better by entering on a more important price level such as IB high/ETH/trendline. I was too eager to get in, exposing me to more risk than necessary

Trade 2: +6 points
- Breakthrough important price level (VWAP+ETH+IB high). Jumped on this when I returned from bringing kids to bed
- Internals are looking weak. TICK making lower lows, TRIN above 0.80 for the first time, (inv)VIX strong down
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target OR high / +1SD
- Porfit target hit, no sweat

Trade 3: 0 points
- My intent was to stop trading today, but this looked like an offer I could not refuse
- Pullback to previous support level / VPOC
- (inv)TRIN seems to support it, (inv)VIX has lower high
- T&S shows aggressive sellers coming in, price is not responding to buyers
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target yesterday's low
- Strong support at OR high, closed at break even
- Hindsight: Good decision, price aggressively pullback back to VWAP (at this moment 21.10 CET)

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Old March 7th, 2016, 04:25 PM   #222 (permalink)
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You are killing it sir, keep it up. Good trading.

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Old March 7th, 2016, 04:28 PM   #223 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
You are killing it sir, keep it up. Good trading.

Thanks!

(enjoying it while it lasts )

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Old March 7th, 2016, 04:52 PM   #224 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks!

(enjoying it while it lasts )

I have a secret
It will last. Its up to you to make it last.

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Old March 7th, 2016, 05:05 PM   #225 (permalink)
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lemons View Post
Its up to you to make it last.

Thats what Im afraid of, ha ha

Well see where this journey will bring me.
Ill keep on posting it for sure.

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Old March 7th, 2016, 05:07 PM   #226 (permalink)
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My workspace

I have received a couple of PM's lately regarding the indicators and pricelevels that I'm using.
So for benefit of all (and personal lazyness) I'm posting in my journal what I am using at this moment.

First of all, I'm trading with 2 screens. Screen 1 is NT (see below) and screen 2 is for the Spoos, watching the markets: Stock Market Data & Financial Markets Summary - Wall Street Journal and googling.

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On the trading screen (screen 1), I have a 10k volume chart of the ES with the following indicators:
- vvAggregatedTS6.0, showing the Time & Sales. The left one has a filter showing only 10+ contracts, the right one has a filter showing only 100+. I find T&S very helpful. It helps me for example in spotting lack of buyers/sellers at critical levels, spotting a breakthrough just before it has actually happens, etc. I should not be used alone, always in...yes...context . All credits on this great indicator go to the author Gomi. You can download this fantastic indicator in the Elite secton of FIO

- GomMP, showing the volume profiles of the RTH session. This is also a great indicator of Gomi and can be downloaded in the Elite section aswell

- anaCurrentDayVWAPV43, showing the ETH VWAP and SD bands. The author of this great indicator is @FatTails, it can also be downloaded from the Elite section

- Intial Balance. An indicator showing the high and low of the first RTH hour (orange lines), I wrote this one myself

- Opening range. An indicator plotting a box with the 5 minute opening range, also wrote it myself

- Various price levels being: Classic floor trader pivot points as S3/S2/S1/PP/R1/R2/R3, ETH open, ETH high, ETH low, yesterday high and yesterday low. Wrote it myself

- Average daily range, plotting the ADR high and low. Also wrote it myself

- VOL, showing the volume trader per bar so I know when a bar has ended. This is a standard NT indicator

I wrote some of the indicators myself because I like coding. I'm sure there are other similar and much better indicators available on this forum. If anyone is interested in using mine though, please pm me and then I will make them available in the download section (once I've replaced the hardcoded trading hours with session starts )

On the right side of the screen, I have a window with a 1 minute ES (closing price).
Below, the following internals are plotted:
- VIX. It is inversed by using the mirror bars indicator. You can download this from the ninjatrader support forum (google for "ninjascript mirror bars")
- TRIN. Also inversed with the mirror bars indicator
- TICK. Showing the high/low in gray and a 1 period simple moving average plotting the median in black

Other than these screen's, I'm looking at:
- A 1 minute P&F chart
- Overview of 1 day volume profiles. I use this for spotting congested areas, naked VPOC, etc
- A daily chart with the weekly and montly volume profiles
- A 30 minute chart for spotting RTH opening gaps and main trend

This is it, no rocket sience.
Let me know if you have any questions.


Last edited by GruttePier; March 7th, 2016 at 05:14 PM. Reason: grammar
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Old March 7th, 2016, 05:16 PM   #227 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
I have received a couple of PM's lately regarding the indicators and pricelevels that I'm using.
So for benefit of all (and personal lazyness) I'm posting in my journal what I am using at this moment.

