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Aussie 'Share Price Index' ( SPI) Journal
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Aussie 'Share Price Index' ( SPI) Journal

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

Aussie 'Share Price Index' ( SPI) Journal

Hi to other traders interested in the SPI index.

My goal is to become a Pro trader in as quick a time possible. I won't put time limits because that's not possible to know.
I wish to keep a running diary of my trades, before and after analysis. This will enable some kind of record, and expose my strengths and weaknesses. I also wish to share my approach with other traders interested.

My goal is to make 60-80 points per week. Eventually I want to build up the contracts traded to at least $100 per point.
If I can consistently do this, I should be able to build up my small account to a reasonable size...I want to start with as small a capital input as possible, because I believe with the help of leverage, and an ability to trade well is all one needs to make good money. If I blow up a few of these small accounts, I'm not really that concerned because it is still a small initial investment. The learning process is worth it.

Anyway, If you click on the word document you can view a more detailed chart.

I will record all my trades, I won't just cherry pick the winners.What's hte point of that right?
I will record my thinking with each trade.

Thanks for dropping by and following my link .....

Australian traders, please post comments in the relevant forum link under the SPI etc


Last edited by Zentrader2010; October 4th, 2015 at 08:03 AM.
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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
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Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received


This trade was executed due to an AB C correction that played out the whole day ( leg A down in the day session in australia, and C leg at the start of US session overnight in Sydney).....I noticed that there was a -83 point leg A down, then a shallow leg B....given the high that formed at stiff resistance around 5100 had formed a multiday triple top and local double top, it was not unreasonable to assume a fairly big correction given the history of this contract. It has been quite volatile of late with large swings either direction between about 4900 and 5100. over a few weeks.
I was not, however expecting it to form the down C leg quite so fast, maybe early next week. The US employment numbers set up an opportunity. I watch out for symmetrical corrections, it's double drive theory ( developed by Bryce Gilmore). I expected that:
a. The next C leg down would not fall much further than another -83 points from Leg B high without at least a scalpers correction up
b. The 62 Fibonacci retracement would form support of previous larger leg up
c. The minor double bottom would also help form some support in at least the short-term.
I watched this level, it overshot it by about 6 points, but given the strong momentum down of previous 2-3 bars I thought that may be possible, and watched to see a reversal bar form before considering a trade. It recovered the expected -83 points around 4970, so I went aggressively long 30 mini's. I was going for a bounce scalp of no more than 20 points, for a higher probability trade than going for a swing trade of 40-60 ( which I generally prefer). I prefer to under-estimate a move, and have a higher probability of winning with more contracts than less contracts and bigger move. Also, I was getting tired, it was around 11:30 pm Australian time, so Only wanted a quick in & out. I didn't want to hold the trade over the long weekend ( in Australia).
Anyway, and being bounced out of the trade on a strong down bar, I re-entered at a similar price after a micro - triple bottom formed around,
4965 lows. I watched it break out, and nearly hit my limit order of 20 points but fell short slightly. I figured I'd be happy to settle for 15 points profit, and bailed. It went 25 points before correcting.
lesson ? Given I was tired, it was always a scalp, but I could have held out longer for bigger points by moving my stop loss to break-even after the 15 point move, and setting at least a 30 point swing. But there you go......next time.


[/ATTACH][/ATTACH]http://www.evernote.com/l/AdlA5_SmT5hGD5dBHWumn1SJp1NETTj37IM/

Evernotes is better as you can follow the who reasoning of trade - start from bottom of link and work to the top.
Technical trading Notes written inside images


Last edited by Zentrader2010; October 4th, 2015 at 09:01 AM.
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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

macro analysis pre - US open Monday

http://www.evernote.com/l/AdnRnF5S0VlG2KmVQyS-RNYYK1hxelzuzNw/
See attachment for my take on current SPI market; and potential trade set ups:

Later came into 'sell zone' and made a perfect + 224 Double drive at an old high forming a DT,
so after waiting for a reversal bar I sold short for a scalp - made only +8, but risky stuff....
as 2 am in SYD going to bed 11 am NY

