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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,625 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old March 3rd, 2016, 04:41 PM   #211 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 3rd

Context log
- During ETH, price made a small higher high. It failed to make a higher high in the next swing and started to drop slowly.
- When RTH started, price was ranging (making small lower lows and lower highs)
- Price is above day+week VWAP and testing IB high / ETH and succeeded. Slowly grinding towards 1985
- Price is choppy, with overlapping bars. TRIN is responsive again and below 0.8 (indicating strong market). Was flat during all yesterdays session. Price looks strong with large orders in T&S. Crude changed from -0.5% to +1.6%.
- Price is failing to test the 1985 level (missed by 1 point), making lower high in price and TICK and then dropping with force. Price is below VWAP again.
- Price made a double bottom at LOD. Nice entry for a short is price making a new swing high. A lower high will confirm my bias. So far, it looks like my bias (testing 1985 and then new lows) is working out
- Short at ETH VWAP / VAH, oil is almost flat by now. Feels like I've pick a good entry location that I've been waiting for half an hour
- Prive moved above my entry level, sellers stepped in and price moved back down. This confirms I got in at a good level and there is potential to the downside
- Price creeped up and I got stopped out
- Price made a new RTH high and is chopping around yesterday´s high. TICK is making lower highs and is diverging with price. Oil is weak. Since it´s a range day and price is at the level that I anticipated, I´m taking a short (despite the new RTH high). Stopped out at the tick
- Price retraced to 1SD, then made a 1 tick (false) breakout at HOD. Again a clear tick divergence staring in my face and buyers do not seem to step in at this level. Decided to give it one more try, taking a short
- Two tick divergences in a row, then a strong VIX divergence. All at HOD, seems to be a lack of sellers. Closing the trade


Trade 1: -3 points
- Pullback to ETH VWAP / VAH and upper trendline, anticipating a swing high at this point
- Internals are flat because of ranging price, not trust worthy
- Oil is cooperating: almost neutral, after being up 1.6%
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target @1971 (just above S1)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Allthough in loss, I'm happy with the entry of this trade. I don't control price, but I do control entry and trade management. Both went fine, allthough i could have chosen to scratch it

Trade 2: -2.75 points
- Significant pricelevel hit, price failed to break above it
- TICK and (inv)VIX divergence, oil is weak
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 1980 (VWAP). Given it's a range day, I should be humble with the target and got inspired by @Inletcap taking small profits (this time)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Despite the TICK divergence, my bias and weak oil, the RTH high was a sign of strength. In stead of trading in doubt, I should not trade in doubt

Trade 3: -2.5 points
- TICK divergence at HOD, the second one
- Weak oil, seems little interest by buyers to step in at HOD. Also, there is little interest of sellers stepping in at this level. Strange...
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points (stop just above R1), profit target VWAP
- Closed it, there are clearly no sellers in this market. Price is slowly grinding up and making higher highs & lows
- Hindsight: Don't fight price making higher highs/lows

I have marked the entry locations on the chart that I was looking for during RTH.

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Old March 4th, 2016, 10:31 AM   #212 (permalink)
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March 4th prep

Market overview
- Japan, slightly up
- China, up 1%
- Europe, up 0.5%
- Oil, up 1%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, slightly down
Overall sentiment is slightly positive

Important price levels
- 2030. Next resistance level
- 2002. ETH high
- 1992. Yesterday high
- 1986. Today's pivot point

Overnight made higher high and is seems to have found support around today's PP and yesterday's VA.

It's a Friday and the volumes sofar are low. I'm expecting a range day with upwards potential like past 2 days. Price is likely to find support at yesterday's high or today's PP. And will be testing ETH high at 2002. I'm not clear on support/restistance levels to the upperside. Seems like 2030 is the nearest level of resistance.

I will be cautious with entries and take small profits.

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Old March 4th, 2016, 12:25 PM   #213 (permalink)
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March 4th


My first 20 points on 1 day!

Context log
- Yesterday was a low volume range day, with price slowly grinding upwards at the end of the session. There seemed to be a lack of sellers
- Price made a new high overnight, making a new low just above overnight low
- My bias: A low volume range day, with potential to make small breakout to the upper side like past 2 days
- RTH session start. Right after the open price goes down and makes a lower low right at the PP
- Overall sentiment (Europe, oil) is slightly negative by now, price going lower further making new low
- Price making a higher high, large buy and sell flying around in T&S. No lack of buyers, that's for sure. Took long (trade #1) at PP when TICK divergence was created at LOD. Profit traget hit
- Price pulls back, making a higher low. Took a re-entry of a long here (trade #2) with profit target at top of OR. Oil is raising and other markets are back to neutral. Profit target hit
- My initial bias seems to play out
- Price is finding support at OR high / IB high, othe rmarkets are all . Took a long here (trade #3), will remain cautious with profit targets. Profit target hit

Trade 1: +4.50 points
- Support at PP, anticipating an upmove (in line with bias)
- TICK divergence at LOD, (inv)VIX following
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points (stop below LOD), profit target at VWAP / OR low
- Profit target hit

Trade 2: + 8.75 points
- Re-entry at VPOC / SR level, anticipating an upmove through the OR
- TICK mostly positive this RTH, VIX making higher high
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 1SD / OR high
- TICK is strong, decided to move profit target to 2 SD / R1
- Profit target hit

Trade 3: +7 points
- Support at IB high, anticipating a further move up (in line with bias)
- (inv)VIX up, TRICK remains strong and is bouncing between 0 - +600, all markets are positive again, oil +1.7%
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above ETH HOD and just below R2
- Profit target hit

Hope you all are doing well today, have a nice weekend all (I will for sure).

