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After avoiding trading today after the big spike up, because I didn't want to be tempted to short-sell prematurely,
I finished work early and had about 1/2 hour left in the market - then I saw a possible short scalp on a 2nd leg down
from a short-term top.......I sold on a close of a bear bar too close to the mini bottom of the small range, and counted on a follow through break out down, but it didn't quite reach the 14 point limit, as the bar reversed I scratched the trade for only +7 points. I should have sold with limit order above previous bar for an outside bull bar failure, not on the close of a bear bar if counter-trend scalping....obviously too early for a swing short until more evidence...
Hi,
I was working today so was difficult to watch market....but managed to enter one trade short large scalp to the GAP fill point from Thursday' s close.
read the evernotes link page from bottom to top for order of charts etc
This was a tough day - lots of false breakouts in a tight trading range going nowhere fast....initially a spike down from new high, then nothing....lost about -$200 getting in and out many times trying to get short for a breakout down, but never happened....half of this was brokerage - see thumbnail for larger view
AUSSIE DAY SESSION
27 OCT
US OPEN
This was even tougher - I tried to get short at bottom of that range from day session ( exact revenge for my losses),
and it bounced strongly, BAD place to go short and bottom of a range...I then averaged up twice, and didn't feel comfy...account overdrawn too much and traded way too big ( broke my rules)...I was lucky to come out +$800 ahead
and got break-even on first short.....lesson? I won't trade multiples of my standard position size again ( times hundred )
I like to run some different scenarios - so if they show up, I am prepared to trade them....
If they spike on news, hard to catch otherwise....I adapt what's happening in the ES futures to my charts in the AP ( SPI) and helps with strategy for the session ....
next chart is SPI, on same time frame and how I would trade it tonight based on it's own Price action that mirrors ES movements....
Here is 30 min view showing game plan tonight...it may not work then have to revise as PA develops......of course......I was tempted to BUY at mini DB area but momentum is now down and could get ugly by the open of tomorrows Aussie CASH often GAPS down....so want to get short but higher
Hi,
I'm back again after taking 1 week off to review my strategies, and get refreshed.
Today was a down-trend, I couldn't get short as it was dropping fast, and selling big down bars was tough given
it was about to complete 2 legs down ( ABC) correction after yesterday reversed the big recovery bear rally of Tuesday.
I am of 2 minds. Buy a higher low on bigger time frame for a scalp - small swing. Or wait for a possible lower low and swing larger ( lower probability) ....but as I'm here to make money, I decided to try buying a bounce
on 5-15 minute time frame. The trouble is, how can be certain you're buying near enough to the low to not be stopped out, yet get a good hard reversal after an exhaustive sell. This is one of my favorite strategies as my targets are generally realistic in terms of how far up such a profit taking bear rally my go...I often find the first bounce of the day is the best, so waiting for a higher low second entry just doesn't work that often as a day trader, and often get a second leg down to a lower low instead or get caught in a triangle or sideways nothing for the day....so I try buying the first bounce as covers the most points up in most cases. I use the previous largest rallies in teh down trend to work out mathematically where to take profit....I also compare the average range for the SPI which is about 70 points on a normal day, up to 110 on a big day, and much less on small days....so if it's fallen on the AP ( day ) contract between 80 and 100 points, I start to look hard for signs of bears losing on scalps below the previous low. If they can't make 10 points any longer, I start buying aggressively....of course, I'm often wrong so I start buying in small amounts ( 10 mini's)....and every signal for a bull such as buying limit under new lows, or a H2 or H 3 bull signal I will buy more, often the lower I start scaling in larger ( 20 mini's)...until I hit my limit of buying which is under 100 mini's ( $100 per point). My rough rule of thumb is that I can't be overdrawn more points than my profit target which I adjust through-out the trade, it may start at 25 points if trading small, but get as low as 10 points once I hit full size.....today was a typical example of how it played out.
It can be stressful trading this way sometimes, but most of the time I find it works. Otherwise I have to pull the plug at a stop of 20 points no matter what happens. I don't think this method is for the faint - hearted, and I am aware it's quite high risk, but I worked no more than 3 hours today and made good profit, before others just dismiss it outright as stupid money management. If I have 7 successful sessions out of 10, I'm still ahead about
3 sessions which is plenty of $$$$ overall compared to some more careful methods ( where always stopped out and death by a thousand cuts etc) ....
read from bottom of link to the top for correct order of journal
After looking at the points of profit I've missed this week by being a day trader, it is a frustrating fact.
last few weeks I've been profitable, don't get me wrong....but then I'm re-thinking the money management
by letting partial profits run and turn that portion of the trade into a multi-day run with a break-even stop loss initially, then a loose trailing stop. For instance, yesterday I took +20 points ( * 30 mini contracts) from the 5010 area breakout. That's $600 which is nice with my account size. However, the market kept going and I was not keen on re-entering higher so late in the day session. I could have easily taken partial profits on half, and let the other half run....by tomorrow morning my profit just on the second portion ( in a new bull) would be 80 points higher or $800
with no risk as break-even stop loss. Sure, I'm risking open profits of $300, but the potential gain of nearly 3 times
would give a profit on the same trade so far of $1100, which is almost double the profit. even if it only works half the time I would be ahead a lot more. Also, once in such large open profit, I would be willing to pyramid further positions by adding another 10 mini on pullbacks which could be even more profitable.
As day traders we work so hard to get into a trade, it seems a shame to miss out on all those potential points by taking premature profit targets and presuming the trade is at risk when often it runs further. So I am going to adopt this strategy and see if it helps my bottom line :
Had a good trade today, managed to get a buy order in on a pullback of rally today and it happened to be about only a 1/3 of the move up so profited well today. Trying my luck now to re-enter 30 points lower. I really don't want to miss the potential xmas rally so may have to re-enter a little higher if miss a pullback. At least I have some buffer profits
in case itover-shoots re-entry price, but really I want to get 2 large contracts on ( 2 * $25 per point) for a good run up over the next 4-8 weeks.
read from bottom of internet link to top of my running journal for this trade and plan for xmas trend trade.
Note : I normally day trade so this is a separate longer term strategy with a different account I initiated this week. see previous post for my reasons.
Sorry,
was busy with other things, so catching up on links of previous weeks: All in all good trading results and account up
about $3500 in those few weeks for my day trading account ( note: does not include previous post about trend trading overnight hold account strategy X mas rally )
)