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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,982 / 747
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old February 24th, 2016, 03:56 PM   #191 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
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Nice and clean- well done. The way it should be. Most important was you took the trade and held your thesis even though the market worked against you a bit and got the reward! Never even had to sweat after two bars.... Love it!

What gets me through the pullbacks mentally are:
(1) knowing my stats: In 80% of all entries price goes my way and in approx 60% of all entries price is making at least a 5 point move.
(2) knowing my stats: In 10+ point moves, price makes 2.4 pullbacks on average. So in order to catch a runnen, I need to sit through a couple of pullbacks
(2) accepting the loss (3-4 points) before I put the trade on. I try to consider this as the cost of trading

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Old February 25th, 2016, 10:33 AM   #192 (permalink)
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Feb 25th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 1.5%
- China, down 1.5%
- Europe, up 2.5%
- Oil, down 0.5%
- Gold/silver, down 1-1.5%
- Bonds slightly up
Overall sentiment is slightly positive

Important price levels
- 1943 Upper range since January
- 1939 Naked VPOC since Feb 22nd, week VAH, month HVN
- 1920 Month VPOC, SR level of past couple of days
- 1916 Highs and lows of past couple of days (ref. 30 min RTH gap chart)
- Overnight made small higher high

I have small positive bias for today and expect price to test the 1943 level, maybe a small breakout. Price finding support at 1920 or 1915 level

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Old February 25th, 2016, 05:01 PM   #193 (permalink)
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Feb 25th


Trade 1: -4 points
- Important price level: previous swingpoint + OR low
- (inv)VIX and TICK making higher lows+highs. Oil is not co-operating (-2%)
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 1938 (just below important price level)
- Hindsight: stupid entry location, I guess I got too carried away with my positive bias

Trade 2: -1.5 points
- Pullback to trendline + RTH&ETH VWAP
- TICK making higher low, can be early divergence
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1938 (just below important price level)
- Closed when price broke below the trendline and TICK > -600
- Hindsigt: should have stayed in the trade. However, reason to take this trade was price respecting the trendline

Last and final attempt
Trade 3: +8,25 + 2 = 10,25 points
- Important price level: OR low, VAH
- TICK making higher higs & lows, (inv)VIX up, TRIN is neutral, oil 2->1.5%
- 1st contract long, risk 3 points, profit target 1838 (just below important price level)
- Did not find a good place to add, decided to stay in the trade and move profit target
- 2nd contract long, risk 3 points, no profit target. Profit target 1st at 1942.50
- 1st contract closed. P&L: +8.25 pts
- 2nd contract, aka runner, closed. P&L: +2 pts
- Hindsight: should have stayed in the trade longer because my mental profit target of 1948 got hit

I'm amazed that the bias I create during the prep more often than not plays out.

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Last edited by GruttePier; February 25th, 2016 at 05:08 PM.
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Old February 26th, 2016, 10:46 AM   #194 (permalink)
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Feb 26th prep

Market overview
- Japan, up 0.5%
- China, up 2.5%
- Europe, up 1.5 - 2%
- Oil, up 4.5%
- Gold/silver, down 1%
- Bonds, down 0.5%
Overall sentiment is positive.

Significant price levels
- 1970. Next significant SR level
- 1956. Opening GAP high
- 1943. Upper range since January
Overnight made higher high and higher low. The 1943 level has not been tested overnight.

I'm expecting a positive, low volume Friday with prices going to new highs and likely to test yesterday's high (1949) or perhaps 1943 before setting new highs.

I will be looking for taking longs on the significant price levels.

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Old February 26th, 2016, 12:32 PM   #195 (permalink)
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Feb 26th

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Trade 1: -3.5 points
- Pullback to RTH gap OR low
- TICK making lows and large sell order in T&S but price is not responding much. This made me enter the trade. Trade looking good, above 0.808, to support a positive day
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 1968 (just below HOD)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Going long too early. Need to wait for 1949 or 1943 test first

Trade 2: -4.75 points
- Price finding support at OR low and VWAP
- TICK making higher lows
- Long 1 contract, risk 4.5 points, profit target 1968 (just below HOD)
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Increased the risk to give the trade more room, not a good idea (as stats confirm)

Max daily loss reached, I'll stop trading for today.

I'm not in the position to trade Monday, see you on Tuesday.

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Old February 28th, 2016, 04:11 PM   #196 (permalink)
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February evaluation

February is my 2nd profitable month with the my new method.
My trading has improved on all aspects. The entries, stops, profit targets and earlier closes are all better. Since mid of February, I also started to scale in.

My goals for February were:
1. No more break-even trades
2. Make sure profit target gets hit more often
3. Close less trades manually
4. Let profit run
All 4 goals have been met (see below).