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Old March 4th, 2016, 01:29 PM   #214 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
My first 20 points on 1 day!

Context log
- Yesterday was a low volume range day, with price slowly grinding upwards at the end of the session. There seemed to be a lack of sellers
- Price made a new high overnight, making a new low just above overnight low
- My bias: A low volume range day, with potential to make small breakout to the upper side like past 2 days
- RTH session start. Right after the open price goes down and makes a lower low right at the PP
- Overall sentiment (Europe, oil) is slightly negative by now, price going lower further making new low
- Price making a higher high, large buy and sell flying around in T&S. No lack of buyers, that's for sure. Took long (trade #1) at PP when TICK divergence was created at LOD. Profit traget hit
- Price pulls back, making a higher low. Took a re-entry of a long here (trade #2) with profit target at top of OR. Oil is raising and other markets are back to neutral. Profit target hit
- My initial bias seems to play out
- Price is finding support at OR high / IB high, othe rmarkets are all . Took a long here (trade #3), will remain cautious with profit targets. Profit target hit

Trade 1: +4.50 points
- Support at PP, anticipating an upmove (in line with bias)
- TICK divergence at LOD, (inv)VIX following
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points (stop below LOD), profit target at VWAP / OR low
- Profit target hit

Trade 2: + 8.75 points
- Re-entry at VPOC / SR level, anticipating an upmove through the OR
- TICK mostly positive this RTH, VIX making higher high
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 1SD / OR high
- TICK is strong, decided to move profit target to 2 SD / R1
- Profit target hit

Trade 3: +7 points
- Support at IB high, anticipating a further move up (in line with bias)
- (inv)VIX up, TRICK remains strong and is bouncing between 0 - +600, all markets are positive again, oil +1.7%
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target just above ETH HOD and just below R2
- Profit target hit

Hope you all are doing well today, have a nice weekend all (I will for sure).

I am more excited for having read this than I am for my profits today- Excellent work! Note the emotions you were feeling when things were just working and remember them. Humm- logging context? didn't bail- no talk of risk, followed plan
Love it!

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Old March 4th, 2016, 01:38 PM   #215 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
I am more excited for having read this than I am for my profits today- Excellent work! Note the emotions you were feeling when things were just working and remember them. Humm- logging context? didn't bail- no talk of risk, followed plan
Love it!

These results were completely unimaginable with the pattern method I followed before you started coaching me!
Seems like the context log is helping me sofar

You have a great weekend, i owe you.

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Old March 4th, 2016, 05:17 PM   #216 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
These results were completely unimaginable with the pattern method I followed before you started coaching me!
Seems like the context log is helping me sofar

You have a great weekend, i owe you.

Its very rewarding to see your progress... You owe me nothing- pay it forward on FIO!

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Old March 4th, 2016, 06:02 PM   #217 (permalink)
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Its very rewarding to see your progress... You owe me nothing- pay it forward on FIO!

Well the 'cap' certainly fits and I too would like to thank you for all of your great stuff on FIO. Weird fibber that I am, old dog might still learn new trick some day.

Travel Well
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Old March 5th, 2016, 08:56 PM   #218 (permalink)
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Great trading GruttePier . Just one question are your R1 R2 part of ana ... pivots indicators?

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Old March 6th, 2016, 05:30 AM   #219 (permalink)
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Great trading GruttePier . Just one question are your R1 R2 part of ana ... pivots indicators?

No, it's a simple indicator I wrote myself.
There are various pivot point calculations, I'm using the classic floor trader pivot points.

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Old March 7th, 2016, 11:02 AM   #220 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Posts: 615 since Dec 2013
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March 7th prep


Market overview
- Japan, down 0.5%
- China, neutral
- Europe, down 0.5 - 1%
- Oil, up 1.5%
- Gold, slightly down
- Bonds, slightly down
Overall sentiment is slightly negative.

Important price levels
- 2030. First level of resitance
- 2007.50. Last week high
- 1978. Monthly VWAP
Overnight made lower low.

No significant news expected today.

Markets are slightly negative, we've had a long run up coming from 1800.
It feels like we need to consolidate or pullback first, before making a further run up.
A lot of volume last week has been traded in the area 1965 - 1980.

I'm expecting a range day where price will be looking to test support on 1978 (month VPOC/VWAP) on the downside and 2007.50 (last week high) on the upper side.

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