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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

  #151 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks, I feel really bad about my trading yesterday.
Good to hear from you I managed trade #2 well. When evaluating this trade, I was in doubt wether I did the right thing by giving the thing the opportunity to become a loser.

I've been delaying trading with multiple contracts, because I was thinking about getting a better 1 lot trader first. Anyway, will start tomorrow with trading 2 contracts.
The first contract has a profit target of around 5 points / when price gets exhausted.
The second contract will be added on either a pullback (I noticed you adding at the -1 SD/IB low during my trade #2) or around 3 points in profit on the first contract. This contract will be kept as a runner / bigger profit target.
Despite trading 2 contracts, the total risk exposure will not be doubled and will remain at around 3-4 points.
Let's see how this works out.

GruttePier, for what it's worth, the following is this traders way of looking at this messy business...

If a trader is truly picking quality entries, price should be getting to +1R well more than 50% of the time. If this is not happening, then the trader is no better at picking entries than flipping a coin and needs to work on reading the market better. If this is happening, then the trader has a winning strategy in hand by simply taking profit at 1R on their first contract, no questions asked. This is the place to start. They can then add contracts in order to catch the runners. If price is not getting to 1R more than 50% it is unlikely it is getting to other milestones like 2R or 3R enough to be profitable either. This is where your spreadsheet is so valuable in giving you clues as to the quality of your trading.

When trading multiple contracts, the trader should be able to isolate and evaluate the results of each contract as if it were its own trade. If each contract is not contributing positive results to the bottom line, what is the point if even putting it on? The first contract should be profitable by itself, the second contract should be more profitable, the third contract even more profitable, and so on. Therefore trade one contract as if it were the first contract in a multiple contract trade. If a trader cant be profitable with one contract, even just a little bit, they are unlikely to be profitable with multiple contracts.

You may have a winning strategy right now. It doesn't seem right that you should be taking losses after price has moved 1R or more.

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  #152 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Feb 9th

Trade 1: -3 points
- Pullback to significant price level (SR level, week HVN, today's VPOC)
- Internals alligned, all down
- What's concerning me, is the strong pullback to the VWAP
- Short 1 contract, 3 points risk, profit target 1835,25. Might add at 3 points in profit
- Stopped out

Trade 2: -3.5 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- TICK making higher lows, (inv)TRIN and (inv)VIX up
- Long 1 contract, 3.5 points risk, profit target at VPOC. Might add at 3 points in profit
- Stopped out on strong price move

Trade 3: -6 points
- Re-entry of previous trade
- Long 1 contract, 3 points risk, profit target just below ETH
- Added 1 contract at 2.5 points in profit, risk 3 points, profit target at 1855 (just under HOD)
- 1 contract stopped out, P&L: -0.5 points
- 1 contract stopped out, P&L: -5,75 points
- Pfffff....
- Hindsight: I should have kept the total risk at 3 points instead of 6 points

Max daily profit target reached, stopped trading for today
Difficult day to trade.

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  #153 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tap In View Post
GruttePier, for what it's worth, the following is this traders way of looking at this messy business...

If a trader is truly picking quality entries, price should be getting to +1R well more than 50% of the time. If this is not happening, then the trader is no better at picking entries than flipping a coin and needs to work on reading the market better.

Right...this is why I was holding back in trading multiple contracts, I want to be profitable on 1 contract first to prove my trading generates profit.


Tap In View Post
If this is happening, then the trader has a winning strategy in hand by simply taking profit at 1R on their first contract, no questions asked. This is the place to start. They can then add contracts in order to catch the runners. If price is not getting to 1R more than 50% it is unlikely it is getting to other milestones like 2R or 3R enough to be profitable either. This is where your spreadsheet is so valuable in giving you clues as to the quality of your trading.

When trading multiple contracts, the trader should be able to isolate and evaluate the results of each contract as if it were its own trade. If each contract is not contributing positive results to the bottom line, what is the point if even putting it on? The first contract should be profitable by itself, the second contract should be more profitable, the third contract even more profitable, and so on. Therefore trade one contract as if it were the first contract in a multiple contract trade. If a trader cant be profitable with one contract, even just a little bit, they are unlikely to be profitable with multiple contracts.

You may have a winning strategy right now. It doesn't seem right that you should be taking losses after price has moved 1R or more.

