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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

  #181 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
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Feb 22nd prep

Market overview
- Japan up 1%
- China up 1%
- Europe up 1.5-2%
- Oil up 7% (!)
- Gold/silver down 1-1.5%
- Bonds neutral

Important price levels
- 1969. SR level
- 1943. Upper range since January
- 1931. Naked VPOC (RTH) since Feb 1st
- 1923. Friday's high

- Overnight made higher highs
- Overall sentiment is positive
- I expect a trending day up where price is testing the strong resistance level at 1943. If this level breaks, further up towards 1969 is possible. Otherwise, I expect price to be ranging between 1930 and 1940
- Looking for an entry around 1935 (OR high / R2 / VWAP)

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  #182 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
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Feb 22nd

Trade 1: +3 points
- Pullback to OR high / VWAP / R2
- (inv)VIX and TRIN supporting, TICK is not making higher highs/lows yet
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1942 (just below range since Jan)
- Market is slow, price is likely not to break through the 1943 level. It seems like its going to be a range day and not a trend day
- Added when price made higher high, keeping total risk at 3 points. Profit target of 1st contract at 1942 (+1 SD) and keeping 2nd contract as a runner just in case we break through the 1943 level
- Stopped out (at the lowest point) on 1st contract, +0.5 points
- Profit target on 2nd contract, +2.5 points
- Hindsight wisdom: Breakouts (as on the 2nd contract) give bad entry prices when the market takes a turn. This reduced the profit on today's trade. Adding contract should be done in a volatile trend day, but not in a low volume range day with a significant resistance level in sight

Was in doubt to short the 1943 level or not. Did not want to scalp, low volumes and the internals were not confirming a move down yet.

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  #183 (permalink)
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Murrells Inlet SC
 
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GruttePier View Post
Trade 1: +3 points
- Pullback to OR high / VWAP / R2
- (inv)VIX and TRIN supporting, TICK is not making higher highs/lows yet
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1942 (just below range since Jan)
- Market is slow, price is likely not to break through the 1943 level. It seems like its going to be a range day and not a trend day
- Added when price made higher high, keeping total risk at 3 points. Profit target of 1st contract at 1942 (+1 SD) and keeping 2nd contract as a runner just in case we break through the 1943 level
- Stopped out (at the lowest point) on 1st contract, +0.5 points
- Profit target on 2nd contract, +2.5 points
- Hindsight wisdom: Breakouts (as on the 2nd contract) give bad entry prices when the market takes a turn. This reduced the profit on today's trade. Adding contract should be done in a volatile trend day, but not in a low volume range day with a significant resistance level in sight

Was in doubt to short the 1943 level or not. Did not want to scalp, low volumes and the internals were not confirming a move down yet.

Other than stopping yourself out of a good trade due to your stop rules you did a really good job on entry and exit- even the add on was good (P&F?) a high price that's ok as mkt could have extended and actually did somewhat. Given the very low volatility today that stop out should tell you the method( for stops) is not a winning strategy. Said it before- stops will kill your account value I like what you were thinking and the trade execution was great.

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  #184 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
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Posts: 921 since Dec 2013
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Feb 23rd prep

Market overview
- Japan, slightly down 0-0.5%
- China, slightly down 0-0.5%
- Europe, down 0.5%
- Oil, down 1%
- Gold/silver, up 0.5-1%
- Bonds, down 0.5%

Important price levels
- 1943. Upper range since January, yesterday's high
- 1937. Yesterday's VAL, SR level
- 1920. Naked VPOC since Feb 18th, HVN on Feb's profile

Overnight made lower lows, testing yesterday's VAL
Existing home sales at 10 am ET / 16.00h CET

Overall sentiment is slightly negative to neutral. I'm expecting a range day, with price ranging between 1920 and 1943. I will take trades off these levels into the direction of the VPOC

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  #185 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
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Inletcap View Post
Other than stopping yourself out of a good trade due to your stop rules you did a really good job on entry and exit- even the add on was good (P&F?) a high price that's ok as mkt could have extended and actually did somewhat. Given the very low volatility today that stop out should tell you the method( for stops) is not a winning strategy. Said it before- stops will kill your account value I like what you were thinking and the trade execution was great.

Yeah...yesterday's stop sucked. I know your (and other's) opinion on stops
I'm keeping a close eye on the stats of my current stop method and will evaluate it at the end of February. Based on the stats sofar, it's not my number 1 priority.

I did not add based on P&F.
Price moved higher than previous swing high with momentum, that made me add.

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  #186 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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@sixsmith07, here are the settings of TICK chart you asked for.

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  #187 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Feb 23rd

Trade 1: +6.5 points
- Pullback (small) to previous support overnight / PP. P&F showing showing resistance at this level
- TICK making lower low, (inv)TRIN going down. Oil down from 1 -> 2%
- Not a signficant price level, but dedided to trade it any way
- Short 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1921
- Profit target hit
- While in the trade, I did not see a good opportunity to add (other than just jumping in)

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  #188 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Trade 1: +6.5 points
- Pullback (small) to previous support overnight / PP. P&F showing showing resistance at this level
- TICK making lower low, (inv)TRIN going down. Oil down from 1 -> 2%
- Not a signficant price level, but dedided to trade it any way
- Short 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1921
- Profit target hit
- While in the trade, I did not see a good opportunity to add (other than just jumping in)


Nice and clean- well done. The way it should be. Most important was you took the trade and held your thesis even though the market worked against you a bit and got the reward! Never even had to sweat after two bars.... Love it!

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  #189 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: CL, ES, NQ
 
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Posts: 921 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,762 given, 3,382 received
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Feb 24th (afternoon session) prep

Market overview
- Japan -1%
- China -1%
- Europe -2 - 2.5%
- Oil slightly up
- Gold/silver 1.5% up
- Bonds slightly up
- S&P -0.5%

Important price levels
- 1943. Upper range since January
- 1920. High of day, SR level
- 1914. ETH open, yesterday low
- 1900. IB high, VWAP, OR high

Trading the afternoon session only.

- Overall sentiment is (20.00 CET) now positive and recovering from the day
- Nice entry is pullback to 1906/S1 (apparantly important, because it's a HVN), will be watching it

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  #190 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
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Posts: 921 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 1,762 given, 3,382 received
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Feb 24th


Trade 1: +4.75 points
- Entry on important price level, price did not seem to pullback further
- TICK making higher low, (inv)TRIN looking to support a move up, (inv)VIX up
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1919 (just below important price level)
- Price exploded just secs after entry, he he
- Profit target missed by 1 tick
- Price pulled back, did not add because I didn't trust the TICK making lower highs
- Profit target hit

Traded the afternoon session only.
Looks like I missed a nice day. Hope you all did well!

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