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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable
Started:October 11th, 2015 (12:20 PM) by GruttePier Views / Replies:37,683 / 707
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GruttePier's trading journal to getting profitable

Old January 6th, 2016, 01:18 PM   #91 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
1) extreme prints (600+/- May signal trend continuation whereas 900+ could be exhaustion, etc)

OK, I get it. I experimented with this today and see what you mean. Thanks!


Inletcap View Post
2) divergences vs the price levels on the past two or more swing highs/lows or vs past few bars

Let's see if I understand you correctly with an example.
Take the 1992.25 price level (yesterday low + 1st hour high) of today which was tested on 10.29am and 11.05am today. Suppose it is 11.19am now and price is approaching the 1992.25 price level again. If TICK is higher now than it was when approaching on 10.29am and 11.05am, do you consider it likely that price will break through this time and anticipate on break through instead of a failure? I know there are more factors in deciding what to do, but let's consider TICK only.


Inletcap View Post
3) cumulative- simply looking to see if overall there is buying (staying above zero or cumulative line climbing) or selling ( opposite buying) pressure as the day progresses

Clear.


Inletcap View Post
I like to look at a histogram of a two period moving average of the typical price(h+l+c /3) of 1 minute interval for divergences, continuation, confirmation and extremes. The histo will also give a clue as to what cumulative reading likely is by applying common sense- if histo is greater than zero most of the day- C_tick is rising and vice versa.

OK, thanks.

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Old January 6th, 2016, 01:40 PM   #92 (permalink)
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On iPad at lunc so quoting is difficult-
Concerning divergences- if price were making or testing new HOD but tick was backing off where it was when HOD was made then buying pressure is not as strong and a reversal trade may be the way to go. Keep in mind if tick was very high the first time it may just be a case that that move was exhaustive and this time the (say 600 print) is signaling continuation. So, reading tick is very discretionary and subject to ones bias which must be accounted for. When VIX and tick are diverging I consider this a call to action by lightening the load or reversing.... Think of tick as a sentiment indicator.

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Old January 6th, 2016, 04:13 PM   #93 (permalink)
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Jan 6th


Significant price levels to watch today:
- 1992.25 Yesterday low + today's balance point
- 1980.25 Monday's low
- 1960.00 VAL since ATH

Trade 1: +1 point
- Pullback from resistance at significant price level 1992.25 (yesterday low + 1st hour high)
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points
- Decided to close the trade when price action got slow and TICK went up

Trade 2: -3 points
- Break of resistance on significant price level 1992.25 (yesterday low + 1st hour high)
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points. Heavy breakout, TICK around 600, got filled 3 ticks higher than the limit
- Stopped out
- When stopped out, I realized that my stop was 1 tick above the VAH. Price did indeed find support on the VAH and moved into my anticipated direction. I should have identified the VAH support level earlier and widened the stop. Guess this is experience

Trade 3: +2.5 points
- Break of significant price level 1980.25 (Monday's low)
- I knew it would fall through this level, confirmed by low TICK (<-500) and high TRIN (>2.00)
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points
- Profit target on 1st hour low
- Yeah! Spot on. Was in doubt to stay in the trade and take profit on the S3 level/LOD, but when price started to hesitate I dediced to take the profit and re-enter on a possible pullback to VAL/1980.25 (which didn't happen in hindsight).

Trade 4: +3 points
- Pullback from significant price level (LOD, S3)
- Long 1 contract, risk 3 points
- Took profit when price started to hestitate around the previous swing high
- Risky trade because TICK did not show any signs of being positive, but I could not ignore a bounce of this price level. What finally convinced me was TRIN suddenly went lower

I'm trading price levels instead of patterns for a couple of days now. Allthough not in profit (yet), I must say that it feels good. The majority of the setups that I identified did work out. It was only that stops were too tight, or not seeing a significant support level, etc. which prevented me to make a profit out of it. Switching from patterns to price levels might seem a small change. However, I need to get used to the (for me) wide stops, trust my gut in absence of clear entry rules and trading with 1 contract which feels like "all-or-nothing attempts". Also, the TICK and TRIN internals are new. The coming period is a learning phase during which I need to develop my confidence in trading price levels. At this stage though, I should not focus on P&L.