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Evaluation of February:
Entries
- Has improvement. In 70% (was 66%) of the entries, price goes my way
- Despite better stats, I made several entries at high-risk price levels aka stupid, sloppy, jumping-on-the-gun trades. I'll need to focus on better entry locations
- Other than that, I'll make no changes

Stops
- In 30% of the trades, price goes against me (within 5 points) and I get stopped out
- I'm not sure if this is much, but at this moment I'm comfortable with this
- Here it comes... In 15% of the cases (2 out of 13) that I got stopped out, the stoploss was too tight. Suppose I'd increased my stop with 3 points, both 2 trades would have ended in profit. On the other hand, my losses would be bigger (11 x 3 = 33 points). Depending on the volatility, I currently keep a 3-4 point stop loss. I know several respected traders advice to use a larger stoploss, but my stats over January and February show that my P&L would have been lower with a larger stop. So at this point of my trading, I will not increase the stops and stick to 3-4 points

Profit targets
- My goal was price to be hitting the profit targets more often, and it did. In 18% of all cases price hit my profit target and in 75% of these cases price did not go further than 5 points from my profit target. This means that I set my profit targets at a good price level
- I'm very happy with (1) price hitting my profit target in 1 out of 5 times and (2) that I pick correct profit target levels

Closed manually
- 53% of my trades get closed manually. This is still to much
- In the first half of February, for some reason I kept closing trades manually instead letting it hit the profit target. This has improvement in the second half of February, so I expect better stats in March

Adds
- In the 2nd week of Feb, I started to increase add without my total risk exposure exceeding 3-4 points
- I've done this 6 times in total, of which 5 winners and 1 loser
- Total extra profit is 9 points, which is way to less. I have risked 6 x 3.5 points = 21 points to bank these 9 points and in most cases price went further when I closed it
- I need to hold my winners longer

The total P&L in February was 26.75 points. The average winning trade 4.53 point, where it was 3.3 points in January.
While my trading has improved -something I'm very proud of-, the 2 losses on Friday show that the results are still not good enough. It's too thin ice and not sustainable. A couple of losing trades and the hard-earned profits vanish.

The only way to ensure consistent profitability is to increase the profit per winning trade by (1) stick with the profit targets and (2) Add and let it run. I know this is possible, because I see it every day happen in the Spoos. So for March, I will stick to my current my method and focus on letting my profits run. I will measure this by a higher "average points per winning trade" at the end of the month.

Several people gave me feedback for which I'm very grateful. There was a nice discussion (starting on page 16 of this journal) on profit targets and risk which was very helpful to me.

Happy trading!

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Last edited by GruttePier; February 28th, 2016 at 06:33 PM. Reason: typos
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Old February 28th, 2016, 06:50 PM   #197 (permalink)
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Really impressed with the way you have approached this, great stuff.

Travel Well
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Old March 1st, 2016, 12:25 PM   #198 (permalink)
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March 1st prep

Forgot to post it.

Market overview
- Japan, slightly up
- China, up 1.5%
- Europe, up 0.5 - 1.5%
- Oil, down 0.5%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, neutral

Important price levels
- 1961. Next SR level (previous week high)
- 1943. Upper range since January

- Overnight made lower low
- Overall sentiment is positive
- I expect price to test yesterday's high @1956. Depending on the volatility today it will either bounce off and become a range day or seek higher levels. On the downside, I expect support at ETH low

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Old March 1st, 2016, 01:06 PM   #199 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Forgot to post it.

Market overview
- Japan, slightly up
- China, up 1.5%
- Europe, up 0.5 - 1.5%
- Oil, down 0.5%
- Gold, up 0.5%
- Bonds, neutral

Important price levels
- 1961. Next SR level (previous week high)
- 1943. Upper range since January

- Overnight made lower low
- Overall sentiment is positive
- I expect price to test yesterday's high @1956. Depending on the volatility today it will either bounce off and become a range day or seek higher levels. On the downside, I expect support at ETH low

Can't wait to see how you did! Analysis was on- levels were respected for positioning. Let's see 'em?

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Old March 1st, 2016, 01:16 PM   #200 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Can't wait to see how you did! Analysis was on- levels were respected for positioning. Let's see 'em?

I'd rather not talk about it, feeling frustrated now.
Was sitting front row with 2 contracts long. Profit target #1 hit, then screwed up by a wrong entry of the 3rd add which stopped out both contracts. Then missed the anticipated move. Learned a good lesson about not adding at the same price levels.

Looking for a pullback entry now, maybe at 1961 (previous week high) and lower trendline.

You played it very nice, congrats!

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