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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,183 / 726
Last Reply:4 Hours Ago (08:15 AM) Attachments:289

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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old January 31st, 2016, 03:43 PM   #131 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I really like the way you are tracking your trading statistics. I think this provides a lot more visibility into the quality of your trading than the typical winner/loser, gain/loss numbers. It helps answer the question, "is price moving in my favor enough to be profitable." Good work!

A couple of questions:

what is the "5" in the "price went in anticipated direction, more than 5 points" column?

What is your typical stop? Or, in other words, how does 3pts, 5pts, 10pts of movement in your favor compare to your typical stop?

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Old January 31st, 2016, 04:11 PM   #132 (permalink)
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I really like the way you are tracking your trading statistics. I think this provides a lot more visibility into the quality of your trading than the typical winner/loser, gain/loss numbers. It helps answer the question, "is price moving in my favor enough to be profitable." Good work!

A couple of questions:

what is the "5" in the "price went in anticipated direction, more than 5 points" column?

What is your typical stop? Or, in other words, how does 3pts, 5pts, 10pts of movement in your favor compare to your typical stop?

The 5 is a typo, it should be a 1. Thanks for spotting this!
I have updated the post with the January stats.

Depending on the volatility (measured by ATR) and stop location, I use a stop between 3 points (minimum) and 4 points (maximum).


Last edited by GruttePier; January 31st, 2016 at 04:59 PM.
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Old January 31st, 2016, 04:20 PM   #133 (permalink)
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I wish I could somehow make your journal visible to everyone who is struugling or looking for direction. @Big Mike. You have done all the work, kept excellent records and have been open to changes. Hats off to you. No BS- it is very hard to just abandon practices we have grown used to but you did and you are seeing rewards and learning everyday. I like that you are not in a hurry to make a killing and seem more focused on process. You are on the right track and everything is just beginning to come together- watch over the next few months how trades become nothing more than place trade and manage profit or loss while keeping an eye on day structure, internals, etc for clues. Your first 20 will come but focus on maximizing what's available and rational in the meantime. Great job!

Thanks for your kind words.
I was actually hoping that eventually someone like you (being consistently profitable) would step in and give me feedback.
You've given -for me- game changing feedback a couple of times at exactly the right time in my learning curve. If you'd have given the same feedback a couple of months earlier, it would not have been the right time and might not have acted upon it.

Anyway, let's not cheer too early. I've done only 40 trades with the changes, 4 more losing trades and January would have been breakeven.

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Old February 1st, 2016, 10:58 AM   #134 (permalink)
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Feb 1st prep

Market overview (16.00h)
- Asia mixed (China lower, Japan higher)
- Europe down 1%
- Oil down 3-4%
- Bonds higher

Important price levels for today:
- 1943.25 Weekly resistance level. Breaking it will give room for more upside
- 1932.50 Friday's VAH/HIGH, overnight high
- 1926.50 VAL since ATH, Friday's support level
- 1914.50 HVN since ATH, overnight low, pivot point
- 1902.25 Proven SR level past 2 weeks
- 1883.50 Yesterday's VWAP, SR level, (near) pivot point
- 1804.25 Long time low

Small initial balance (7 points) and overlapping candles during pre-session indicating chop.
US opened at monthly VPOC.

The overall sentiment is slightly negative. No important news to be released today.

I'm expecting a balance day with price trading in the range 1933 (Friday's high) and 1902 (important support level).

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Old February 1st, 2016, 12:42 PM   #135 (permalink)
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Feb 1st

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Trade 1: -5 points
- Pullback to important price level
- Price and (inv) VIX making new lows. TICK not alligned
- Short 1 contract, risk 5 points (stop above VPOC), profit target 1905
- Stopped out
- Hindsight: Only trade when TICK is confirming the entry -> Internals above bias. No need to take this high of a risk when I'm expecting a range day

Trade 2: -2.25 points
- Pullback from important price level and 30 min trendline, anticipating top of range
- TICK exhausted
- Risky trade: counter trend, guys in spoo are all long
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1920 (just above VPOC)
- Moved stop to 1 pts above highs to stay in the trade in case of a false breakout and get stopped out by a break out
- Stopped out. Too bad, was a nice setup
- Hindsight: Should have taken profit at lower trendline @1921

Another loss will exceed the max daily loss limit.
Stop trading for today.

