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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,699 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old March 1st, 2016, 03:43 PM   #201 (permalink)
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March 1st

Trade 1: -3.5 points
- Pullback to OR high and 1SD after making a small new high of the day
- TICK is positive, making 600+ on the new HOD. TRIN however is looking negative (-1.8), VIX is not making sense (to me)
- Risky trade...
- Long 1 contact, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1955 (just below yesterday high)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: stop too tight, stopped out by 1 tick

Trade 2: +6.5 -1.5 - 2.5 = +2.5 points
- Re-entry of previous trade once price did
- TICK printing above 600, VIX supporting the move. TRIN and oil are not supportive at all. Will be taking small profits
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1955 (just below yesterday high)
- Added (contract 2), too early resulting in not a good entry price, profit target at 1960 (below prev week high)
- Profit target 1st contract hit, P&L: +6.5 points
- Added (contract 3), on pullback to IB high, no profit target
- Stopped out 2nd contract, P&L: -1.5 points
- Stopped out 3rd contract, P&L: -2.5 points
- Hindsight: I should not have added contract #3. The entry was too close to #2 (only 1 point away) so both contract were in loss when price pulled back. Don't want to exceed my max risk, got stopped out and then missed the anticipated run which I would have caught otherwise. Frustrating but important lesson learned

I'm frustrated because price is moving according to my bias, entry OK, add OK and then I fucked up with add #3. Not a good time for me to trade, taking a break.

Dinner.

No opportunities in the afternoon session. Don't want to chase price and believe a larger pullback into the area 1960 - 1950 is needed first.

I felt frustrated today because I did not trade my bias well. I feel that I'm closer to my first 20+ pointer than ever: Bias was correct, entry (second one) was correct, profit target hit and the first add was good. I know what to do and how to get it. Guess this is what caused the frustration today.
More opportunities will follow, will get it some other time. I'm still learning

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Old March 1st, 2016, 04:25 PM   #202 (permalink)
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Sorry this happened.. I know that you are frustrated and I don't want to sound like I'm kicking you while you are down but I do want to share my opinion in the spirit of helping because I see the "mistakes" a little differently than you do and maybe this can help you in the future:

1) When you got stopped out to the tick- your trade was still very valid and should have been reentered much, much, sooner ( I don't believe in bar times or patterns but the close of your timeframe told you that you just nailed the max risk and need back in ASAP). Not saying your stop was too tight- this just happens to all of us (especially those using hard stops )

2) Adds #2 and #3 were way too close to the profit target forcing you to think about risk/reward. (Had you already filled that target, a rinse repeat would have been suitable IMO on the following dip that knocked you out- had your profit target been significantly higher, your adds would be good as continuation trades)

It should be clear that stops are getting in the way of trading the day in front of you- following the first 10-20 min RTH it was one sided trading- I believe you were focusing on not loosing/limiting losses and totally overlooked what was unfolding. As in your first stop out, after your second stop out your thesis was still correct based on your written analysis and trades could have been reentered on the following dip to VWAP or a sign of strength following. Keep your eye on context (not risk) and maximizing your day!

Get 'em next time!

BTW- I am in no way meaning to sound like I'm perfect and can always read what's unfolding- we all have our moments!!!


Last edited by Inletcap; March 1st, 2016 at 04:37 PM.
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Old March 1st, 2016, 05:05 PM   #203 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Sorry this happened.. I know that you are frustrated and I don't want to sound like I'm kicking you while you are down but I do want to share my opinion in the spirit of helping because I see the "mistakes" a little differently than you do and maybe this can help you in the future:

No issues, I'm over it now and I welcome feedback.


Inletcap View Post
1) When you got stopped out to the tick- your trade was still very valid and should have been reentered much, much, sooner ( I don't believe in bar times or patterns but the close of your timeframe told you that you just nailed the max risk and need back in ASAP). Not saying your stop was too tight- this just happens to all of us (especially those using hard stops )

After stopped out on the first trade, I was seeking for confirmation of my bias that price would indeed move higher. The confirmation was price breaking out, that led me to taking the entry.


Inletcap View Post
2) Adds #2 and #3 were way too close to the profit target forcing you to think about risk/reward. (Had you already filled that target, a rinse repeat would have been suitable IMO on the following dip that knocked you out- had your profit target been significantly higher, your adds would be good as continuation trades)

Yeah, I still need to get used to the concept of adding and am not comfortable with it yet. Like today, I learnt to not add close to another entry. This is what got me anxious and stopped out.

What do you mean with a rinse repeat? A pullback to a signficant price level (like 1SD in this case) shaking out the sellers?


Inletcap View Post
It should be clear that stops are getting in the way of trading the day in front of you- following the first 10-20 min RTH it was one sided trading- I believe you were focusing on not loosing/limiting losses and totally overlooked what was unfolding. As in your first stop out, after your second stop out your thesis was still correct based on your written analysis and trades could have been reentered on the following dip to VWAP or a sign of strength following. Keep your eye on context (not risk) and maximizing your day!