Thanks, I understand the point you're making.
Get profitable on 1 contract first and don't start trading multiple contracts before profitable on 1 contract.
This is what feels right for me at this moment. Allthough it is phsycological easier to hold the 2nd contract for a larger profit when the profit on the 1st contract has been banked, I feel I should show profitability with trading 1 contract first. The next step is then to trade more contracts.

I'll dive into my big, hairy excelsheet tonight, do some further analysis (including the shitty trades past 2 todays), give it a good night sleep and reconsider it tomorrow.

Thanks for your thoughts on this subject!

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  #154 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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GruttePier View Post
Right...this is why I was holding back in trading multiple contracts, I want to be profitable on 1 contract first to prove my trading generates profit.


Thanks, I understand the point you're making.
Get profitable on 1 contract first and don't start trading multiple contracts before profitable on 1 contract.
This is what feels right for me at this moment. Allthough it is phsycological easier to hold the 2nd contract for a larger profit when the profit on the 1st contract has been banked, I feel I should show profitability with trading 1 contract first. The next step is then to trade more contracts.

I'll dive into my big, hairy excelsheet tonight, do some further analysis (including the shitty trades past 2 todays), give it a good night sleep and reconsider it tomorrow.

Thanks for your thoughts on this subject!

I am exactly struggling with the same issue being one contract guy don't want to miss profits but when I see price moves far away then I cry inside, cursing myself why didn't I hold on that one contract but on contrary when profits evaporates then again cursing myself whey didn't I take profits...all this is because of small account but how do I turn this into a big account when I am limiting myself but now my feeling is that's fine just stick to the plan and be consistent first.

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  #155 (permalink)
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Interesting...

I opened up my big, hairy excelsheet with trade history and ran some analysis on my trades (including the shit trades of yesterday and today). What would my P&L have been if:

1. I would have traded 1 contract with a fixed profit target of 1R (risk is 3.5 points)?
2. I would have traded 2 contracts with profit targets of 1R and 2R?

3. I would have traded 1 contract with profit target of 1.5R (5 points profit target)?
4. I would have traded 2 contracts with profit targets of 1.5R and 3R?

The (shocking) results are:
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Not at all what I expected when I started on this analysis.

My current P&L (year to date) is 7 points.
If I'd traded above mechanical trade management systems my P&L would have been far worse!

So all-in-all, I'm not doing that bad with my discretionary trade management system

This small excercise made me feel better after past to crappy days.
I'm not going to change anything on my trade management until further notice.
I'll stick with 1 contract for the time being, improve my trading and keep on trading (and profit taking) discretionary.

My previous mechanical (Brooks based) system was not performing, my analysis shows that a mechanical profit taking mechanism based on my actual trading results is not performing either.

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  #156 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
I am exactly struggling with the same issue being one contract guy don't want to miss profits but when I see price moves far away then I cry inside, cursing myself why didn't I hold on that one contract but on contrary when profits evaporates then again cursing myself whey didn't I take profits...all this is because of small account but how do I turn this into a big account when I am limiting myself but now my feeling is that's fine just stick to the plan and be consistent first.

Hi bmtrading9,

I don't know what your trading results are, but I advice you to do the same trading excercise as I did and study the results.
This is how I did it in excel (for inspiration):

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  #157 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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My trading is good so far this year (knock on wood) I have purchased a software this year to maintain all the results but this excel looks awesome...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Edit: Looks I am going towards partial mechanical and you are coming back from mechanical system :-).


Last edited by bmtrading9; February 9th, 2016 at 03:55 PM.
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  #158 (permalink)
Elite Member
Murrells Inlet SC
 
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Tap In View Post
GruttePier, for what it's worth, the following is this traders way of looking at this messy business...

If a trader is truly picking quality entries, price should be getting to +1R well more than 50% of the time. If this is not happening, then the trader is no better at picking entries than flipping a coin and needs to work on reading the market better. If this is happening, then the trader has a winning strategy in hand by simply taking profit at 1R on their first contract, no questions asked. This is the place to start. They can then add contracts in order to catch the runners. If price is not getting to 1R more than 50% it is unlikely it is getting to other milestones like 2R or 3R enough to be profitable either. This is where your spreadsheet is so valuable in giving you clues as to the quality of your trading.