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Last edited by GruttePier; January 6th, 2016 at 04:21 PM.
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Old January 6th, 2016, 05:34 PM   #94 (permalink)
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Here are some of the divergences from today- I totally missed the bottom call (damnit!)

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It's important to note that divergences are not "always" present and sometimes when they are present they don't signal anything. I focus more on them when the values are at extremes or near key reversal levels. The high of the day and the Low of the day showed excellent information- Note the market was above/below the vwap 2 SD bands(overbought/oversold) and Tick values were near the high/low lines on my indicator(extremes) when readings were accurate. The above chart is a 1 minute chart with my 2 period moving average of typical price of $Tick in the lower pane displayed as a histogram.

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Old January 7th, 2016, 04:06 PM   #95 (permalink)
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Jan 7th

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
Rushed home to be able to trade for 1 hour.

Important levels to trade:
- 1947.25 - 1935.75 Gapzone of October 5th
- 1914.25, HVN since ATH

Trade 1: +1 point
- Pullback from 1st hour low / VAL
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points
- Closed when I lost confidence since price was chopping around and not choosing direction. Ofcourse price dropped as soon as I stepped out of the trade, missing a very nice run of 6 points. Allthough I missed a lot of the move, this gives me confidence because I do see the setups and yet need to learn to manage them properly.

See the chart for a trade that I saw, but was in doubt if I should take it. Once price rose above the gap low of Oct 5th it was too late. A price & $tick divergence.

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Old January 7th, 2016, 11:50 PM   #96 (permalink)
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ESH6 closing trade


GruttePier View Post
Rushed home to be able to trade for 1 hour.

Important levels to trade:
- 1947.25 - 1935.75 Gapzone of October 5th
- 1914.25, HVN since ATH

Trade 1: +1 point
- Pullback from 1st hour low / VAL
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points
- Closed when I lost confidence since price was chopping around and not choosing direction. Ofcourse price dropped as soon as I stepped out of the trade, missing a very nice run of 6 points. Allthough I missed a lot of the move, this gives me confidence because I do see the setups and yet need to learn to manage them properly.

See the chart for a trade that I saw, but was in doubt if I should take it. Once price rose above the gap low of Oct 5th it was too late. A price & $tick divergence.

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Nice trading logic on this one GruttePier. I don't get to trade the close much either but was patiently waiting for this one. The 3:30 reversal hit at the low of the day, and I was still messing around with limit orders trying to get a good price on the way up, eventually did not want to chase farther. A buy stop would have been a better choice for me.

I was still thinking it may keep going up so I passed on the short.


John Carter's book "Mastering the Trade" has a chapter on this setup, he calls it the 3:52 play. If the 3:30 reversal happens he plans on fading it the other way at 3:52 and then closing the trade at 4:13. Like most such set-ups it seems to work great sometimes and not at all on others. Today 3:49 or 3:50 would have been better, but the reversal played out well.

His basic concept, many traders miss the 3:30 reversal, chase late, and then get stuck having to go the other way to close out before the end of the day.

Happy trading!

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Old January 8th, 2016, 06:03 AM   #97 (permalink)
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3:52 setup

Thanks for pointing me on this setup, I was not aware of it.
I watched a video on this setup where he explains how it works.

I generally donīt trade the last hour of the day. I find that price action gets unpredicatable (at least to me).
In the past, I've experimented a lot with automated trading and found that market behaviour becomes diffferent in the last hour and the strategies were underperforming.

Anyway, I stay away from the last hour.
Once it's 3 pm, I update my journal & stats, shutdown my trading pc and join my wife

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Old January 8th, 2016, 01:20 PM   #98 (permalink)
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Jan 8th

Significant price levels to watch:
- 1959.25. Yesterday's VAH + 2 day balance point
- 1936.50 - 1947.25 zone. Gap of October 5th
- 1915

Trade 1: -3.5 points
- Pullback from price level 1936.25 (VAL, globex open)
- Long 1 contract, risk 3.5 points given the high volatility (ATR 2.6)
- Stopped out
- Too bad, setup just didn't work. Would probably trade this setup again next time. Allthough I lost confidence earlier, I decided to stay in the trade given my experiences earlier this week about stepping out of a trade too early

