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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:39,286 / 758
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old February 3rd, 2016, 11:29 AM   #141 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Feb 3rd prep

Market overview (16.30h)
- Asia down 2-3%
- Europe down 1%
- Oil up 1.5-2%, gold slightly up
- Bonds slightly higher

Important price levels for today:
- 1926.50 VAL since ATH
- 1914.50 HVN since ATH, overnight low, S1
- 1902.25 Proven SR level past 2 weeks
- 1887.75 Support level + S3
- 1864.50 Support level. Breaking it will more downward potential
- 1804.25 Long time low

- Overnight price was trading within yesterday's value area
- At opening of RTH, price dropped sharp to 18874
- Internals are all negative with TRIN flat

The overall sentiment is negative.
I'm expecting price to be around the level. If we break 1864.50, price might go down further

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Old February 3rd, 2016, 04:06 PM   #142 (permalink)
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Feb 3rd

Trade 1: -2.25 points
- Breakthrough S1 level and upper trendline
- TICK making new lows, TRIN going lower, VIX not yet confirming: risky trade
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1871 (just above IB low). Depending op PA 1865 (LOD + S2 + support)
- I decided to not take profit at 1871 and move the profit target from 1865. See if I can sit through the pullback
- Closed with loss. Price broke through S1 heavy, oil is up 5% and internals looking bad
- Hindsight: Good decision to close, but should have stuck to inital profit target

Trade 2: -2.75 points
- Failed making new high, RTH VAH
- Smal divergence between (inv) VICK and TICK+TRIN
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at VPOC
- Reversed position to long when I felt breakout coming. Internals reversing, oil + 5%
- Hindsight: Good decision
- I should trade with smaller profit targets in this market today

Trade 3: +3 points
- Breakout above previous high + RTH VAH
- Internals supporting this move
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1894 (just below ETH open and ADR low)
- Closed. Could not bare it longer, decided to take profit instead of risking to be stopped out and hitting max loss for today
- Hindsight: Good decision

Trade 4: +0.75 points
- Pullback to RTH VWAP, upper trendline
- (inv) TRIN and VIX not making new los, TRICK around 0
- Oil +6%
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1891.50 (just below swing point)
- Price almost touched profit target, closed on swift pullback
- Hindsight: Good decision

Taking a break. Starting to feel like overtrading and not having the patience for price pullbacks.

Trade 5: -2.25 points
- Pullback to S1 + RTH support/resistance level
- TICK making lower highs
- Oil is almost 6% up. However price does not seem to be lead by oil today.
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1872.25 (IB low)
- Price touched VAL (just above profit target), then pulled back. Dediced to stay in the trade since stats show this is my learning objective
- Closed when price went wrong way with force
- Hindsight: Good decision, would have been stopped out otherwise

Trade 6: +5.5 points
- Pullback to VPOC
- Internals neutral
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target PP (1904.50) just below OR low
- Stopped when price movement seems exhausted
- Hindsight: Good decision

Total: -1.75 points

Good: Closed trades manually before stops got hit, these were all good decisions and reduced losses. Happy that I was not eaten alive by the market today, just 1.75 points loss
Bad: Overtraded, missed the long at 1865.00 and should have stuck to my initial profit target on trade 1

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Last edited by GruttePier; February 3rd, 2016 at 04:06 PM. Reason: typo
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Old February 3rd, 2016, 04:24 PM   #143 (permalink)
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One more


Read about TICK divergence in the Spoos and took one small trade.