: )
http://www.evernote.com/l/AdnRnF5S0VlG2KmVQyS-RNYYK1hxelzuzNw/


Last edited by Zentrader2010; October 5th, 2015 at 12:00 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

Cash market open Tues in Australia - made a scalp only

Today I was looking for a reversal from a larger degree (60 minute)double top, and strong +188 double drive
target.....obvious selling at these top of range levels came in.....I under-estimated the full extent of selling
which was formed a bear channel most of afternoon, and capitulated down to low of day....not a good strategy to try pick the low, and the smaller degree ABC correction -43 Double drive did not find support....I averaged down with 3 buy orders and managed to gain only 6 points by the close of futures market at 4:30 pm Sydney ....

I am not happy with how I traded though as I should have got short, I expected after a strong bull trend the double top would cause a bear trap, but I was wrong. I wasn't really paying enough attention to the price action signals.

I need to avoid doubling down to save myself in future as won't always work....

http://www.evernote.com/l/Adlw7D9rX2VA2KEd1y-hU24l0qxt8LIePQE/

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  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

Fight with GF - leads to reaslization about trading !!!

Hi,
This journal entry is a little different than some technical manifesto of how to scalp.... You see, I had a bad
argument with my girlfriend about bringing my son around ( ya know, wicked step mum scenario), and I realized something profound about my trading.....Now go out on a limb here please. It's gonna sound strange,
but I had a few wines ( as ya do after such an argument)....I was looking at my Aussie stock index in my 'seeing
red' mood, and PRESTO - I realized IT. I know that sounds silly, but let me humor you. I've been trading for over 10 years - and I've tried trading every, and I mean everything. Needless to say, I've lost my fair share of money over the years. The GFC,.....even the recent August melt-down got me good.
One account was down so much, I had about $372 left after I dabbled in oil....really hit my account hard from about 3 K. Anyway, to cut a long story short - I traded that small account back up to 3 K in about 4 weeks. Don't believe me?
I will send you the brokerage statements ! I decided, Oil is not for me.....I will trade something I really am familiar with,
and that is the AUSSIE stock market index. It is the main thing I've followed for years for my stock-trading. I even developed a computerized system using metastock, which I traded making a fairly good profit, in 3 months I made about 40 %, I even talked some friends into investing their money too. Then I was looking at the AUSSIE index one day a few months back before the mini - crash that hit, I'm sure you ALL remember those few days ! I had this sinking feeling in GUT, and I knew something was wrong ! I called my friends, I told them, take back your 5 K plus profit, and run ! The markets gonna crash. They listend to me, and a few days later, WHAM, it did. Go hte GUT !
I, however, was long some oil stock, and even long OIL, and I got hit bad.

Lesson 1.......only trade what you know or are familiar with !

So, being a relatively sensitive chap, I decided to follow my own lesson .....NO REALLY !
So, I did just that......I my WONDERFUL stock market computerized system, which gave me so much CONFIDENCE just because it was computerised ( OOOOOHHHHH)......was actually flawed. WHY you ask ?

Lesson 2......ALL STOCKS are not immune to the movements of the main market index !
Not exactly rocket science, you say, but it really hit me hard. I put the stock index alongside my stocks I was trading and BAM....it was clear as daylight. There WAS correlation ! Don't be stupid man, we all know that right?
Well do we? I certainly didn't really GET IT, until that moment.

So.....what did I do? I decided to STOP trading individual stocks....why trade them when the main market index is what moved them anyway right? The big stocks anyway.....

lesson 3....Trade what you are really trading.......I was actually trading the stock index, thinking I was trading the individual stocks. So why not just trade the underlying INDEX....so I decided, THAT IS WHAT I WILL TRADE>
I WILL SPECIALIZE !!!

