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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:38,667 / 733
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old January 26th, 2016, 06:48 PM   #121 (permalink)
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Just catching up as I've been on vacation and noticed its been about a month since you made significant changes. Look back at your old Journal posts where all your trades were .75 ~ 1 pt gains and losses. You have come a long way!! Congrats. Keep at it.

I see you are incorporating things like initial balance- this is a great stepping stone for building context. Now that you are getting comfortable trading where you want to trade, really focus on context and forming a hypothesis about what type of day you believe is going to unfold (trend, reversal, range) so you can begin to trade the days structure.

I.E. - if context says something like "market wants to gravitate higher" (market is making HH/HL, Trading above the Opening range or Initial balance,Trading above daily pivot/Y_VWAP/ VPOC/Weekly VWAP, etc), recent volatility is high(ADR_14 reading > 25ish), current range shows a lot of room to move up(todays range is <50% of ADR_14 so far), internals(tick & Vix) supporting higher prices and risk on attitude(oil rising, bonds falling), been trading above VWAP and keep touching 2 Std Devs = trend day likely = These are examples of building context to determine day type expectations that would tell you to extend targets and let profits run until proven otherwise.

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Old January 27th, 2016, 11:02 AM   #122 (permalink)
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Jan 27th prep

Here it is...my 1st public market prep for today.

Market overview
- Asia closer higher (+2.5%)
- Europe is neutral. DAX slightly lower, FTSE slightly higher
- Bonds are up, +1.5%
- Oil is down, -1.2%

ES
- Trading choppy below yesterday's VAL, currently trading within
- Small opening range, tight 1st half hour initial balance (less than 10 points)

Sentiment seems to be neutral to slightly negative.

Significant price levels for today
- 1930.75 VAL since ATH
- 1914.50 HVN + naked VPOC
- 1902.25 Week high
- 1804.25 Low since 2014

I'm expecting a range day, within yesterday's value area.
The 1902 is an important price level. If we break it, price is likely to go further up (trending).

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Old January 27th, 2016, 03:09 PM   #123 (permalink)
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Jan 27th


Trade 1: -4 points
- Breakthrough yesterday's VPOC
- Internals are supporting a move up
- Long 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 1893.50 (VAH+HOD) or higher depending on PA
- Sloppy and stupid entry that was not necessary. I should have entered either higher (confirming the breakthrough, or on the pullback)

Trade 2: +7.75 points
- Pullback to VWAP
- Internals are supporting a move up, oil is slightly up
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1893.50 at test of the IB high/HOD
- Breakeven when 5 points in profit
- Closed just above HOD/IBH because I expected a range day, despite the internals looking good.... Anyway, I'm happy with the profit banked

FOMC at 20.00 CET, no trading for me.

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Old January 27th, 2016, 03:32 PM   #124 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Just catching up as I've been on vacation and noticed its been about a month since you made significant changes. Look back at your old Journal posts where all your trades were .75 ~ 1 pt gains and losses. You have come a long way!! Congrats. Keep at it.

Thanks! All credits go to you, man, for giving me the directions. I really, really appreciate it.
Will post my stats at the end of this month :-). It's just 1 month, and a volatile one, but the results are significanty better than before.


Inletcap View Post
I see you are incorporating things like initial balance- this is a great stepping stone for building context. Now that you are getting comfortable trading where you want to trade, really focus on context and forming a hypothesis about what type of day you believe is going to unfold (trend, reversal, range) so you can begin to trade the days structure.

I.E. - if context says something like "market wants to gravitate higher" (market is making HH/HL, Trading above the Opening range or Initial balance,Trading above daily pivot/Y_VWAP/ VPOC/Weekly VWAP, etc), recent volatility is high(ADR_14 reading > 25ish), current range shows a lot of room to move up(todays range is <50% of ADR_14 so far), internals(tick & Vix) supporting higher prices and risk on attitude(oil rising, bonds falling), been trading above VWAP and keep touching 2 Std Devs = trend day likely = These are examples of building context to determine day type expectations that would tell you to extend targets and let profits run until proven otherwise.

OK, clear.

I have a couple of questions regarding the above (yes, I did a search on this forum, but did not find any results). I know it's not about specific settings and it is a personal preference, but I prefer to look at the same as you guys in the spoo thread do.

- What timewindow do you use for the opening range? Is it 5, 10, ...30 mins?
- Is the weekly VWAP a rolling VWAP (over the past 5 days), or is it the VWAP starting on the Monday of each week?
- Same for the monthly VWAP (M_VWAP I assume?)
- ADR_14. Is that a 14 period moving average of the daily HOD and daily LOD? If so, do you use RTH or ATH?
- What period are you using for the 2 std devs? I assume you use the bolling bands for this
- Do you find balance points (50% of 1, 2 and 3-day high-low) useful?