Trade 2: -4 points
- Pullback to yesterday low and chop of 15 mins earlier
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points (just above yesterday's VAL)
- Stopped out. The price level was not significant enough -> no confluence

Trade 3: -1.75 points
- Pullback to significant price level (globex open, 1st hour low)
- Short 1 contract, risk 3 points
- Closed when price jumped higher

Trade 4: -3.25 points
- Re-entry of above setup
- Short 1 contract, risk 4 points
- Closed when price higher and TRIN went down heavilly

Not my day and will quit for today.
I was not in touch with the market, had no feel for direction, felt like I was chasing price and not using the internals (TICK and TRIN) correctly.
I was watching the internals closely though, but did not have the internals confirm direction first and then open a trade. I was gambling on a change of direction on specific price levels.

I find TRIN useful, it seems to be leading. Will get a data subscription on the VIX next week.

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Old January 11th, 2016, 04:09 PM   #99 (permalink)
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Jan 11th

Profit: +0.75 points

Significant price levels to watch today:
- 1937.75 Low of Oct 5th gap, VPOC of last Friday
- 1929.00 2 day balance point, 1st hour high and high of day sofar (15.30h)
- 1910.00 Friday's low, balance point today (at 15.30h)

Today's goal: have entries confirmed by market internals.

Trade 1: + 2 points
- breakthrough pricelevel 1910.00 (yesterday low, globex open)
- 1 contract short, risk 4 points (stop just above 1st hour low)
- breakeven at 3 points in profit
- Closed when all internals looked bad (net issues going up, net volume going up, TRIN below 0.9 and TICK couple 400 positive

Trade 2: -4 points
- Pullback from pricelevel 1910 (yesterday low, globex open)
- 1 contract short, risk 4 points (just above 1st hour low)
- Stopped out at highest point (!), missed a nice swing down

Trade 3: -0.25
- Breakthrough pricelevel 1910 and VAL
- Jumped on the gun with market order instead of limit order, resulting in a bad entry price (shouldn't do that again)
- 1 contract short, risk 3 points
- Stopped out on breakeven (1 tick slippage)

Trade 4: + 2 points
- Divergence between price and VIX. Allthough price was not at a significant level, I could not resist taking this trade because the divergence was so clear.
- 1 contract long, risk 3 points
- Closed when I freaked out on the large sudden selling. Then price went to my anticipated profit target (couple of ticks below VWAP). Missed another 4 points of profit here. Patience my friend...

Trade 5: +1 points
- Bounce of significant price level + VPOC
- Divergence with VIX (VIX is going up, price is staying behind)
- 1 contract short, risk 3 points
- Closed when I no longer didn't trusted it

I have a 1 minute ES chart with the VIX, TRIN and TICK setup since today.
A couple of time I could see a very clear divergence between price and VIX followed by a change in price in the direction of the VIX.
This happened for example at 19.05, resulting in price bouncing off from a significant price level and making a drop of 18 points. Also, I took trade #4 entirely based on the VIX divergence. VIX seems like a powerful tool. I'm anxious to study more of it.

Short evaluation of my new method:
- Prepping the trading session with looking at the overall context and identifying significant price levels for the day works well. Many times the identified price levels do play an important role during the session
- I'm stepping out of trades too early, missing the home runs
- VIX seems to have a lot of potential
- Friday was a shitty day

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Old January 11th, 2016, 06:01 PM   #100 (permalink)
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I would bet that if you were trading more than 1 contracts you would let 1 ride and begin to believe that price will move once you saw it happen a few times. Being a little harsh here- the Range today was better than 36 points- there were several 10 point swings- you never made or lost 5 pts on a single trade... Think about that tonight! If you want to have the remote possibility of making serious money you must have the will to let your trades work and the will to be wrong often. If you take small profits, you will be destroyed in the long run by commissions, slippage and your losses because you are not capitalizing on your winners. It's not fun watching profits disappear but it is so much more rewarding when they begin compounding. If you are undercapitalized, switch to a non leveraged investment vehicle immediately. All that said- good job developing your own style and trading where you want to trade!

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