Sometimes I just seem to forget the details of my initial bias. Like I'm doing the prep as a one-time excersie instead of it being the basis for all trades. Need to work on this.


Inletcap View Post
Get 'em next time!

You can count on that!

I appreciate your feedback on the individual trades today and earlier (not expecting you to do that everytime)!


Last edited by GruttePier; March 1st, 2016 at 05:06 PM. Reason: Typos
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Old March 1st, 2016, 05:58 PM   #204 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
What do you mean with a rinse repeat? A pullback to a signficant price level (like 1SD in this case) shaking out the sellers?

When you hit 1 target and expect price to go higher, adding on a decent pullback (I use +/- 1 SD often or 5 pts or swing hi/lo off intraday chart) an then selling them at the prior target is a rinse repeat trade to me. Save that for later


GruttePier View Post
Sometimes I just seem to forget the details of my initial bias. Like I'm doing the prep as a one-time excersie instead of it being the basis for all trades. Need to work on this.

You do good morning prep. A long time ago, I said in a post here something like "Later (not now) when you are trading with a bias and context..."; What I meant in that post was to focus on the basics and then slowly begin to focus on bias once taking trades at price levels became second nature. Well, it seems you are trading price levels now without issue so maybe its time to focus on context all day and just bang your entries and exits as they become available! This is a big accomplishment and a move in the right direction and you just figured it out. Trading with context will make you much more comfortable and hopefully will eliminate your use of hard stops. To start with, keep it easy- always ask where price is relative to yesterdays hi/lo/close. Where is it relative to daily & weekly vwap/pivots? Does this look like a trend day, reversal day or a range day? Keep asking this all day. Maybe even write it in your journal every hour or say at 10:00, 11:30 and 2:30 to keep it top of mind. Once you know what kind of day structure is likely in play and you have a bias then you focus on how "stretched" the market is (ADR ~ significant price levels ~ etc.)

Context read example using today for anyone interested in context:
This morning at the cash open (after having bounced off a significant swing low overnight(context))we were trading above Y_Low and Y_Close(context). We were above the daily pivot and ETH VWAP in the area of Y_VWAP(context). Your overnight bias was long and you got the opportunity to place trades to buy two rejections of ETH VWAP (further context- rejections) and just above the daily pivot as price poked only 2-3 pts outside of the opening range and returned to the OR rapidly on both occasions(context). Had you missed the dip opp, a breakout of the OR_Top was there for the taking(further context), The ONH was tested with a dip back into the OR that stopped at about the halfway point and reversed (further context). From there the run was to +2SD (serious context) and never looked back (never even traded below +1SD(context))breaking each synthetic and price resistance level on the chart(context). After the Y_High small retracement the 10k volume bars got compact and closed symmetrically HH/HL for about 250,000 contracts(more context) in a row up to R2(OTF context) which was right around RTH ADR_H(getting extended context), paused and continued.

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Old March 2nd, 2016, 04:43 PM   #205 (permalink)
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March 3rd

Futures Edge on FIO
Started late today (17.30 CET) due to job obligations.

Market overview
- Japan, up 4%
- China, up 3%
- Europe, neutral
- Oil, up 0.5%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, down 0.5%

Important price levels
- 1984. Week high / ETH HOD
- 1961. Previous week high

Overall sentiment is neutral, seems like a range day with potential breakout to ETH HOD since price is making new RTH highs.

Context log
- Overnight made higher highs, then went to the LOD which is around yesterday's VPOC. Price has been ranging since
- Price made a new RTH high and found resistance at yesterday's high / yesterday's VAH
- Price is making a pullback, possibly finding support at SR level / VAH @1975. If it doesn't hold, the next level is 1973 (VWAP / IB high)
- Price does find support, but is unable to make a new RTH high
- Volatility is increasing, probably due to the oil report. Will not take any trades now since price is acting weird
- Price is finding support at VAL.Seems like its going to be a range day indeed
- Price is testing yesterday's high again, but failed. Pulled back to IB high / VWAP. Price seems to find support, making higher low. Tempting to go long, but TICK is making lower highs/lows
- Price tested the low of the lower trendline, took a long here (trade #1)
- TICK was below +600 at all previous attempts to break through yesterday's high. If TICK will be higher this time, I will hold it for a run towards 1984
- TICK was not printing +600, but the T&S showed that a breakout would happen. Tempting to take profit at 2SD, but I need to think big. Will hold
- Price seems not to break through 2SD, lost confidence and closed the trade

Trade 1: +1 point
- Pullback to trendline, making 2nd higher low. Feels like a good entry level for a long
- TICK is making higher highs/lows, oil is neutral
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target yesterday high
- Realized suddenly that yesterday high is a great place to add and price was showing strenght. Because I did not want to miss the move, I added at a not so good price level
- Took profit on contract #1, P&L: +3.5 points
- Lost confidence in the trade. Closed contract #2 when large sell orders appeared in T&S. P&L: -2.5 points
- Hindsight: (1) Was sitting front row for a run towards 1984, which did not happen unfortunatly. (2) Like yesterday, I added too early and had to exit with contract #1 at a (hindsight) bad level (3) Should not have closed contract #2 at lower trendline. Somehow did not see this

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Old March 2nd, 2016, 05:44 PM   #206 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Started late today (17.30 CET) due to job obligations.