When trading multiple contracts, the trader should be able to isolate and evaluate the results of each contract as if it were its own trade. If each contract is not contributing positive results to the bottom line, what is the point if even putting it on? The first contract should be profitable by itself, the second contract should be more profitable, the third contract even more profitable, and so on. Therefore trade one contract as if it were the first contract in a multiple contract trade. If a trader cant be profitable with one contract, even just a little bit, they are unlikely to be profitable with multiple contracts.

You may have a winning strategy right now. It doesn't seem right that you should be taking losses after price has moved 1R or more.


GruttePier View Post
Right...this is why I was holding back in trading multiple contracts, I want to be profitable on 1 contract first to prove my trading generates profit.




Thanks, I understand the point you're making.
Get profitable on 1 contract first and don't start trading multiple contracts before profitable on 1 contract.
This is what feels right for me at this moment. Allthough it is phsycological easier to hold the 2nd contract for a larger profit when the profit on the 1st contract has been banked, I feel I should show profitability with trading 1 contract first. The next step is then to trade more contracts.

I'll dive into my big, hairy excelsheet tonight, do some further analysis (including the shitty trades past 2 todays), give it a good night sleep and reconsider it tomorrow.

Thanks for your thoughts on this subject!


bmtrading9 View Post
I am exactly struggling with the same issue being one contract guy don't want to miss profits but when I see price moves far away then I cry inside, cursing myself why didn't I hold on that one contract but on contrary when profits evaporates then again cursing myself whey didn't I take profits...all this is because of small account but how do I turn this into a big account when I am limiting myself but now my feeling is that's fine just stick to the plan and be consistent first.

Sorry to be blunt guys but here goes:

The way you are approaching risk management(stops) is forcing you to be damn near perfect on your 1 contract entries. Think about it- If you are trading properly and you enter your trade to get 10 or 20 pts but you are a little early, the second contract improves your basis... Even if your calculated risk reward is not perfect- you still stand a chance 50/50 chance of the trade working to its full potential, more than you expected or something less than you expected- that's 3 positive outcomes out of 4. How can one quantify their context and trading bias into ticks or points and reduce the "risk" of the trade accordingly- you cant! By saying "I am wrong on this trade because the market moved 3 pts" is Bullshit. By accepting that being wrong by 3 pts or 5pts or much worse even fewer points is what will hold you back. Measuring risk this way is wrong. That's the stuff book authors who can't trade a lick and broker dealers who get paid per transaction want you to believe because it appeals to your psychological "safety" and their pocket.

The market will tell you when you are wrong. The internals will disagree and price action will follow and you will know- selecting an arbitrary point value or swing hi/low is not the key to managing risk.

One last thing- your focus should be on making returns and managing risk-not vice versa. It's all in the state of mind.. -Walter D. Wintle


Last edited by Inletcap; February 9th, 2016 at 04:13 PM.
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  #159 (permalink)
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@GruttePier

First: Respect for showing these (unpleasant) results.

2ct concerning risk management with xR for small accounts:
The number of trades, the number of stop-outs and the minimal P&L per trade show a common principle.
At the moment, the average daily noise of the ES is about 11.75p. Virtually each of your trades is below
the noise level and even when looking at the exploitation of the noise ranges (much less the ADR which
is about 45p at the moment), both of your systems (mechanical + discretionary) perform worse than random
entries and/or exits.

This clearly hints to 1 contract being much too large for your intended risk level (and your account size
respectively which is normally the basis for determining R).

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  #160 (permalink)
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choke35 View Post
@GruttePier

First: Respect for showing these (unpleasant) results.

2ct concerning risk management with xR for small accounts:
The number of trades, the number of stop-outs and the minimal P&L per trade show a common principle.
At the moment, the average daily noise of the ES is about 11.75p. Virtually each of your trades is below
the noise level and even when looking at the exploitation of the noise ranges (much less the ADR which
is about 45p at the moment), both of your systems (mechanical + discretionary) perform worse than random
entries and/or exits.

This clearly hints to 1 contract being much too large for your intended risk level (and your account size
respectively which is normally the basis for determining R).

I totally see what you are saying here and agree and feel I may be giving bad advice if that is the case... Certainly cant trade on fear or your fear will be recognized! On the other hand, IMO, measuring where to take a profit based on how much risk one assumes is just plain wrong on so many levels as it forces one to cut themselves short, place numerous small trades and never learn to exploit opportunities and reap the rewards of catching a winner. Markets are dynamic and change while you have a trade on- saying "I hit my level" and bailing will never get one ahead unless they have something else on to reach for the stars.

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