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Old February 2nd, 2016, 11:00 AM   #136 (permalink)
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Feb 2nd prep

Market overview (16.00h)
- Asia mixed
- Europe down 1.5 - 2%
- Oil down 4.5-5%, gold neutral
- Bonds slightly higher

Important price levels for today:
- 1940.00 Yesterday's high. Breaking it will give room for to upside
- 1926.50 VAL since ATH, VWAP, privot point
- 1914.50 HVN since ATH, overnight low, S1, OR high
- 1902.25 Proven SR level past 2 weeks
- 1887.75 Support level + S3
- 1864.50 Support level. Breaking it will more downward potential
- 1804.25 Long time low

- Overnight price was trading below yesterday's VPOC+VWAP
- Yesterday's low has been broken
- Small 5min opening range of 2 points
- Medium initial balance of 12 points, creating room for price
- Internals are all negative with TRIN near 2.0

The overall sentiment is negative.
I'm expecting a downday with price possibly testing 1914.50 (upside) but merely in direction of 1887.75 (downside).

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Old February 2nd, 2016, 03:59 PM   #137 (permalink)
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I don't mind losing. Trading is a probability game and losing is part of it.
What I do mind are unnessary losses like yesterday.
The risk on the first trade was too high. As the statistics confirm, 3-4 points stop is good enough. What I did on the first trade was finding a nice stop location, resulting in risking 5 points. Instead, I should have focussed on finding an better entry for the same risk, or not taken the trade at all.
Regarding the second trade, I don't know why I didn't see the failed breakout of the trendline. The trendline was there on my screen, but I just didn't see it. Only when I was out of the trade I realized the failed breakout was a sign to close the trade.
There, I hope it's out of my system now.

Trade 1: +10.25 points
- Pullback near OR
- Divergence between inv. VIX (higher highs) and TICK. TRIN is also low
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1902 (above S2)
- Closed it just below S2 because the market was very weak and internals kept looking good
- I had been waiting for this setup for more than 2 hours, it feels good to have caught the top and bottom. When trading 2 contracts, I would have probably kept one open

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Internals attached so you can see the divergence between (inv)VIX and TICK

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Old February 2nd, 2016, 04:47 PM   #138 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post

Trade 1: +10.25 points
- Pullback near OR
- Divergence between inv. VIX (higher highs) and TICK. TRIN is also low
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1902 (above S2)
- Closed it just below S2 because the market was very weak and internals kept looking good
- I had been waiting for this setup for more than 2 hours, it feels good to have caught the top and bottom. When trading 2 contracts, I would have probably kept one open

Internals attached so you can see the divergence between (inv)VIX and TICK

Still kicking myself for not talking this one- you even posted it in the spoos thread and I willfully passed on it, added to my long at -1SD and gave up a bunch as I watched LOD break. One more thing to add to the setup was it was a test of ETH VWAP- just doesn't get much better on a weak day overall- Nicely executed!

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Old February 2nd, 2016, 04:54 PM   #139 (permalink)
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Still kicking myself for not talking this one- you even posted it in the spoos thread and I willfully passed on it, added to my long at -1SD and gave up a bunch as I watched LOD break. One more thing to add to the setup was it was a test of ETH VWAP- just doesn't get much better on a weak day overall- Nicely executed!

Thanks
As I said in the spoos, I have a good mentor!

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Old February 2nd, 2016, 05:12 PM   #140 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks
As I said in the spoos, I have a good mentor!

I'm just so happy to see you doing things that are working- Everyday I look at your thread to see what you found and how you played it. I know the feeling you get when you nail a perfect trade and I thrive on it...
Great job!

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