Trade 7: +0.75 points
- Pullback from HOD
- TICK and price divergence, (inv) TRIN shows strong down
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target PP at 1904.50
- Closed when PA slowed down
- Hindsight: should have stayed in the trade to hit the profit target (which is my learning objective by the way)

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Old February 4th, 2016, 10:55 AM   #144 (permalink)
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Feb 4th prep

Market overview (16.00h)
- China up 1-1.5%, Japan down 1%
- Europe down 0.5-1%
- Oil up 4%, gold up%
- Bonds mixed

- 1943.25 Monthly resistance level
- 1931.00 Naked VPOC
- 1906.00 Weekly VPOC
- 1901.50 Weekly VWAP
- 1864.50 Support level
- 1804.25 Long time low

- Overnight price made higher hig
- TRIN is up, I believe a good indication for prices going up further

The overall sentiment is neutral.
I don't expect much action (range day) as we're heading toward the employment figures tomorrow.
Possibly a breakout to the upperside, given the overnight high and higher oil price.


Last edited by GruttePier; February 4th, 2016 at 11:02 AM.
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Old February 4th, 2016, 03:43 PM   #145 (permalink)
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Feb 4th

Futures Edge on FIO

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Trade 1: +5.75 points
- Breakout of OR high
- (inv)TRIN is strong up, (inv) VIX broke out, TRICK made higher high
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1920
- Closed when internals worsened
- Hindsight: should have stayed longer in the trade, missing another 7 points

Trade 2: +4.25 points
- Pullback from HOD
- Divergence between (inv) VIX/price and TICK. TRIN also down
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target yesterday high
- Profit target hit
- Hindsight: should have standed longer in the trade, missing another 8 points


Good: picking high probablility trades only / no overtrading
Bad: Took profits too early, missed (in ideal situation) 7+ 8 = 15 points.

I find the exits the most difficult in trading.
Yesterday for example, I should have chosen smaller profit targets. Today, I should have chosen larger profit targets. In addition, my emotions kick in on banking a nice profit versus the risk of loosing the profit made.

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Old February 4th, 2016, 05:34 PM   #146 (permalink)
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Good: picking high probablility trades only / no overtrading
Bad: Took profits too early, missed (in ideal situation) 7+ 8 = 15 points.

I find the exits the most difficult in trading.
Yesterday for example, I should have chosen smaller profit targets. Today, I should have chosen larger profit targets. In addition, my emotions kick in on banking a nice profit versus the risk of loosing the profit made.


Picking entries and exits is easy- managing profits sucks!!! Especially when in 4 minutes you can go from +5 to -10. I believe that once you add a second or third contract you will find it easier- trading one lot is a win or loose proposition- no room for gray.

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Old February 8th, 2016, 03:49 PM   #147 (permalink)
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Feb 8th

Market overview (17.00h)
- China neutral, Japan up 1%
- Europe down 2-3%
- Oil down 2-3%, gold up 3.5%
- Bonds up

- 1943.25 Upper range since Jan
- 1931.00 Naked VPOC + R2
- 1864.50 Lower range since Jan + Friday's low
- 1840.75 Support/resistance level
- 1835.50 Naked VPOC + S2 + (2 SD)
- 1804.25 Long time low

- Overnight price drop, breaking the low of Friday
- TRIN is just below the 0.80 level, indicating a bounce up (personal interpretation)

The overall sentiment is negative.
Price might find support at the 1904 level, the S3 and low since October '14.

Trade 1: -1.75 points
- Pullback from significant price level (naked VPOC, S2 and 1 SD band from VWAP
- Internals: (inv)TRIN making higher lows, VIX seems to flatten out, TICK making higher lows
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target VPOC (small target)
- Closed it when price was heading from breakout of LOD
- Hindsight: Good decision, should not have taken this counter-trend trade at all


Trade 2: -2.75 points
- Breakthrough LOD + IB low
- TICK making lower low, (inv)VIX dropped sharp
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 1822.50, HVN on Jan 20th
- My learning objective (based on Jan stats) is to stay remain in the trade, especially during pullbacks. That's very difficult with price going back from 6 pts profit to -1 pts. Decided to stay in the trade, despite interals going all the way and keep the stop at -3 points (just above the S2)
- Closed when it was evident that price would go up further
- Hindsight: Good to followup on my learning objectives and surviving the pullback. Should have closed the trade though when I realized momentum was lacking for further breakout and a second pullback happened

Trade 3: -3.75 points
- TICK & VIX divergence at LOD
- TICK making higher lows, (inv)VIX is making lower lows. In addition, (inv)TRIN is making a higher high
- Buy stop at 1 point above the 1826 level (SR level + HVN since jan 20th)
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target just below the IB low

Stopped trading because my max daily loss has been reached.