Last edited by GruttePier; January 27th, 2016 at 03:45 PM.
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Old January 27th, 2016, 05:17 PM   #125 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Thanks! All credits go to you, man, for giving me the directions. I really, really appreciate it.
Will post my stats at the end of this month :-). It's just 1 month, and a volatile one, but the results are significanty better than before.


OK, clear.

I have a couple of questions regarding the above (yes, I did a search on this forum, but did not find any results). I know it's not about specific settings and it is a personal preference, but I prefer to look at the same as you guys in the spoo thread do.

- What timewindow do you use for the opening range? Is it 5, 10, ...30 mins?
- Is the weekly VWAP a rolling VWAP (over the past 5 days), or is it the VWAP starting on the Monday of each week?
- Same for the monthly VWAP (M_VWAP I assume?)
- ADR_14. Is that a 14 period moving average of the daily HOD and daily LOD? If so, do you use RTH or ATH?
- What period are you using for the 2 std devs? I assume you use the bolling bands for this
- Do you find balance points (50% of 1, 2 and 3-day high-low) useful?

I don't know how to break out the quotes so I'll answer in order

- 5 min is the generally accepted Opening Range (Initial Balance is typically first hour)

- Weekly VWAP resets weekly (does NOT roll)

-Same for monthly- correct

-ADR = Avg Daily Range so it is the average of the high - Low for xx periods. On the Spoo thread we all seem to calculate it different as most guys use Average True Range wich will include gaps if present. Most of us use both RTH and ETH (I personally use ETH in the morning and RTH once things get cooking) Keep in mind these are for context- not trading signals (RTH ADR_14 does seem to offer great targets mid to late day though- just sayin'

- There is no period in calculating VWAP- 2 SD from VWAP means 2 Stand Devs of the High/Low away from VWAP which is volume weighted average price. your workstation will likely print VWAP value and the bands as of the close of each bar- These are not bollinger bands as those are dependent upon a moving average

- You are the first person I have ever seen use balance points- I do use floor pivots based on RTH session (daily and weekly for context and synthetic support/resistance or targets). If you understand Pivots - they are a form of balance and symmetry for the voodoo seeker in all of us

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Old January 28th, 2016, 04:35 PM   #126 (permalink)
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Jan 28th

Market overview (16.15 CET)
- Asia mixed, overall neutral
- Europe is down, -1%
- Bonds are down, -2%
- Oil is up, +4%

ES
- Trading choppy below yesterday's VAL, currently trading within
- Small opening range, tight 1st half hour initial balance (less than 10 points)

Sentiment seems to be negative, I'm anticipating a downward day.
Breaking the 1914.50 level is important to turn sentiment positive again.

Significant price levels for today
- 1930.75 VAL since ATH
- 1914.50 HVN + naked VPOC
- 1883.00 S/R level during past couple of days
- 1864.00 Yesterday low
- 1804.25 Low since 2014


Trade 1: +2 points
- Pullback to significant price level
- Internals are all supporting a down move (with TRIN at 1.8)
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target at 1872 (overnight swingpoint)
- Breakeven at 5 points in profit
- Hard to not take 7 points profit when TRIN showed severe weakness, decided to stay in the trade. Moved stop to 2 points profit because I did not want to end this on breakeven.
- Hindsight: wrong decision and my initial profit target got hit later (missing 10 points profit)

Trade 2: -2.75 points
- Pullback to overnight low / IB low
- Internals seem to be supporting this move down, allthough TRIN made a higher low
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 1861.00 (just above S1)
- Closed when market went up
- Hindsight: good decision

Trade 3: -3.5 points
- Pullback to VAL
- Internals are supporting the move down
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points, profit target 1861.00 (just above S1)
- Closed it when market went up
- Hindsight: good decision

Trade 4: 0 points
- Pullback to significant price
- Internals are supporting the move up, oil is going up
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1895 (just below IB high)
- Closed at breakeven
- Hindsight: good decision

Trade 5: -3 points
- Breakthrough yesterday's VPOC+VWAP
- Waited for entry until inv. VIX made a higher high
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1895 (just below IB high)
- Chicked out when TICK, TRIN en VIX suddenly jumped down, followed by price going down
- Hindsight: good decision

Trade 6: 0 points
- Pullback to significant price level, entry on PP
- Internals looking good
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points, profit target 1895 (just below IB high)
- Stopped out at breakeven

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Old January 28th, 2016, 05:45 PM   #127 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
Hi fellow-traders,

after reading the positive feedback on the journals kept here on futures.io, I decided to setup my own journal.
The reason I'm keeping a journal is because I would like to receive feedback from experienced traders to make the necessary changes (if any) in my behaviour or trading rules to reach my goal.