Overall sentiment is neutral, seems like a range day with potential breakout to ETH HOD since price is making new RTH highs.

Context log
- Overnight made higher highs, then went to the LOD which is around yesterday's VPOC. Price has been ranging since
- Price made a new RTH high and found resistance at yesterday's high / yesterday's VAH
- Price is making a pullback, possibly finding support at SR level / VAH @1975. If it doesn't hold, the next level is 1973 (VWAP / IB high)
- Price does find support, but is unable to make a new RTH high
- Volatility is increasing, probably due to the oil report. Will not take any trades now since price is acting weird
- Price is finding support at VAL.Seems like its going to be a range day indeed
- Price is testing yesterday's high again, but failed. Pulled back to IB high / VWAP. Price seems to find support, making higher low. Tempting to go long, but TICK is making lower highs/lows
- Price tested the low of the lower trendline, took a long here (trade #1)
- TICK was below +600 at all previous attempts to break through yesterday's high. If TICK will be higher this time, I will hold it for a run towards 1984
- TICK was not printing +600, but the T&S showed that a breakout would happen. Tempting to take profit at 2SD, but I need to think big. Will hold
- Price seems not to break through 2SD, lost confidence and closed the trade

Trade 1: +1 point
- Pullback to trendline, making 2nd higher low. Feels like a good entry level for a long
- TICK is making higher highs/lows, oil is neutral
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target yesterday high
- Realized suddenly that yesterday high is a great place to add and price was showing strenght. Because I did not want to miss the move, I added at a not so good price level
- Took profit on contract #1, P&L: +3.5 points
- Lost confidence in the trade. Closed contract #2 when large sell orders appeared in T&S. P&L: -2.5 points
- Hindsight: (1) Was sitting front row for a run towards 1984, which did not happen unfortunatly. (2) Like yesterday, I added too early and had to exit with contract #1 at a (hindsight) bad level (3) Should not have closed contract #2 at lower trendline. Somehow did not see this

Great context log!! Do it a few times before giving up on it as today was a tough day to hold on as a reversal was highly likely given the past several times it happened and choppy PA.

(just in case you read this later for review or trade logging- your Hindsight(1) says 84 never happened - you nailed the number with 3 ticks extra to ensure a fill )

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Old March 3rd, 2016, 03:42 AM   #207 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Great context log!! Do it a few times before giving up on it as today was a tough day to hold on as a reversal was highly likely given the past several times it happened and choppy PA.

(just in case you read this later for review or trade logging- your Hindsight(1) says 84 never happened - you nailed the number with 3 ticks extra to ensure a fill )

Not sure it the context log is of help for others, but it did help me in keep the focus on context.
I'll continue with it as long as it's necessary.

I was afraid of it already....when I closed the trade I saw price creeping up towards 82 first and then towards 84.
Nothing wrong with the bias, it's the execution.


Last edited by GruttePier; March 3rd, 2016 at 07:31 AM.
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Old March 3rd, 2016, 10:27 AM   #208 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Not sure it the context log is of help for others, but it did help me in keep the focus on context.
I'll continue with it as long as it's necessary.

I was afraid of it already....when I closed the trade I saw price creeping up towards 82 first and then towards 84.
Nothing wrong with the bias, it's the execution.

Just curious (execution aside), did you find that paying attention to context helped keep your mind off of risk and focused on the prize? I know it was the first day, just wondered if it felt different...

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Old March 3rd, 2016, 11:05 AM   #209 (permalink)
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Just curious (execution aside), did you find that paying attention to context helped keep your mind off of risk and focused on the prize? I know it was the first day, just wondered if it felt different...

The entry on the first long felt like a good deal given my bias and location in the context.
Indeed, it was the first day and not sure if it was related to the context low.

I'll keep track of it :-)

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Old March 3rd, 2016, 11:39 AM   #210 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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March 3rd prep


Market overview
- Japan, up 1%
- China, slightly down
- Europe, slightly down
- Oil, down 0.5%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, slightly down
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly down.

Important price levels
- 1985. Yesterday high
- 1961 SR level
Price made a small higher high during ETH, then making a lower high

I'm expecting a range day with low volumes.
Price is likely to test 1985 (yesterday high) and finding support 1961 (SR level).

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