How is it possible to end up with a loss on a day like this...
I started traded too late due to job obligations, missing the first 1.5 hours of the session and got in at the end of the drop. Then dinner, missing the pullback to the 1840 level which I would have shorted for sure.

Good: No chasing of price
Bad: 2 counter trend trades on a down day, stupid

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Old February 8th, 2016, 07:53 PM   #148 (permalink)
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Stopped trading because my max daily loss has been reached.

How is it possible to end up with a loss on a day like this...

CONTEXT

In all seriousness- you shouldn't have taken trade #1. You know that. Move on. Trade #2 was taken as a reversal which is great and managed properly IMO volatility is tough sometimes. There was an exhaustion at the low while in the trade but it could have just been continuation and ignored. You played it right by letting the market prove you wrong- you just didn't get paid for your proper actions- happens all the time- again- a major benefit of multiple contracts is you don't have to be right at every top and bottom. You missed the holy grail easy money short from 40 then you actually got long in a good place but failed to factor present volatility in your stop OR failed to realize you were just a bit early and could have reentered. My 2 cents FWIW. Don't beat yourself up- learn from it- of course hindsight is 20/20 for everything I just said


Last edited by Inletcap; February 8th, 2016 at 08:16 PM.
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Old February 9th, 2016, 03:41 AM   #149 (permalink)
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CONTEXT

In all seriousness- you shouldn't have taken trade #1. You know that. Move on. Trade #2 was taken as a reversal which is great and managed properly IMO volatility is tough sometimes. There was an exhaustion at the low while in the trade but it could have just been continuation and ignored. You played it right by letting the market prove you wrong- you just didn't get paid for your proper actions- happens all the time- again- a major benefit of multiple contracts is you don't have to be right at every top and bottom. You missed the holy grail easy money short from 40 then you actually got long in a good place but failed to factor present volatility in your stop OR failed to realize you were just a bit early and could have reentered. My 2 cents FWIW. Don't beat yourself up- learn from it- of course hindsight is 20/20 for everything I just said

Thanks, I feel really bad about my trading yesterday.
Good to hear from you I managed trade #2 well. When evaluating this trade, I was in doubt wether I did the right thing by giving the thing the opportunity to become a loser.

I've been delaying trading with multiple contracts, because I was thinking about getting a better 1 lot trader first. Anyway, will start tomorrow with trading 2 contracts.
The first contract has a profit target of around 5 points / when price gets exhausted.
The second contract will be added on either a pullback (I noticed you adding at the -1 SD/IB low during my trade #2) or around 3 points in profit on the first contract. This contract will be kept as a runner / bigger profit target.
Despite trading 2 contracts, the total risk exposure will not be doubled and will remain at around 3-4 points.
Let's see how this works out.

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Old February 9th, 2016, 12:08 PM   #150 (permalink)
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Feb 9th prep


Market overview (16.30 CET)
- China neutral, Japan down 5%
- Europe down 1%
- Oil slightly up 1%, gold slightly down -0.5%
- Bonds up

- 1943.25 Upper range since Jan
- 1931.00 Naked VPOC + R2
- 1864.50 Lower range since Jan + Friday's low
- 1840.75 Support/resistance level + VWAP
- 1826.00 OR low + LOD
- 1804.25 Long time low

- Overnight made higher high
- Japan strong down 5%
- Overall sentiment is negative, however gold/silver/europa are stable
- I expect a range day, and maybe an attempt to fill yesterday´s opening gap

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