NOW after arguing with my girlfriend, and AFTER trading that small account of 372 back up to 3000 in 4 weeks but JUST FOCUSING ON WHAT I KNOW.....via mostly large scalps or small swings on the Aussie market ot SPI futures...
I thought about what was important to me in relation to my son, and my girlfriend....this will require lateral thinking but stay with me.......I was mad at my GF because she wanted a night alone from children ( her own son was at her Ex's) and my son was with me tonight. But I was forced to take him to the movies ( despite not being happy with that etc )......when I came home, we had a fight over it.....and I decided to then ( seeing red) sit down at my computer and look at my charts. I missed trading that day due to work, and I thought I missed making about 20 points scalping. THEN I saw something incredible ! I watched how I'd bought contracts near the LOWS OF A MULTI-DAY MOVE ! I SAW THAT I SOLD OUT FOR A MERE 10 POINTS ! THEN i SAW THE MARKET MOVE UP OVER 2-3 DAYS ABOUT 300 POINTS ! I HAD SETTLED FOR 10 POINTS, AND MISSED THE MEAT IN THE SANDWICH OF THE MOVE,
I COULD HAVE EASILY TAKEN 200 POINTS OUT OF THAT MOVE ! BUT I SETTLED FOR 10 POINTS ....do you know the feeling that is similar too? I'll tel you, its like comparing the love for your child ( 200 points) to the little moments of pleasre you get from your girlfriend ( 10 points * x)......no contest really. THATS WHY I GOT IT. this lesson.

lesson 4......GO FOR the real love......GO FOR THE BIGGER POINTS IN A MOVE !!! IF I am a fairly good scalper and can pick bottoms pretty well in a swing move, why not just hold on for a much bigger profit......???

Anyway, these are my 4 golden rules NOW, and I hope you got something out of my little post......
perhaps my girlfriend won't forgive me, and I'll move on....but that's ok, I still have my SON and that's where the BIG POINTS are........


Last edited by Zentrader2010; October 7th, 2015 at 09:25 AM.
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  #7 (permalink)
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I think its important to have a wife or girlfriend who is understanding of your trading. Trading can be stressfull at times and the last thing you want is an argument with the wife or girlfriend where you are trying to justify your trading and it will screw up your mental state. been there done that.

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  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

I agree


US Bond Trader View Post
I think its important to have a wife or girlfriend who is understanding of your trading. Trading can be stressfull at times and the last thing you want is an argument with the wife or girlfriend where you are trying to justify your trading and it will screw up your mental state. been there done that.


Thanks for you words...In the cold hard light of morning....I realized I was trading under emotional duress .....

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  #9 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

8 OCT +10 scalp in US session

Below is a link to my evernotes diagrams showing a 10 point short scalp at a bull channel line overshoot,
I entered without a signal bar though which is not good, but managed to get high within 10 points.
In hindsight, I could have made 35 points, but I was alseep SYD time - so happy with a scalp @ $25 per point.

http://www.evernote.com/l/AdnWPI8R4UtM3483eXBRjW8Z5SPMfsxGURY/

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  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: E signal
Broker/Data: AMP, Stage 5
Favorite Futures: AP -SFE; FESX; ES; 6A, 6N,6E,6B,6C,6J
 
Posts: 42 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 20 given, 24 received

9 OCT made +28 points @ $10 mini's


HI,
Felt good about this trade, I went with the trend, obviously a strong bull with US open....I got most of my of my ideas for this trade AL brooks courses....He mentions that after a spike up, can get a channel Up in some cases with narrow range which grinds up so that bullish signal bars look weak, and you're forever waiting for a good pull back that hardly comes until you think it can't go much higher.....but the counter-trend signals look better sucking people into shorts prematurely. That's exactly what I saw in today's chart....I thought the $SPX needed to test old highs too which can act like a magnet as bulls hold off on taking profits, and bears step aside until its reached.

This analysis shows that trading can be counter -intuitive and must trade what you see....

http://www.evernote.com/l/Adnon_l08YdOLpwxPmiR57UmHF00EiBaL-s/

Anyway, my scalps and small swings are adding up to a good week....reached my 70 points target for the week...

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