First of all, I'm trading with 2 screens. Screen 1 is NT (see below) and screen 2 is for the Spoos, watching the markets: Stock Market Data & Financial Markets Summary - Wall Street Journal and googling.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


On the trading screen (screen 1), I have a 10k volume chart of the ES with the following indicators:
- vvAggregatedTS6.0, showing the Time & Sales. The left one has a filter showing only 10+ contracts, the right one has a filter showing only 100+. I find T&S very helpful. It helps me for example in spotting lack of buyers/sellers at critical levels, a breakthrough happening within 30 secs, etc. I should should be used alone, always in...yes...context . All credits on this great indicator go to the author Gomi. You can download this fantastic indicator in the Elite secton of FIO

- GomMP, showing the volume profiles of the RTH session. This is also a great indicator of Gomi and can be downloaded in the Elite section

- anaCurrentDayVWAPV43, showing the ETH VWAP and SD bands. The author of this great indicator is @FatTails, it can also be downloaded from the Elite section

- Intial Balance. An indicator showing the high and low of the first RTH hour (orange lines), I wrote this one myself

- Opening range. An indicator plotting a box with the 5 minute opening range, also wrote it myself

- Various price levels being: Classic floor trader pivot points as S3/S2/S1/PP/R1/R2/R3, ETH open, ETH high, ETH low, yesterday high and yesterday low

- Average daily range, plotting the ADR high and low. Also wrote it myself

- VOL, showing the volume trader per bar so I know when a bar has ended. This is a standard NT indicator

I wrote some of the indicator myself because I like coding. I'm sure there are other similar and much better indicators available on this forum. If anyone is interested in using mine though, please pm me and then I will make them available in the download section (once I've replaced the hardcoded trading hours with session starts )

On the right side of the screen, I have a window with a 1 minute ES (closing price).
Below, the following internals are plotted:
- VIX. It is inversed by using the mirror bars indicator. You can download this from the ninjatrader support forum (google for "ninjascript mirror bars")
- TRIN. Also inversed with the mirror bars indicator
- TICK. Showing the high/low in gray and a 1 period simple moving average plotting the median in black

This is it, no rocket sience.
Let me know if you have any questions.

I have a Q

About entries. It seems you are proactive trader.
How do you do it ?

I always wait for re-action. I wait market to prove that it wants to go up or down.
I have always stop order above or below market .

How do you buy in down move ?
How do you short on up move ?

How do you decide ?

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Old March 7th, 2016, 05:19 PM   #228 (permalink)
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Great job! Keep it up. I blew it today by of all things- not trading my thesis! Go figure...

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Old March 7th, 2016, 05:51 PM   #229 (permalink)
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lemons View Post
I have a Q

About entries. It seems you are proactive trader.
How do you do it ?

I always wait for re-action. I wait market to prove that it wants to go up or down.
I have always stop order above or below market .

How do you buy in down move ?
How do you short on up move ?

How do you decide ?

Let me start off that I'm still in the learning phase, results are looking good for the past 10 weeks only, I have not had my 10.000 hours of screentime, feel flattered by your question, etcetera...
That having said:

I used to be looking for confirmations also, but then 2 things happened around the same time:
(1) I watched one of FT71's webinars in which he explains price risk versus information risk. This made me realize that I was looking for as much confirmation (/information) as possible, in exchange for a good entry price. This is called price risk. Another way to trade is where you trade on specific price levels to get the best possible entry price, in exchange for being wrong more often because you don't wait for any confirmation. This is called informatioin risk. There is a good thread on this: https://futures.io/psychology-money-management/19185-ft71-s-price-risk-vs-information-risk-argument.html which included the link to FT71's webinar

(2) The feedback of @Inletcap to quit trading confirmation signals and start trading price levels. You can read about this in my journal

Since then:
(1) I'm looking for specific price levels to enter and exit. This looks very nice on charts in hindsight when it works
(2) The internals VIX, TICK and TRIN must be supporting my thesis to some extend. For example: TICK confirming my thesis by a divergence, but VIX and TRIN are not yet confirming my thesis. During the trade itself, I don't pay attention to the internals but focus on price action (for example: does it continue making higher highs)
(3) Last, but this should be number #1: the trade I'm about to take should fit in the market context. Even better, I should have thought about this trade during my day preperations already. This is what I'm concentrating on currently, learning more about the context. @bmtrading9 actually just started a thread on this in the elite section

The steps that I took to getting these results are: trading price levels -> including internals -> adding market context

This is where I'm now in my learning phase.
I know I'm still not there (will one ever be?), my next goal is to get more experienced in scaling in & out.

Does this make sense?

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Old March 8th, 2016, 11:25 AM   #230 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 8th prep


Market overview
- Japan, down 0.7%
- China, down 0.7%
- Europe, down 0.6%
- Oil, down 2%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, up
Overall sentiment is negative.
Oil report at 10.30am, no other news expected today.

Important price levels
- 2030. First level of resistance
- 2007.50 Last week high
- 1982. Monthly VWAP
- 1978. Naked VPOC
- 1968. Support/resistance level of past 2 weeks + S3

Overnight made lower low and tested (unsuccesfully) the VWAP twice
A lot of volume has been traded in the zone 1968 - 1980.

I'm expecting another low volume and tight range day where price is ranging between yesterday high and 1978/1980 (high volume area). If price breaks through the 1978 level, I'm expecting it to go through the high volume area testing the 1968 level.

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