My goal is to become consistently profitable on the SIM for at least 3 months in row.
Only then, I will make the next step to trading live.

It feels like I'm close to getting profitable since I have clear rules, developed a "sense" of the market and am able to follow my rules religiously. However, I have enough experience to know that it is not that easy and the point of profitablility might be far away also.

I'm able to trade 1 morning session and 2-3 afternoon sessions in a week only. I know this is not much and it extents my learning curve significantly, but it's the best I can do currently with a fulltime job and family life.

GP


hello gruttepier. way to go with the journal, you're a braver man than me. a consistent and methodical approach is what i personally deem as professional, and you appear to have that. remember it's a marathon and not a sprint, good luck

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Old January 29th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #128 (permalink)
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Jan 29th

Started late and jumped on an opportunity.
Did not have time for proper analysing market context....(yeah, I know that I should not trade without having this done)

Anyway, all indices and oil are slightly up.
Market is trading above yesterday's high and VWAP/VPOC's are higher than yesterday.

Sentiment is slightly positive.

Significant price levels for today
- 1930.75 VAL since ATH
- 1914.50 HVN + naked VPOC
- 1902.25 Proven SR level past 2 weeks
- 1883.50 Yesterday's VWAP, SR level, (near) pivot point

Trade 1: +1.5 points
- Pullback to significant price level (yesterday high + significant SR level)
- Internals are mixed
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1913.50 (just below important price level)
- Wife is calling for dinner. Closed the trade....missing the anticipated run to profit target

Trade 2: +3 points
- Pullback to previous swingpoint, just below HOD and R2 pivot
- Missed the entry at 1916, chased it and had a sloppy entry
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points, profit target 1929.00 (just below important price level)
- Did not want to be in the trade after 21.00 CET (3 pm), closed when a pullback started to happen. Can't remember that previous time that I've been in a trade for 1.5 hours.
- We'll save the 1930 level for next week

Will post the January stats this weekend.
Small peek: Profitable month with my new method, +15.75 points, and lots of room for improvement.

Have a nice weekend all.
GP

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Old January 31st, 2016, 01:16 PM   #129 (permalink)
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January results & analysis

Entry management
- In 66% of the trades, I pick correct entries.
- Half are atleast 5 point moves and 1 out of 5 trades are at least 10 point moves
- Nothing wrong with my entries (at this point of my learning curve)
- I will not make any changes here

Stop management
- In cases that I do pick a wrong entry (resulting in at least 5 point move in the wrong direction), I get stopped out in 93% of the time. In none of the stopped trades, I find that the stops were too tight.
- This means that my stop system is working
- I will not make any changes regarding stop management

Break even management
- I've made some changes in the 2nd week of January regarding my break even management, so the analysis is not very accurate
- Since 2nd week of Jan, I put the stop to breakeven after 4 or 5 points in profit. The analysis show that in 60%, this is not a good idea because I missed at least a 5 point move
- I will stop with break even management and not move stops to break even
- When I was developing automated strategies, I also found that moving stops to breakeven had a negative effect on average profit per trade

Exit management
- I close nearly half of all my trades manually (--> emotionally) and not by a predefined stop or profit target order
- The analysis shows that in 60% I made the wrong decision because price went at least 5 points further in my favor
- On 2 occasions I even missed a 20+ move. I dream about banking a 20 point move one day...
- Except for 1 trade, I missed all (total of 8) 10+ moves in January
- So...surprise surprise...I don't let my winners run
- I need to make some changes here because apparently my exit management determines if I'm profitable or not:
(a) As long as price is making HH/HL's, I will remain in the trade and have the trade closed by the profit target order
(b) I will not close winning trades based on internals anymore. In the Spoo thread someone mentioned TICK exhaustion, this is exactly what freaked my out the day before missing a nice 10+ run (I consider a 10 point move a runner)

Looking forward to February!

BTW, note what a difference my new method since January makes as opposed to my previous 1.5 year trading #proud #inletcap

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Last edited by GruttePier; January 31st, 2016 at 04:57 PM. Reason: typo in stats
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Old January 31st, 2016, 03:02 PM   #130 (permalink)
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I wish I could somehow make your journal visible to everyone who is struugling or looking for direction. @Big Mike. You have done all the work, kept excellent records and have been open to changes. Hats off to you. No BS- it is very hard to just abandon practices we have grown used to but you did and you are seeing rewards and learning everyday. I like that you are not in a hurry to make a killing and seem more focused on process. You are on the right track and everything is just beginning to come together- watch over the next few months how trades become nothing more than place trade and manage profit or loss while keeping an eye on day structure, internals, etc for clues. Your first 20 will come but focus on maximizing what's available and rational in the meantime. Great job!

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